Making Drug Approval Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty: Cumulative Evidence versus Value of Information.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the criticality and complexity of decision making for novel treatment approval and further research. Our study aims to assess potential decision-making methodologies, an evaluation vital for refining future public health crisis responses. METHODS: We compared 4 decision-making approaches to drug approval and research: the Food and Drug Administration's policy decisions, cumulative meta-analysis, a prospective value-of-information (VOI) approach (using information available at the time of decision), and a reference standard (retrospective VOI analysis using information available in hindsight). Possible decisions were to reject, accept, provide emergency use authorization, or allow access to new therapies only in research settings. We used monoclonal antibodies provided to hospitalized COVID-19 patients as a case study, examining the evidence from September 2020 to December 2021 and focusing on each method's capacity to optimize health outcomes and resource allocation. RESULTS: Our findings indicate a notable discrepancy between policy decisions and the reference standard retrospective VOI approach with expected losses up to $269 billion USD, suggesting suboptimal resource use during the wait for emergency use authorization. Relying solely on cumulative meta-analysis for decision making results in the largest expected loss, while the policy approach showed a loss up to $16 billion and the prospective VOI approach presented the least loss (up to $2 billion). CONCLUSION: Our research suggests that incorporating VOI analysis may be particularly useful for research prioritization and treatment implementation decisions during pandemics. While the prospective VOI approach was favored in this case study, further studies should validate the ideal decision-making method across various contexts. This study's findings not only enhance our understanding of decision-making strategies during a health crisis but also provide a potential framework for future pandemic responses. HIGHLIGHTS: This study reviews discrepancies between a reference standard (retrospective VOI, using hindsight information) and 3 conceivable real-time approaches to research-treatment decisions during a pandemic, suggesting suboptimal use of resources.Of all prospective decision-making approaches considered, VOI closely mirrored the reference standard, yielding the least expected value loss across our study timeline.This study illustrates the possible benefit of VOI results and the need for evidence accumulation accompanied by modeling in health technology assessment for emerging therapies.

Reducing behavior problems in children born after an unintended pregnancy: the generation R study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine differences in behavior problems between children from intended versus unintended pregnancies, and to estimate how much the difference in problem behavior would be reduced if postnatal depression was eliminated and social support was increased within 6 months after birth. METHODS: Data from the Generation R Study were used, a population-based birth cohort in Rotterdam, the Netherlands (N = 9621). Differences in child internalizing and externalizing behavior at ages 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 13 years between pregnancy intention groups were estimated using linear regression. Associations of postnatal depression and social support with internalizing and externalizing problems were also estimated using linear regression. Child behavior outcomes where compared before and after modelling a situation in which none of the mothers experienced a postnatal depression and all mother experienced high social support. RESULTS: Most pregnancies (72.9%) were planned, 14.8% were unplanned and wanted, 10.8% were unplanned with initially ambivalent feelings and 1.5% with prolonged ambivalent feelings. Children from unplanned pregnancies had more internalizing and externalizing problems at all ages as compared to children from a planned pregnancy, especially when ambivalent feelings were present. Hypothetically eliminating on postnatal depression reduced the differences in internalizing and externalizing problems by 0.02 to 0.16 standard deviation. Hypothetically increasing social support did not significantly reduce the difference in internalizing and externalizing problems. CONCLUSIONS: Children from an unplanned pregnancy have more behavior problems, in particular when mothers had prolonged ambivalent feelings. Eliminating postnatal depression may help to reduce the inequality in child behavior related to pregnancy intention.

Examining longitudinal associations between prenatal exposure to infections and child brain morphology.

