Kalman-based compartmental estimation for covid-19 pandemic using advanced epidemic model.

The practicality of administrative measures for covid-19 prevention is crucially based on quantitative information on impacts of various covid-19 transmission influencing elements, including social distancing, contact tracing, medical facilities, vaccine inoculation, etc. A scientific approach of obtaining such quantitative information is based on epidemic models of S I R family. The fundamental S I R model consists of S-susceptible, I-infected, and R-recovered from infected compartmental populations. To obtain the desired quantitative information, these compartmental populations are estimated for varying metaphoric parametric values of various transmission influencing elements, as mentioned above. This paper introduces a new model, named S E I R R P V model, which, in addition to the S and I populations, consists of the E-exposed, R e -recovered from exposed, R-recovered from infected, P-passed away, and V-vaccinated populations. Availing of this additional information, the proposed S E I R R P V model helps in further strengthening the practicality of the administrative measures. The proposed S E I R R P V model is nonlinear and stochastic, requiring a nonlinear estimator to obtain the compartmental populations. This paper uses cubature Kalman filter (CKF) for the nonlinear estimation, which is known for providing an appreciably good accuracy at a fairly small computational demand. The proposed S E I R R P V model, for the first time, stochastically considers the exposed, infected, and vaccinated populations in a single model. The paper also analyzes the non-negativity, epidemic equilibrium, uniqueness, boundary condition, reproduction rate, sensitivity, and local and global stability in disease-free and endemic conditions for the proposed S E I R R P V model. Finally, the performance of the proposed S E I R R P V model is validated for real-data of covid-19 outbreak.

Freshwater Macrophytes: A Potential Source of Minerals and Fatty Acids for Fish, Poultry, and Livestock.

The freshwater macrophytes are abundant in tropical and subtropical climates. These macrophytes may be used as feed ingredients for fish and other animals. The nutritional value of twelve freshwater-cultured macrophytes was evaluated in the present study. Significantly higher crude protein (36.94-36.65%) and lipid (8.13-7.62%) were found in Lemna minor and Spirodela polyrhiza; ash content was significantly higher in Hydrilla verticillata, Wolffia globosa, and Pistia stratiotes (20.69-21.00%) compared with others. The highest levels of sodium, magnesium, chromium, and iron levels were recorded in P. stratiotes. H. verticillata was a rich source of copper, manganese, cobalt, and zinc; the contents of calcium, magnesium, strontium, and nickel were highest in S. polyrhiza. Selenium and potassium contents were higher in Salvinia natans and W. globosa, respectively. The n-6 and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) contents were significantly higher in W. globosa and Ipomoea aquatica, respectively compared with others. Linoleic and α-linolenic acids were dominant n-6 and n-3 PUFAs. The highest value (4.04) of n-3/n-6 was found in I. aquatica. The ratio ranged from 0.61 to 2.46 in other macrophytes. This study reveals that macrophytes are rich sources of minerals, n-6 and n-3 PUFAs.

Effect of Lemna minor supplemented diets on growth, digestive physiology and expression of fatty acids biosynthesis genes of Cyprinus carpio.

The potential nutritional value of duckweed Lemna minor (Lemnaceae) was evaluated for common carp Cyprinus carpio fry. Fish were fed diets containing five graded levels of duckweed: 0% (LM0, control), 5% (LM5), 10% (LM10), 15% (LM15) and 20% (LM20). The final weight and specific growth rate were significantly higher in LM15 and LM20 diets fed fish compared to others. Feed conversion ratio was minimum in fish fed diet LM20. Amylase activity was significantly higher in LM0 treatment. Total protease, trypsin and chymotrypsin activities showed linear relationships with the increased level of duckweed in the diet. Protein and essential amino acids contents were significantly higher in carp fed diets LM15 and LM20 compared to others. Lipid content was significantly higher in fish fed duckweed-based diets compared to control. A direct relationship was found between the inclusion level of duckweed in the diet and n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid (LC-PUFA) content of carp. Contents of desaturated and elongated products of dietary linolenic acid (18:3n-3) including 20:4n-3, 20:5n-3, 22:5n-3 and 22:6n-3 increased in a graded manner with increasing dietary duckweed. The monounsaturated fatty acids and n-6 PUFA contents reduced significantly in fish fed duckweed. Expression of fads2d6, elovl2, elovl5 and fas were higher in carp fed diets LM10, LM15 and LM20 compared to control fish. The inclusion of L. minor in diet enhanced the nutritional value of carp by increasing protein, lipid, amino acids and n-3 PUFA contents.