Predictive framework for codend size selection of brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) in the North Sea beam-trawl fishery.

The brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) fishery is of great socio-economic importance to coastal communities on the North Sea. The fishery is exploited by beam trawlers often using codends with very small mesh sizes, leading to concerns about catch rates of undersized shrimp. However, little information is available on codend size selection, making it difficult to provide scientifically based advice on alternative codend designs. Therefore, this study establishes a predictive framework for codend size selection of brown shrimp, based on a large selectivity dataset from 33 different codend designs tested during four experimental fishing cruises, during which more than 350,000 brown shrimp were length measured. Predictions by the framework confirm concerns about the exploitation pattern in the fishery, because the retention probability of undersized shrimp reaches 95% with the currently applied designs. The framework predictions allow the exploration of obtainable exploitation patterns depending on codend design. For example, increasing codend mesh size to 25-29 mm would reduce the retention rate of undersized shrimp to a maximum of 50%, depending on codend mesh type.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems.

Mapping the spawning grounds of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) by direct and indirect means.

Despite recent evidence for sub-stock structuring, North Sea cod are assessed as a single unit. As a consequence, knowledge of sub-stock trends is poor. In particular, there are no recent evaluations of which spawning grounds are active. Here we report results from the first ichthyoplankton survey to cover the whole North Sea. Also, this survey, conducted in 2004, was the first to make extensive use of DNA-based molecular methods to unambiguously identify early developmental stage cod eggs. We compare the findings from the plankton survey with estimated egg production inferred from the distribution of mature cod in contemporaneous trawl surveys. Results from both approaches were in general agreement and showed hot spots of egg production around the southern and eastern edges of the Dogger Bank, in the German Bight, the Moray Firth and to the east of the Shetlands. These areas broadly coincide with known spawning locations from the period 1940 to 1970. We were, however, unable to directly detect significant numbers of cod eggs at the historic spawning ground off Flamborough (northeast coast of England). The results demonstrate that most of the major spawning grounds of cod in the North Sea are still active but that some localized populations may have been reduced to the point where it is now difficult to detect the presence of eggs in the plankton.