Cost-effectiveness of surveillance intervals after curative resection of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Major guidelines consistently recommend 5 years of postoperative surveillance for patients with colorectal cancer. However, they differ in their recommendations for examination intervals and whether they should vary according to disease stage. Furthermore, there are no reports on the cost-effectiveness of the different surveillance schedules. The objective of this study is to identify the most cost-effective surveillance intervals after curative resection of colorectal cancer. METHODS: A total of 3701 patients who underwent curative surgery for colorectal cancer at the National Cancer Center Hospital were included. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted for the five surveillance strategies with reference to the guidelines. Expected medical costs and quality-adjusted life years after colorectal cancer resection were calculated using a state-transition model by Monte Carlo simulation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life years gained was calculated for each strategy, with a maximum acceptable value of 43 500-52 200 USD (5-6 million JPY). RESULTS: Stages I, II and III included 1316, 1082 and 1303 patients, respectively, with 45, 140 and 338 relapsed cases. For patients with stage I disease, strategy 4 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $26 555/quality-adjusted life year) was considered to be the most cost-effective, while strategies 3 ($83 071/quality-adjusted life year) and 2 ($289 642/quality-adjusted life year) exceeded the threshold value. In stages II and III, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for strategy 3 was the most cost-effective option, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $18 358-22 230/quality-adjusted life year. CONCLUSIONS: In stage I, the cost-effectiveness of intensive surveillance is very poor and strategy 4 is the most cost-effective. Strategy 3 is the most cost-effective in stages II and III.

Prognostic impact of extramural venous invasion detected by contrast-enhanced CT colonography in colon cancer.

BACKGROUND: The impact of computed tomography (CT)-detected extramural venous invasion on the recurrence of colon cancer is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of extramural venous invasion diagnosed before surgery by contrast-enhanced CT colonography using three-dimensional multiplanar reconstruction images. METHODS: Patients with colon cancer staged greater than or equal to T2 and/or stage I-III who underwent contrast-enhanced CT colonography between 2013 and 2018 at the National Cancer Center Hospital in Japan were retrospectively investigated for CT-detected extramural venous invasion. Inter-observer agreement for the detection of CT-detected extramural venous invasion was evaluated and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted for recurrence-free survival using CT-TNM staging and CT-detected extramural venous invasion. Preoperative clinical variables were analysed using Cox regression for recurrence-free survival. RESULTS: Out of 922 eligible patients, 544 cases were analysed (50 (9.2 per cent) were diagnosed as positive for CT-detected extramural venous invasion and 494 (90.8 per cent) were diagnosed as negative for CT-detected extramural venous invasion). The inter-observer agreement for CT-detected extramural venous invasion had a κ coefficient of 0.830. The group positive for CT-detected extramural venous invasion had a median follow-up of 62.1 months, whereas the group negative for CT-detected extramural venous invasion had a median follow-up of 60.7 months. When CT-TNM stage was stratified according to CT-detected extramural venous invasion status, CT-T3 N(-)extramural venous invasion(+) had a poor prognosis compared with CT-T3 N(-)extramural venous invasion(-) and CT-stage I (5-year recurrence-free survival of 50.6 versus 89.3 and 90.1 per cent respectively; P < 0.001). In CT-stage III, the group positive for CT-detected extramural venous invasion also had a poor prognosis compared with the group negative for CT-detected extramural venous invasion (5-year recurrence-free survival of 52.0 versus 78.5 per cent respectively; P = 0.003). Multivariable analysis revealed that recurrence was associated with CT-T4 (HR 3.10, 95 per cent c.i. 1.85 to 5.20; P < 0.001) and CT-detected extramural venous invasion (HR 3.08, 95 per cent c.i. 1.90 to 5.00; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: CT-detected extramural venous invasion was found to be an independent predictor of recurrence and could be used in combination with preoperative TNM staging to identify patients at high risk of recurrence.

