Cell-free fetal DNA screening in the USA: a cost analysis of screening strategies.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether implementation of primary cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) screening would be cost-effective in the USA and to evaluate potential lower-cost alternatives. METHODS: Three strategies to screen for trisomy 21 were evaluated using decision tree analysis: 1) a primary strategy in which cffDNA screening was offered to all patients, 2) a contingent strategy in which cffDNA screening was offered only to patients who were high risk on traditional first-trimester screening and 3) a hybrid strategy in which cffDNA screening was offered to all patients ≥ 35 years of age and only to patients < 35 years who were high risk after first-trimester screening. Four traditional screening protocols were evaluated, each assessing nuchal translucency (NT) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) along with either free or total beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (ß-hCG), with or without nasal bone (NB) assessment. RESULTS: Utilizing a primary cffDNA screening strategy, the cost per patient was 1017 US$. With a traditional screening protocol using free ß-hCG, PAPP-A and NT assessment as part of a hybrid screening strategy, a contingent strategy with a 1/300 cut-off and a contingent strategy with a 1/1000 cut-off, the cost per patient was 474, 430 and 409 US$, respectively. Findings were similar using the other traditional screening protocols. Marginal cost per viable case detected for the primary screening strategy as compared to the other strategies was 3-16 times greater than the cost of care for a missed case. CONCLUSIONS: Primary cffDNA screening is not currently a cost-effective strategy. The contingent strategy was the lowest-cost alternative, especially with a risk cut-off of 1/1000. The hybrid strategy, although less costly than primary cffDNA screening, was more costly than the contingent strategy.

Impact of nuchal translucency credentialing by the FMF, the NTQR or both on screening distributions and performance.

OBJECTIVE: In the USA, both The Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) and the Nuchal Translucency Quality Review Program (NTQR) have operated education, review and credentialing for physicians and sonographers for the measurement of nuchal translucency (NT). We sought to assess differences in the distribution of NT measurements based upon the system from which the operator obtained their education, review and credentialing. METHODS: 398 311 NT measurements by 1541 sonographers who had performed ≥ 50 exams from July 2008 to June 2010 were grouped by organization. Differences between grouped measurements were assessed using analysis of variance of log(10) NT multiples of the median (MoM), with sonographer and organization as factors. RESULTS: MoM values were significantly lower (P ≤ 0.001) and SD was significantly higher (P < 0.001) for the NTQR group compared with the FMF group or those sonographers credentialed by both. The percentage of individuals with negative bias ≥ 10% was greater for the NTQR group (P < 0.001). The difference was less but still significant (P = 0.009) when bias was adjusted for by the overall median for the organization. CONCLUSIONS: Although NT MoM measurements were significantly lower and had a wider variance when obtained by the NTQR group, our data cannot distinguish between bias in training or the attributes of the participating sonographers in each program. With these large numbers, it is unlikely that patient characteristics could explain the discrepancy in distributions. Ongoing efforts to monitor sonographer performance with remediation for poor performers may reduce discrepancies between organizations.

Genetic sonography after first-trimester Down syndrome screening.

OBJECTIVE: Approximately 90% of Down syndrome cases are detected during first-trimester screening. We aimed to determine the potential effectiveness of second-trimester genetic sonography as a sequential screen for Down syndrome. METHODS: In this simulation study, published statistical parameters for first-trimester free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and nuchal translucency thickness, and second-trimester ultrasound markers (nuchal fold, hyperechoic bowel, short humerus, short femur, echogenic intracardiac focus, pyelectasis and major abnormality) were used to model the effectiveness of second-trimester genetic sonography combined with first-trimester screening. RESULTS: First-trimester combined screening alone resulted in a detection rate of 88.5% with a 4.2% false-positive rate. A follow-up genetic ultrasound examination in which only one sonographic marker was found and previous results were not taken into account would detect an additional 8% of Down syndrome cases for an additional false-positive rate of 13.2%. Using individual marker likelihood ratios to modify the first-trimester risk for screen-negative patients, genetic sonography detected an additional 6.1% of Down syndrome cases for an additional 1.2% false-positive rate, giving a total detection rate of 94.6% and a total false-positive rate of 5.4%. In a contingent protocol, in which genetic sonography would be performed only for patients with a first-trimester risk of between 1/300 and 1/2500, the detection rate was 4.8% and the false-positive rate was 0.7%, giving a total detection rate of 93.3% and a total false-positive rate of 4.9%. CONCLUSION: Second-trimester genetic sonography, if used properly, can be an effective sequential screen following first-trimester Down syndrome screening. Further studies on the role of the genetic sonogram as a follow-up to first-trimester combined screening are warranted.

