Citizen involvement in COVID-19 contact tracing with digital tools: a qualitative study to explore citizens' perspectives and needs.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing (CT) is a key strategy when dealing with outbreaks of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. The scale of the COVID-19 pandemic has often left public health professionals (PHPs), who are responsible for the execution of CT, unable to keep up with the rapid and largescale spread of the virus. To enhance or support its execution, and potentially lower the workload for PHPs, citizens may be more actively involved in CT-tasks that are commonly executed by PHPs (referred to as 'self-led CT'). There is limited insight into citizens' perspectives on and needs for self-led CT for COVID-19. This study aims to explore the perspectives and needs of Dutch citizens on taking more responsibilities in the execution of CT for COVID-19, potentially through the use of digital tools. METHODS: An exploratory qualitative study was performed, in which online semi-structured interviews were conducted. Questions were based on the Reasoned Action Approach and Health Belief Model. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. A thematic analysis was conducted to identify citizens' perspectives and needs to participate in self-led CT. RESULTS: We conducted 27 interviews with Dutch citizens. Seven main themes were identified from the interviews: 1) 'Citizens' perspectives on self-led CT are influenced by prior experiences with regular CT', 2) 'Citizens' felt responsibilities and the perceived responsibilities of the PHS in CT shape their perspectives on self-led CT', 3) 'Anticipated impacts of self-led CT on the CT-process', 4) 'Citizens' attitude towards the application of self-led CT depends on their own perceived skills and the willingness and skills of others', 5) 'Shame and social stigma may hamper participation in self-led CT', 6) 'Concerns about privacy and data security: a barrier for self-led CT', and 7) 'Citizens' perspectives and anticipated needs for the implementation and application of self-led CT in practice'. CONCLUSIONS: Most interviewees hold a positive attitude towards self-led CT and using digital tools for this purpose. However, their intention for self-led CT may depend on various factors, such as prior experiences with regular CT, and their perceived self-efficacy to participate. Perspectives and needs of citizens should be considered for the future implementation of self-led CT in practice.

Dutch public health professionals' perspectives and needs regarding citizen involvement in COVID-19 contact tracing through digital support tools: an exploratory qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing (CT) is an important, but resource-intensive tool to control outbreaks of communicable diseases. Under pandemic circumstances, public health services may not have sufficient resources at their disposal to effectively facilitate CT. This may be addressed by giving cases and their contact persons more autonomy and responsibility in the execution of CT by public health professionals, through digital contact tracing support tools (DCTS-tools). However, the application of this approach has not yet been systematically investigated from the perspective of public health practice. Therefore, we investigated public health professionals' perspectives and needs regarding involving cases and contact persons in CT for COVID-19 through DCTS-tools. METHODS: Between October 2020 and February 2021, we conducted online semi-structured interviews (N = 17) with Dutch public health professionals to explore their perspectives and needs regarding the involvement of cases and contact persons in CT for COVID-19 through DCTS-tools, in the contact identification, notification, and monitoring stages of the CT-process. Interviews were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. A thematic analysis was performed. RESULTS: Four main themes related to Dutch public health professionals' perspectives and needs regarding involving cases and contact persons in CT for COVID-19 through DCTS-tools emerged from the data: 'Distinct characteristics of CT with DCTS-tools'; 'Anticipated benefits and challenges of CT for COVID-19 with DCTS- tools'; 'Circumstances in CT for COVID-19 that permit or constrain the application of DCTS-tools'; and 'Public health professionals' needs regarding the development and application of DCTS-tools for CT'. Public health professionals seem to have a positive attitude towards involving cases and contact persons through DCTS-tools. Public health professionals' (positive) attitudes seem conditional on the circumstances under which CT is performed, and the fulfilment of their needs in the development and application of DCTS-tools. CONCLUSIONS: Dutch public health professionals seem positive towards involving cases and contact persons in CT for COVID-19 through DCTS-tools. Through adequate implementation of DCTS-tools in the CT-process, anticipated challenges can be overcome. Future research should investigate the perspectives and needs of cases and contact persons regarding DCTS-tools, and the application of DCTS-tools in practice.

Impact of inter-hospital transfers on the prevalence of resistant pathogens in a hospital-community system.

