A synthetic approach to the Holiday Climate Index for the Mediterranean Coast of Türkiye.

Climate change affects the comfort level of tourists visiting coastal areas. Researching these impacts is important for a more comprehensive understanding of climate change and for developing effective adaptation solutions. Considering this fact, the study derived the Holiday Climate Index (HCI: Coast, HCI: Urban, and HCI: Combined) in the Mediterranean coastal provinces of Türkiye from 1976 to 2020. Utilizing the derived indices, the effects of climate-related holiday comfort on the number of tourist arrivals as well as on overnight stays between 1976 and 2020 were examined by panel data analysis. The study examined how comfort patterns could change during the period 2026-2050 under the pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario. It was detected that the comfort level significantly and positively affects the number of arrivals and overnight stays of tourists. Besides, comfort levels were found to deteriorate in the period 2026-2050 compared to the reference period, 1976-2020. As the comfort conditions get worse, the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays is expected to decline in the future. It is envisaged that the results of the study can be useful for tourists, tourism professionals, operators, other stakeholders, and policymakers.

Impact of climate change and land cover dynamics on nitrate transport to surface waters.

The study investigated the impact of climate and land cover change on water quality. The novel contribution of the study was to investigate the individual and combined impacts of climate and land cover change on water quality with high spatial and temporal resolution in a basin in Turkey. The global circulation model MPI-ESM-MR was dynamically downscaled to 10-km resolution under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model stream flow and nitrate loads. The land cover model outputs that were produced by the Land Change Modeler (LCM) were used for these simulation studies. Results revealed that decreasing precipitation intensity driven by climate change could significantly reduce nitrate transport to surface waters. In the 2075-2100 period, nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) loads transported to surface water decreased by more than 75%. Furthermore, the transition predominantly from forestry to pastoral farming systems increased loads by about 6%. The study results indicated that fine-resolution land use and climate data lead to better model performance. Environmental managers can also benefit greatly from the LCM-based forecast of land use changes and the SWAT model's attribution of changes in water quality to land use changes.

Analysis of the impact of climate change on grapevines in Turkey using heat unit accumulation-based indices.

Temperature is the most important factor influencing grapevine phenology and yield. Various indices have been developed that deal with the temperature sums that grapevines are exposed to during growth and maturation. With the help of these indices, predictions are made about whether the grapes will grow in a certain region and the quality of the grapevines. In this study, the future impacts of climate change on viticultural conditions in Turkey were projected by using Huglin index (HI), Winkler index (WI), and cool night index (CI). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, HI, WI, and CI indices for the future period of 2022-2050 were calculated for Turkey at 10 km spatial resolution with the RegCM4.4 model and compared with the 1972-2000 reference period. As a result of the study, a substantial increase in CI, HI, and WI and at least one level of categorical change were observed in the climatic conditions of the next 30 years in Turkey. These categorical shifts in CI, HI, and WI indicate that there may be changes in the geographical pattern of grapevine species grown in Turkey as well as the aroma and quality.

Cytoplasmic-to-nuclear volume ratio affects AP-1 complex formation as an indicator of cell cycle responsiveness.

Cytoplasmic volume undergoes a series of changes during mitosis in eukaryotes; in turn, signaling events such as osmotic stress can regulate the cytoplasmic volume in cells. In some organisms, increase in cytoplasmic-to-nuclear volume ratio was seen to affect the growth potential in cells, however, the mechanistics of such a regulation, if at all present, was unclear. In a computational model, we have constructed a growth factor-induced signaling pathway leading to AP-1 heterodimer formation through transcriptional regulation, and analyzed the effects of increasing the cytoplasmic-to-nuclear ratio on c-jun transcription and AP-1 complex. We have observed that larger cytoplasmic volumes caused both an increase in the final AP-1 product and a delay in the time of AP-1 accumulation.

A computer-based model for the regulation of mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) activation.

Computer simulations and mathematical modeling of biological processes are becoming increasingly popular, and yet the complexity of the biochemical systems or the differences between experimental setups make it very difficult to establish a standard formula for these modeling projects. Before we can start using computer-based models for predictions or targeted experiment designs, it is very important to establish a reliable model on which those predictions can be based and experimentally tested. Here we attempt to present a computer model for the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling cascade which is consistent with previously published experimental results. In this study we have focused our attention to a generic MAPK ERK (extracellular signal-regulated kinase) pathway activated by epidermal growth factor (EGF) in an attempt to understand how receptors may achieve different activation kinetics of the MAPK signaling. We successfully show that the level of receptor expression is one key determinant in this regulation, and that the binding affinity of the active receptor to adaptor proteins can have a small but albeit direct effect on the downstream activation.