Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

Background: Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent among the HIV-negative population and ranks first among the HIV-positive population. However, few studies have assessed tuberculosis trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or with an emphasis on HIV status. This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We obtained tuberculosis data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD 2019). We calculated the relative proportion of tuberculosis to all communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases by HIV status across the BRICS. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate cohort and period effects in tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019, and calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks. Findings: There were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths. Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease much slower than China's (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24 per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in 2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980. Interpretation: BRICS' actions on controlling tuberculosis achieved positive results, but the overall improvements were less than those in high-income Asia Pacific countries. BRICS and other high-burden countries should strengthen specified public health approaches and policies targeted at different priority groups in each country. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073573; 72074009), Peking University Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group.

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study.

Importance: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. Evidence Review: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. Findings: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. Conclusions and Relevance: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

Global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for young people's health during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Young people's health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young people's health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) includes annual assessments for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013, covering 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. We used the comparative risk assessment approach to assess how much of the burden of disease reported in a given year can be attributed to past exposure to a risk. We estimated attributable burden by comparing observed health outcomes with those that would have been observed if an alternative or counterfactual level of exposure had occurred in the past. We applied the same method to previous years to allow comparisons from 1990 to 2013. We cross-tabulated the quantiles of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by quintiles of DALYs annual increase from 1990 to 2013 to show rates of DALYs increase by burden. We used the GBD 2013 hierarchy of causes that organises 306 diseases and injuries into four levels of classification. Level one distinguishes three broad categories: first, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; second, non-communicable diseases; and third, injuries. Level two has 21 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, level three has 163 categories, and level four has 254 categories. FINDINGS: The leading causes of death in 2013 for young people aged 10-14 years were HIV/AIDS, road injuries, and drowning (25·2%), whereas transport injuries were the leading cause of death for ages 15-19 years (14·2%) and 20-24 years (15·6%). Maternal disorders were the highest cause of death for young women aged 20-24 years (17·1%) and the fourth highest for girls aged 15-19 years (11·5%) in 2013. Unsafe sex as a risk factor for DALYs increased from the 13th rank to the second for both sexes aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2013. Alcohol misuse was the highest risk factor for DALYs (7·0% overall, 10·5% for males, and 2·7% for females) for young people aged 20-24 years, whereas drug use accounted for 2·7% (3·3% for males and 2·0% for females). The contribution of risk factors varied between and within countries. For example, for ages 20-24 years, drug use was highest in Qatar and accounted for 4·9% of DALYs, followed by 4·8% in the United Arab Emirates, whereas alcohol use was highest in Russia and accounted for 21·4%, followed by 21·0% in Belarus. Alcohol accounted for 9·0% (ranging from 4·2% in Hong Kong to 11·3% in Shandong) in China and 11·6% (ranging from 10·1% in Aguascalientes to 14·9% in Chihuahua) of DALYs in Mexico for young people aged 20-24 years. Alcohol and drug use in those aged 10-24 years had an annual rate of change of >1·0% from 1990 to 2013 and accounted for more than 3·1% of DALYs. INTERPRETATION: Our findings call for increased efforts to improve health and reduce the burden of disease and risks for diseases in later life in young people. Moreover, because of the large variations between countries in risks and burden, a global approach to improve health during this important period of life will fail unless the particularities of each country are taken into account. Finally, our results call for a strategy to overcome the financial and technical barriers to adequately capture young people's health risk factors and their determinants in health information systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Community- and individual-level factors associated with smoking and heavy drinking among Aboriginal people in Canada.