The spread of resistant bacteria in hospitals is an increasing problem worldwide. Transfers of patients, who may be colonized with resistant bacteria, are considered to be an important driver of promoting resistance. Even though transmission rates within a hospital are often low, readmissions of patients who were colonized during an earlier hospital stay lead to repeated introductions of resistant bacteria into hospitals. We developed a mathematical model that combines a deterministic model for within-hospital spread of pathogens, discharge to the community and readmission, with a hospital-community network simulation of patient transfers between hospitals. Model parameters used to create the hospital-community network are obtained from two health insurance datasets from Germany. For parameter values representing transmission of resistant Enterobacteriaceae, we compute estimates for the single admission reproduction numbers RA and the basic reproduction numbers R0 per hospital-community pair. We simulate the spread of colonization through the network of hospitals, and investigate how increasing connectedness of hospitals through the network influences the prevalence in the hospital-community pairs. We find that the prevalence in hospitals is determined by their RA and R0 values. Increasing transfer rates between network nodes tend to lower the overall prevalence in the network by diluting the high prevalence of hospitals with high R0 to hospitals where persistent spread is not possible. We conclude that hospitals with high reproduction numbers represent a continuous source of risk for importing resistant pathogens for hospitals with otherwise low levels of transmission. Moreover, high risk hospital-community nodes act as reservoirs of pathogens in a densely connected network.

[Is the discipline associated with self-confidence in handling rational antibiotic prescription? : Results from the MR2 study in German hospitals]. / Ist die Fachrichtung assoziiert mit der Selbstsicherheit im Umgang mit rationaler Antibiotikaverordnung? : Ergebnisse der MR2-Studien an deutschen Kliniken.

BACKGROUND: Besides public awareness and specialist knowledge and training of physicians, their self-confidence plays a key role for clinical decision-making in the respective area. OBJECTIVE: This exploratory study investigated the influence of the discipline on differences in self-confidence in dealing with antibiotics and in the self-rated knowledge. METHODS: In 2015 the multi-institutional reconnaissance of practice with multiresistant bacteria (MR2) questionnaire containing items on antibiotic prescription and multiresistant pathogens was sent out to 1061 physicians working in departments for internal medicine, general surgery, gynecology and obstetrics and urology. In 2017 a similar MR2 survey was sent to 1268 specialist and assistant physicians in anesthesiology in Germany. Besides demographic data 4 items on self-confidence in the use of antibiotic treatment and 11 items concerning self-rated knowledge about rational antibiotic therapy and multiresistant pathogens were included in the present analysis. Logistic regression analysis, the χ2-test and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used for statistical analysis of the influence of the discipline on these items. RESULTS: The response rates were 43% (456 out of 1061) from the non-anesthetists and 56% (705 out of 1268) from the anesthetists. Of the non-anesthetists 44% and 57% of the anesthetists had had no advanced training on antibiotic stewardship during the year before the study. In the overall analysis anesthetists (mean±SD: 2.53±0.54) were significantly less self-confident about antibiotics than colleagues from other departments (internal medicine: 3.10±0.50, general surgery: 2.97±0.44, gynecology and obstetrics: 3.12±0.42 and urology: 3.15±0.44) in the unadjusted (all p<0.001) and adjusted comparison. The analysis of self-rated knowledge about rational antibiotic prescription showed similar results. Senior consultant status and advanced training in infectiology were significantly associated with self-confidence and self-rated knowledge about antibiotics. CONCLUSION: Anesthetists showed significantly less self-confidence in dealing with antibiotics than colleagues from other disciplines. Advanced training on a rational prescription of antibiotics was associated with a greater self-confidence, so that the implementation of compulsory courses on rational antibiotic stewardship in the respective residency curriculum needs to be considered.

Spatial distribution and temporal progression of T2 relaxation time values in knee cartilage prior to the onset of cartilage lesions - data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI).