First-trimester Down syndrome screening using dried blood biochemistry and nuchal translucency.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of free beta-hCG, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, and nuchal translucency in a prospective first-trimester prenatal screening study for Down syndrome and trisomy 18. METHODS: Risks were calculated for Down syndrome and trisomy 18 based on maternal age and biochemistry only (n = 10,251), nuchal translucency only (n = 5809), and the combination of nuchal translucency and biochemistry (n = 5809). RESULTS: The study population included 50 Down syndrome and 20 trisomy 18 cases. Nuchal translucency measurement was done on 33 Down syndrome and 13 trisomy 18 cases. Down syndrome screening using combined biochemistry and ultrasound resulted in a false-positive rate of 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.9%, 5.2%) and detection rate of 87.5% (95% CI 47%, 100%) in patients under age 35 years. In older patients, the false-positive rate was 14.3% (95% CI 12.7%, 15. 8%) and detection rate was 92% (95% CI 74%, 99%). For trisomy 18 screening, the false-positive rate was 0.4% (95% CI 0.24%, 0.69%) and detection rate was 100% (95% CI 40%, 100%) in younger patients, whereas in older patients the false-positive rate was 1.4% (95% CI 0. 9%, 2.0%) and detection rate was 100% (95% CI 66%, 100%). Using modeling, at a fixed 5% false-positive rate, the Down syndrome detection rate was 91%. Conversely, at a fixed 70% Down syndrome detection rate, the false-positive rate was 1.4%. CONCLUSION: First-trimester screening for Down syndrome and trisomy 18 is effective and offers substantial benefits to clinicians and patients.

Comparison of urinary free beta (hCG) and beta-core (hCG) in prenatal screening for chromosomal abnormalities.

To evaluate the potential utility of free beta (hCG) and beta-core (hCG) in a prenatal screening protocol for Down syndrome we analysed these markers in dried maternal urine specimens from 163 control, 13 Down syndrome and 5 trisomy 18 pregnancies from 8 to 25 weeks' gestation. All results are reported after normalization for urinary creatinine determined by modified Jaffe reagent assay. The correlation of urinary free beta (hCG) and urinary beta-core (hCG) was 0.61 in controls and 0.93 in Down syndrome. Median MoM values in Down syndrome were 2.42 for urinary free beta (hCG) and 2.40 for beta-core (hCG). In trisomy 18 the Median MoM was 0.35 and 0.34 for free beta (hCG) and beta-core (hCG), respectively. The degree of elevation observed in DS cases with urinary free beta (hCG) is consistent with previous reports. Studies of beta-core (hCG) in Down syndrome have yielded discrepant results. In this study, beta-core (hCG) in Down syndrome is lower than values observed in early reports but consistent with more recent reports.

First-trimester screening for fetal aneuploidy: biochemistry and nuchal translucency.

Maternal dried whole-blood specimens were collected prospectively from 2010 singleton pregnancies between 9 + 0 and 13 + 4 weeks that included 18 chromosomally abnormal pregnancies (11 Down's syndrome, four trisomy 18, two trisomy 13 and one triploidy). A subset of 744 pregnancies underwent ultrasound nuchal translucency measurement and included seven Down's syndrome, four trisomy 18, two trisomy 13 and one triploidy. Patients were evaluated for risk of Down's syndrome and trisomy 18 based on biochemistry (free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A), nuchal translucency and the combination of both. In prospective biochemical screening, false-positive rates for Down's syndrome and trisomy 18 were 5.1% (66/1297) and 1.9% (25/1297) in women < 35 years of age and 14.2% (99/695) and 1.6% (11/695) in women > or = 35 years of age, respectively. The detection efficiency of aneuploidy was 6/6 (100%) in women < 35 years and 11/12 (92%) in women > or = 35 years. Nuchal translucency measurement alone detected 57% (8/14) of cases of aneuploidy at a 5.8% (42/730) false-positive rate. Modelling with the age distribution of live births, a 5% false-positive rate resulted in Down's syndrome detection efficiency of 61% by biochemistry, 73% by nuchal translucency and 87% by combining both methods. The data in this study demonstrate that combined biochemical and ultrasound evaluation for Down's syndrome and other chromosomal abnormalities in the first trimester of pregnancy yield a detection capability that may exceed that of current second-trimester prenatal screening protocols. The potential for enhanced detection coupled to an earlier alert of fetal complications could represent a substantial advantage to both clinician and patient.