OBJECTIVES: 1) To examine the association between place of residence (i.e., on- versus off-communities and between provinces) and daily smoking and heavy drinking among Aboriginal people in Canada; and 2) to identify community- and individual-level factors that may account for these associations. METHODS: Data were from the Aboriginal Peoples Survey (2001). The sample included 52,110 Aboriginal people (≥ 15 years of age). Community-level variables included: place of residence, community socio-economic status (SES) and perceived community social problems. Individual-level variables included: age, sex, education, income, employment status, marital status, Aboriginal heritage and social support. Multilevel logistic regressions were conducted to analyze the data. RESULTS: Living in First Nations communities (compared with living off-communities) was associated with daily smoking, and this association was accounted for by perceived community social problems. However, the association between Inuit communities and daily smoking remained after controlling for all covariates (odds ratio (OR) = 1.97, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.44-2.70). Residence in First Nations communities was associated with heavy drinking (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.17-2.04), however this risk became evident only after controlling for community SES, which was also positively associated with heavy drinking (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.26-1.69). Compared with Saskatchewan, Aboriginal people in Atlantic Provinces (OR = 2.80, 95% CI = 2.08-3.78) or Territories (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.01-1.92) were more likely to engage in heavy drinking. CONCLUSION: Studies are needed to better understand the increased risk for smoking in Inuit communities and heavy drinking in First Nations communities, Atlantic Provinces and Territories, and to identify possible reasons for the positive association between community SES and heavy drinking among Aboriginal people.

Association of urban slum residency with infant mortality and child stunting in low and middle income countries.

This study aimed to (i) examine the contextual influences of urban slum residency on infant mortality and child stunting over and above individual and household characteristics and (ii) identify factors that might modify any adverse effects. We obtained data from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 45 countries between 2000 and 2009. The respondents were women (15-49 years) and their children (0-59 months). Results showed that living in a slum neighborhood was associated with infant mortality (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.15-1.57) irrespective of individual and household characteristics and this risk was attenuated among children born to women who had received antenatal care from a health professional (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.63-0.99). Results also indicated that increasing child age exacerbated the risk for stunting associated with slum residency (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.16-1.23). The findings suggest that improving material circumstances in urban slums at the neighborhood level as well as increasing antenatal care coverage among women living in these neighborhoods could help reduce infant mortality and stunted child growth. The cumulative impact of long-term exposure to slum neighborhoods on child stunting should be corroborated by future studies.

Caesarean delivery and neonatal mortality rates in 46 low- and middle-income countries: a propensity-score matching and meta-analysis of Demographic and Health Survey data.

BACKGROUND: Previous research on the association between caesarean delivery (CD) and neonatal mortality has had methodological limitations and given conflicting results. We conducted a study to: (i) estimate the association between CD at the individual level and neonatal mortality rates (NMR) in 46 countries; and (ii) examine whether this association varies among countries according to country-level rates of CD or gross domestic product (GDP). METHODS: We obtained data from nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys of women aged 15-49 years and their children aged 0-59 months (N = 392 883). Propensity-score matching, meta-analysis, and meta-regression were used to address the study objectives. RESULTS: The pooled odds ratio (OR) for the association between individual level CD and NMR in 46 countries was 1.67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48-1.89), with moderate heterogeneity (I(2) = 39%). A meta-analysis of subgroups indicated that CD at the individual level was positively associated with NMR in countries with low (OR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.71-2.33, I(2) = 8.5%) and medium (OR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.29-1.82, I(2) = 24%) rates of CD. There was substantial heterogeneity of the effects of CD among countries with high rates of CD (I(2) = 63%). Results of meta-regression showed that the association of individual-level CD with NMR depended upon country-level rates of CD. Compared with countries with high rates of CD, the OR of the NMR associated with individual-level CD in countries with low rates of CD was estimated to increased by a factor of 1.48 (95% CI 1.09-1.97). CONCLUSIONS: Studies are needed to better understand the risks posed by CD in countries with low and medium rates of CD and to identify possible reasons for the heterogeneity in effects of CD among countries with high rates of CD.

Age at immigration to Canada and the occurrence of mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders.

