Identification of major hemorrhage in trauma patients in the prehospital setting: diagnostic accuracy and impact on outcome.

Background: Hemorrhage is the most common cause of potentially preventable death after injury. Early identification of patients with major hemorrhage (MH) is important as treatments are time-critical. However, diagnosis can be difficult, even for expert clinicians. This study aimed to determine how accurate clinicians are at identifying patients with MH in the prehospital setting. A second aim was to analyze factors associated with missed and overdiagnosis of MH, and the impact on mortality. Methods: Retrospective evaluation of consecutive adult (≥16 years) patients injured in 2019-2020, assessed by expert trauma clinicians in a mature prehospital trauma system, and admitted to a major trauma center (MTC). Clinicians decided to activate the major hemorrhage protocol (MHPA) or not. This decision was compared with whether patients had MH in hospital, defined as the critical admission threshold (CAT+): administration of ≥3 U of red blood cells during any 60-minute period within 24 hours of injury. Multivariate logistical regression analyses were used to analyze factors associated with diagnostic accuracy and mortality. Results: Of the 947 patients included in this study, 138 (14.6%) had MH. MH was correctly diagnosed in 97 of 138 patients (sensitivity 70%) and correctly excluded in 764 of 809 patients (specificity 94%). Factors associated with missed diagnosis were penetrating mechanism (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.7) and major abdominal injury (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.7 to 8.7). Factors associated with overdiagnosis were hypotension (OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.98 to 0.99), polytrauma (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.6), and diagnostic uncertainty (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.8 to 7.3). When MH was missed in the prehospital setting, the risk of mortality increased threefold, despite being admitted to an MTC. Conclusion: Clinical assessment has only a moderate ability to identify MH in the prehospital setting. A missed diagnosis of MH increased the odds of mortality threefold. Understanding the limitations of clinical assessment and developing solutions to aid identification of MH are warranted. Level of evidence: Level III-Retrospective study with up to two negative criteria. Study type: Original research; diagnostic accuracy study.

Updating and recalibrating causal probabilistic models on a new target population.

OBJECTIVE: Very often the performance of a Bayesian Network (BN) is affected when applied to a new target population. This is mainly because of differences in population characteristics. External validation of the model performance on different populations is a standard approach to test model's generalisability. However, a good predictive performance is not enough to show that the model represents the unique population characteristics and can be adopted in the new environment. METHODS: In this paper, we present a methodology for updating and recalibrating developed BN models - both their structure and parameters - to better account for the characteristics of the target population. Attention has been given on incorporating expert knowledge and recalibrating latent variables, which are usually omitted from data-driven models. RESULTS: The method is successfully applied to a clinical case study about the prediction of trauma-induced coagulopathy, where a BN has already been developed for civilian trauma patients and now it is recalibrated on combat casualties. CONCLUSION: The methodology proposed in this study is important for developing credible models that can demonstrate a good predictive performance when applied to a target population. Another advantage of the proposed methodology is that it is not limited to data-driven techniques and shows how expert knowledge can also be used when updating and recalibrating the model.

Methods used to evaluate usability of mobile clinical decision support systems for healthcare emergencies: a systematic review and qualitative synthesis.

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the methods and metrics used to evaluate the usability of mobile application Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSSs) used in healthcare emergencies. Secondary aims were to describe the characteristics and usability of evaluated CDSSs. Materials and Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted using Pubmed/Medline, Embase, Scopus, and IEEE Xplore databases. Quantitative data were descriptively analyzed, and qualitative data were described and synthesized using inductive thematic analysis. Results: Twenty-three studies were included in the analysis. The usability metrics most frequently evaluated were efficiency and usefulness, followed by user errors, satisfaction, learnability, effectiveness, and memorability. Methods used to assess usability included questionnaires in 20 (87%) studies, user trials in 17 (74%), interviews in 6 (26%), and heuristic evaluations in 3 (13%). Most CDSS inputs consisted of manual input (18, 78%) rather than automatic input (2, 9%). Most CDSS outputs comprised a recommendation (18, 78%), with a minority advising a specific treatment (6, 26%), or a score, risk level or likelihood of diagnosis (6, 26%). Interviews and heuristic evaluations identified more usability-related barriers and facilitators to adoption than did questionnaires and user testing studies. Discussion: A wide range of metrics and methods are used to evaluate the usability of mobile CDSS in medical emergencies. Input of information into CDSS was predominantly manual, impeding usability. Studies employing both qualitative and quantitative methods to evaluate usability yielded more thorough results. Conclusion: When planning CDSS projects, developers should consider multiple methods to comprehensively evaluate usability.

