Adolescent Predictors of Firearm Suicide Over Four Decades of Life in U.S. Men.

INTRODUCTION: There are meager individual-level data on long-term predictors of firearm suicide. METHODS: This was an analysis of males (N=189,558) in the Project Talent cohort, a national probability sample of high school schools in 1960 when students completed a baseline Project Talent self-report inventory. Mortality follow-up was contingent on survival until 1979, the onset of the National Death Index when the cohort had a mean age of 35.7 years. Mortality follow-up continued until death or age 75 years, reached by all surviving members by 2018. Analyses were conducted in 2022, with the main outcome being firearm suicide deaths (n=479). Factor analyses of Project Talent items yielded three key factors: (1) interests in firearm-related professions (i.e., military service, police force), (2) interests in hunting or fishing and knowledge of long guns, and (3) stereotypic masculinity. RESULTS: Survival analyses showed that long-term risk for firearm suicide was associated with 1-SD increases in firearm-related vocational interests in adolescence (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=1.23 [1.09, 1.40]) and masculinity (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=1.15 [1.04, 1.28]). Decreased long-term firearm suicide risk was associated with increased hunting interests and knowledge of long guns in adolescence (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=0.86 [0.77, 0.96]) and competitive sports participation, an exploratory variable (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=0.89 [0.80, 0.99]). CONCLUSIONS: Prevention efforts are needed to lower long-term firearm suicide risk among adolescent males with high stereotypic masculinity and those interested in military or police service. Potential protective effects of competitive sports participation and socialization to long guns through hunting require further study.

High school quality is associated with cognition 58 years later.

We leveraged a unique school-based longitudinal cohort-the Project Talent Aging Study-to examine whether attending higher quality schools is associated with cognitive performance among older adults in the United States (mean age = 74.8). Participants (n = 2,289) completed telephone neurocognitive testing. Six indicators of high school quality, reported by principals at the time of schooling, were predictors of respondents' cognitive function 58 years later. To account for school-clustering, multilevel linear and logistic models were applied. We found that attending schools with a higher number of teachers with graduate training was the clearest predictor of later-life cognition, and school quality mattered especially for language abilities. Importantly, Black respondents (n = 239; 10.5 percentage) were disproportionately exposed to low quality high schools. Therefore, increased investment in schools, especially those that serve Black children, could be a powerful strategy to improve later life cognitive health among older adults in the United States.

Intergenerational social mobility and suicide risk by firearm and other means in US males.

Firearms are the leading method of suicide in US men, and socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with suicide risk. In this 40-year mortality follow-up of a national cohort of US men, we examined if improved SES relative to one's family of origin, upward intergenerational social mobility (ISM), is associated with lowered risk for firearm suicide and suicide by other means in US men. Family of origin SES was assessed as part of Project Talent, a broad survey of US high school students in 1960. 42,766 men in the cohort completed follow-up surveys at age 29, assessing attained SES via education, occupation, and income. ISM was measured by change between harmonized SES composites. Mortality follow-up was conducted through age 70. Adjusting for baseline SES and race/ethnicity, a 1 standard deviation increase in SES was associated with a 31% reduction in firearm suicide risk later in the life course (HR [95% CI] = 0·69 [0·54, 0·88], P = 0·003), and a smaller, non-significant reduction in suicide by other means (HR [95% CI] = 0·80 [0·60, 1·07], P = 0·136). Traits associated with both suicide and SES attainment (cognitive ability, calm, impulsivity) only modestly attenuated this association. Upward ISM was more strongly associated with reduced firearm suicide risk in males with parents of low SES. The association between upward ISM and reduced firearm suicide mortality risk prevailed over ensuing decades. Policies improving social mobility in US males, particularly those of lower SES, may function as de-facto firearm suicide prevention strategies.

The relationship between health and political ideology begins in childhood.

We investigate whether childhood health status influences adult political ideology and whether health at subsequent life-stages, adolescent personality traits, or adolescent academic aptitude mediate this relationship. Using a national longitudinal cohort sample, we found that better health among children under age 10 was positively related to conservative political ideology among adults over age 64. Children with excellent health compared to very poor health were 16 percentage points more likely to report having a conservative political ideology in adulthood. Children with excellent health compared to very poor health were 13 percentage points less likely to report having a liberal political ideology in adulthood. Adults who had excellent health as children were 30 percentage points more likely to report conservative ideology than liberal ideology. However, the difference in ideological position for adults who had very poor childhood health was negligible. That is, the health and ideology relationship is being driven by those who were healthier early in life, after controlling for family income and material wealth. No evidence was found for mediation by adolescent heath, adult heath, adolescent personality traits, or adolescent academic aptitude. The magnitude of the coefficient for childhood health was substantively and statistically equivalent across race and sex. We discuss the possibility that, instead of being mediated, childhood health may actually be a mediator bridging social, environmental, and policy contexts with political ideology. We also discuss the potential of social policy to influence health, which influences ideology (and voting participation), which eventually circles back to influence social policy. It is important to understand the nexus of political life and population health since disparities in voice and power can exacerbate health disparities.

