Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles.

Elevated carbon dioxide and ozone alter productivity and ecosystem carbon content in northern temperate forests.

Three young northern temperate forest communities in the north-central United States were exposed to factorial combinations of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and tropospheric ozone (O3 ) for 11 years. Here, we report results from an extensive sampling of plant biomass and soil conducted at the conclusion of the experiment that enabled us to estimate ecosystem carbon (C) content and cumulative net primary productivity (NPP). Elevated CO2 enhanced ecosystem C content by 11%, whereas elevated O3 decreased ecosystem C content by 9%. There was little variation in treatment effects on C content across communities and no meaningful interactions between CO2 and O3 . Treatment effects on ecosystem C content resulted primarily from changes in the near-surface mineral soil and tree C, particularly differences in woody tissues. Excluding the mineral soil, cumulative NPP was a strong predictor of ecosystem C content (r(2) = 0.96). Elevated CO2 enhanced cumulative NPP by 39%, a consequence of a 28% increase in canopy nitrogen (N) content (g N m(-2) ) and a 28% increase in N productivity (NPP/canopy N). In contrast, elevated O3 lowered NPP by 10% because of a 21% decrease in canopy N, but did not impact N productivity. Consequently, as the marginal impact of canopy N on NPP (∆NPP/∆N) decreased through time with further canopy development, the O3 effect on NPP dissipated. Within the mineral soil, there was less C in the top 0.1 m of soil under elevated O3 and less soil C from 0.1 to 0.2 m in depth under elevated CO2 . Overall, these results suggest that elevated CO2 may create a sustained increase in NPP, whereas the long-term effect of elevated O3 on NPP will be smaller than expected. However, changes in soil C are not well-understood and limit our ability to predict changes in ecosystem C content.

Wood properties of Populus and Betula in long-term exposure to elevated CO2 and O3.

We studied the interactive effects of elevated concentrations of CO2 and O3 on radial growth and wood properties of four trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) clones and paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) saplings. The material for the study was collected from the Aspen FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment) experiment in Rhinelander (WI, USA). Trees had been exposed to four treatments [control, elevated CO2 (560 ppm), elevated O3 (1.5 times ambient) and combined CO2 + O3 ] during growing seasons 1998-2008. Most treatment responses were observed in the early phase of experiment. Our results show that the CO2- and O3-exposed aspen trees displayed a differential balance between efficiency and safety of water transport. Under elevated CO2, radial growth was enhanced and the trees had fewer but hydraulically more efficient larger diameter vessels. In contrast, elevated O3 decreased radial growth and the diameters of vessels and fibres. Clone-specific decrease in wood density and cell wall thickness was observed under elevated CO2 . In birch, the treatments had no major impacts on wood anatomy or wood density. Our study indicates that short-term impact studies conducted with young seedlings may not give a realistic view of long-term ecosystem responses.

Can elevated CO2 and ozone shift the genetic composition of aspen (Populus tremuloides) stands?

The world's forests are currently exposed to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3). Both pollutants can potentially exert a selective effect on plant populations. This, in turn, may lead to changes in ecosystem properties, such as carbon sequestration. Here, we report how elevated CO2 and O3 affect the genetic composition of a woody plant population via altered survival. Using data from the Aspen free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment (in which aspen clones were grown in factorial combinations of CO2 and O3), we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model of survival. We also examine how survival differences between clones could affect pollutant responses in the next generation. Our model predicts that the relative abundance of the tested clones, given equal initial abundance, would shift under either elevated CO2 or O3 as a result of changing survival rates. Survival was strongly affected by between-clone differences in growth responses. Selection could noticeably decrease O3 sensitivity in the next generation, depending on the heritability of growth responses and the distribution of seed production. The response to selection by CO2, however, is likely to be small. Our results suggest that the changing atmospheric composition could shift the genotypic composition and average pollutant responses of tree populations over moderate timescales.

Forest productivity under elevated CO2 and O3: positive feedbacks to soil N cycling sustain decade-long net primary productivity enhancement by CO2.

The accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, and hence the rate of climate warming, is sensitive to stimulation of plant growth by higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Here, we synthesise data from a field experiment in which three developing northern forest communities have been exposed to factorial combinations of elevated CO2 and O3. Enhanced net primary productivity (NPP) (c. 26% increase) under elevated CO2 was sustained by greater root exploration of soil for growth-limiting N, as well as more rapid rates of litter decomposition and microbial N release during decay. Despite initial declines in forest productivity under elevated O3, compensatory growth of O3 -tolerant individuals resulted in equivalent NPP under ambient and elevated O3. After a decade, NPP has remained enhanced under elevated CO2 and has recovered under elevated O3 by mechanisms that remain un-calibrated or not considered in coupled climate-biogeochemical models simulating interactions between the global C cycle and climate warming.