BACKGROUND: Maternal infection during pregnancy has been identified as a prenatal risk factor for the later development of psychopathology in exposed offspring. Neuroimaging data collected during childhood has suggested a link between prenatal exposure to maternal infection and child brain structure and function, potentially offering a neurobiological explanation for the emergence of psychopathology. Additionally, preclinical studies utilizing repeated measures of neuroimaging data suggest that effects of prenatal maternal infection on the offspring's brain may normalize over time (i.e., catch-up growth). However, it remains unclear whether exposure to prenatal maternal infection in humans is related to long-term differential neurodevelopmental trajectories. Hence, this study aimed to investigate the association between prenatal exposure to infections on child brain development over time using repeated measures MRI data. METHODS: We leveraged data from a population-based cohort, Generation R, in which we examined prospectively assessed self-reported infections at each trimester of pregnancy (N = 2,155). We further used three neuroimaging assessments (at mean ages 8, 10 and 14) to obtain cortical and subcortical measures of the offspring's brain morphology with MRI. Hereafter, we applied linear mixed-effects models, adjusting for several confounding factors, to estimate the association of prenatal maternal infection with child brain development over time. RESULTS: We found that prenatal exposure to infection in the third trimester was associated with a slower decrease in volumes of the pars orbitalis, rostral anterior cingulate and superior frontal gyrus, and a faster increase in the middle temporal gyrus. In the temporal pole we observed a divergent pattern, specifically showing an increase in volume in offspring exposed to more infections compared to a decrease in volume in offspring exposed to fewer infections. We further observed associations in other frontal and temporal lobe structures after exposure to infections in any trimester, though these did not survive multiple testing correction. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to infections in the third trimester may be associated with slower age-related growth in the regions: pars orbitalis, rostral anterior cingulate and superior frontal gyrus, and faster age-related growth in the middle temporal gyrus across childhood, suggesting a potential sensitive period. Our results might be interpreted as an extension of longitudinal findings from preclinical studies, indicating that children exposed to prenatal infections could exhibit catch-up growth. However, given the lack of differences in brain volume between various infection groups at baseline, there may instead be either a longitudinal deviation or a subtle temporal deviation. Subsequent well-powered studies that extend into the period of full brain development (∼25 years) are needed to confirm whether the observed phenomenon is indeed catch-up growth, a longitudinal deviation, or a subtle temporal deviation.

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms and brain morphology: Addressing potential selection bias with inverse probability weighting.

The goal of this study was to examine what happens to established associations between attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and cortical surface and thickness regions once we apply inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) to address potential selection bias. Moreover, we illustrate how different factors that predict participation contribute to potential selection bias. Participants were 9- to 11-year-old children from the Generation R study (N = 2707). Cortical area and thickness were measured with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ADHD symptoms with the Child Behavior Checklist. We examined how associations between ADHD symptoms and brain morphology change when we weight our sample back to either follow-up (ages 9-11), baseline (cohort at birth), or eligible (population of Rotterdam at time of recruitment). Weights were derived using IPCW or raking and missing predictors of participation used to estimate weights were imputed. Weighting analyses to baseline and eligible increased beta coefficients for the middle temporal gyrus surface area, as well as fusiform gyrus cortical thickness. Alternatively, the beta coefficient for the rostral anterior cingulate decreased. Removing one group of variables used for estimating weights resulted in the weighted regression coefficient moving closer to the unweighted regression coefficient. In addition, we found considerably different beta coefficients for most surface area regions and all thickness measures when we did not impute missing covariate data. Our findings highlight the importance of using inverse probability weighting (IPW) in the neuroimaging field, especially in the context of mental health-related research. We found that including all variables related to exposure-outcome in the IPW model and combining IPW with multiple imputations can help reduce bias. We encourage future psychiatric neuroimaging studies to define their target population, collect information on eligible but not included participants and use inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) to reduce selection bias.

Potential impact of unblinding on observed treatment effects in Alzheimer's disease trials.

INTRODUCTION: Adverse effects of monoclonal antibodies against amyloid beta are common, and may affect validity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) through unblinding of participants. METHODS: We used observations from published phase 3 RCTs in Alzheimer's disease to calculate the magnitude of unblinding effects on cognition that would be required to explain observed cognitive benefits in RCTs. RESULTS: In trials of lecanemab, aducanumab, and donanemab, incidence of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities with active treatment ranged from 22% to 44%, the vast majority of which presumably led to unblinding. Effects of unblinding on the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes required to fully explain observed drug effects ranged from 1.1 point (95% confidence interval: 0.2-2.0) with aducanumab, to 3.3 points (2.1-4.4) with donanemab and 3.7 points (2.0-5.6) with lecanemab. Infusion-related reactions were common, with potential unblinding effects particularly for lecanemab. Similar patterns were observed for the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive subscale. DISCUSSION: Psychological treatment effects due to unblinding may explain a substantial share of observed treatment effects in RCTs.

