The potential geographical distribution and phenology of Bemisia tabaci Middle East/Asia Minor 1, considering irrigation and glasshouse production.

The Bemisia tabaci species complex is one of the most important pests of open field and protected cropping globally. Within this complex, one species (Middle East Asia Minor 1, B. tabaci MEAM1, formerly biotype B) has been especially problematic, invading widely and spreading a large variety of plant pathogens, and developing broad spectrum pesticide resistance. Here, we fit a CLIMEX model to the distribution records of B. tabaci MEAM1, using experimental observations to calibrate its temperature responses. In fitting the model, we consider the effects of irrigation and glasshouses in extending its potential range. The validated niche model estimates its potential distribution as being considerably broader than its present known distribution, especially in the Americas, Africa and Asia. The potential distribution of the fitted model encompasses the known distribution of B. tabaci sensu lato, highlighting the magnitude of the threat posed globally by this invasive pest species complex and the viruses it vectors to open field and protected agriculture.

Management and population dynamics of diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella): planting regimes, crop hygiene, biological control and timing of interventions.

Using an age-structured process-based simulation model for diamondback moth (DBM), we model the population dynamics of this major Brassica pest using the cropping practices and climate of Guangdong, China. The model simulates two interacting sub-populations (demes), each representing a short season crop. The simulated DBM abundance, and hence pest problems, depend on planting regime, crop hygiene and biological control. A continuous supply of hosts, a low proportion of crop harvested and long residue times between harvest and replanting each exacerbate pest levels. Biological control provided by a larval parasitoid can reduce pest problems, but not eliminate them when climate is suitable for DBM and under certain planting practices. The classic Integrated Pest Management (IPM) method of insecticide application, when pest threshold is reached, proved effective and halved the number of insecticide sprays when compared with the typical practice of weekly insecticide application.

Global establishment threat from a major forest pest via international shipping: Lymantria dispar.

The global shipping network is widely recognised as a pathway for vectoring invasive species. One species of particular concern is Lymantria dispar (gypsy moth). Two subspecies, L. d. asiatica and L. d. japonica (herein referred to as Asian Gypsy Moth - AGM) are of considerable concern as ships arriving to a number of countries have been found carrying AGM egg masses. However, ships carrying AGM eggs can only threaten a country at ports located in a climatically suitable region. We present a CLIMEX model of climate suitability and combine this with international shipping to estimate the global threat from AGM. We find that for the USA more than half of international ships (approximately 18,000 ships) arrive to climatically suitable ports. Other countries with a large number of ships arriving to ports with suitable climates include Canada and Brazil. This is the first global analysis of the invasion threat from AGM, and we recommend countries focus AGM-inspection programs towards ships arriving at ports found within climatically suitable regions.

The potential distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis: considering phenology and irrigation patterns.

A species in the Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) complex was detected in Kenya during 2003 and classified as Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White. Having spread rapidly throughout Africa, it threatens agriculture due to crop damage and loss of market access. In a recent revision of the B. dorsalis complex, B. invadens was incorporated into the species B. dorsalis. The potential distribution of B. dorsalis has been previously modelled. However, previous models were based on presence data and did not incorporate information on the seasonal phenology of B. dorsalis, nor on the possible influence that irrigation may have on its distribution. Methyl eugenol-baited traps were used to collect B. dorsalis in Africa. Seasonal phenology data, measured as fly abundance throughout the year, was related to each location's climate to infer climatic growth response parameters. These functions were used along with African distribution records and development studies to fit the niche model for B. dorsalis, using independent global distribution records outside Africa for model validation. Areas at greatest risk of invasion by B. dorsalis are South and Central America, Mexico, southernmost USA, parts of the Mediterranean coast, parts of Southern and Eastern Australia and New Zealand's North Island. Under irrigation, most of Africa and Australia appear climatically suitable.

Population dynamics and management of diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) in China: the relative contributions of climate, natural enemies and cropping patterns.

Diamondback moth or DBM is the major pest of Brassica vegetable production worldwide. Control has relied on insecticides, and DBM resistance to these compounds has evolved rapidly. We review and summarize data on DBM population dynamics across a large latitudinal gradient from southwest to northeast China: DBM is, on average, more common in southern locations than in northern locations. The species' phenology is consistent: in southern and central locations there is a decline during hot summer months, while in the north, the species can only exist in the summer following migrations from the south. A cohort-based discrete-time model, driven by daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall, which was built using the DYMEX modelling software, captures the age-structured population dynamics of DBM at representative locations, with year round cropping and threshold-based insecticide applications. The scale of the simulated pest problem varies with cropping practices. Local production breaks and strict post-harvest crop hygiene are associated with lower DBM populations. Biological control appears to improve the management of DBM. Of the management strategies explored, non-threshold based applications of insecticides with reduced spray efficacy (due to poor application or resistance) appear the least effective. The model simulates the phenology and abundance patterns in the population dynamics across the climatic gradient in China reasonably well. With planned improvements, and backed by a system of field sampling and weather inputs, it should serve well as a platform for a local pest forecast system, spanning the range of DBM in China, and perhaps elsewhere.

