Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling of the Dynamics of COVID-19 Deaths in Peru.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of the disease is crucial for effective public health interventions. This study aims to analyze COVID-19 data in Peru using a Bayesian spatio-temporal generalized linear model to elucidate mortality patterns and assess the impact of vaccination efforts. Leveraging data from 194 provinces over 651 days, our analysis reveals heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns in COVID-19 mortality rates. Higher vaccination coverage is associated with reduced mortality rates, emphasizing the importance of vaccination in mitigating the pandemic's impact. The findings underscore the value of spatio-temporal data analysis in understanding disease dynamics and guiding targeted public health interventions.

An exploratory analysis of PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratio during 2016-2018 in Metropolitan Lima.

Aerosols (PM 2.5 and PM 10 ) represent one of the most critical pollutants due to their negative effects on human health. This research analyzed the relationship of PM and its PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratios with climatic variables in the austral spring (2016-2018) in Metropolitan Lima. Overall, there was an average PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratio of 0.33 with fluctuations from 0.30 to 0.35. However, there have also been high point values that reached ratios greater than one. This situation indicates a moderate condition of contamination by particulate matter with a predominance of coarse aerosols in spring, with an increasing trend over the years. The locations Ate and Villa Maria del Triunfo, especially Ate, presented poor quality conditions. Thursdays showed outstanding pollution peaks by PM 10 , and a decrease is visible on Sundays. On the other hand, the PM 2.5 showed a similar pattern every day, including Sundays. The maximum peaks occurred in the morning and night hours. The increase in anthropogenic emissions associated with the formation of secondary aerosols has been evident, being the case of the location Campo de Marte, the one that had a significant increase in ratios PM 2.5 /PM 10 , which confirms a greater intensity of secondary formations of carbonaceous particles from industrial oil sources, vehicle exhaust, as well as aerosols from metal smelting and biomass burning. There were negative correlations of the ratios with PM 10 , temperature, wind speed, and direction, and positive correlations with PM 2.5 and relative humidity. Contour lines were successfully developed that demonstrated the interaction of climate with PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratios. This will deepen the exploration of emission sources and modeling, which allows for optimizing air quality indices to control emissions and adequately manage air quality in Metropolitan Lima.

Spatio-temporal visualization and forecasting of [Formula: see text] in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais.

Air pollution due to air contamination by gases, liquids, and solid particles in suspension, is a great environmental and public health concern nowadays. An important type of air pollution is particulate matter with a diameter of 10 microns or less ([Formula: see text]) because one of the determining factors that affect human health is the size of particles in the atmosphere due to the degree of permanence and penetration they have in the respiratory system. Therefore, it is extremely interesting to monitor and understand the behavior of [Formula: see text] concentrations so that they do not exceed the established critical levels. In this work, we will study the [Formula: see text] concentrations in all available monitoring stations in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. To better understand its behavior, we will provide a spatio-temporal visualization of the [Formula: see text] concentrations. Besides the descriptive and visualization analysis, we consider six standard and advanced time series models that will be used to fit and forecast [Formula: see text] concentrations, with application to three locations, one in Belo Horizonte, the Minas Gerais state capital, and the monitoring stations with the lowest and highest average [Formula: see text] concentration levels.

A machine learning approach to analyse ozone concentration in metropolitan area of Lima, Peru.

The main objective of this study is to model the concentration of ozone in the winter season on air quality through machine learning algorithms, detecting its impact on population health. The study area involves four monitoring stations: Ate, San Borja, Santa Anita and Campo de Marte, all located in Metropolitan Lima during the years 2017, 2018 and 2019. Exploratory, correlational and predictive approaches are presented. The exploratory results showed that ATE is the station with the highest prevalence of ozone pollution. Likewise, in an hourly scale analysis, the pollution peaks were reported at 00:00 and 14:00. Finally, the machine learning models that showed the best predictive capacity for adjusting the ozone concentration were the linear regression and support vector machine.