Acute O 3 damage on first year coppice sprouts of aspen and maple sprouts in an open-air experiment.

We studied the effect of high ozone (O(3)) concentration (110-490 nmol mol(-1)) on regenerating aspen (Populus tremuloides) and maple (Acer saccharum) trees at an open-air O(3) pollution experiment near Rhinelander WI USA. This study is the first of its kind to examine the effects of acute O(3) exposure on aspen and maple sprouts after the parent trees, which were grown under elevated O(3) and/or CO(2) for 12 years, were harvested. Acute O(3) damage was not uniform within the crowns of aspen suckers; it was most severe in the mature, fully expanded photosynthesizing leaves. Young expanding leaves showed no visible signs of acute O(3) damage contrary to expectations. Stomatal conductance played a primary role in the severity of acute O(3) damage as it directly controlled O(3) uptake. Maple sprouts, which had lower stomatal conductance, smaller stomatal aperture, higher stomatal density and larger leaf surface area, were tolerant of acute O(3) exposure. Moreover, elevated CO(2) did not ameliorate the adverse effects of acute O(3) dose on aspen and maple sprouts, in contrast to its ability to counteract the effects of long-term chronic exposure to lower O(3) levels.

Elevated CO2 response of photosynthesis depends on ozone concentration in aspen.

The effect of elevated CO(2) and O(3) on apparent quantum yield (varphi), maximum photosynthesis (P(max)), carboxylation efficiency (V(cmax)) and electron transport capacity (J(max)) at different canopy locations was studied in two aspen (Populus tremuloides) clones of contrasting O(3) tolerance. Local light climate at every leaf was characterized as fraction of above-canopy photosynthetic photon flux density (%PPFD). Elevated CO(2) alone did not affect varphi or P(max), and increased J(max) in the O(3)-sensitive, but not in the O(3)-tolerant clone. Elevated O(3) decreased leaf chlorophyll content and all photosynthetic parameters, particularly in the lower canopy, and the negative impact of O(3) increased through time. Significant interaction effect, whereby the negative impact of elevated O(3) was exaggerated by elevated CO(2) was seen in Chl, N and J(max), and occurred in both O(3)-tolerant and O(3)-sensitive clones. The clonal differences in the level of CO(2)xO(3) interaction suggest a relationship between photosynthetic acclimation and background O(3) concentration.

Will photosynthetic capacity of aspen trees acclimate after long-term exposure to elevated CO2 and O3?

Photosynthetic acclimation under elevated carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and/or ozone (O(3)) has been the topic of discussion in many papers recently. We examined whether or not aspen plants grown under elevated CO(2) and/or O(3) will acclimate after 11 years of exposure at the Aspen Face site in Rhinelander, WI, USA. We studied diurnal patterns of instantaneous photosynthetic measurements as well as A/C(i) measurements monthly during the 2004-2008 growing seasons. Our results suggest that the responses of two aspen clones differing in O(3) sensitivity showed no evidence of photosynthetic and stomatal acclimation under either elevated CO(2), O(3) or CO(2) + O(3). Both clones 42E and 271 did not show photosynthetic nor stomatal acclimation under elevated CO(2) and O(3) after a decade of exposure. We found that the degree of increase or decrease in the photosynthesis and stomatal conductance varied significantly from day to day and from one season to another.

Leaf size and surface characteristics of Betula papyrifera exposed to elevated CO2 and O3.

Betula papyrifera trees were exposed to elevated concentrations of CO(2) (1.4 x ambient), O(3) (1.2 x ambient) or CO(2) + O(3) at the Aspen Free-air CO(2) Enrichment Experiment. The treatment effects on leaf surface characteristics were studied after nine years of tree exposure. CO(2) and O(3) increased epidermal cell size and reduced epidermal cell density but leaf size was not altered. Stomatal density remained unaffected, but stomatal index increased under elevated CO(2). Cuticular ridges and epicuticular wax crystallites were less evident under CO(2) and CO(2) + O(3). The increase in amorphous deposits, particularly under CO(2) + O(3,) was associated with the appearance of elongated plate crystallites in stomatal chambers. Increased proportions of alkyl esters resulted from increased esterification of fatty acids and alcohols under elevated CO(2) + O(3). The combination of elevated CO(2) and O(3) resulted in different responses than expected under exposure to CO(2) or O(3) alone.

Sap flux in pure aspen and mixed aspen-birch forests exposed to elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide and ozone.

