Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns.

INTRODUCTION: The delivery of COVID-19 vaccines was successful in reducing hospitalizations and mortality. However, emergence of the Omicron variant resulted in increased virus transmissibility. Consequently, booster vaccination programs were initiated to decrease the risk of severe disease and death among vulnerable members of the population. This study aimed to estimate the effects of the booster program and alternative vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 in the UK. METHOD: A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to assess the impact of several vaccination strategies on severe outcomes associated with COVID-19, including hospitalizations, mortality, National Health Service (NHS) capacity quantified by hospital general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) bed days, and patient productivity. The model accounted for age-, risk- and immunity-based stratification of the UK population. Outcomes were evaluated over a 48-week time horizon from September 2022 to August 2023 considering the actual UK autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaigns and six counterfactual strategies. RESULTS: The model estimated that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign resulted in a reduction of 18,921 hospitalizations and 1463 deaths, compared with a no booster scenario. Utilization of hospital bed days due to COVID-19 decreased after the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. Expanding the booster eligibility criteria and improving uptake improved all outcomes, including averting twice as many ICU admissions, preventing more than 20% additional deaths, and a sevenfold reduction in long COVID, compared with the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. The number of productive days lost was reduced by fivefold indicating that vaccinating a wider population has a beneficial impact on the morbidities associated with COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Our modelling demonstrates that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign reduced COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality. Booster campaigns with alternative eligibility criteria warrant consideration in the UK, given their potential to further reduce morbidity and mortality as future variants emerge.

Reducing Opioid Use for Chronic Pain With a Group-Based Intervention: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Opioid use for chronic nonmalignant pain can be harmful. Objective: To test whether a multicomponent, group-based, self-management intervention reduced opioid use and improved pain-related disability compared with usual care. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicentered, randomized clinical trial of 608 adults taking strong opioids (buprenorphine, dipipanone, morphine, diamorphine, fentanyl, hydromorphone, methadone, oxycodone, papaveretum, pentazocine, pethidine, tapentadol, and tramadol) to treat chronic nonmalignant pain. The study was conducted in 191 primary care centers in England between May 17, 2017, and January 30, 2019. Final follow-up occurred March 18, 2020. Intervention: Participants were randomized 1:1 to either usual care or 3-day-long group sessions that emphasized skill-based learning and education, supplemented by 1-on-1 support delivered by a nurse and lay person for 12 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 2 primary outcomes were Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Pain Interference Short Form 8a (PROMIS-PI-SF-8a) score (T-score range, 40.7-77; 77 indicates worst pain interference; minimal clinically important difference, 3.5) and the proportion of participants who discontinued opioids at 12 months, measured by self-report. Results: Of 608 participants randomized (mean age, 61 years; 362 female [60%]; median daily morphine equivalent dose, 46 mg [IQR, 25 to 79]), 440 (72%) completed 12-month follow-up. There was no statistically significant difference in PROMIS-PI-SF-8a scores between the 2 groups at 12-month follow-up (-4.1 in the intervention and -3.17 in the usual care groups; between-group difference: mean difference, -0.52 [95% CI, -1.94 to 0.89]; P = .15). At 12 months, opioid discontinuation occurred in 65 of 225 participants (29%) in the intervention group and 15 of 208 participants (7%) in the usual care group (odds ratio, 5.55 [95% CI, 2.80 to 10.99]; absolute difference, 21.7% [95% CI, 14.8% to 28.6%]; P < .001). Serious adverse events occurred in 8% (25/305) of the participants in the intervention group and 5% (16/303) of the participants in the usual care group. The most common serious adverse events were gastrointestinal (2% in the intervention group and 0% in the usual care group) and locomotor/musculoskeletal (2% in the intervention group and 1% in the usual care group). Four people (1%) in the intervention group received additional medical care for possible or probable symptoms of opioid withdrawal (shortness of breath, hot flushes, fever and pain, small intestinal bleed, and an overdose suicide attempt). Conclusions and Relevance: In people with chronic pain due to nonmalignant causes, compared with usual care, a group-based educational intervention that included group and individual support and skill-based learning significantly reduced patient-reported use of opioids, but had no effect on perceived pain interference with daily life activities. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN49470934.

Protocol for an economic analysis of the randomised controlled trial of Improving the Well-being of people with Opioid Treated CHronic pain: I-WOTCH Study.

INTRODUCTION: Over the last two decades, the use of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain in England has steadily increased despite lack of evidence of both long-term effectiveness in pain relief and significant, well-documented physical and mental adverse events. Guidelines recommend tapering when harms outweigh benefits, but the addictive nature of opioids hinders simple dose-reduction strategies. Improving the Well-being of people with Opioid Treated CHronic pain (I-WOTCH) trial tests a multicomponent self-management intervention aimed to help patients with chronic non-malignant pain taper opioid doses. This paper outlines the methods to be used for the economic analysis of the I-WOTCH intervention compared with the best usual care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Economic evaluation alongside the I-WOTCH study, prospectively designed to identify, measure and value key healthcare resource use and outcomes arising from the treatment strategies being compared. A within-trial cost-consequences analysis and a model-based long-term cost-effectiveness analysis will be conducted from the National Health Service and Personal Social Service perspective in England. The former will quantify key parameters to populate a Markov model designed to estimate the long-term cost and quality-adjusted life years of the I-WOTCH intervention against best usual care. Regression equations will be used to estimate parameters such as transition probabilities, utilities, and costs associated with the model's states and events. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis will be used to assess the impact of parameter uncertainty onto the predicted costs and health outcomes, and the resulting value for money assessment of the I-WOTCH intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Full ethics approval was granted by Yorkshire & The Humber-South Yorkshire Research Ethics Committee on 13 September 2016 (16/YH/0325). Current protocol: V.1.7, date 31 July 2019. Findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, scientific conferences, newsletters and websites. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (49 470 934); Pre-result.