PURPOSE: To investigate compositional changes of knee cartilage at the site of newly appearing cartilage lesions and the surrounding cartilage 1-4 years prior to lesion onset using quantitative T2-measurements. METHODS: Fifty-seven cartilage plates with newly appearing cartilage lesions from 45 knees (cases) and 52 plates from 26 control knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) cohort (controls) were evaluated. Using MRI T2-mapping, composition of local (the site of future lesions) and surrounding cartilage (remainder of the cartilage plate) was assessed 1-4 years prior to lesion onset. Analogous cartilage ROIs in control plates without cartilage lesions were assessed over 1-4 years. Mixed models were used to compare T2-means and change rates between local and surrounding cartilage within cases and controls, and to compare change rates in local and surrounding cartilage between cases and controls, adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: Four years prior to lesion onset, we found that local cartilage ROIs had higher T2-values compared to the surrounding cartilage. No such differences were found in control plates. In cases mean local T2-values were persistantly elevated compared to the surrounding cartilage prior to lesion onset reaching significance 1 year prior (+2.94 ms, p = 0.012). T2-values of the surrounding cartilage were also persistantly higher in cases compared to controls, reaching significance 2 years prior to lesion onset (+3.61 ms, p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: The findings of our study support the concept of compositional cartilage changes as a mechanism for cartilage degradation and that both diffuse and focal changes of cartilage composition within a cartilage plate precede the development of cartilage lesions.

The incidence of symptomatic infection with influenza virus in the Netherlands 2011/2012 through 2016/2017, estimated using Bayesian evidence synthesis.

Due to differences in the circulation of influenza viruses, distribution and antigenic drift of A subtypes and B lineages, and susceptibility to infection in the population, the incidence of symptomatic influenza infection can vary widely between seasons and age-groups. Our goal was to estimate the symptomatic infection incidence in the Netherlands for the six seasons 2011/2012 through 2016/2017, using Bayesian evidence synthesis methodology to combine season-specific sentinel surveillance data on influenza-like illness (ILI), virus detections in sampled ILI cases and data on healthcare-seeking behaviour. Estimated age-aggregated incidence was 6.5 per 1000 persons (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4.7-9.0) for season 2011/2012, 36.7 (95% UI: 31.2-42.8) for 2012/2013, 9.1 (95% UI: 6.3-12.9) for 2013/2014, 41.1 (95% UI: 35.0-47.7) for 2014/2015, 39.4 (95% UI: 33.4-46.1) for 2015/2016 and 27.8 (95% UI: 22.7-33.7) for season 2016/2017. Incidence varied substantially between age-groups (highest for the age-group <5 years: 23 to 47/1000, but relatively low for 65+ years: 2 to 34/1000 over the six seasons). Integration of all relevant data sources within an evidence synthesis framework has allowed the estimation - with appropriately quantified uncertainty - of the incidence of symptomatic influenza virus infection. These estimates provide valuable insight into the variation in influenza epidemics across seasons, by virus subtype and lineage, and between age-groups.

Waning and boosting: on the dynamics of immune status.

The aim is to describe the distribution of immune status (as captured by antibody level) on the basis of a within-host submodel for continuous waning and occasional boosting. Inspired by Feller's fundamental work and the more recent delay equation formulation of models for the dynamics of physiologically structured populations, we derive, for given force of infection, a linear renewal equation. The solution is obtained by generation expansion, with the generation number corresponding to the number of times the individual became infected. Our main result provides a precise characterization of the stable distribution of immune status.

Development of prediction models for upper and lower respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections using social network parameters in middle-aged and older persons -The Maastricht Study.

The ability to predict upper respiratory infections (URI), lower respiratory infections (LRI), and gastrointestinal tract infections (GI) in independently living older persons would greatly benefit population and individual health. Social network parameters have so far not been included in prediction models. Data were obtained from The Maastricht Study, a population-based cohort study (N = 3074, mean age (±s.d.) 59.8 ± 8.3, 48.8% women). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop prediction models for self-reported symptomatic URI, LRI, and GI (past 2 months). We determined performance of the models by quantifying measures of discriminative ability and calibration. Overall, 953 individuals (31.0%) reported URI, 349 (11.4%) LRI, and 380 (12.4%) GI. The area under the curve was 64.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 62.6-66.8%) for URI, 71.1% (95% CI 68.4-73.8) for LRI, and 64.2% (95% CI 61.3-67.1%) for GI. All models had good calibration (based on visual inspection of calibration plot, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). Social network parameters were strong predictors for URI, LRI, and GI. Using social network parameters in prediction models for URI, LRI, and GI seems highly promising. Such parameters may be used as potential determinants that can be addressed in a practical intervention in older persons, or in a predictive tool to compute an individual's probability of infections.