Prenatal maternal dried blood screening with alpha-fetoprotein and free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin for open neural tube defect and Down syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to evaluate second-trimester prenatal screening for open neural tube defects and Down syndrome by use of dried blood specimen collection and transport. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective study of 7497 dried blood specimens from patients <35 years old was performed. Specimens were assayed for maternal blood alpha-fetoprotein and free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin. Patient-specific risks for both disorders were calculated and used to determine whether further evaluation was indicated. The study included an evaluation of the median and SD of analyte multiple of the median levels. RESULTS: The initial positive rate for open neural tube defect was 4.4% adjusted to 2.7% after ultrasonographic revision and collection of a second sample. The initial positive rate for Down syndrome was 3.6% adjusted to 2.8% after ultrasonographic revision. All seven cases of open neural tube defect were detected within the increased risk group. Six of 8 (75%) cases of Down syndrome were detected. The median alpha-fetoprotein multiple of the median was 3.5 in open neural tube defect cases and 0.6 in Down syndrome cases. The median free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin multiple of the median was 2.4 in Down syndrome cases. The SD (log e) of alpha- fetoprotein and free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin in 5868 unaffected white patients was 0.4022 and 0.5635, respectively. CONCLUSION: Second-trimester dried blood screening for open neural tube defects and Down syndrome can achieve screening efficiency comparable to serum-based protocols with distinct advantages over the conventional method of blood collection.

First-trimester Down syndrome screening: free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A.

OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to determine the feasibility of a first-trimester Down syndrome screening protocol including free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A. STUDY DESIGN: First-trimester maternal blood samples from 22 Down syndrome and 483 control cases were assayed for free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay procedures. False-positive and detection rates were determined on the basis of Down syndrome risks calculated from the levels of biochemical markers and maternal age. Because 11 of the 22 Down syndrome cases were from older pregnancies (> or = 35 years old), rates were recalculated with the United States age distribution of live births to get a more representative estimate of false positives and detection efficiency. RESULTS: The median free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A levels in cases of Down syndrome was 2.09 (95% confidence interval 1.69 to 2.62) and 0.405 multiples of the median (95% confidence interval 0.28 to 0.67), respectively. At a 5.0% false-positive rate, 15 (68.2%) Down syndrome cases were detected. By the use of the age distribution of live births, 63% of cases could be expected to be detected at a 5.0% false-positive rate. CONCLUSION: First-trimester free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A screening for Down syndrome can achieve detection rates as high as those associated with alpha-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin or alpha-fetoprotein, human chorionic gonadotropin, and unconjugated estriol screening in the second trimester. Prospective studies are needed to further assess first-trimester screening.

Enhanced twin pregnancy detection within an open neural tube defect and Down syndrome screening protocol using free-beta hCG and AFP.

We have applied our multimarker approach of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free-beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) for Down syndrome screening to multiple gestations to assess its efficacy for improved detection of twin and triplet pregnancies. This study matched 225 cases of twin pregnancy and 39 cases of triplet pregnancy each with ten singleton pregnancies based on gestational week, race, time to receive sample, time of year of sample, and geographical area. The ratios of the MOM for each group at the tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles were compared by the Wilcoxon test. Risks for twins were calculated using Bayes' rule, the age-related incidence of twins, and the levels of AFP and free-beta hCG. The tenth, 50th and 90th percentiles of free-beta hCG MOMs in twin and triplet cases were 0.85, 1.99, and 4.51, and 1.38, 2.78, and 4.07, respectively. For AFP, the MOMs at these percentiles were 1.26, 1.91, and 2.99, and 2.02, 2.68, and 5.30, respectively. The twin and triplet distributions for each marker were statistically significantly different from the singleton distributions (P < 0.0001) and from each other (P = 0.0012). At a twin risk cut-off of 1 in 50, 77.4 per cent of all twin gestations can be detected in a second-trimester AFP and free-beta hCG screening protocol with 5.1 per cent of singleton pregnancies falsely identified as at risk for twins. Our dual marker protocol for mid-trimester pregnancy screening combining AFP and free-beta hCG can identify over 77 per cent of twin pregnancies in women less than 35 years of age. This benefit may contribute to an improved outcome of pregnancy by early detection of multiple gestation.