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and tropospheric ozone ([O3]) have the potential to affect tree physiology and structure and hence forest water use, which has implications for climate feedbacks. We investigated how a 40% increase above ambient values in [CO2] and [O3], alone and in combination, affect tree water use of pure aspen and mixed aspen-birch forests in the free air CO2-O3 enrichment experiment near Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Aspen FACE). Measurements of sap flux and canopy leaf area index (L) were made during two growing seasons, when steady-state L had been reached after more than 6 years of exposure to elevated [CO2] and [O3]. Maximum stand-level sap flux was not significantly affected by elevated [O3], but was increased by 18% by elevated [CO2] averaged across years, communities and O(3) regimes. Treatment effects were similar in pure aspen and mixed aspen-birch communities. Increased tree water use in response to elevated [CO2] was related to positive CO2 treatment effects on tree size and L (+40%). Tree water use was not reduced by elevated [O3] despite strong negative O3 treatment effects on tree size and L (-22%). Elevated [O3] predisposed pure aspen stands to drought-induced sap flux reductions, whereas increased tree water use in response to elevated [CO2] did not result in lower soil water content in the upper soil or decreasing sap flux relative to control values during dry periods. Maintenance of soil water content in the upper soil in the elevated [CO2] treatment was at least partly a function of enhanced soil water-holding capacity, probably a result of increased organic matter content from increased litter inputs. Our findings that larger trees growing in elevated [CO2] used more water and that tree size, but not maximal water use, was negatively affected by elevated [O3] suggest that the long-term cumulative effects on stand structure may be more important than the expected primary stomatal closure responses to elevated [CO2] and [O3] in determining stand-level water use under possible future atmospheric conditions.

Effects of decadal exposure to interacting elevated CO2 and/or O3 on paper birch (Betula papyrifera) reproduction.

We studied the effects of long-term exposure (nine years) of birch (Betula papyrifera) trees to elevated CO(2) and/or O(3) on reproduction and seedling development at the Aspen FACE (Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) site in Rhinelander, WI. We found that elevated CO(2) increased both the number of trees that flowered and the quantity of flowers (260% increase in male flower production), increased seed weight, germination rate, and seedling vigor. Elevated O(3) also increased flowering but decreased seed weight and germination rate. In the combination treatment (elevated CO(2)+O(3)) seed weight is decreased (20% reduction) while germination rate was unaffected. The evidence from this study indicates that elevated CO(2) may have a largely positive impact on forest tree reproduction and regeneration while elevated O(3) will likely have a negative impact.

Wood properties of trembling aspen and paper birch after 5 years of exposure to elevated concentrations of CO(2) and O(3).

We investigated the interactive effects of elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide ([CO(2)]) and ozone ([O(3)]) on radial growth, wood chemistry and structure of five 5-year-old trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) clones and the wood chemistry of paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.). Material for the study was collected from the Aspen FACE (free-air CO(2) enrichment) experiment in Rhinelander, WI, where the saplings had been exposed to four treatments: control, elevated [CO(2)] (560 ppm), elevated [O(3)] (1.5 x ambient) and their combination for five growing seasons. Wood properties of both species were altered in response to exposure to the treatments. In aspen, elevated [CO(2)] decreased uronic acids (constituents of, e.g., hemicellulose) and tended to increase stem diameter. In response to elevated [O(3)] exposure, acid-soluble lignin concentration decreased and vessel lumen diameter tended to decrease. Elevated [O(3)] increased the concentration of acetone-soluble extractives in paper birch, but tended to decrease the concentration of these compounds in aspen. In paper birch, elevated [CO(2)] decreased and elevated [O(3)] increased starch concentration. The responses of wood properties to 5 years of fumigation differed from those previously reported after 3 years of fumigation.

Carbon gain and bud physiology in Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera grown under long-term exposure to elevated concentrations of CO2 and O3.

Paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and three trembling aspen clones (Populus tremuloides Michx.) were studied to determine if alterations in carbon gain in response to an elevated concentration of CO(2) ([CO(2)]) or O(3) ([O(3)]) or a combination of both affected bud size and carbohydrate composition in autumn, and early leaf development in the following spring. The trees were measured for gas exchange, leaf size, date of leaf abscission, size and biochemical characteristics of the overwintering buds and early leaf development during the 8th-9th year of free-air CO(2) and O(3) exposure at the Aspen FACE site located near Rhinelander, WI. Net photosynthesis was enhanced 49-73% by elevated [CO(2)], and decreased 13-30% by elevated [O(3)]. Elevated [CO(2)] delayed, and elevated [O(3)] tended to accelerate, leaf abscission in autumn. Elevated [CO(2)] increased the ratio of monosaccharides to di- and oligosaccharides in aspen buds, which may indicate a lag in cold acclimation. The total carbon concentration in overwintering buds was unaffected by the treatments, although elevated [O(3)] decreased the amount of starch by 16% in birch buds, and reduced the size of aspen buds, which may be related to the delayed leaf development in aspen during the spring. Elevated [CO(2)] generally ameliorated the effects of elevated [O(3)]. Our results show that both elevated [CO(2)] and elevated [O(3)] have the potential to alter carbon metabolism of overwintering buds. These changes may cause carry-over effects during the next growing season.

