Prevalence and incidence of clinically recognized cases of Type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents in Rwanda, Africa.

AIMS: To determine prevalence and incidence estimates for clinically recognized cases of Type 1 diabetes from the Life For a Child Program (LFAC) with onset < 26 years in six representative districts, and the capital, of Rwanda. METHODS: Cases were identified from the LFAC registry and visits to district hospitals. Denominators were calculated from district-level population surveys. Period prevalence data were collected from 1 August 2011 to 31 July 2012 and annual incidence rates were calculated, retrospectively, for 2004-2011. Ninety-five per cent confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: The prevalence of known Type 1 diabetes in seven districts in Rwanda for ages < 26 years was 16.4 [95% CI 14.6-18.4]/100 000 and for < 15 years was 4.8 [3.5-6.4]/100 000. Prevalence was higher in females (18.5 [15.8-21.4]/100 000) than males (14.1 [11.8-16.7]/100 000; P = 0.01) and rates increased with age. The annual incidence rate for those < 26 years was stable between 2007 and 2011 with a mean incidence over that time of 2.7 [2.0-3.7]/100 000 ( < 15 years = 1.2 [0.5-2.0]/100 000). Incidence rates were higher in females than males and peaked in males at ages 17 and 22 years and in females at age 18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our report of known Type 1 diabetes cases shows lower incidence and prevalence rates in Rwanda than previously reported in the USA and most African countries. Incidence of recognized cases has increased over time, but has recently stabilized. However, the likelihood of missed cases due to death before diagnosis and misdiagnosis is high and therefore more definitive studies are needed.

Characterizing sudden death and dead-in-bed syndrome in Type 1 diabetes: analysis from two childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes registries.

AIMS: Type 1 diabetes mellitus increases the risk for sudden unexplained death, generating concern that diabetes processes and/or treatments underlie these deaths. Young (< 50 years) and otherwise healthy patients who are found dead in bed have been classified as experiencing 'dead-in-bed' syndrome. METHODS: We thus identified all unwitnessed deaths in two related registries (the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County) yielding 1319 persons with childhood-onset (age < 18 years) Type 1 diabetes diagnosed between 1965 and 1979. Cause of death was determined by a Mortality Classification Committee (MCC) of at least two physician epidemiologists, based on the death certificate and additional records surrounding the death. RESULTS: Of the 329 participants who had died, the Mortality Classification Committee has so far reviewed and assigned a final cause of death to 255 (78%). Nineteen (8%) of these were sudden unexplained deaths (13 male) and seven met dead-in-bed criteria. The Mortality Classification Committee adjudicated cause of death in the seven dead-in-bed persons as: diabetic coma (n =4), unknown (n=2) and cardiomyopathy (n=1, found on autopsy). The three dead-in-bed individuals who participated in a clinical study had higher HbA(1c) , lower BMI and higher daily insulin dose compared with both those dying from other causes and those surviving. CONCLUSIONS: Sudden unexplained death in Type 1 diabetes seems to be increased 10-fold and associated with male sex, while dead-in-bed individuals have a high HbA(1c) and insulin dose and low BMI. Although sample size is too small for definitive conclusions, these results suggest specific sex and metabolic factors predispose to sudden unexplained death and dead-in-bed death.

Effectiveness of research training workshop taught by traditional and video-teleconference methods in a developing country.

The developing countries are currently facing a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases. Physician-scientists, trained in patient care and research skills are crucial in performing cutting-edge clinical research in the developing countries. A major unmet challenge has been the lack of local expertise and the increasing problem of 'brain drain'. The current study was an effort to present and assess a model of research training to health-care professionals in Pakistan in order to increase the research skills. The objective of the current study was to assess the effectiveness of two different methods of research training. An epidemiologic research training workshop was offered to health-care professionals in Pakistan by face-to-face (F2F) and video-teleconferencing (VTC) methods. A total of 38 F2F and 18 VTC participants were included in the workshop which was conducted by research faculty from the University of Pittsburgh. To assess knowledge, pre- and post-test were done. Within each group, paired sample T-test showed significant improvement in scores after the completion of workshop (p<0.001 for F2F and VTC). In the F2F group, mean scores increased from 11.13 (pre-test) to 15.08 (post-test) and in the VTC group, scores increased from 10.67 (pre-test) to 13.22 (post-test). Two sample T-test was found statistically significant (p<0.001). We present a model for training physicians in public health by providing in-house research skills training which can be used to strengthen the local capacity and reduce increasing problems of brain drain.

