Systems Thinking in an era of climate change: Does cognitive neuroscience hold the key to improving environmental decision making? A perspective on Climate-Smart Agriculture.

Systems Thinking (ST) can be defined as a mental construct that recognises patterns and connections in a particular complex system to make the "best decision" possible. In the field of sustainable agriculture and climate change, higher degrees of ST are assumed to be associated with more successful adaptation strategies under changing conditions, and "better" environmental decision making in a number of environmental and cultural settings. Future climate change scenarios highlight the negative effects on agricultural productivity worldwide, particularly in low-income countries (LICs) situated in the Global South. Alongside this, current measures of ST are limited by their reliance on recall, and are prone to possible measurement errors. Using Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), as an example case study, in this article we explore: (i) ST from a social science perspective; (ii) cognitive neuroscience tools that could be used to explore ST abilities in the context of LICs; (iii) an exploration of the possible correlates of systems thinking: observational learning, prospective thinking/memory and the theory of planned behaviour and (iv) a proposed theory of change highlighting the integration of social science frameworks and a cognitive neuroscience perspective. We find, recent advancements in the field of cognitive neuroscience such as Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) provide exciting potential to explore previously hidden forms of cognition, especially in a low-income country/field setting; improving our understanding of environmental decision-making and the ability to more accurately test more complex hypotheses where access to laboratory studies is severely limited. We highlight that ST may correlate with other key aspects involved in environmental decision-making and posit motivating farmers via specific brain networks would: (a) enhance understanding of CSA practices (e.g., via the frontoparietal network extending from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) to the parietal cortex (PC) a control hub involved in ST and observational learning) such as tailoring training towards developing improved ST abilities among farmers and involving observational learning more explicitly and (b) motivate farmers to use such practices [e.g., via the network between the DLPFC and nucleus accumbens (NAc)] which mediates reward processing and motivation by focussing on a reward/emotion to engage farmers. Finally, our proposed interdisciplinary theory of change can be used as a starting point to encourage discussion and guide future research in this space.

Examining Heterogeneity of Food Fortification and Biofortification Business Models: Emerging Evidence for a Typology.

Efforts to address Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) in lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been gaining pace in recent years. Commodities such as staple foods (e.g., cereals, roots, and tubers) and condiments (e.g., salt) have been targeted as 'vehicles' for fortification and biofortification through numerous projects and initiatives. To date, there have been mixed experiences with delivery and coverage with very little documented on the range of business models applied in different geographies, business conditions and polities and this makes classification and measurement of success and failure difficult. This research aims to address this gap in knowledge through proposing a typology that clarifies similarities (internal heterogeneity) and differences (external heterogeneity) between models and that can allow all types to be defined by the combination of attributes. Building on a comprehensive literature review; NVivo was used to code initiatives from 34 key references (955 cases in total) which have been grouped into 17 categories. Using non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) we find evidence of four business model groupings that typify fortification initiatives: (1) Large-scale private, unregulated, (2) Mixed-Scale, private, unregulated (3) Large-scale, public-private, regulated; and (4) Large-scale, private, regulated. We characterise these four groups with country examples and suggest that this typology can help the discourse around viability of food fortification initiatives.

Unpacking the 'Business Model' for Fortification Initiatives in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Stakeholder Identified Drivers of Success and Constraints to Progress.

Background: Initiatives to tackle micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) have increased steadily in recent years. Commodities such as staple foods (e.g., cereals) and condiments (e.g., salt) have been targeted as 'vehicles' for industrial fortification through numerous projects and initiatives. However, mixed experiences with delivery, coverage and sustainability have been found. Methods: Using an online survey of 71 key stakeholders (from 35 countries) consisting of the public/private sector, academia and civil society, this study sought to unpack the 'business model' for fortification initiatives to identify the key drivers of success and constraints faced by stakeholders in LMICs. Bivariate analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with the coverage of the target market and the perceived success and sustainability of fortification initiatives. Results: We identified four key factors contributing to the success of fortification initiatives. The first involves the size of the firm. Large firms had a significantly higher (p < 0.05) self-sustaining index (perceived level of sustainability of the fortification initiative) than smaller sized firms. In addition, a higher perceived success score (p < 0.05) was associated with non-targeted initiatives compared to those specifically targeted at a certain cohort of the population, further illustrating the benefits of producing at scale. Secondly, a significant relationship was found between whether standards were enacted and the coverage of the target market by the project/firm (p < 0.05).). The third key factor relates to the ability to source adequate testing for the fortified produce in-house. A positive correlation was found for post-mix in-factory testing and the self-sustaining index (p < 0.05). Finally, delays to importation and high charges were cited as key constraints to the use of premix. Conclusions: We argue therefore that a successful 'business model' for industrial fortification initiatives invariably consist of: (i) the involvement of larger sized firms that have the advantage of benefiting from economies of scale; (ii) the availability and application of agreed standards by the producer; (iii) high quality assurance/compliance monitoring (including post-mix testing where relevant), and; (iv) the ability to procure premix in a timely/cost-effective manner. These criteria are likely to be important factors that contribute to the success of fortification initiatives in LMICs.

Which Choice of Delivery Model(s) Works Best to Deliver Fortified Foods?

Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) occur as a result of insufficient intake of minerals and vitamins that are critical for body growth, physical/mental development, and activity. These deficiencies are particularly prevalent in lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs), falling disproportionately on the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the society. Dietary diversity is considered the most effective method in reducing this deficiency but is often a major constraint as most foods rich in micronutrients are also expensive and thereby inaccessible to poorer members of society. In recent years, affordable commodities such as staple foods (e.g., cereals, roots, and tubers) and condiments (e.g., salt and oil) have been targeted as "vehicles" for fortification and biofortification. Despite efforts by many countries to support such initiatives, there have been mixed experiences with delivery and coverage. An important but little understood driver of success and failure for food fortification has been the range of business models and approaches adopted to promote uptake. This review examines the different models used in the delivery of fortified food including complementary foods and biofortified crops. Using a keyword search and pearl growing techniques, the review located 11,897 texts of which 106 were considered relevant. Evidence was found of a range of business forms and models that attempt to optimise uptake, use, and impact of food fortification which are specific to the 'food vehicle' and environment. We characterise the current business models and business parameters that drive successful food fortification and we propose an initial structure for understanding different fortification business cases that will offer assistance to future designers and implementors of food fortification programmes.