Cumulative Payments Through the Earned Income Tax Credit Program in Childhood and Criminal Conviction During Adolescence in the US.

Importance: Childhood poverty is associated with poor health and behavioral outcomes. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), first implemented in 1975, is the largest cash transfer program for working families with low income in the US. Objective: To assess whether cumulative EITC payments received during childhood are associated with the risk of criminal conviction during adolescence. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, the analytic sample consisted of US children enrolled in the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth. The children were born between 1979 and 1998 and were interviewed as adolescents (age 15-19 years) between 1994 and 2016. Data analyses were performed from May 2021 to September 2022. Exposure: Cumulative simulated EITC received by the individual's family from birth through age 14 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was dichotomous, self-reported conviction for a crime during adolescence (age 14-18 years). A cumulative, simulated measure of mean EITC benefits received by a child's family from birth through age 14 years was derived from federal, state, and family-size differences in EITC eligibility and payments during the study period to capture EITC benefit variation due to differences in policy parameters but not endogenous factors such as changes in household income. Logistic regression models with fixed effects for state and year and robust SEs clustered by mother estimated relative risk of adolescent conviction. Models were adjusted for state-, mother-, and child-level covariates. Results: The analytical sample consisted of 5492 adolescents born between 1979 and 1998; 2762 (50.3%) were male, 1648 (30.0%) were Black, 1125 (20.5%) were Hispanic, and 2719 (49.5%) were not Black or Hispanic. Each additional $1000 of EITC received during childhood was associated with an 11% lower risk of self-reported criminal conviction during adolescence (adjusted odds ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84-0.95). Adjusted risk differences were larger among boys (-14.2 self-reported convictions per 1000 population [95% CI, -22.0 to -6.3 per 1000 population]) than among girls (-6.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, -10.7 to -1.6 per 1000 population]). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that income support from the EITC may be associated with reduced youth involvement with the criminal justice system in the US. Cost-benefit analyses of the EITC should consider these longer-term and indirect outcomes.

Short-Term Effects of Tax Credits on Rates of Child Maltreatment Reports in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Poverty and low income are associated with increased risk for child maltreatment. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Child Tax Credit (CTC) are among the largest antipoverty programs in the United States. We estimated associations between income transfer payments via the EITC and CTC and child maltreatment reports in the period shortly after families receive payments from these programs. METHODS: We linked weekly EITC and CTC refund data from the Internal Revenue Service to state-specific child maltreatment report data from 48 states and the District of Columbia during the 2015 through 2018 tax seasons (January - April). We leveraged the natural experiment of a legislated change in the timing of EITC and CTC transfer payments to low-income families and quasi-experimental methods to estimate the association between EITC and CTC payments and child maltreatment reports. RESULTS: EITC and CTC payments were associated with lower state-level rates of child maltreatment reports. For each additional $1000 in per-child EITC and CTC tax refunds, state-level rates of reported child maltreatment declined in the week of and 4 weeks following refund payments by an overall estimated 5.0% (95% confidence interval = 2.3%-7.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Federal income assistance programs are associated with immediate reductions in child maltreatment reporting. These results are particularly relevant at this time, as expansions to such programs continue to be discussed at the state and federal levels.

Association of State-Level Earned Income Tax Credits With Rates of Reported Child Maltreatment, 2004-2017.

Poverty is an important predictor of child maltreatment. Social policies that strengthen the economic security of low-income families, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), may reduce child maltreatment by impeding the pathways through which poverty leads to it. We used variations in the presence and generosity of supplementary EITCs offered at the state level and administrative child maltreatment data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) to examine the effect of EITC policies on state-level rates of child maltreatment from 2004 through 2017. Two-way fixed effects models indicated that a 10-percentage point increase in the generosity of refundable state EITC benefits was associated with 241 fewer reports of neglect per 100,000 children (95% Confidence Interval [CI] [-449, -33]). An increase in EITC generosity was associated with fewer reports of neglect both among children ages 0-5 (-324 per 100,000; 95% CI [-582, -65]) and children ages 6-17 (-201 per 100,000; 95% CI [-387, -15]). Findings also suggested associations between the EITC and reductions in other types of maltreatment (physical abuse, emotional abuse); however, those did not gain statistical significance. Economic support policies may reduce the risk of child maltreatment, especially neglect, and improve child wellbeing.