OBJECTIVE: The process of migration and resettlement has been associated with increased risk for psychiatric illness. Our study sought to examine the association between age at immigration and risk for mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders (SUDs) among adult immigrants in Canada. METHOD: Data from the Canadian Community Health Survey: Mental Health and Well-Being, a cross-sectional study of psychiatric disorder conducted in 2002, was used to identify a representative sample of adult immigrants in Canada (n = 4946). Logistic regression was used to examine the association between age at immigration (0 to 5 years, 6 to 17 years, and 18 years and older) and 12-month prevalence of mood and anxiety disorders, and SUDs. RESULTS: Immigrants who arrived prior to age 6 years reported the highest risk for mood (OR 3.41; 95% CI 1.7 to 7.0) and anxiety disorders (OR 6.89; 95% CI 3.5 to 13.5), compared with those who immigrated at the age of 18 years or older, after adjusting for covariates, including duration of residence. CONCLUSIONS: Younger age at immigration was associated with increased risk of having a current mood disorder, anxiety disorder, or SUD. These findings speak to the importance of developing and evaluating targeted prevention programs for young immigrant children and adolescents.

Evaluation of the association between long-lasting insecticidal nets mass distribution campaigns and child malaria in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria carries the greatest malaria burden among countries in the world. As part of the National Malaria Control Strategic Plan, free long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were distributed in 14 states of Nigeria through mass campaigns led by different organizations (the World Bank, UNICEF, or the Global Fund) between May 2009 and August 2010. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between LLIN distribution campaigns and child malaria in Nigeria. METHODS: Data were from the Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey which was carried out from October to December 2010 on a nationally representative sample of households. Participants were women aged 15-49 years and their children aged less than five years (N = 4082). The main outcome measure was the presence or absence of malaria parasites in blood samples of children (6-59 months). RESULTS: Compared with children living in communities with no campaigns, those in the campaign areas were less likely to test positive for malaria after adjusting for geographic locations, community- and individual-level characteristics including child-level use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). The protective effects were statistically significant for the World Bank Booster Project areas (OR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.04-0.73) but did not reach statistical significance for other campaign areas. Results also showed that community-level wealth (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.34-0.76), community-level maternal knowledge regarding malaria prevention (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.50-0.97), and child-level use of ITNs (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.63-0.99) were negatively associated with child malaria. CONCLUSIONS: The observed protective effects on child malaria of these campaigns (statistically significant in the World Bank Booster Project areas and non-significant in the other areas) need to be corroborated by future effectiveness studies. Results also show that improving community-level maternal knowledge through appropriate channels might be helpful in preventing child malaria in Nigeria.

Predictors of surgical outcomes following anterior transposition of ulnar nerve for cubital tunnel syndrome: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: Although cubital tunnel syndrome is the second most common nerve entrapment neuropathy, few studies explore potential predictor(s) of surgical outcomes. The purpose of this systematic review was to determine which factors affect the postoperative outcome for patients who undertake anterior transposition of the ulnar nerve. METHODS: We included all studies reporting predictor(s) of clinical, electrophysiological study, or functional outcome after any anterior transposition of the ulnar nerve. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL from 1980 to April 2011 and reference lists of articles. Two reviewers performed study selection, assessment of methodological quality, and data extraction independently of each other. RESULTS: We assessed 26 studies including 2 randomized controlled trials, 10 cohort studies, and 14 case series. Overall, the methodological quality of the studies ranged from low to moderate. Six aspects of prognosis were sufficiently studied for a narrative evidence synthesis on age, duration of symptom, severity of operative status, preoperative electrodiagnostic testing results, type of surgery, and work compensation status. Evidence was conflicting across studies in terms of both the direction and intensity of the impact of these 6 potential predictors on surgical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Because of conflicting results, we were unable to conclude which predictor(s) affect surgical outcomes after anterior transposition of the ulnar nerve. Surgeons who are aware of only a limited number of prognostic studies and their limited scope of evidence may not appreciate the extent of the inconsistency about whether factors commonly viewed as prognostic actually have a noteworthy impact on outcomes achieved. Such factors may be identified in the future with higher-quality studies, because limitations in the current research undoubtedly contribute to the controversies observed.