Combining field phenological observations with distribution data to model the potential distribution of the fruit fly Ceratitis rosa Karsch (Diptera: Tephritidae).

Despite the potential for phenological and abundance data to improve the reliability of species niche models, they are seldom used. The aim of this study was to combine information on the distribution, relative abundance and seasonal phenology of Natal fruit fly, Ceratitis rosa Karsch (Diptera: Tephritidae), in South Africa to model its potential global distribution. Bucket traps, baited with Biolure, were used to trap C. rosa in different climatic regions of South Africa over a two-year period. A CLIMEX niche model of the potential global distribution of C. rosa was fitted using the collected trapping data and other distribution records from South Africa. Independent distribution records for elsewhere in Africa were reserved for model validation. The CLIMEX model results conformed well to the South African trapping data, including information on relative abundance and seasonal phenology, as well as to the pattern of presence records of the species elsewhere in Africa. The model suggests that under recent historical conditions a large part of South America, Central America, Mexico and southern USA may be climatically suitable for establishment of C. rosa. In Europe, climatically suitable habitat is restricted to coastal regions of the Mediterranean, in Asia, mostly to the southern and south eastern countries, and in Australia mostly to the wetter south and east. The independent cross-validation provided by South African relative abundance and seasonal phenology data, central African distribution data and relevant species specific biological information provides greater confidence in the modelled potential distribution of C. rosa.

Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions, B. zonata will be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution of B. zonata will expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually by B. zonata were consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. zonata projected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread of B. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.

The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae).

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access, B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX was used to model the potential global distribution of B. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalis projected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis is striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.

Potential of selective insecticides for managing Uraba lugens (Lepidoptera: Nolidae) on Eucalypts.

The leaf skeletonizer Uraba lugens Walker (Lepidoptera: Nolidae), an Australian species, locally known as "gumleaf skeletonizer", is well established in New Zealand. This insect has the potential to become a serious pest of forestry and amenity eucalypts (Eucalyptus spp.) and is the focus of a long-term management program. The use of synthetic chemical or biological insecticides is one possible control method within an integrated control program. A series of dose-response trials were conducted using laboratory bioassays to test the efficacy of several insecticides against U. lugens: pyrethroids, spinosad, Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki Berliner (Btk) and an insect growth regulator, Mimic. Pyrethroids and spinosad proved highly effective against U. lugens larvae, achieving 100% mortality after 3-6-d exposure. The performance of Btk was lower against gregarious skeletonizing larvae compared with solitary chewing larvae. When good coverage of the target foliage is achieved, >90% mortality is possible with Btk. Mimic performed poorly against U. lugens compared with other insecticides tested (<60% mortality). The Eucalyptus species on which larvae were feeding significantly altered insecticide efficacy. Treatments applied to Eucalyptus nitens (Deane & Maiden) Maiden had reduced efficacy compared with E. cinerea F. Muell. ex Benth. or E. fastigata Deane & Maiden. Cooler temperatures also reduced insecticide efficacy, presumably by decreasing movement and food consumption by U. lugens. Recommendations on spray applications to control U. lugens in New Zealand are given.

Uraba lugens (Lepidoptera: Nolidae) in New Zealand: pheromone trapping for delimitation and phenology.

A synthetic sex pheromone trapping survey of the leaf skeletonizer Uraba lugens Walker (Lepidoptera: Nolidae) demonstrated the unexpectedly widespread distribution of the insect across > 40,000 ha of urban Auckland, New Zealand. A survey of eucalyptus trees planted in parks and other public areas showed a significant spatial correlation between trap catch and breeding populations, validating the trap survey results. Traps in trees showing damage had four-fold higher catches than traps placed in undamaged or nonhost trees, and < 1% of damaged trees with traps failed to catch adult moths. Damage by larval feeding was correlated with male trap catch in the previous generation, offering good prospects for a pest management decision support system, provided that an economic threshold is developed. Catches increased by 3.4-fold in the same georeferenced trapping grid between November and December 2003 and between March and April 2004 across two generations, over the summer. A vertical transect showed that catches increased with height up to the top trap at 13 m (60% of mean tree height). Options for managing the insect will need to overcome the high rate of increase, the rate of spread, and the vertical distribution of the insect on tall eucalyptus trees.