Increases in nitrogen uptake rather than nitrogen-use efficiency support higher rates of temperate forest productivity under elevated CO2.

Forest ecosystems are important sinks for rising concentrations of atmospheric CO(2). In previous research, we showed that net primary production (NPP) increased by 23 +/- 2% when four experimental forests were grown under atmospheric concentrations of CO(2) predicted for the latter half of this century. Because nitrogen (N) availability commonly limits forest productivity, some combination of increased N uptake from the soil and more efficient use of the N already assimilated by trees is necessary to sustain the high rates of forest NPP under free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE). In this study, experimental evidence demonstrates that the uptake of N increased under elevated CO(2) at the Rhinelander, Duke, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory FACE sites, yet fertilization studies at the Duke and Oak Ridge National Laboratory FACE sites showed that tree growth and forest NPP were strongly limited by N availability. By contrast, nitrogen-use efficiency increased under elevated CO(2) at the POP-EUROFACE site, where fertilization studies showed that N was not limiting to tree growth. Some combination of increasing fine root production, increased rates of soil organic matter decomposition, and increased allocation of carbon (C) to mycorrhizal fungi is likely to account for greater N uptake under elevated CO(2). Regardless of the specific mechanism, this analysis shows that the larger quantities of C entering the below-ground system under elevated CO(2) result in greater N uptake, even in N-limited ecosystems. Biogeochemical models must be reformulated to allow C transfers below ground that result in additional N uptake under elevated CO(2).

Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 and O3 on paper birch (Betula papyrifera): reproductive fitness.

Atmospheric CO2 and tropospheric O3 are rising in many regions of the world. Little is known about how these two commonly co-occurring gases will affect reproductive fitness of important forest tree species. Here, we report on the long-term effects of CO2 and O3 for paper birch seedlings exposed for nearly their entire life history at the Aspen FACE (Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) site in Rhinelander, WI. Elevated CO2 increased both male and female flower production, while elevated O3 increased female flower production compared to trees in control rings. Interestingly, very little flowering has yet occurred in combined treatment. Elevated CO2 had significant positive effect on birch catkin size, weight, and germination success rate (elevated CO2 increased germination rate of birch by 110% compared to ambient CO2 concentrations, decreased seedling mortality by 73%, increased seed weight by 17%, increased root length by 59%, and root-to-shoot ratio was significantly decreased, all at 3 weeks after germination), while the opposite was true of elevated O3 (elevated O3 decreased the germination rate of birch by 62%, decreased seed weight by 25%, and increased root length by 15%). Under elevated CO2, plant dry mass increased by 9 and 78% at the end of 3 and 14 weeks, respectively. Also, the root and shoot lengths, as well as the biomass of the seedlings, were increased for seeds produced under elevated CO2, while the reverse was true for seedlings from seeds produced under the elevated O3. Similar trends in treatment differences were observed in seed characteristics, germination, and seedling development for seeds collected in both 2004 and 2005. Our results suggest that elevated CO2 and O3 can dramatically affect flowering, seed production, and seed quality of paper birch, affecting reproductive fitness of this species.

Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity.

Climate change predictions derived from coupled carbon-climate models are highly dependent on assumptions about feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere. One critical feedback occurs if C uptake by the biosphere increases in response to the fossil-fuel driven increase in atmospheric [CO(2)] ("CO(2) fertilization"), thereby slowing the rate of increase in atmospheric [CO(2)]. Carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere are often first represented in models as net primary productivity (NPP). However, the contribution of CO(2) fertilization to the future global C cycle has been uncertain, especially in forest ecosystems that dominate global NPP, and models that include a feedback between terrestrial biosphere metabolism and atmospheric [CO(2)] are poorly constrained by experimental evidence. We analyzed the response of NPP to elevated CO(2) ( approximately 550 ppm) in four free-air CO(2) enrichment experiments in forest stands. We show that the response of forest NPP to elevated [CO(2)] is highly conserved across a broad range of productivity, with a stimulation at the median of 23 +/- 2%. At low leaf area indices, a large portion of the response was attributable to increased light absorption, but as leaf area indices increased, the response to elevated [CO(2)] was wholly caused by increased light-use efficiency. The surprising consistency of response across diverse sites provides a benchmark to evaluate predictions of ecosystem and global models and allows us now to focus on unresolved questions about carbon partitioning and retention, and spatial variation in NPP response caused by availability of other growth limiting resources.