From complexity to clarity: how directed acyclic graphs enhance the study design of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

While frameworks to systematically assess bias in systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMAs) and frameworks on causal inference are well established, they are less frequently integrated beyond the data analysis stages. This paper proposes the use of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in the design stage of SRMAs. We hypothesize that DAGs created and registered a priori can offer a useful approach to more effective and efficient evidence synthesis. DAGs provide a visual representation of the complex assumed relationships between variables within and beyond individual studies prior to data analysis, facilitating discussion among researchers, guiding data analysis, and may lead to more targeted inclusion criteria or set of data extraction items. We illustrate this argument through both experimental and observational case examples.

Falsification of the instrumental variable conditions in Mendelian randomization studies in the UK Biobank.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an increasingly popular approach to estimating causal effects. Although the assumptions underlying MR cannot be verified, they imply certain constraints, the instrumental inequalities, which can be used to falsify the MR conditions. However, the instrumental inequalities are rarely applied in MR. We aimed to explore whether the instrumental inequalities could detect violations of the MR conditions in case studies analyzing the effect of commonly studied exposures on coronary artery disease risk.Using 1077 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we applied the instrumental inequalities to MR models for the effects of vitamin D concentration, alcohol consumption, C-reactive protein (CRP), triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol on coronary artery disease in the UK Biobank. For their relevant exposure, we applied the instrumental inequalities to MR models proposing each SNP as an instrument individually, and to MR models proposing unweighted allele scores as an instrument. We did not identify any violations of the MR assumptions when proposing each SNP as an instrument individually. When proposing allele scores as instruments, we detected violations of the MR assumptions for 5 of 6 exposures.Within our setting, this suggests the instrumental inequalities can be useful for identifying violations of the MR conditions when proposing multiple SNPs as instruments, but may be less useful in determining which SNPs are not instruments. This work demonstrates how incorporating the instrumental inequalities into MR analyses can help researchers to identify and mitigate potential bias.

Impact of waiting time on post-transplant survival for recipients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A natural experiment randomized by blood group.

Background & Aims: When listing for liver transplantation, one can transplant as soon as possible or introduce a test-of-time to better select patients, as the tumor's biological behavior is observed. Knowing the degree of harm caused by time itself is essential to advise patients and decide on the maximum duration of the test-of-time. Therefore, we investigated the causal effect of waiting time on post-transplant survival for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods: We analyzed the UNOS-OPTN dataset and exploited a natural experiment created by blood groups. Relations between variables and assumptions were described in a causal graph. Selection bias was addressed by inverse probability weighting. Confounding was avoided using instrumental variable analysis, with an additive hazards model in the second stage. The causal effect was evaluated by estimating the difference in 5-year overall survival if all patients waited 2 months instead of 12 months. Upper bounds of the test-of-time were evaluated for probable scenarios by means of simulation. Results: The F-statistic of the first stage was 86.3. The effect of waiting 12 months vs. 2 months corresponded with a drop in overall survival rate of 5.07% (95% CI 0.277-9.69) and 8.33% (95% CI 0.47-15.60) at 5- and 10-years post-transplant, respectively. The median survival dropped by 3.41 years from 16.21 years (95% CI 15.98-16.60) for those waiting 2 months to 12.80 years (95% CI 10.72-15.90) for those waiting 12 months. Conclusions: From a patient's perspective, the choice between ablate-and-wait vs. immediate transplantation is in favor of immediate transplantation. From a policy perspective, the extra waiting time can be used to increase the utility of scarce donor livers. However, the duration of the test-of-time is bounded, and it likely should not exceed 8 months. Impact and implications: When listing patients with liver cancer for transplantation, it is unclear whether a test-of-time or immediate transplantation offer better outcomes at the population level. In this study, we found that increased liver transplant waiting times are detrimental in patients with liver cancer. Furthermore, our simulation showed that a pre-operative observational period can be useful to ensure good donor liver allocation, but that its duration should not exceed 8 months.