Diagnostic accuracy of clinical examination to identify life- and limb-threatening injuries in trauma patients.

BACKGROUND: Timely and accurate identification of life- and limb-threatening injuries (LLTIs) is a fundamental objective of trauma care that directly informs triage and treatment decisions. However, the diagnostic accuracy of clinical examination to detect LLTIs is largely unknown, due to the risk of contamination from in-hospital diagnostics in existing studies. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of initial clinical examination for detecting life- and limb-threatening injuries (LLTIs). Secondary aims were to identify factors associated with missed injury and overdiagnosis, and determine the impact of clinician uncertainty on diagnostic accuracy. METHODS: Retrospective diagnostic accuracy study of consecutive adult (≥ 16 years) patients examined at the scene of injury by experienced trauma clinicians, and admitted to a Major Trauma Center between 01/01/2019 and 31/12/2020. Diagnoses of LLTIs made on contemporaneous clinical records were compared to hospital coded diagnoses. Diagnostic performance measures were calculated overall, and based on clinician uncertainty. Multivariate logistic regression analyses identified factors affecting missed injury and overdiagnosis. RESULTS: Among 947 trauma patients, 821 were male (86.7%), median age was 31 years (range 16-89), 569 suffered blunt mechanisms (60.1%), and 522 (55.1%) sustained LLTIs. Overall, clinical examination had a moderate ability to detect LLTIs, which varied by body region: head (sensitivity 69.7%, positive predictive value (PPV) 59.1%), chest (sensitivity 58.7%, PPV 53.3%), abdomen (sensitivity 51.9%, PPV 30.7%), pelvis (sensitivity 23.5%, PPV 50.0%), and long bone fracture (sensitivity 69.9%, PPV 74.3%). Clinical examination poorly detected life-threatening thoracic (sensitivity 48.1%, PPV 13.0%) and abdominal (sensitivity 43.6%, PPV 20.0%) bleeding. Missed injury was more common in patients with polytrauma (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.62-2.07) or shock (systolic blood pressure OR 0.993, 95% CI 0.988-0.998). Overdiagnosis was more common in shock (OR 0.991, 95% CI 0.986-0.995) or when clinicians were uncertain (OR 6.42, 95% CI 4.63-8.99). Uncertainty improved sensitivity but reduced PPV, impeding diagnostic precision. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical examination performed by experienced trauma clinicians has only a moderate ability to detect LLTIs. Clinicians must appreciate the limitations of clinical examination, and the impact of uncertainty, when making clinical decisions in trauma. This study provides impetus for diagnostic adjuncts and decision support systems in trauma.

A comprehensive scoping review of Bayesian networks in healthcare: Past, present and future.

No comprehensive review of Bayesian networks (BNs) in healthcare has been published in the past, making it difficult to organize the research contributions in the present and identify challenges and neglected areas that need to be addressed in the future. This unique and novel scoping review of BNs in healthcare provides an analytical framework for comprehensively characterizing the domain and its current state. A literature search of health and health informatics literature databases using relevant keywords found 3810 articles that were reduced to 123. This was after screening out those presenting Bayesian statistics, meta-analysis or neural networks, as opposed to BNs and those describing the predictive performance of multiple machine learning algorithms, of which BNs were simply one type. Using the novel analytical framework, we show that: (1) BNs in healthcare are not used to their full potential; (2) a generic BN development process is lacking; (3) limitations exist in the way BNs in healthcare are presented in the literature, which impacts understanding, consensus towards systematic methodologies, practice and adoption; and (4) a gap exists between having an accurate BN and a useful BN that impacts clinical practice. This review highlights several neglected issues, such as restricted aims of BNs, ad hoc BN development methods, and the lack of BN adoption in practice and reveals to researchers and clinicians the need to address these problems. To map the way forward, the paper proposes future research directions and makes recommendations regarding BN development methods and adoption in practice.