Use of a Dose-Response Model to Study Temporal Trends in Spatial Exposure to Coxiella burnetii: Analysis of a Multiyear Outbreak of Q Fever.

The Netherlands underwent a large Q fever outbreak between 2007 and 2009. In this paper, we study spatial and temporal Coxiella burnetii exposure trends during this large outbreak as well as validate outcomes against other published studies and provide evidence to support hypotheses on the causes of the outbreak. To achieve this, we develop a framework using a dose-response model to translate acute Q fever case incidence into exposure estimates. More specifically, we incorporate a geostatistical model that accounts for spatial and temporal correlation of exposure estimates from a human Q fever dose-response model to quantify exposure trends during the outbreak. The 2051 cases, with the corresponding age, gender and residential addresses, reside in the region with the highest attack rates during the outbreak in the Netherlands between 2006 and 2009. We conclude that the multiyear outbreak in the Netherlands is caused by sustained release of infectious bacteria from the same sources, which suggests that earlier implementation of interventions may have prevented many of the cases. The model predicts the risk of infection and acute symptomatic Q fever from multiple exposure sources during a multiple-year outbreak providing a robust, evidence-based methodology to support decision-making and intervention design.

Linking the seroresponse to infection to within-host heterogeneity in antibody production.

A recently published model for the serum antibody response to infection appeared well suited for use in statistical analyses of longitudinal serological data. The published model assumed exponential decay with fixed rates for pathogen and serum antibody kinetics, ignoring any within-host heterogeneity in the seroresponse. A bi-exponential model shows that there is rapid initial decay followed by a prolonged period of persistent low serum antibody concentrations. We propose a small modification of the decay model that greatly increases its flexibility by allowing for non-exponential antibody decay. The modified model produces power functions that may be interpreted as a mixture of exponential decay curves, with a mixing distribution representing the relative contribution of many centres of antibody production to the serum antibody concentration. Fitting the power function decay model to observed longitudinal data for pertussis shows improved goodness of fit compared to the exponential decay model, with estimates for the shape parameter (r=2.2; 95% CI (1.7-2.8)) that differ from exponential shape (r=1). The power function decay model predicts more persistent antibody concentrations in the long term (symptomatic threshold reached >30 years after infection) which, when used in biomarker studies, will lead to lower estimates of seroconversion rates compared to exponential antibody decay.

Longitudinal analysis of cartilage T2 relaxation times and joint degeneration in African American and Caucasian American women over an observation period of 6 years - data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the change in cartilage T2 values and structural degeneration in knee joints over 72 months in women of African American (AA) vs Caucasian American (CA) ethnicity. METHODS: Knee 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRIs) from baseline, 24, 48 and 72 months visits of 100 AA and 100 CA women from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) were assessed for cartilage T2 values and whole-organ magnetic resonance imaging (WORMS) score. Subjects were pair-matched by age, body mass index (BMI), Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score, clinical site and subcohort within the OAI. We compared the rate of change in whole knee cartilage T2 values and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) and meniscus scores between the two ethnic groups using mixed random effects models. RESULTS: At 24 and 48 months 60 subjects and at 72 months 45 subjects per group were available for analysis resulting in 38 complete pairs with data of all time points. Compared to CA, cartilage T2 values in AA increased at a significantly faster rate at baseline (AA: 0.45 ms/y, CA: 0.35 ms/y, P = 0.029) and averaged over 6 years (AA: 0.36 ms/y, CA: 0.27 ms/y, P = 0.039) with changes in both groups reaching a plateau by 48 months. Cartilage, meniscus and BMEP scores tended to increase in both groups during follow up, but rates of change did not differ by ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Cartilage T2 values increased faster over 72 months in AA than CA, however changes in WORMS cartilage, meniscus and BMEP scores did not differ. T2 values may be able to distinguish ethnicity-related differences of cartilage degeneration at an early stage before differences in structural joint degeneration appear.