Plasma MicroRNA Signature of Alcohol Consumption: The Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) represent a class of noncoding RNAs that regulate gene expression and are implicated in the pathogenesis of different diseases. Alcohol consumption might affect the expression of miRNAs, which in turn could play a role in risk of diseases. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether plasma concentrations of miRNAs are altered by alcohol consumption. Given the existing evidence showing the link between alcohol and liver diseases, we further explored the extent to which these associations are mediated by miRNAs. METHODS: Profiling of plasma miRNAs was conducted using the HTG EdgeSeq miRNA Whole Transcriptome Assay in 1933 participants of the Rotterdam Study. Linear regression was implemented to explore the link between alcohol consumption (glasses/d) and miRNA concentrations, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, BMI, and smoking. Sensitivity analysis for alcohol categories (nondrinkers, light drinkers, and heavy drinkers) was performed, where light drinkers corresponded to 0-2 glasses/d in men and 0-1 glasses/d in women, and heavy drinkers to >2 glasses/d in men and >1 glass/d in women. Moreover, we utilized the alcohol-associated miRNAs to explore their potential mediatory role between alcohol consumption and liver-related traits. Finally, we retrieved putative target genes of identified miRNAs to gain an understanding of the molecular pathways concerning alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Plasma concentrations of miR-193b-3p, miR-122-5p, miR-3937, and miR-4507 were significantly associated with alcohol consumption surpassing the Bonferroni-corrected P < 8.46 × 10-5. The top significant association was observed for miR-193b-3p (ß = 0.087, P = 2.90 × 10-5). Furthermore, a potential mediatory role of miR-3937 and miR-122-5p was observed between alcohol consumption and liver traits. Pathway analysis of putative target genes revealed involvement in biological regulation and cellular processes. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that alcohol consumption is associated with plasma concentrations of 4 miRNAs. We outline a potential mediatory role of 2 alcohol-associated miRNAs (miR-3937 and miR-122-5p), laying the groundwork for further exploration of miRNAs as potential mediators between lifestyle factors and disease development.

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms and brain morphology: Examining confounding bias.

Background: Associations between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and brain morphology have been reported, although with several inconsistencies. These may partly stem from confounding bias, which could distort associations and limit generalizability. We examined how associations between brain morphology and ADHD symptoms change with adjustments for potential confounders typically overlooked in the literature (aim 1), and for the intelligence quotient (IQ) and head motion, which are generally corrected for but play ambiguous roles (aim 2). Methods: Participants were 10-year-old children from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (N = 7722) and Generation R (N = 2531) Studies. Cortical area, volume, and thickness were measured with MRI and ADHD symptoms with the Child Behavior Checklist. Surface-based cross-sectional analyses were run. Results: ADHD symptoms related to widespread cortical regions when solely adjusting for demographic factors. Additional adjustments for socioeconomic and maternal behavioral confounders (aim 1) generally attenuated associations, as cluster sizes halved and effect sizes substantially reduced. Cluster sizes further changed when including IQ and head motion (aim 2), however, we argue that adjustments might have introduced bias. Conclusions: Careful confounder selection and control can help identify more robust and specific regions of associations for ADHD symptoms, across two cohorts. We provided guidance to minimizing confounding bias in psychiatric neuroimaging. Funding: Authors are supported by an NWO-VICI grant (NWO-ZonMW: 016.VICI.170.200 to HT) for HT, LDA, SL, and the Sophia Foundation S18-20, and Erasmus University and Erasmus MC Fellowship for RLM.

Diagnostic accuracy of MRI techniques for treatment response evaluation in patients with brain metastasis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Treatment response assessment in patients with brain metastasis uses contrast enhanced T1-weighted MRI. Advanced MRI techniques have been studied, but the diagnostic accuracy is not well known. Therefore, we performed a metaanalysis to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the currently available MRI techniques for treatment response. METHODS: A systematic literature search was done. Study selection and data extraction were done by two authors independently. Meta-analysis was performed using a bivariate random effects model. An independent cohort was used for DSC perfusion external validation of diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Anatomical MRI (16 studies, 726 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 76%. DCE perfusion (4 studies, 114 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 92%. DSC perfusion (12 studies, 418 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity was 83% with a specificity of 78%. Diffusion weighted imaging (7 studies, 288 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 67% and a specificity of 79%. MRS (4 studies, 54 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 78%. Combined techniques (6 studies, 375 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 88%. External validation of DSC showed a lower sensitivity and a higher specificity for the reported cut-off values included in this metaanalysis. CONCLUSION: A combination of techniques shows the highest diagnostic accuracy differentiating tumor progression from treatment induced abnormalities. External validation of imaging results is important to better define the reliability of imaging results with the different techniques.