Stability of intact chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) in serum, liquid whole blood, and dried whole-blood filter-paper spots: impact on screening for Down syndrome by measurement of free beta-hCG subunit.

The use of multiple maternal serum biochemical markers in screening for Down syndrome is gaining worldwide acceptance. We sought to study the impact of the potential instability of intact human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) on free beta-hCG subunit, a marker that has recently been used successfully in such screening. We found that, in practice, any changes in free beta-hCG due to the instability of intact hCG do not inhibit the effectiveness of free beta-hCG as a marker for Down syndrome. This was proven by controlled laboratory experiments at various stress temperatures, freeze-thaw studies, and analysis of a large set of screening data with particular reference to time in transit for individual samples. Data from controlled dissociation studies demonstrate that any apparent increase in free beta-hCG due to the instability of intact hCG cannot be attributed simply to the dissociation of intact hCG. Finally, for large-scale mass population screening in areas of the world where transport delays, safety concerns, and high temperatures preclude the shipment of liquid whole blood, dried whole-blood spots in filter paper provide a suitable delivery system with many advantages.

Maternal serum Down syndrome screening: free beta-protein is a more effective marker than human chorionic gonadotropin.

The use of quantitative human chorionic gonadotropin measurement in obstetrics has a long and successful history. Prior studies on the utility of human chorionic gonadotropin in Down syndrome screening have utilized assays that measure the intact human chorionic gonadotropin molecule. This study targeted a distinct marker, the human chorionic gonadotropin free beta-protein, which is present in second-trimester maternal serum at much lower concentrations than is intact human chorionic gonadotropin. Our study of 29 cases of trisomy 21 and 450 control samples shows 80% detection efficiency with maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein, the free beta-protein, and maternal age in pregnancies under 17 weeks' gestation. We conclude that the combination of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and the human chorionic gonadotropin free beta-protein will be useful in the prenatal detection of trisomy 21.

Maternal serum Down syndrome screening: unconjugated estriol is not useful.

Study of 41 known Down syndrome cases and 441 matched controls did not confirm earlier reports that low unconjugated estriol levels can be used to detect fetal Down syndrome. Hence the obstetric community should exercise caution in using unconjugated estriol levels as a marker in prenatal Down syndrome screening.

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) patient-specific risk reporting: its use and misuse.

Fundamental to maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening is the clinical utility of the laboratory report. It follows that the scientific form of expression in that report is vital. Professional societies concur that patient-specific risk reporting is the preferred form. However, some intermediate steps being taken to calculate patient-specific risks are invalid because of the erroneous assumption that multiples of the median (MoMs) represent an interlaboratory common currency. The numerous methods by which MoMs may be calculated belie the foregoing assumption.

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening. III. Pitfalls in evaluating black gravid women.

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels are higher in black women. Misinterpretation of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening results can subject black gravid women to unnecessary invasive diagnostic procedures and their calculable risks. Screening errors for black women can result from the use of normative data bases established with maternal serum samples drawn from other racial groups or the use of such data bases in conjunction with a published correction factor. Because the incidence of open neural tube defects is lower for blacks than for others, excessive false positive results for blacks (estimated to be 8817 to 28,215 cases annually) would be a pernicious misapplication of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening. We address the problem outlined above and recommend independently developed, valid, normative data bases.

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening. II. Pitfalls in low-volume decentralized laboratory performance.

Assays of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein are subject to the phenomenon of assay drift, which may be defined as incorrect increase or decrease of alpha-fetoprotein values from their true values. Low maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein weekly volume (for example, fewer than 500 specimens per week) will result in a greater than 47% probability that 10% assay drift will not be recognized. Further, laboratory reports to clinicians may lead to either misdirecting 43% more pregnant women (with positive drift) into further (possibly invasive) diagnostic procedures or the offer of further diagnostic services to 32% fewer gravidas at increased risk (with negative drift) than should be so managed. We address the problem outlined above and present the reasons for establishment of regional maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening programs operating at sufficient volume to permit the identification and control of assay drift.