Stochasticity and Infectious Disease Dynamics: Density and Weather Effects on a Fungal Insect Pathogen.

In deterministic models of epidemics, there is a host abundance threshold above which the introduction of a few infected individuals leads to a severe epidemic. Studies of weather-driven animal pathogens often assume that abundance thresholds will be overwhelmed by weather-driven stochasticity, but tests of this assumption are lacking. We collected observational and experimental data for a fungal pathogen, Entomophaga maimaiga, that infects the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar. We used an advanced statistical-computing algorithm to fit mechanistic models to our data, such that different models made different assumptions about the effects of host density and weather on E. maimaiga epizootics (epidemics in animals). We then used Akaike information criterion analysis to choose the best model. In the best model, epizootics are driven by a combination of weather and host density, and the model does an excellent job of explaining the data, whereas models that allow only for weather effects or only for density-dependent effects do a poor job of explaining the data. Density-dependent transmission in our best model produces a host density threshold, but this threshold is strongly blurred by the stochastic effects of weather. Our work shows that host-abundance thresholds may be important even if weather strongly affects transmission, suggesting that epidemiological models that allow for weather have an important role to play in understanding animal pathogens. The success of our model means that it could be useful for managing the gypsy moth, an important pest of hardwood forests in North America.

Count your eggs before they invade: identifying and quantifying egg clutches of two invasive apple snail species (Pomacea).

Winning the war against invasive species requires early detection of invasions. Compared to terrestrial invaders, aquatic species often thrive undetected under water and do not garner notice until too late for early action. However, fortunately for managers, apple snails (Family Ampullariidae, Genus Pomacea) provide their own conspicuous sign of invasion in the form of vibrantly colored egg clutches. Managers can potentially use egg clutches laid in the riparian zone as a means of early detection and species identification. To facilitate such efforts, we quantified differences in characteristics (length, width, depth, mass, egg number) of field-laid clutches for the two most common invasive species of apple snail, P. canaliculata and P. maculata, in native and non-native populations. Pomacea canaliculata native and non-native populations differed noticeably only in width. Native P. maculata clutches possessed significantly greater width, mass and eggs numbers compared with native P. canaliculata. Non-native P. maculata clutches significantly exceeded all other populations in all measured characteristics. Consequently, these traits may successfully distinguish between species. Fecundity data also allowed us to develop models that accurately estimated the number of eggs per clutch for each species based on clutch dimensions. We tested one, two and three dimensional models of clutches, including rendering a clutch as either a complete ellipsoid or an ellipsoid intersected by a cylinder to represent the oviposition site. Model comparisons found the product of length and depth, with a different function for each population, best predicted egg number for both species. Comparisons of egg number to clutch volume and mass implied non-native P. canaliculata may be food limited, while non-native P. maculata appeared to produce such enormous clutches by having access to greater nutrients than the native population. With these new tools, researchers and managers can quickly identify, quantify and begin eradication of new non-native apple snail populations.