Prediction of dengue outbreaks in Mexico based on entomological, meteorological and demographic data.

Dengue virus has shown a complex pattern of transmission across Latin America over the last two decades. In an attempt to explain the permanence of the disease in regions subjected to drought seasons lasting over six months, various hypotheses have been proposed. These include transovarial transmission, forest reservoirs and asymptomatic human virus carriers. Dengue virus is endemic in Mexico, a country in which half of the population is seropositive. Seropositivity is a risk factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever upon a second encounter with the dengue virus. Since Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever can cause death, it is important to develop epidemiological mathematical tools that enable policy makers to predict regions potentially at risk for a dengue epidemic. We formulated a mathematical model of dengue transmission, considering both human behavior and environmental conditions pertinent to the transmission of the disease. When data on past human population density, temperature and rainfall were entered into this model, it provided an accurate picture of the actual spread of dengue over recent years in four states (representing two climactic conditions) in Mexico.

Scattering approach to fidelity decay in closed systems and parametric level correlations.

Based on an exact analytical approach to describe scattering fidelity experiments [Köber et al., Phys. Rev. E 82, 036207 (2010)], we obtain an expression for the fidelity amplitude decay of quantum chaotic or diffusive systems under arbitrary Hermitian perturbations. This allows us to rederive previous separately obtained results in a simpler and unified manner, as is shown explicitly for the case of a global perturbation. The general expression is also used to derive a so far unpublished exact analytical formula for the case of a moving S-wave scatterer. In the second part of the paper, we extend a relation between fidelity decay and parametric level correlations from the universal case of global perturbations to an arbitrary combination of global and local perturbations. Thereby, the relation becomes a versatile tool for the analysis of unknown perturbations.