Prognostic Factors of Bone Metastases From Colorectal Cancer in the Era of Targeted Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Various prognostic factors have been reported for bone metastases from different primary tumor sites. However, bone metastases from colorectal cancer are very rare, and the prognostic factors have not been investigated in detail. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify prognostic factors of bone metastases from colorectal cancer. DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study using data from a prospectively collected database. SETTINGS: This study was conducted at a single tertiary care cancer center in Japan. PATIENTS: Patients who developed bone metastases from colorectal cancer during the study period among all patients who received initial treatment for colorectal cancer at our hospital between 2005 and 2016 (n = 4538) were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall survival after diagnosis of bone metastases from colorectal cancer was the main outcome measure. RESULTS: Ninety-four patients developed bone metastases during the study period. The 5-year overall survival rate was 11.0%. Multivariable analysis identified the following independent risk factors associated with poor prognosis: ≥70 years of age at diagnosis of bone metastases (HR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.24-4.95; p < 0.01), curative surgery not performed as initial treatment (HR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.24-5.19; p = 0.01), multiple bone metastases (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.30-4.57; p < 0.01), albumin level <3.7 g/dL (HR, 3.80; 95% CI, 1.95-7.39; p < 0.01), CEA ≥30 ng/mL (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.09-3.46; p = 0.02), and less than 3 chemotherapy options remaining at diagnosis of bone metastases (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.51-5.30; p < 0.01). The median survival times for patients with 0-2, 3, and 4-6 risk factors were 25.0, 8.8, and 4.3 months, respectively. LIMITATIONS: The main limitation is the single-center, retrospective design of this study. CONCLUSIONS: Our results may facilitate multidisciplinary decision-making in patients with bone metastases from colorectal cancer. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B930 . FACTORES PRONSTICOS DE LAS METSTASIS SEAS DEL CNCER COLORRECTAL EN LA ERA DE LA TERAPIA DIRIGIDA: ANTECEDENTES:Se han reportado varios factores pronósticos para las metástasis óseas de diferentes sitios de tumores primarios. Sin embargo, las metástasis óseas del cáncer colorrectal son muy raras y los factores pronósticos no se han investigado en detalle.OBJETIVO:Identificar los factores pronósticos de las metástasis óseas del cáncer colorrectal.DISEÑO:Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo utilizando datos de una base de datos recolectada prospectivamente.ENTORNO CLINICO:Un solo centro oncológico de atención terciaria en Japón.PACIENTES:Se seleccionaron pacientes que desarrollaron metástasis óseas de cáncer colorrectal durante el período de estudio entre todos los pacientes que recibieron tratamiento inicial para el cáncer colorrectal en nuestro hospital entre 2005 y 2016 (n = 4538).MEDIDA DE RESULTADO PRINCIPAL:Supervivencia general después del diagnóstico de metástasis óseas por cáncer colorrectal.RESULTADOS:Noventa y cuatro pacientes desarrollaron metástasis óseas, lo que representa el 2,0% de todos los pacientes con cáncer colorrectal que comenzaron el tratamiento durante el período de estudio. La tasa de supervivencia global a 5 años fue del 11,0 %. El análisis multivariable identificó los siguientes factores de riesgo independientes asociados con mal pronóstico: edad ≥70 años al momento del diagnóstico de metástasis óseas (hazard ratio 2,48, CI del 95 % 1,24-4,95, p < 0,01), cirugía curativa no realizada como tratamiento inicial (hazard ratio 2,54, CI 95 % 1,24-5,19, p = 0,01), metástasis óseas múltiples (hazard ratio 2,44, CI del 95 % 1,30-4,57, p < 0,01), nivel de albúmina <3,7 g/dL (hazard ratio 3,80, CI del 95 % 1,95 -7,39, p < 0,01), antígeno carcinoembrionario ≥30 ng/mL (hazard ratio 1,94, CI del 95 % 1,09-3,46, p = 0,02) y menos de 3 opciones de quimioterapia restantes al momento del diagnóstico de metástasis óseas (hazard ratio 2,83, 95 % CI 1,51-5,30, p < 0,01). La mediana de los tiempos de supervivencia para los pacientes con 0-2, 3 y 4-6 factores de riesgo fue de 25,0, 8,8 y 4,3 meses, respectivamente.LIMITACIONES:Diseño retrospectivo de un solo centro.CONCLUSIÓN:Nuestros resultados pueden facilitar la toma de decisiones multidisciplinares en pacientes con metástasis óseas de cáncer colorrectal. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B930 . (Traducción- Dr. Francisco M. Abarca-Rendon ).

Surveillance Strategy after Curative Resection for Oesophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Using the Hazard Function.