Statistical modeling approach for PM10 prediction before and during confinement by COVID-19 in South Lima, Perú.

A total of 188,859 meteorological-PM[Formula: see text] data validated before (2019) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) were used. In order to predict PM[Formula: see text] in two districts of South Lima in Peru, hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal variations of the data were analyzed. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear/nonlinear modeling were applied. The results showed the highest annual average PM[Formula: see text] for San Juan de Miraflores (SJM) (PM[Formula: see text]-SJM: 78.7 [Formula: see text]g/m[Formula: see text]) and the lowest in Santiago de Surco (SS) (PM[Formula: see text]-SS: 40.2 [Formula: see text]g/m[Formula: see text]). The PCA showed the influence of relative humidity (RH)-atmospheric pressure (AP)-temperature (T)/dew point (DP)-wind speed (WS)-wind direction (WD) combinations. Cool months with higher humidity and atmospheric instability decreased PM[Formula: see text] values in SJM and warm months increased it, favored by thermal inversion (TI). Dust resuspension, vehicular transport and stationary sources contributed more PM[Formula: see text] at peak times in the morning and evening. The Multiple linear regression (MLR) showed the best correlation (r = 0.6166), followed by the three-dimensional model LogAP-LogWD-LogPM[Formula: see text] (r = 0.5753); the RMSE-MLR (12.92) exceeded that found in the 3D models (RMSE [Formula: see text]) and the NSE-MLR criterion (0.3804) was acceptable. PM[Formula: see text] prediction was modeled using the algorithmic approach in any scenario to optimize urban management decisions in times of pandemic.

Air quality assessment and pollution forecasting using artificial neural networks in Metropolitan Lima-Peru.

The prediction of air pollution is of great importance in highly populated areas because it directly impacts both the management of the city's economic activity and the health of its inhabitants. This work evaluates and predicts the Spatio-temporal behavior of air quality in Metropolitan Lima, Peru, using artificial neural networks. The conventional feedforward backpropagation known as Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and the Recurrent Artificial Neural network known as Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM) were implemented for the hourly prediction of [Formula: see text] based on the past values of this pollutant and three meteorological variables obtained from five monitoring stations. The models were validated using two schemes: The Hold-Out and the Blocked-Nested Cross-Validation (BNCV). The simulation results show that periods of moderate [Formula: see text] concentration are predicted with high precision. Whereas, for periods of high contamination, the performance of both models, the MLP and LSTM, were diminished. On the other hand, the prediction performance improved slightly when the models were trained and validated with the BNCV scheme. The simulation results showed that the models obtained a good performance for the CDM, CRB, and SMP monitoring stations, characterized by a moderate to low level of contamination. However, the results show the difficulty of predicting this contaminant in those stations that present critical contamination episodes, such as ATE and HCH. In conclusion, the LSTM recurrent artificial neural networks with BNCV adapt more precisely to critical pollution episodes and have better predictability performance for this type of environmental data.

¿Qué tan válidas y confiables son las interpretaciones derivadas del Florida Patient Acceptance Survey en español? / How valid and reliable are the interpretations arising from the Spanish version of the Florida Patient Acceptance Survey?

Sr. Editor: Cada vez es más frecuente realizar investigaciones que examinen las evidencias de validez y fiabilidad de instrumentos de medida, con el fin de garantizar su uso en ciencias de la salud. Un ejemplo de ello es el importante estudio de Castillo-Sierra, González-Consuegra y Olaya-Sánchez1, que tuvo como objetivo obtener una versión en español, adaptada al contexto colombiano, del Florida Patient Acceptance Survey (FPAS) que contara con propiedades psicométricas adecuadas y con una estructura similar al instrumento original. Para esto, los autores evalúan la validez facial y de contenido, así como la confiabilidad mediante el coeficiente alfa de Cronbach. Sin embargo, es necesario aclarar algunas limitaciones metodológicas observadas en el estudio y plantear procedimientos alternativos y más acordes con lo sugerido en la literatura psicométrica actual.