Bayesian networks in healthcare: What is preventing their adoption?

There has been much research effort expended toward the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) in medical decision-making. However, because of the gap between developing an accurate BN and demonstrating its clinical usefulness, this has not resulted in any widespread BN adoption in clinical practice. This paper investigates this problem with the aim of finding an explanation and ways to address the problem through a comprehensive literature review of articles describing BNs in healthcare. Based on the literature collection that has been systematically narrowed down from 3810 to 116 most relevant articles, this paper analyses the benefits, barriers and facilitating factors (BBF) for implementing BN-based systems in healthcare using the ITPOSMO-BBF framework. A key finding is that works in the literature rarely consider barriers and even when these were identified they were not connected to facilitating factors. The main finding is that the barriers can be grouped into: (1) data inadequacies; (2) clinicians' resistance to new technologies; (3) lack of clinical credibility; (4) failure to demonstrate clinical impact; (5) absence of an acceptable predictive performance; and (6) absence of evidence for model's generalisability. The facilitating factors can be grouped into: (1) data collection improvements; (2) software and technological improvements; (3) having interpretable and easy to use BN-based systems; (4) clinical involvement in the development or review of the model; (5) investigation of model's clinical impact; (6) internal validation of the model's performance; and (7) external validation of the model. These groupings form a strong basis for a generic framework that could be used for formulating strategies for ensuring BN-based clinical decision-support system adoption in frontline care settings. The output of this review is expected to enhance the dialogue among researchers by providing a deeper understanding for the neglected issue of BN adoption in practice and promoting efforts for implementing BN-based systems.

Bayesian networks in healthcare: Distribution by medical condition.

Bayesian networks (BNs) have received increasing research attention that is not matched by adoption in practice and yet have potential to significantly benefit healthcare. Hitherto, research works have not investigated the types of medical conditions being modelled with BNs, nor whether there are any differences in how and why they are applied to different conditions. This research seeks to identify and quantify the range of medical conditions for which healthcare-related BN models have been proposed, and the differences in approach between the most common medical conditions to which they have been applied. We found that almost two-thirds of all healthcare BNs are focused on four conditions: cardiac, cancer, psychological and lung disorders. We believe there is a lack of understanding regarding how BNs work and what they are capable of, and that it is only with greater understanding and promotion that we may ever realise the full potential of BNs to effect positive change in daily healthcare practice.

Medical idioms for clinical Bayesian network development.

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models that have proven popular in medical applications. While numerous medical BNs have been published, most are presented fait accompli without explanation of how the network structure was developed or justification of why it represents the correct structure for the given medical application. This means that the process of building medical BNs from experts is typically ad hoc and offers little opportunity for methodological improvement. This paper proposes generally applicable and reusable medical reasoning patterns to aid those developing medical BNs. The proposed method complements and extends the idiom-based approach introduced by Neil, Fenton, and Nielsen in 2000. We propose instances of their generic idioms that are specific to medical BNs. We refer to the proposed medical reasoning patterns as medical idioms. In addition, we extend the use of idioms to represent interventional and counterfactual reasoning. We believe that the proposed medical idioms are logical reasoning patterns that can be combined, reused and applied generically to help develop medical BNs. All proposed medical idioms have been illustrated using medical examples on coronary artery disease. The method has also been applied to other ongoing BNs being developed with medical experts. Finally, we show that applying the proposed medical idioms to published BN models results in models with a clearer structure.

Data Visualisation in Midwifery: The Challenge of Seeing what Datasets Hide.

Information visualisation is transforming data into visual representations to convey information hidden within large datasets. Information visualisation in medicine is underdeveloped. In midwifery, the impact of different graphs on clinicians' and patients' understanding is not well understood. We investigate this gap and its potential consequences.

An incremental explanation of inference in Bayesian networks for increasing model trustworthiness and supporting clinical decision making.

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to 'hybrid' BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted.

Towards standardisation of evidence-based clinical care process specifications.