BACKGROUND: The optimal surveillance period and frequency after curative resection for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) remain unclear, and current guidelines are mainly based on traditional Kaplan-Meier analyses of cumulative incidence rather than risk analysis. The aim of this study was to determine a suitable follow-up surveillance program following oesophagectomy for OSCC using the hazard function. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients who underwent curative resection for OSCC between 2000 and 2014 were retrospectively analyzed. The changes in the estimated hazard rates (HRs) of recurrence over time were analyzed according to tumour-node-metastasis stage. RESULTS: Four hundred seventy-eight (40.2%) patients experienced recurrence during the follow-up period (median, 116.5 months). The risk of recurrence peaked at 9.2 months after treatment (HR = 0.0219) and then decreased to half the peak value at 24 months post-surgery. The HRs for Stage I and II patients were low (< 0.007) post-treatment. The HR for Stage III patients peaked at 9.9 months (HR = 0.031) and the hazard curve declined to a plateau at 30 months. Furthermore, the HR peaked at 10.8 months (HR = 0.052) in Stage IV patients and then gradually declined from 50 months. CONCLUSIONS: According to tumour-node-metastasis stage, changes in the HRs of postoperative recurrence in OSCC varied significantly. Intensive surveillance should be undertaken for 3 years in Stage III patients and for 4 years in Stage IV patients, followed by annual screening. For Stage I OSCC patients, a reduction in the surveillance intensity could be taken into consideration.

Evaluation of Recurrence Risk After Curative Resection for Patients With Stage I to III Colorectal Cancer Using the Hazard Function: Retrospective Analysis of a Single-institution Large Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate transitions of recurrence hazard and peak recurrence time in patients with nonmetastatic CRC using the hazard function. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: A postoperative surveillance period of 5 years is consistent across major guidelines for patients with nonmetastatic CRC, but surveillance intervals differ. Estimates of instantaneous conditional recurrence rate can help set appropriate intervals. METHODS: The study population consisted of 4330 patients with stage I to III CRC who underwent curative resection at the National Cancer Center Hospital between January 2000 and December 2013. Hazard rates of recurrence were calculated using the hazard function. RESULTS: Recurrence rates in patients with stage I, II, and III CRC were 4% (50/1432), 11% (136/1231), and 25% (424/1667), respectively. The hazard curve for stage I was relatively flat and hazard rates were consistently low (<0.0015) for 5 years after surgery. The hazard curve for stage II had a peak hazard rate of 0.0046 at 13.7 months, after which the curve had a long hem to the right. The hazard curve for stage III had an earlier and higher peak than that of stage II (0.0105 at 11.6 months), with a long hem to the right. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in recurrence hazard for CRC patients varied considerably by stage. Our findings suggest that short-interval surveillance might be unnecessary for stage I patients for the first 3 years after surgery, whereas short-interval surveillance for the first 3 years should be considered for stage III patients.

Recurrence hazard of rectal cancer compared with colon cancer by adjuvant chemotherapy status: a nationwide study in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of stage III colon cancer using the hazard function demonstrated that the risk of recurrence in patients with adjuvant chemotherapy never exceeded that of patients without adjuvant chemotherapy. However, it is unclear whether the same can be said for rectal cancer patients and whether adjuvant chemotherapy reduces recurrence. This study aimed to compare the recurrence hazard of stage III rectal cancer with that of colon cancer by adjuvant chemotherapy status using the hazard function, a method that allows for the assessment of instantaneous risk of recurrence over time. METHODS: This retrospective nationwide study consisted of 10,356 patients with stage III colorectal cancer who underwent curative resection between January 1997 and December 2012 in Japan. Recurrence hazards of rectal and colon cancers were compared between patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy and those who were not. Analyses in which recurrence was divided into local and distant recurrence were also performed. RESULTS: The hazard rate of recurrence in rectal cancer patients with adjuvant chemotherapy was consistently lower throughout the follow-up period, and the peak time of recurrence later, compared to patients without adjuvant chemotherapy (peaked at 15.7 vs. 7.1 months). Adjuvant chemotherapy also strongly suppressed distant recurrence but not local recurrence in rectal cancer patients. Similar results were observed in colon cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results using nationwide real-world data in Japan suggest that, similar to what is observed in colon cancer patients, adjuvant chemotherapy delays the peak of recurrence and suppresses distant recurrence in stage III rectal cancer patients.