Prenatal exposure to trans fatty acids and head growth in fetal life and childhood: triangulating confounder-adjustment and instrumental variable approaches.

Dietary trans fatty acids (TFAs) are primarily industrially produced and remain abundant in processed food, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Although TFAs are a cause of adverse cardiometabolic outcomes, little is known about exposure to TFAs in relation to brain development. We aimed to investigate the effect of maternal TFA concentration during pregnancy on offspring head growth in utero and during childhood. In a prospective population-based study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, with 6900 mother-child dyads, maternal plasma TFA concentration was assessed using gas chromatography in mid-gestation. Offspring head circumference (HC) was measured in the second and third trimesters using ultrasonography; childhood brain morphology was assessed using magnetic resonance imaging at age 10 years. We performed regression analyses adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders and instrumental variable (IV) analyses. Our IV analysis leveraged a national policy change that led to a substantial reduction in TFA and occurred mid-recruitment. After adjusting for covariates, maternal TFA concentration during pregnancy was inversely related to fetal HC in the third trimester (mean difference per 1% wt:wt increase: - 0.33, 95% CI - 0.51, - 0.15, cm) and to fetal HC growth from the second to the third trimester (- 0.04, 95% CI - 0.06, - 0.02, cm/week). Consistent findings were obtained with IV analyses, strengthening a causal interpretation. Association between prenatal TFA exposure and HC in the second trimester or global brain volume at age 10 years was inconclusive. Our findings are of important public health relevance as TFA levels in food remain high in many countries.

Invited Commentary: Conducting and Emulating Trials to Study Effects of Social Interventions.

All else being equal, if we had 1 causal effect we wished to estimate, we would conduct a randomized trial with a protocol that mapped onto that causal question, or we would attempt to emulate that target trial with observational data. However, studying the social determinants of health often means there are not just 1 but several causal contrasts of simultaneous interest and importance, and each of these related but distinct causal questions may have varying degrees of feasibility in conducting trials. With this in mind, we discuss challenges and opportunities that arise when conducting and emulating such trials. We describe designing trials with the simultaneous goals of estimating the intention-to-treat effect, the per-protocol effect, effects of alternative protocols or joint interventions, effects within subgroups, and effects under interference, and we describe ways to make the most of all feasible randomized trials and emulated trials using observational data. Our comments are grounded in the study results of Courtin et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(8):1444-1452).

Prenatal smoking, alcohol and caffeine exposure and maternal-reported attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms in childhood: triangulation of evidence using negative control and polygenic risk score analyses.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Studies have indicated that maternal prenatal substance use may be associated with offspring attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) via intrauterine effects. We measured associations between prenatal smoking, alcohol and caffeine consumption with childhood ADHD symptoms accounting for shared familial factors. DESIGN: First, we used a negative control design comparing maternal and paternal substance use. Three models were used for negative control analyses: unadjusted (without confounders), adjusted (including confounders) and mutually adjusted (including confounders and partner's substance use). The results were meta-analysed across the cohorts. Secondly, we used polygenic risk scores (PRS) as proxies for exposures. Maternal PRS for smoking, alcohol and coffee consumption were regressed against ADHD symptoms. We triangulated the results across the two approaches to infer causality. SETTING: We used data from three longitudinal pregnancy cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in the United Kingdom, Generation R study (GenR) in the Netherlands and Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort study (MoBa) in Norway. PARTICIPANTS: Phenotype data available for children were: NALSPAC = 5455-7751; NGENR = 1537-3119; NMOBA = 28 053-42 206. Genotype data available for mothers was: NALSPAC = 7074; NMOBA = 14 583. MEASUREMENTS: A measure of offspring ADHD symptoms at age 7-8 years was derived by dichotomizing scores from questionnaires and parental self-reported prenatal substance use was measured at the second pregnancy trimester. FINDINGS: The pooled estimate for maternal prenatal substance use showed an association with total ADHD symptoms [odds ratio (OR)SMOKING = 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.23; ORALCOHOL = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.08-1.49; ORCAFFEINE = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.00-1.11], while not for fathers (ORSMOKING = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.95-1.13; ORALCOHOL = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.47-1.48; ORCAFFEINE = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.97-1.07). However, maternal associations did not persist in sensitivity analyses (substance use before pregnancy, adjustment for maternal ADHD symptoms in MoBa). The PRS analyses were inconclusive for an association in ALSPAC or MoBa. CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be no causal intrauterine effect of maternal prenatal substance use on offspring attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms.