There is a strong push towards standardisation of treatment approaches, care processes and documentation of clinical practice. However, confusion persists regarding terminology and description of many clinical care process specifications which this research seeks to resolve by developing a taxonomic characterisation of clinical care process specifications. Literature on clinical care process specifications was analysed, creating the starting point for identifying common characteristics and how each is constructed and used in the clinical setting. A taxonomy for clinical care process specifications is presented. The De Bleser approach to limited clinical care process specifications characterisation was extended and each clinical care process specification is successfully characterised in terms of purpose, core elements and relationship to the other clinical care process specification types. A case study on the diagnosis and treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in the United Kingdom was used to evaluate the taxonomy and demonstrate how the characterisation framework applies. Standardising clinical care process specifications ensures that the format and content are consistent with expectations, can be read more quickly and high-quality information can be recorded about the patient. Standardisation also enables computer interpretability, which is important in integrating Learning Health Systems into the modern clinical environment. The approach presented allows terminologies for clinical care process specifications that were widely used interchangeably to be easily distinguished, thus, eliminating the existing confusion.

LAGOS: learning health systems and how they can integrate with patient care.

PROBLEM: Learning health systems (LHS) are an underexplored concept. How LHS will operate in clinical practice is not well understood. This paper investigates the relationships between LHS, clinical care process specifications (CCPS) and the established levels of medical practice to enable LHS integration into daily healthcare practice. METHODS: Concept analysis and thematic analysis were used to develop an LHS characterisation. Pathway theory was used to create a framework by relating LHS, CCPS, health information systems and the levels of medical practice. A case study approach evaluates the framework in an established health informatics project. RESULTS: Five concepts were identified and used to define the LHS learning cycle. A framework was developed with five pathways, each having three levels of practice specificity spanning population to precision medicine. The framework was evaluated through application to case studies not previously understood to be LHS. DISCUSSION: Clinicians show limited understanding of LHS, increasing resistance and limiting adoption and integration into care routine. Evaluation of the presented framework demonstrates that its use enables: (1) correct analysis and characterisation of LHS; (2) alignment and integration into the healthcare conceptual setting; (3) identification of the degree and level of patient application; and (4) impact on the overall healthcare system. CONCLUSION: This paper contributes a theoretical framework for analysis, characterisation and use of LHS. The framework allows clinicians and informaticians to correctly identify, characterise and integrate LHS within their daily routine. The overall contribution improves understanding, practice and evaluation of the LHS application in healthcare.

Spatial and temporal variations of childhood cancers: Literature review and contribution of the French national registry.

BACKGROUND: Significant increases in childhood cancer incidence since the 1970s have been consistently reported worldwide, but the persistence of the increase on recent periods is discussed. No conclusion can be drawn concerning the spatial variations of childhood cancer, either. This study is an in-depth investigation of the spatial and temporal variations of childhood cancer in France. An extensive review of all the studies published since 2000 on those issues is provided. METHODS: The study included 25 877 cases of childhood cancer registered nationwide over 2000-2014. The spatial heterogeneity (overdispersion, autocorrelation, overall heterogeneity) was tested, on two geographic scales, and two spatial scan methods were used to detect clusters of cases. The annual average percent change (AAPC) in incidence rate was estimated with Poisson regression models, and joinpoint analyses were considered. RESULTS: Glioma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma cases exhibited some spatial heterogeneity and two large clusters were detected. Overall, the incidence rate of childhood cancer was stable over 2000-2014 (AAPC = -0.1% [-0.3%; 0.2%]). A log-linear positive trend was significantly evidenced for gliomas other than pilocytic astrocytomas (AAPC = 1.8% [0.9%; 2.7%]), with some suggestion of a leveling-off at the end of the period, while Burkitt lymphoma and germ cell tumor incidence rates decreased (AAPC = -2.2% [-3.8%; -0.5%] and AAPC = -1.9% [-3.4%; -0.3%], respectively). No spatial heterogeneity or significant time variation was evidenced for other cancers. CONCLUSION: Several types of childhood cancer displayed some spatial heterogeneity and two large clusters were detected, the origins of which are to be investigated and might include differences in case ascertainment. Overall, the results do not support a sustained increase in incidence rates of childhood cancer in recent years.