Biofuel smoke and child anemia in 29 developing countries: a multilevel analysis.

PURPOSE: In this study we examined the effect of biofuel smoke exposure at the national and child levels on child anemia. METHODS: Data are from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2007. The respondents were women (15-49 years) and their children (0-59 months) (n = 117,454) in 29 developing countries. RESULTS: In multinomial logistic regression models, both moderate and high exposure to biofuel smoke at the country level are associated with moderate/severe anemia (odds ratio [OR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.28-4.36 vs OR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.37-5.72) after adjusting for covariates. Exposure to biofuel smoke at home is associated with mild anemia (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.13), and there are interactions between biofuel smoke exposure and child age in months on mild anemia (OR, 1.004; 95% CI, 1.002-1.006) and moderate/severe anemia (OR, 1.006; 95% CI, 1.004-1.008). There are also interactions between biofuel smoke exposure at home and diarrhea on mild anemia (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10-1.34) and on moderate/severe anemia (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.22); and fever on moderate/severe anemia (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.22-1.45). CONCLUSIONS: Given the increasing number of people relying on biofuels in developing countries, policies and programs are necessary to protect children from being exposed to this harmful smoke at home.

Maternal smoking, biofuel smoke exposure and child height-for-age in seven developing countries.

BACKGROUND: Children are at high risk of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and biofuel smoke at home in developing countries. This study examines whether exposure to cigarette and biofuel smoke is associated with height-for-age of children (0-59 months) in seven developing countries. METHODS: The data are from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Cambodia, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jordan, Moldova, Namibia and Nepal between 2005 and 2007. The respondents were women (15-49 years) and their children in seven countries (n = 28 439), and men (15-59 years) from four countries. The outcome is a physical measurement of child height-for-age in standard deviation units. RESULTS: Multilevel regression analysis showed that the country of residence modified the association between maternal smoking and child height-for-age. Exposure to maternal smoking was associated negatively with child height-for-age in Cambodia, Namibia and Nepal, whereas it was not in other countries. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that biofuel smoke exposure was associated with a decrease in child height-for-age [b = -0.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.19 to -0.07, P < 0.001]. No interaction was found between country of residence and biofuel smoke exposure. Multinomial logistic regression results showed that biofuel smoke exposure was associated with both stunting [odds ratio (OR) = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08-1.44, P = 0.002) and severe stunting (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.02-1.59, P = 0.04), after controlling for covariates. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that exposure to maternal smoking and biofuel smoke may contribute to growth deficiencies in young children. Programmes are needed to ensure smoke-free home environments for children.

Artemisinin derivatives versus quinine for cerebral malaria in African children: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To summarize the existing evidence on the efficacy of artemether and arteether, two artemisinin derivatives, versus quinine for treating cerebral malaria in children. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the http://clinicaltrials.gov web site. We also checked the reference lists of existing systematic reviews and of all trials identified by the above methods. We searched exclusively for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing artemether/arteether with quinine for treating cerebral malaria in children. Two independent reviewers assessed study eligibility and trial quality and extracted the data. FINDINGS: Nine RCTs were included in the analysis, and all were from Africa. Five had adequate allocation concealment. Seven trials compared artemether with quinine (1220 children), and two compared arteether with quinine (194 children). No statistically significant difference was found between artemisinin derivatives and quinine in preventing mortality (relative risk, RR: 0.91; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.73-1.14; I(2): 0%). The quality of the evidence, as assessed by the Grade evidence profile, was moderate. The only serious adverse event was seen in a patient in the quinine group who developed fatal black water fever. CONCLUSION: Artemisinin derivatives are not inferior to quinine in preventing death in children with cerebral malaria.