A formula to estimate the optimal dosage of ribavirin for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C: influence of ITPA polymorphisms.

BACKGROUND: Greater cumulative exposure to ribavirin increases response to interferon-ribavirin combination therapy for hepatitis C but also induces more severe anaemia. Polymorphisms in the ITPA gene protect against ribavirin-induced anaemia. The maximum dosage of ribavirin that can be tolerated by patients with different ITPA polymorphisms remains unknown. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of haemoglobin (Hb) decline in patients undergoing combination therapy. Using it to analyse published patient data, we estimated the average erythrocyte lifespan in patients with different ITPA polymorphisms. Coupled with a previous population pharmacokinetic study, we derived a formula for predicting the optimal ribavirin dosage, D(opt), above which anaemia becomes intolerable (Hb<10 g/dl). RESULTS: Our model provided good fits to patient data of ribavirin accumulation in erythrocytes and the ensuing Hb decline during therapy. With the current treatment protocol, the average erythrocyte lifespan was approximately 36 days in patients with wild-type ITPA activity, and approximately 43 days and 55 days, respectively, in patients with mild and moderate ITPA deficiency. Our model yielded a facile formula for estimating D(opt) given a patient's weight, creatinine clearance, pretreatment Hb and ITPA polymorphism. Patients with moderate ITPA deficiency are predicted to tolerate twice the ribavirin dosage as patients with wild-type ITPA. CONCLUSIONS: Our formula for D(opt) presents an avenue for personalizing ribavirin dosage. By keeping anaemia tolerable, the predicted optimal dosage may improve adherence, reduce the need for drug monitoring, and increase response rates. Response rates may be increased further by the higher dosages recommended for patients with ITPA deficiency.

Ribavirin-induced anemia in hepatitis C virus patients undergoing combination therapy.

The current standard of care for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection - combination therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin - elicits sustained responses in only ∼50% of the patients treated. No alternatives exist for patients who do not respond to combination therapy. Addition of ribavirin substantially improves response rates to interferon and lowers relapse rates following the cessation of therapy, suggesting that increasing ribavirin exposure may further improve treatment response. A key limitation, however, is the toxic side-effect of ribavirin, hemolytic anemia, which often necessitates a reduction of ribavirin dosage and compromises treatment response. Maximizing treatment response thus requires striking a balance between the antiviral and hemolytic activities of ribavirin. Current models of viral kinetics describe the enhancement of treatment response due to ribavirin. Ribavirin-induced anemia, however, remains poorly understood and precludes rational optimization of combination therapy. Here, we develop a new mathematical model of the population dynamics of erythrocytes that quantitatively describes ribavirin-induced anemia in HCV patients. Based on the assumption that ribavirin accumulation decreases erythrocyte lifespan in a dose-dependent manner, model predictions capture several independent experimental observations of the accumulation of ribavirin in erythrocytes and the resulting decline of hemoglobin in HCV patients undergoing combination therapy, estimate the reduced erythrocyte lifespan during therapy, and describe inter-patient variations in the severity of ribavirin-induced anemia. Further, model predictions estimate the threshold ribavirin exposure beyond which anemia becomes intolerable and suggest guidelines for the usage of growth hormones, such as erythropoietin, that stimulate erythrocyte production and avert the reduction of ribavirin dosage, thereby improving treatment response. Our model thus facilitates, in conjunction with models of viral kinetics, the rational identification of treatment protocols that maximize treatment response while curtailing side effects.

Estimation of red blood cell lifespan from alveolar carbon monoxide measurements.

Measurement of alveolar carbon monoxide (CO) presents a facile technique to estimate the lifespan, L, of red blood cells (RBCs) in vivo. Several recent studies employ this technique and calculate L (in days) using the expression, L=13.8 [Hb]/P(CO)(end), where [Hb] is the concentration (in g/dL) of hemoglobin in blood, and P(CO)(end) is the endogenous production of CO (in ppm). Implicit in this calculation is the assumption that the fraction, f, of endogenous CO production due to RBC turnover is a constant equal to 0.7, which yields the expected RBC lifespan, L approximately 120 days, in normal controls. In anemic patients, however, enhanced RBC turnover may increase f substantially above 0.7. The above expression then overestimates L. Here, we derive an alternative expression, L=3390[Hb]/322P(CO)(end)-110, that accounts explicitly for the dependence of f on the rate of RBC turnover and thereby provides more accurate estimates of L without requiring additional measurements. Using the latter expression, we recalculate L from recent measurements on hepatitis C virus infected patients undergoing treatment with ribavirin. We find that our estimates of L in these patients (39+/-13 days) are significantly lower than current estimates (46+/-14 days), indicating that ribavirin affects RBC survival more severely than expected from current studies. Our expression for L is simple to employ in a clinical setting and would render the broadly applicable technique of alveolar CO measurement for the estimation of RBC lifespan more accurate.