Tropospheric O(3) compromises net primary production in young stands of trembling aspen, paper birch and sugar maple in response to elevated atmospheric CO(2).

Concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) and tropospheric ozone (O(3)) are rising concurrently in the atmosphere, with potentially antagonistic effects on forest net primary production (NPP) and implications for terrestrial carbon sequestration. Using free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) technology, we exposed north-temperate forest communities to concentrations of CO(2) and O(3) predicted for the year 2050 for the first 7 yr of stand development. Site-specific allometric equations were applied to annual nondestructive growth measurements to estimate above- and below-ground biomass and NPP for each year of the experiment. Relative to the control, elevated CO(2) increased total biomass 25, 45 and 60% in the aspen, aspen-birch and aspen-maple communities, respectively. Tropospheric O(3) caused 23, 13 and 14% reductions in total biomass relative to the control in the respective communities. Combined fumigation resulted in total biomass response of -7.8, +8.4 and +24.3% relative to the control in the aspen, aspen-birch and aspen-sugar maple communities, respectively. These results indicate that exposure to even moderate levels of O(3) significantly reduce the capacity of NPP to respond to elevated CO(2) in some forests.

Effects of induction treatments on flowering in Populus deltoides.

Stimulation of early flowering is required to shorten breeding cycles of eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides Bartr. ex Marsh. var. deltoides), a commercially important and fast-growing hardwood species. A series of experiments was conducted to evaluate the influence of various treatments on flowering in rooted cuttings from mature and juvenile trees. A combined treatment of water stress, root pruning and paclobutrazol was applied to 3-month-old rooted cuttings from mature trees. These cuttings had been subjected to root restriction and long days. All treated plants flowered, whereas no untreated plants formed flower buds. One-year-old rooted cuttings from juvenile trees did not flower when treated with either paclobutrazol, paclobutrazol plus water stress, paclobutrazol plus root pruning, or paclobutrazol plus girdling. This was true both under continuous or periodic growth. Assessment of the lack of flowering in juvenile trees may require an integrated approach that investigates environmental or physiological stimuli, assimilate shift, gibberellic acid type and concentration, and flowering-time gene activity in the new shoots of mature and juvenile cottonwood trees.

Shoot morphogenesis associated with flowering in Populus deltoides (Salicaceae).

Temporal and spatial formation and differentiation of axillary buds in developing shoots of mature eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides) were investigated. Shoots sequentially initiate early vegetative, floral, and late vegetative buds. Associated with these buds is the formation of three distinct leaf types. In May of the first growing season, the first type begins forming in terminal buds and overwinters as relatively developed foliar structures. These leaves bear early vegetative buds in their axils. The second type forms late in the first growing season in terminal buds. These leaves form floral buds in their axils the second growing season. The floral bud meristems initiate scale leaves in April and begin forming floral meristems in the axils of the bracts in May. The floral meristems subsequently form floral organs by the end of the second growing season. The floral buds overwinter with floral organs, and anthesis occurs in the third growing season. The third type of leaf forms and develops entirely outside the terminal buds in the second growing season. These leaves bear the late vegetative buds in their axils. On the basis of these and other supporting data, we hypothesize a 3-yr flowering cycle as opposed to the traditional 2-yr cycle in eastern cottonwood.

Altered performance of forest pests under atmospheres enriched by CO2 and O3.

Human activity causes increasing background concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 and O3. Increased levels of CO2 can be found in all terrestrial ecosystems. Damaging O3 concentrations currently occur over 29% of the world's temperate and subpolar forests but are predicted to affect fully 60% by 2100 (ref. 3). Although individual effects of CO2 and O3 on vegetation have been widely investigated, very little is known about their interaction, and long-term studies on mature trees and higher trophic levels are extremely rare. Here we present evidence from the most widely distributed North American tree species, Populus tremuloides, showing that CO2 and O3, singly and in combination, affected productivity, physical and chemical leaf defences and, because of changes in plant quality, insect and disease populations. Our data show that feedbacks to plant growth from changes induced by CO2 and O3 in plant quality and pest performance are likely. Assessments of global change effects on forest ecosystems must therefore consider the interacting effects of CO2 and O3 on plant performance, as well as the implications of increased pest activity.