Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate.

Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or overestimations of risks. In this work, we present a framework for modelling multi-hazard risks globally in a consistent way, considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and assumptions on recovery. We illustrate the approach using river floods and tropical cyclones impacting people and physical assets on a global scale in a changing climate. To ensure physical consistency, we combine single hazard models that were driven by the same climate model realizations. Our results show that incorporating common physical drivers and recovery considerably alters the multi-hazard risk. We finally demonstrate how our framework can accommodate more than two hazards and integrate diverse assumptions about recovery processes based on a national case study. This framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk assessment platform CLIMADA and can be applied to various hazards and exposures, providing a more comprehensive approach to risk management than conventional methods.

Open Quantum Systems' Decay across Time.

The description of an open quantum system's decay almost always requires several approximations so as to remain tractable. In this Letter, we first revisit the meaning, domain, and seeming contradictions of a few of the most widely used of such approximations: (semigroup) Markovianity, linear response theory, Wigner-Weisskopf approximation, and rotating-wave approximation. Second, we derive an effective time-dependent decay theory and corresponding generalized quantum regression relations for an open quantum system linearly coupled to an environment. This theory covers all timescales and subsumes the Markovian and linear-response results as limiting cases. Finally, we apply our theory to the phenomenon of quantum friction.