Strategic plan: building a international strategy for risk reduction supercourse.

There is an important need to develop a global expert disaster network for Mitigating against disasters such the Chi-Chi Earthquake, the Tsunami, Avian flu. This systems needs to target both man made and natural disasters. We propose the building of a Global Health Disaster Network, with advanced features such as educational capabilities, and expert knowledge reachback. We provide a strategic plan to building a global disaster Network and Mitigation system.

Estimating the lesbian population: a capture-recapture approach.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the number of women who identify as lesbian. Estimates from the US range from 1% to nearly 10%. Accurate estimates are critical in order to meet lesbian's healthcare needs and to address health problems that may be more prevalent among them. This study used capture-recapture methods to estimate the lesbian population of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. DESIGN: Mailing lists from four sources were used to identify lesbians. The capture-recapture method and log-linear modelling were used to estimate the number of lesbians in the defined geographical area, and the percentage of the female population they comprised there was determined through census data. SETTING: Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA. RESULTS: A total of 2185 unique names were identified. The capture-recapture method estimated that the total lesbian population of Allegheny County was 7031 (95% CI 5850 to 8576). Therefore, based on the 1990 census figures, the county's adult lesbian population was estimated to be 1.87% (95% CI 1.56% to 2.28%) of the adult female population. CONCLUSIONS: An estimate of the lesbian population is fundamental for addressing lesbian's health needs and for developing appropriate research programmes. Capture-recapture methods have the potential to provide accurate and reliable estimates of this population in any location.

Hazardous waste site frequency: use of the capture-recapture method.

This investigation used a two-source capture-recapture method (CRM) for determining ascertainment and undercounts of non-national priority listed hazardous waste sites in the states of Arizona, Maine and Pennsylvania. These findings suggest that ascertainment of hazardous waste sites vary greatly, with some more accurate (i.e., Maine) than others (i.e., Pennsylvania). These data suggest that nontraditional manufacturing states (e.g., Maine) have a higher ascertainment rate than traditional manufacturing states (e.g., Pennsylvania). These results indicate that resources for locating hazardous waste sites should be more heavily allotted to industrialized areas. We suggest that the CRM is a convenient, low cost and effective method for determining (1) the accuracy of previous estimates, and (2) the number of sites in a locale with 95% confidence intervals along with an estimate of the undercount. Findings suggest that estimates of hazardous waste sites should use the CRM to determine and improve accuracy.

Progression to insulin-requiring diabetes in seronegative prediabetic subjects: the role of two HLA-DQ high-risk haplotypes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Most Caucasians with Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus develop an autoimmune form of diabetes known as Type IA diabetes, based on the presence of humoral responses to islet autoantigens. Alleles at the HLA locus account for the strongest susceptibility to this form of diabetes, which requires insulin therapy. Because a number of patients who develop insulin-requiring diabetes are islet autoantibody negative, the HLA class II haplotypes, DQA1*0501-DQB1*0201 and DQA1*0301-DQB1*0302, were evaluated to assess whether they are an independent risk factor for progression to insulin requirement in first-degree relatives of Type I diabetic patients. METHODS: Both HLA-DQ genotyping and islet cell autoantibody assessment (insulin, GAD65, IA-2 autoantibodies and cytoplasmic islet cell antibodies) were evaluated prospectively in 74 relatives of Type I diabetic patients who developed diabetes treated with insulin (prediabetics) and in 426 control subjects who did not develop insulin-requiring diabetes. Based on the presence of DQA1*0501-DQB1*0201 and/or DQA1*0301-DQB1*0302, the number of HLA-DQ high-risk haplotypes was assigned as 0, 1 or 2. RESULTS: A higher prevalence of 2 HLA-DQ high-risk haplotypes was present in seronegative prediabetic subjects as compared to non-diabetic autoantibody negative first-degree relatives (33.3 % vs 10.1 % respectively; p < 0.05). Moreover, in seronegative relatives who developed insulin-requiring diabetes, the presence of 2 HLA-DQ high-risk haplotypes conferred an increased cumulative risk of developing insulin requirement of 27 % at 12.5 years of follow-up, compared to a risk of 6 % for non-diabetic relatives who were antibody-negative and had 0 or 1 HLA-DQ high-risk haplotypes (Log rank p = 0.01). CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: These data provide evidence for a phenotype, which is associated with the absence of conventional islet autoantibodies at initial screening, while usually remaining seronegative, and the presence of 2 HLA-DQ high-risk haplotypes with progression to clinical Type I diabetes after a prolonged follow-up. Given the fact that in humans the highest risk-conferring locus associated and linked to the disease is the HLA cluster, and that HLA-DQ molecules play a key role in the development of autoimmune diabetes, our observations imply that as yet unidentified immunologic abnormalities could well exist in seronegative relatives at risk of developing clinical diabetes and carrying 2 HLA-DQ high-risk haplotypes.