The association between MR T1ρ and T2 of cartilage and patient-reported outcomes after ACL injury and reconstruction.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if cartilage T1ρ and T2 relaxation time measures after ACL injury and prior to reconstruction (baseline) are associated with patient-reported outcomes at baseline, 6-months, and 1-year after surgery. DESIGN: Fifty-four ACL-injured participants were scanned in both knees at baseline using 3T MR T1ρ and T2 mapping. Participants also completed Knee-injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) and Marx activity level questionnaires at baseline, 6-months, and 1-year after reconstruction. The difference between cartilage T1ρ or T2 of the injured and contralateral knee (side-to-side difference, SSD) was calculated to account for physiological variations among patients. Linear regression models were built to evaluate the association between the baseline SSD T1ρ or T2 and KOOS or Marx at all time points. RESULTS: Higher baseline SSD T1ρ posterolateral tibia (pLT) was associated with worse KOOS in all subscales except symptoms at baseline, worse KOOS pain at 6-months, and worse KOOS in all subscales except sports function at 1-year. Higher baseline SSD T2 femoral trochlea (TrF) was associated with worse KOOS activities of daily living (ADL) at 1-year. Higher baseline SSD T1ρ pLT was associated with lower Marx activity level at 1-year. More severe cartilage lesions, as assessed by Whole-Organ MRI Scoring (WORMS), was significantly associated with worse KOOS pain at 6-months and 1-year. CONCLUSION: T1ρ and T2 of cartilage after ACL injury were associated with KOOS after injury and both KOOS and Marx after reconstruction. Such associations may help clinicians stratify outcomes post-injury, and thus, improve patient management.

Estimating the risk of dengue transmission from Dutch blood donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean.

BACKGROUND: The risk of dengue transmitted by travellers is known. Methods to estimate the transmission by transfusion (TT) risk from blood donors travelling to risk areas are available, for instance, the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT). This study aimed to validate the estimated risk from travelling donors obtained from EUFRAT. METHODS: Surveillance data on notified dengue cases in Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean islands (Aruba, Curaçao, St. Maarten, Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba) in 2001-2011 was used to calculate local incidence rates. Information on travel and donation behaviour of Dutch donors was collected. With the EUFRAT model, the TT risks from Dutch travelling donors were calculated. Model estimates were compared with the number of infections in Dutch travellers found by laboratory tests in the Netherlands. RESULTS: The expected cumulative number of donors becoming infected during travels to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean from 2001 to 2011 was estimated at 5 (95% CI, 2-11) and 86 (45-179), respectively. The infection risk inferred from the laboratory-based study was 19 (9-61) and 28 (14-92). Given the independence of the data sources, these estimates are remarkably close. The model estimated that 0·02 (0·001-0·06) and 0·40 (0·01-1·4) recipients would have been infected by these travelling donors. CONCLUSIONS: The EUFRAT model provided an estimate close to actual observed number of dengue infections. The dengue TT risk among Dutch travelling donors can be estimated using basic transmission, travel and donation information. The TT risk from Dutch donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean is small.

Association between cartilage degeneration and subchondral bone remodeling in patients with knee osteoarthritis comparing MRI and (99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT/CT.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to investigate the association between cartilage lesions assessed with 3T-MRI and remodeling of the subchondral bone detected by (99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT/CT. DESIGN: (99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT/CT and MRI of 27 knees of 25 patients with chronic knee pain and risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA) were evaluated by one nuclear physician and one radiologist. Six regions of the knee (in total 162 regions in 27 knees) were assessed according to structural joint lesions graded with a modified Whole Organ MR imaging score (WORMS) and according to subchondral (99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT uptake. Relationships between regional WORMS scores and uptake were quantified using general estimating equations. In a secondary analysis the uptake sum with the WORMS sum per joint was compared using Spearman correlations. RESULTS: Elevated subchondral uptake was significantly associated with the grade of cartilage lesions (P < 0.0001). Mean uptake was significantly higher subjacent to full thickness cartilage lesions compared to partial thickness lesions (P < 0.0001). A similar association was observed between bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) and cartilage lesions. The sum of uptakes per joint was positively correlated to the WORMS sum (rs = 0.42) and to the sum of cartilage lesions per joint (rs = 0.50). CONCLUSION: Both functional and structural changes of the subchondral bone in terms of scintigraphic osseous activity and the presence and degree of BMEP were significantly associated with cartilage lesions in patients with OA of the knee. This association was pronounced with full thickness lesions, indicating a possible protective effect of the cartilage layer for the subjacent bone.

