The Burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia has not been comprehensively assessed over the last two decades. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality and Disability-adjusted Life Years Lost (DALY) rates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus / Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years. METHODS: The GBD 2016 used a wide range of data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), surveys, reports of the Federal Ministry of Health and the United Nations (UN) and published scientific articles. The modified United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Spectrum model was used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates for HIV/AIDS. RESULTS: In 2016, an estimated 36,990 new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 8775-80262), 670,906 prevalent HIV cases (95% UI: 568,268-798,970) and 19,999 HIV deaths (95% UI: 16426-24412) occurred in Ethiopia. The HIV/AIDS incidence rate peaked in 1995 and declined by 6.3% annually for both sexes with a total reduction of 77% between 1990 and 2016. The annualized HIV/AIDS mortality rate reduction during 1990 to 2016 for both sexes was 0.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has achieved the 50% reduction of the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS based on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target. However, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate has been comparatively slow. The country should strengthen the HIV/AIDS detection and treatment programs at community level to achieve its targets during the Sustainable Development Program (SDGs)-era.

Tuberculosis Burden in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of Tuberculosis (TB) has not been comprehensively evaluated over the last 25 years in Ethiopia. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of tuberculosis (TB) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years. METHODS: The GBD 2016 is a mathematical modeling using different data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), prevalence surveys and annual case notifications. Age and sex specific causes of death for TB were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modeling (CODEm). We used the available data such as annual notifications and prevalence surveys as an input to estimate incidence and prevalence rates respectively using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. RESULTS: In 2016, we estimated 219,186 (95%UI: 182,977-265,292) new, 151,602 (95% UI: 126,054-180,976) prevalent TB cases and 48,910(95% UI: 40,310-58,195) TB deaths. The age-standardized TB incidence rate decreased from 201.6/100,000 to 88.5/100,000 (with a total decline of 56%) between 1990 to 2016. Similarly, the age-standardized TB mortality rate declined from 393.8/100,000 to 100/100,000 between 1990 and 2016(with a total decline of 75%). CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has achieved the 50% reduction of most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) targets related to TB. However, the decline of TB incidence and prevalence rates has been comparatively slow. The country should strengthen the TB case detection and treatment programs at community level to achieve its targets during the Sustainable Development Program (SDGs)-era.

Neonatal mortality and causes of death in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kersa HDSS), Ethiopia, 2008-2013.

BACKGROUND: In the world, Neonatal mortality accounts for 40 % of death of children under the age of 5 years. Majority of neonatal deaths occur in developing countries outside of formal health system, among which death in the first hour of first day of their life constitute the huge bulk. This analysis is intended to estimate neonatal mortality rates and identify the leading causes of death based on the surveillance data over 6 years period in Kersa health and demographic surveillance system (Kersa HDSS) site, Eastern Ethiopia. METHODS: Kersa HDSS is an open dynamic cohort of population established in 2007. The surveillance started after conducting a baseline census followed by population update and events registration on house-to-house visits every 6 months. Data were collected using verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaire from close relatives (usually mothers in this case) and causes of deaths were assigned by 2 to 3 physicians. This analysis was done based on 301 neonatal deaths and 10,934 live births occurred during 2008 to 2013. RESULTS: The overall neonatal death rate during the study period was 27.5 per 1000 live births. Nearly all neonatal deaths (94 %) occurred at home. More than four-fifth (82.4 %) of the deaths was occurred in the first week of life. More than 80 % of the deaths were due to perinatal causes. Bacterial sepsis of the newborn accounted for 31.2 % followed by birth asphyxia and perinatal respiratory disorder (28.2 %), and prematurity (17.3 %). Higher number of death was observed in Tolla and Bereka sub-districts located at the southern parts of the study site which are away from the main road network. CONCLUSION: The overall neonatal mortality over 6 years is the same to the national average (27 per 1000 live births). The leading causes of neonatal death were bacterial sepsis of newborn and birth asphyxia. Community-based skilled health care delivery during birth should be emphasized.