Does the perception of downloading speed influence the evaluation of web-based lectures?

Medical schools put little emphasis upon education on public health, even though public health has played an important role in this century. One way to harness its benefit in order to improve global health in the 21st century is to globally share lectures on public health through the Internet. We have developed the Supercourse comprising of web-based learning modules on epidemiology in a standardized format with the size of each web page less than 10 kilobytes. A cross-sectional observational study was conducted to investigate the association of the perception of the access speed to Web-based lectures by teachers with their perception of lecture quality. There were 223 teachers who rated the lectures: 72% were from North America or Western Europe, 40% had taught epidemiology, and 14% reported that the speed of access was slow. Odds ratio of above-average rating among those who reported that the speed of access was fast relative to those who reported that the speed of access was slow was 4.25 (2.03-8.91; P = 0.001). The odds ratios were similar and significant after taking into account several other factors, including the variation of rating across lectures, region, and experiences in teaching epidemiology. The results indicate that the perception of the quality of Web-based lectures is related to the speed of access to a web page. The speed of access may be as important, if not more important, as the content itself. This suggests that, to share educational materials on the Web globally for teachers, one must consider not only the content, but also how people at local sites gain access to the Internet.

Mortality trends in type 1 diabetes. The Allegheny County (Pennsylvania) Registry 1965-1999.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate long-term mortality and its temporal trends as of 1 January 1999 among the 1,075 patients with type 1 diabetes (onset age <18 years, diagnosed between 1965 and 1979) who comprise the Allegheny County population-based registry. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Overall, sex- and race-specific mortality rates per person-year of follow-up were determined. Standardized mortality ratios were also calculated. Survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard model were also used. Temporal trends were examined by dividing the cohort into three groups by year of diagnosis (1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). RESULTS: Living status of 972 cases was ascertained as of January 1, 1999 (ascertainment rate 90.4%). The mean duration of diabetes was 25.2 +/- 5.8 (SD) years. Overall, 170 deaths were observed. The crude mortality rate was 627 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 532-728) and standardized mortality ratio was 519 (440-602). Life-table analyses by the Kaplan-Meier method indicated cumulative survival rates of 98.0% at 10 years, 92.1% at 20 years, and 79.6% at 30 years duration of diabetes. There was a significant improvement in the survival rate between the cohort diagnosed during 1965-1969 and that diagnosed during 1975-1979 by the log-rank test (P = 0.03). Mortality was higher in African-Americans than in Caucasians, but there were no differences seen by sex. The improvement in recent years was seen in both ethnic groups and sexes. CONCLUSIONS: An improvement in long-term survival was observed in the more recently diagnosed cohort. This improvement is consistent with the introduction of HbA1 testing, home blood glucose monitoring, and improved blood pressure therapy in the 1980s.