Racial differences in biochemical knee cartilage composition between African-American and Caucasian-American women with 3 T MR-based T2 relaxation time measurements--data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether knee cartilage composition differs between African-American and Caucasian-American women at risk for Osteoarthritis (OA) using in vivo 3 T MRI T2 relaxation time measurements. METHODS: Right knee MRI studies of 200 subjects (100 African-American women, and 100 closely matched Caucasian-American women) were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Knee cartilage was segmented in the patellar (PAT), medial and lateral femoral (MF/LF), and medial and lateral tibial compartments (MT/LT)). Mean T2 relaxation time values per compartment and per whole joint cartilage were generated and analyzed spatially via laminar and grey-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) texture methods. Presence and severity of cartilage lesions per compartment were graded using a modified WORMS grading. Statistical analysis employed paired t- and McNemar testing. RESULTS: While African-American women and Caucasian-Americans had similar WORMS cartilage lesion scores (P = 0.970), African-Americans showed significantly lower mean T2 values (∼1 ms difference; ∼0.5SD) than Caucasian-Americans in the whole knee cartilage (P < 0.001), and in the subcompartments (LF: P = 0.001, MF: P < 0.001, LT: P = 0.019, MT: P = 0.001) and particularly in the superficial cartilage layer (whole cartilage: P < 0.001, LF: P < 0.001, MF: P < 0.001, LT: P = 0.003, MT: P < 0.001). T2 texture parameters were also significantly lower in the whole joint cartilage of African-Americans than in Caucasian-Americans (variance: P = 0.001; contrast: P = 0.018). In analyses limited to matched pairs with no cartilage lesions in a given compartment, T2 values remained significantly lower in African-Americans. CONCLUSION: Using T2 relaxation time as a biomarker for the cartilage collagen network, our findings suggest racial differences in the biochemical knee cartilage composition between African-American and Caucasian-American women.

Association of Physical Activity Measured by Accelerometer, Knee Joint Abnormalities, and Cartilage T2 Measurements Obtained From 3T Magnetic Resonance Imaging: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To study the cross-sectional association between physical activity measured with an accelerometer, structural knee abnormalities, and cartilage T2 values assessed with 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: We included 274 subjects from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort without definite radiographic osteoarthritis (Kellgren/Lawrence grades 0 and 1) and with at most mild pain, stiffness, and functional limitation in the study knee (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index scale 0-1), which had not limited their activity due to knee pain. Physical activity was measured over 7 days with an ActiGraph GT1M accelerometer. Subjects were categorized by quartile of physical activity based on the average daily minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (mv-PA). MRI images of the right knee (at 48-month visit) were assessed for structural abnormalities using a modified Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) and for T2 relaxation times derived from segmented cartilage of 4 femorotibial regions and the patella. WORMS grades and T2 measurements were compared between activity quartiles using a linear regression model. Covariates included age, sex, body mass index, knee injury, family history of knee replacement, knee symptoms, hip and ankle pain, and daily wear time of the accelerometer. RESULTS: Higher mv-PA was associated with increased severity (P = 0.0087) and number of lesions of the medial meniscus (P = 0.0089) and with severity of bone marrow edema lesions (P = 0.0053). No association between cartilage lesions and mv-PA was found. T2 values of cartilage (loss, damage, and abnormalities) tended to be greater in the higher quartiles of mv-PA, but the differences were nonsignificant. CONCLUSION: In knees without radiographic osteoarthritis in subjects with no or mild knee pain, higher physical activity levels were associated with increases in meniscal and bone marrow edema pattern lesions.

Characterization of the collagen component of cartilage repair tissue of the talus with quantitative MRI: comparison of T2 relaxation time measurements with a diffusion-weighted double-echo steady-state sequence (dwDESS).