Physical Activity Spaces Not Effective against Socioeconomic Inequalities in Myopia Incidence: The Generation R Study.

SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings show that non-Dutch background, lower maternal education, and lower net household income level may be new risk factors for myopia development in the Netherlands. Newly introduced physical activity spaces may not be effective enough in increasing outdoor exposure in children to reduce eye growth. PURPOSE: The aims of this study were to evaluate socioeconomic inequalities in myopia incidence, eye growth, outdoor exposure, and computer use and to investigate if newly introduced physical activity spaces can reduce eye growth in school-aged children. METHODS: Participants (N = 2643) from the Dutch population-based birth cohort Generation R were examined at ages 6 and 9 years. Socioeconomic inequalities in myopia incidence, eye growth, and lifestyle were determined using regression analyses. Information on physical activity spaces located in Rotterdam was obtained. Differences in eye growth between those who became exposed to new physical activity spaces (n = 230) and those nonexposed (n = 1866) were evaluated with individual-level fixed-effects models. RESULTS: Myopia prevalence was 2.2% at age 6 years and 12.2% at age 9 years. Outdoor exposure was 11.4 h/wk at age 6 years and 7.4 h/wk at age 9 years. Computer use was 2.1 h/wk at age 6 years and 5.2 h/wk at age 9 years. Myopia incidence was higher in children with non-Dutch background, and families with lower household income and lower maternal education (odds ratio [OR], 1.081 [95% confidence interval, 1.052 to 1.112]; OR, 1.035 [95% confidence interval, 1.008 to 1.063]; OR, 1.028 [95% confidence interval, 1.001 to 1.055], respectively). Children living <600 m of a physical activity space did not have increased outdoor exposure, except those from families with lower maternal education (ß = 1.33 h/wk; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 2.51 h/wk). Newly introduced physical activity spaces were not associated with reduction of eye growth. CONCLUSIONS: Children from socioeconomically disadvantaged families became more often myopic than those from socioeconomically advantaged families. We did not find evidence that physical activity spaces protect against myopia for the population at large, but subgroups may benefit.

Analysis of early and late maternal complications associated with delivery using propensity score.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze early and late maternal complications associated with the mode of delivery in a birth cohort in Brazil, using the propensity score technique for analysis. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study, using data from the Pelotas Birth Cohort, RS, 2004. A total of 4,189 women were included and a descriptive analysis of the data and subsequent calculation of the propensity and pairing score of vaginal delivery women and cesarean delivery women with similar scores (1,366 pairs). We then assessed the difference in outcome risk between the groups. RESULTS: Women in the cesarean group had 2.9 percentage points (pp) more risk of postpartum infection, 1.13 p.p. more risk of urinary infection, 1.10 p.p. more risk of anesthetic complications and 1.24 p.p. higher risk of headache compared to vaginal delivery, but less risk of anemia (-2.43 pp) and hemorrhoids (-1.24 p.p.). The use of propensity scores is extremely useful for reducing bias and increasing accuracy in observational studies when experimental studies cannot be performed. CONCLUSION: Cesarean sections have been associated with a higher prevalence of postpartum and urinary tract infections, anesthetic complications and headache and lower prevalence of anemia and hemorrhoids, so they should be performed with clear indications and when their benefits outweigh potential risks.