Postsecondary Education and Late-life Cognitive Outcomes Among Black and White Participants in the Project Talent Aging Study: Can Early-life Cognitive Skills Account for Educational Differences in Late-life Cognition?

BACKGROUND: Higher education consistently predicts improved late-life cognition. Racial differences in educational attainment likely contribute to inequities in dementia risk. However, few studies of education and cognition have controlled for prospectively measured early-life confounders or evaluated whether the education late-life cognition association is modified by race/ethnicity. METHODS: Among 2343 Black and White Project Talent Aging Study participants who completed telephone cognitive assessments, we evaluated whether the association between years of education and cognition (verbal fluency, memory/recall, attention, and a composite cognitive measure) differed by race, and whether these differences persisted when adjusting for childhood factors, including the cognitive ability. RESULTS: In fully adjusted linear regression models, each additional year of education was associated with higher composite cognitive scores for Black [ß=0.137; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.068, 0.206] and White respondents (ß=0.056; CI=0.034, 0.078) with an interaction with race ( P =0.03). Associations between education and memory/recall among Black adults (ß=0.036; CI=-0.037, 0.109) and attention among White adults (ß=0.022; CI=-0.002, 0.046) were nonsignificant. However, there were significant race-education interactions for the composite ( P =0.03) and attention measures ( P <0.001) but not verbal fluency ( P =0.61) or memory/recall ( P =0.95). CONCLUSION: Education predicted better overall cognition for both Black and White adults, even with stringent control for prospectively measured early-life confounders.

Association Between High School Personality Phenotype and Dementia 54 Years Later in Results From a National US Sample.

Importance: Personality phenotype has been associated with subsequent dementia in studies of older adults. However, neuropathologic changes often precede cognitive symptoms by many years and may affect personality itself. Therefore, it is unclear whether supposed dementia-prone personality profiles (high neuroticism and low conscientiousness) are true risk factors or merely reflections of preexisting disease. Objectives: To examine whether personality during adolescence-a time when preclinical dementia pathology is unlikely to be present-confers risk of dementia in later life and to test whether associations could be accounted for by health factors in adolescence or differed across socioeconomic status (SES). Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study in the United States. Participants were members of Project Talent, a national sample of high school students in 1960. Individuals were identified who received a dementia-associated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) diagnosis code during any year between 2011 and 2013. The dates of our analysis were March 2018 to May 2019. Exposures: Ten personality traits were measured by the 150-item Project Talent Personality Inventory. Socioeconomic status was measured by a composite based on parental educational level, income, occupation, and property ownership. Participants were also surveyed on demographic factors and height and weight. Main Outcomes and Measures: Medicare records were collected, with dementia diagnoses in the period of 2011 to 2013 classified according to the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ICD-9-based algorithm. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated the relative risk of dementia based on the 10 personality traits, testing interactions with SES and adjusting for demographic confounders. Results: The sample of 82 232 participants was 50.1% female, with a mean (SD) age of 15.8 (1.7) years at baseline and 69.5 (1.2) years at follow-up. Lower risk of dementia was associated with higher levels of vigor (hazard ratio for 1 SD, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97; P < .001). Calm and maturity showed protective associations with later dementia that increased with SES. At 1 SD of SES, calm showed a hazard ratio of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.95; P < .001 for the interaction) and maturity showed a hazard ratio of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.85-0.96; P = .001 for the interaction). Conclusions and Relevance: This study's findings suggest that the adolescent personality traits associated with later-life dementia are similar to those observed in studies of older persons. Moreover, the reduction in dementia risk associated with a calm and mature adolescent phenotype may be greater at higher levels of SES. Personality phenotype may be a true independent risk factor for dementia by age 70 years, preceding it by almost 5 decades and interacting with adolescent socioeconomic conditions.

IGEMS: The Consortium on Interplay of Genes and Environment Across Multiple Studies - An Update.