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to characterize the collagen component of repair tissue (RT) of the talus after autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis (AMIC) using quantitative T2 and diffusion-weighted imaging. METHODS: Mean T2 values and diffusion coefficients of AMIC-RT and normal cartilage of the talus of 25 patients with posttraumatic osteochondral lesions and AMIC repair were compared in a cross-sectional design using partially spoiled steady-state free precession (pSSFP) for T2 quantification, and diffusion-weighted double-echo steady-state (dwDESS) for diffusion measurement. RT and cartilage were graded with modified Noyes and MOCART scores on morphological sequences. An association between follow-up interval and quantitative MRI measures was assessed using multivariate regression, after stratifying the cohort according to time interval between surgery and MRI. RESULTS: Mean T2 of the AMIC-RT and cartilage were 43.1 ms and 39.1 ms, respectively (p = 0.26). Mean diffusivity of the RT (1.76 µm(2)/ms) was significantly higher compared to normal cartilage (1.46 µm(2)/ms) (p = 0.0092). No correlation was found between morphological and quantitative parameters. RT diffusivity was lowest in the subgroup with follow-up >28 months (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to T2-mapping, dwDESS demonstrated greater sensitivity in detecting differences in the collagen matrix between AMIC-RT and cartilage. Decreased diffusivity in patients with longer follow-up times may indicate an increased matrix organization of RT. KEY POINTS: • MRI is used to assess morphology of the repair tissue during follow-up. • Quantitative MRI allows an estimation of biochemical properties of the repair tissue. • Differences between repair tissue and cartilage were more significant with dwDESS than T2 mapping.

Use of DALYs in economic analyses on interventions for infectious diseases: a systematic review.

A systematic literature review was performed on full economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions using disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as outcome measure. The search was limited to the period between 1994 and September 2011 and conducted in Medline, SciSearch and EMBASE databases. We included 154 studies, mostly targeting HIV/AIDS and malaria with most conducted for African countries (40%) and <10% in high-income countries. Third-payer perspective was applied in 29% of the studies, 25% used the societal perspective and 12% used both. Only 16% of the studies took indirect effects (i.e. herd immunity) of interventions into account. Intervention, direct healthcare and indirect non-healthcare costs were taken into account in respectively 100%, 81% and 36% of the studies. The majority of the studies followed the Global Burden of Disease method for DALY estimations, but most studies deviated from WHO cost-effectiveness guidelines. Better adherence to freely accessible guidelines will improve generalizability between full economic evaluations.

A two-phase within-host model for immune response and its application to serological profiles of pertussis.

We present a simple phenomenological within-host model describing both the interaction between a pathogen and the immune system and the waning of immunity after clearing of the pathogen. We implement the model into a Bayesian hierarchical framework to estimate its parameters for pertussis using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We show that the model captures some essential features of the kinetics of titers of IgG against pertussis toxin. We identify a threshold antibody level that separates a large increase in antibody level upon infection from a small increase and accordingly might be interpreted as a threshold separating clinical from subclinical infections. We contrast predictions of the model with observations reported in the literature and based on independent data and find a remarkable correspondence.

Benefits of hepatitis C virus treatment: a balance of preventing onward transmission and re-infection.

By treating HCV-infected injecting drug users (IDUs), we may prevent infections to other IDUs. Curing preferentially individuals who most often share injecting equipment has the advantage of preventing more infections. However, such high risk behavior IDUs are also more likely to become re-infected. We have created a model that can inform us about most efficient HCV treatment policy; the expected benefits per treatment of one HCV-infected IDU are calculated, defined as a decrease in the number of chronic HCV infections. This includes the probability that the cured IDU remains uninfected, and the number of new infections prevented both directly and indirectly in further infection generations. We explore analytically how these benefits depend on the syringe sharing frequency of the cured IDU. We find that whom to best cure is determined by the prevalence of HCV contamination among exchanged syringes within the IDU population. Treating lowest risk IDUs is most beneficial above a certain prevalence of contamination, since the term for re-infection dominates the equation in this domain. At lower prevalence treating highest risk IDUs is most beneficial, since here the term for prevention dominates. In a much simplified model the threshold between domains is found at exactly 50% HCV prevalence. The threshold value is lowered when taking HCV induced mortality or increased infectiousness during an acute stage of infection into account. It is increased when taking into account treatment duration, or when HCV-treatment is combined with intervention that reduces the syringe sharing rate of the cured IDU.