Combining serum metabolomic profiles with traditional risk factors improves 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To identify a group of metabolites associated with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with type 2 diabetes and assess its predictive performance over-and-above a current CVD risk score (QRISK3). METHODS AND RESULTS: A panel of 228 serum metabolites was measured at baseline in 1066 individuals with type 2 diabetes (Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study) who were then followed up for CVD over the subsequent 10 years. We applied 100 repeats of Cox least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select metabolites with frequency >90% as components for a metabolites-based risk score (MRS). The predictive performance of the MRS was assessed in relation to a reference model that was based on QRISK3 plus prevalent CVD and statin use at baseline. Of 1021 available individuals, 255 (25.0%) developed CVD (median follow-up: 10.6 years). Twelve metabolites relating to fluid balance, ketone bodies, amino acids, fatty acids, glycolysis, and lipoproteins were selected to construct the MRS that showed positive association with 10-year cardiovascular risk following adjustment for traditional risk factors [hazard ratio (HR) 2.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96, 3.64]. The c-statistic was 0.709 (95%CI 0.679, 0.739) for the reference model alone, increasing slightly to 0.728 (95%CI 0.700, 0.757) following addition of the MRS. Compared with the reference model, the net reclassification index and integrated discrimination index for the reference model plus the MRS were 0.362 (95%CI 0.179, 0.506) and 0.041 (95%CI 0.020, 0.071), respectively. CONCLUSION: Metabolomics data might improve predictive performance of current CVD risk scores based on traditional risk factors in people with type 2 diabetes. External validation is warranted to assess the generalizability of improved CVD risk prediction using the MRS.

This study looked at whether combining a group of new markers found in the blood (called metabolites) with traditional risk factors (such as high blood pressure and obesity) could more accurately predict how likely people with type 2 diabetes are to develop cardiovascular diseases in the next 10 years. Key findingsTwelve metabolites (including amino acids and lipids) showed strong association with 10-year cardiovascular risk in people with type 2 diabetes, and a metabolites-based risk score (MRS) was created by integrating these metabolites.Combining the MRS with traditional risk factors was better at predicting the risk of a person with T2D for developing cardiovascular diseases within the next 10 years than using traditional risk factors alone.

Exploration of Metabolomic Markers Associated With Declining Kidney Function in People With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Background: Metabolomics, the study of small molecules in biological systems, can provide valuable insights into kidney dysfunction in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but prospective studies are scarce. We investigated the association between metabolites and kidney function decline in people with T2DM. Methods: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study, a population-based cohort of 1066 men and women aged 60 to 75 years with T2DM. We measured 149 serum metabolites at baseline and investigated individual associations with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), incident chronic kidney disease [CKD; eGFR <60 mL/min/(1.73 m)2], and decliner status (5% eGFR decline per year). Results: At baseline, mean eGFR was 77.5 mL/min/(1.73 m)2 (n = 1058), and 216 individuals had evidence of CKD. Of those without CKD, 155 developed CKD over a median 7-year follow-up. Eighty-eight metabolites were significantly associated with baseline eGFR (ß range -4.08 to 3.92; PFDR < 0.001). Very low density lipoproteins, triglycerides, amino acids (AAs), glycoprotein acetyls, and fatty acids showed inverse associations, while cholesterol and phospholipids in high-density lipoproteins exhibited positive associations. AA isoleucine, apolipoprotein A1, and total cholines were not only associated with baseline kidney measures (PFDR < 0.05) but also showed stable, nominally significant association with incident CKD and decline. Conclusion: Our study revealed widespread changes within the metabolomic profile of CKD, particularly in lipoproteins and their lipid compounds. We identified a smaller number of individual metabolites that are specifically associated with kidney function decline. Replication studies are needed to confirm the longitudinal findings and explore if metabolic signals at baseline can predict kidney decline.

Serum metabolomic profiles associated with subclinical and clinical cardiovascular phenotypes in people with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in diabetes, but the full range of biomarkers reflecting atherosclerotic burden and CVD risk in people with diabetes is unknown. Metabolomics may help identify novel biomarkers potentially involved in development of atherosclerosis. We investigated the serum metabolomic profile of subclinical atherosclerosis, measured using ankle brachial index (ABI), in people with type 2 diabetes, compared with the profile for symptomatic CVD in the same population. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a cohort of 1,066 individuals with type 2 diabetes. ABI was measured at baseline, years 4 and 10, with cardiovascular events assessed at baseline and during 10 years of follow-up. A panel of 228 metabolites was measured at baseline using nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry, and their association with both ABI and prevalent CVD was explored using univariate regression models and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Metabolites associated with baseline ABI were further explored for association with follow-up ABI and incident CVD. RESULTS: Mean (standard deviation, SD) ABI at baseline was 0.97 (0.18, N = 1025), and prevalence of CVD was 35.0%. During 10-year follow-up, mean (SD) change in ABI was + 0.006 (0.178, n = 436), and 257 CVD events occurred. Lactate, glycerol, creatinine and glycoprotein acetyls levels were associated with baseline ABI in both univariate regression [ßs (95% confidence interval, CI) ranged from - 0.025 (- 0.036, - 0.015) to - 0.023 (- 0.034, - 0.013), all p < 0.0002] and LASSO analysis. The associations remained nominally significant after adjustment for major vascular risk factors. In prospective analyses, lactate was nominally associated with ABI measured at years 4 and 10 after adjustment for baseline ABI. The four ABI-associated metabolites were all positively associated with prevalent CVD [odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 1.29 (1.13, 1.47) to 1.49 (1.29, 1.74), all p < 0.0002], and they were also positively associated with incident CVD [ORs (95% CI) ranged from 1.19 (1.02, 1.39) to 1.35 (1.17, 1.56), all p < 0.05]. CONCLUSIONS: Serum metabolites relating to glycolysis, fluid balance and inflammation were independently associated with both a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis and with symptomatic CVD in people with type 2 diabetes. Additional investigation is warranted to determine their roles as possible etiological and/or predictive biomarkers for atherosclerotic CVD.