Capture-recapture method to estimate lower extremity amputation rates in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate rates of lower extremity amputations (LEAs) in persons with peripheral vascular disease, diabetes mellitus, trauma, neoplasm, osteomyelitis, or emphysematous gangrene. METHODS: Regional amputee registries were used to estimate the rate of lower extremity amputations with the capture-recapture (CR) technique. Data were extracted from three amputee registries in Rio de Janeiro: source 1, with 1,191 cases from 23 hospitals; source 2, with 157 cases from a limb-fitting center; and source 3, with 34 cases from a rehabilitation center. Amputee death certificates from source 1 identified 257 deaths from 1992 to 1994. Three CR models were evaluated using sources 2 and 3. In order to avoid an overestimation of the rate of LEAs, two models were applied for the data analysis: in one case, deceased patients listed in source 1 were excluded from the model, and in the other case, deceased patients were included as well. RESULTS: Excluding the 257 deaths, the estimated number of amputations in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro from 1992 to 1994 was 3,954, for a mean annual incidence rate of 13.9 per 100,000 inhabitants. Among persons with diabetes, the annual incidence rate of lower extremity amputations was substantially higher (180.6 per 100,000 persons per year), representing 13 times the risk of individuals without diabetes. The yearly rate of LEAs according to the routine surveillance system was estimated at 5.4 and 96.9 per 100,000 in the general population and in diabetics, respectively. If data from the three registries are added, 1,382 patients with LEAs were identified, with the reasons for the amputations distributed as follows: peripheral vascular disease = 804 (58.1%); diabetes mellitus = 379 (27.4%); trauma = 103 (7.4%); osteomyelitis = 44 (3.1%); gangrene = 36 (2.6%), and neoplasm = 16 (1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: These findings show a high incidence of LEAs in Brazil, when compared to countries such as Spain, that is attributable mainly to peripheral vascular disease and diabetes mellitus.

Towards an internet civil defence against bioterrorism.

Approaches towards the public-health prevention of bioterrorism are too little, and too late. New information-based approaches could yield better homeland protection. An internet civil defence is presented where millions of eyes could help to identify suspected cases of bioterrorism, with the internet used to report, confirm, and prevent outbreaks.

Mortality in patients with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in Finland, Estonia, and Lithuania: follow-up of nationwide cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To assess mortality of population-based cohorts of childhood-onset type 1 diabetic patients from the Eastern European countries of Estonia and Lithuania and compare this information with recent data from Finland. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Estonian (n = 518) and Finnish (n = 5,156) type 1 diabetic cohorts were diagnosed between 1980 and 1994, and the Lithuanian (n = 698) cohort was diagnosed between 1983 and 1994. The mortality of these cohorts was determined in 1995. Life-table analysis, Cox survival analysis with covariates, and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were used. Causes of death were analyzed. RESULTS: Survival after 10 years duration of type 1 diabetes was similar in Estonia (94.3%) and Lithuania (94.0%), but much higher in Finland (99.1%). In the Cox survival analysis with covariates, the country of origin and age at diagnosis were found to be significant predictors of mortality. The SMR for the Estonian cohort was 4.35 (95% CI 2.25-7.61), the highest for the Lithuanian cohort was 7.55 (4.89-11.15), and the lowest for the Finnish cohort was 1.62 (1.10-2.28). The most common cause of death in Estonia and Lithuania was diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), and in Finland, it was violent causes. No deaths from late complications of diabetes have been documented so far in any of the three countries. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate a high rate of short-term deaths due to DKA and inferior survival of childhood-onset type 1 diabetic patients in Estonia and Lithuania compared with Finland. In Finland, the survival of childhood-onset type 1 diabetic patients has improved and is only slightly inferior to that of the background population.

Disabilities due to injury in the military.

INTRODUCTION: Disability is a major health and economic issue in the Armed Forces associated with increased use of medical care, the loss of active duty time, and substantial compensation costs. METHODS: The role of injuries in physical disability from the early 1980s to 1994 was assessed by reviewing administrative data from the U.S. Army Physical Disability Agency, the Naval Disability Evaluation Board, and the Air Force Physical Disability Division. Information on the number of disability cases reviewed in 1994, the leading causes of disability, and the disposition of each case were examined most closely. Also, information from the Department of Defense on the cost of compensating disability cases was reviewed. RESULTS: Disability generally appears to be significant across the services, ranging from 10 to 30 events per 1000 personnel per year depending on the service. Evidence from the data reviewed indicates that 30% to 50% of disability cases may be due to injury. The leading conditions that bring about board reviews and lifetime compensation appear to be lower back and knee conditions, both commonly thought to be due to injuries. Total direct costs of compensation reached $1. 5 billion for fiscal year 1990. CONCLUSIONS: While current disability data systems are maintained for administrative and not research purposes, the information available may be valuable for injury surveillance and research and suggests that injury-related disability is a major health and economic burden for the Armed Forces.