The Interplay of Genes and Environment across Multiple Studies (IGEMS) is a consortium of 18 twin studies from 5 different countries (Sweden, Denmark, Finland, United States, and Australia) established to explore the nature of gene-environment (GE) interplay in functioning across the adult lifespan. Fifteen of the studies are longitudinal, with follow-up as long as 59 years after baseline. The combined data from over 76,000 participants aged 14-103 at intake (including over 10,000 monozygotic and over 17,000 dizygotic twin pairs) support two primary research emphases: (1) investigation of models of GE interplay of early life adversity, and social factors at micro and macro environmental levels and with diverse outcomes, including mortality, physical functioning and psychological functioning; and (2) improved understanding of risk and protective factors for dementia by incorporating unmeasured and measured genetic factors with a wide range of exposures measured in young adulthood, midlife and later life.

High school personality traits and 48-year all-cause mortality risk: results from a national sample of 26 845 baby boomers.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear if adolescent personality predicts mortality into late life, independent of adolescent socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: Over 26 000 members of Project Talent, a US population cohort of high school students, completed a survey including 10 personality scales and SES in 1960. Multi-source mortality follow-up obtained vital status data through an average 48-year period ending in 2009. Cox proportional hazard models examined the relative risk associated with personality traits, as well as confounding by both a measure of SES and by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Adjusted for sex and grade, higher levels of vigour, calm, culture, maturity and social sensitivity in high school were associated with reduced mortality risk (HRs=0.92 to. 96), while higher levels of impulsivity were associated with greater mortality risk. Further adjustment for SES and school racial/ethnic composition mildly attenuated (eg, 12%), but did not eliminate these associations. Final HRs for a 1 SD change in personality traits were similar to that for a 1 SD change in SES. CONCLUSIONS: Adaptive personality traits in high school are associated with all-cause mortality in the USA as far into the future as the seventh decade, and to a degree similar to high school socioeconomic disadvantage.

Investigating the Early Life Determinants of Type-II Diabetes Using a Project Talent-Medicare Linked Data-set.

The increasing prevalence of Type II Diabetes (T2D) presents a serious health and financial public crisis. Our study examines the hypothesis that adolescents' perceptions of economic insecurity, along with absolute and relative socioeconomic status (SES), can contribute to T2D prevalence later in life. Project Talent (PT) Survey data, collected on high school students in 1960, have been linked to Medicare records from 2012, presenting a unique opportunity to examine measures gathered in adolescence and T2D prevalence later-in-life among a large, national, and diverse sample (n=88,849). Our results provide compelling evidence that real, perceived, and relative SES in adolescence have persistent impacts on later-in-life diabetes risk, even when controlling for possible confounders such as cognitive ability, conscientiousness, and early-adulthood educational attainment.

Adolescent Cognitive Aptitudes and Later-in-Life Alzheimer Disease and Related Disorders.

Importance: Low early-life cognitive ability is a potential early marker of dementia risk in later life. Previous studies use only global measures of general intelligence and/or study this relationship in gender-specific samples. The contribution of early-life performance on specific cognitive abilities, such as language, reasoning, and visualization aptitudes, to indicating future dementia risk is unknown. Objectives: To investigate the association between adolescent cognitive ability and Medicare-recorded Alzheimer disease and related disorders (ADRD) using both general and specific measures of cognitive ability and to explore these associations separately in men and women. Design, Setting, and Participants: Population-based cohort study from the Project Talent-Medicare linked data set, a linkage of adolescent sociobehavioral data collected from high school students in 1960 to participants' 2012 to 2013 Medicare Claims and expenditures data. The association between adolescent cognitive ability and risk of ADRD in later life was assessed in a diverse sample of 43 014 men and 42 749 women aged 66 to 73 years using a series of logistic regressions stratified by sex, accounting for demographic characteristics, adolescent socioeconomic status, and regional effects. Data analysis was conducted from November 2017 to March 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Presence of Medicare-reported ADRD. Results: Overall, 1239 men (2.9%) and 1416 women (3.3%) developed ADRD. Lower mechanical reasoning was associated with increased odds of ADRD in men (odds ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29), and lower memory for words in adolescence was associated with increased odds of ADRD in women (odds ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.28). Lower performance on several other language, reasoning, visualization, and mathematic aptitudes in adolescence showed prominent, but weaker, associations with odds of ADRD. Conclusions and Relevance: This work contributes to the understanding of early-life origins of ADRD risk. The results suggest specific measures of cognitive ability may contribute to very early identification of at-risk subgroups who may benefit from prevention or intervention efforts.

The Project TALENT Twin and Sibling Study.

Project TALENT is a US national longitudinal study of about 377,000 individuals born in 1942-1946, first assessed in 1960. Students in about 1,200 schools participated in a 2-day battery covering aptitudes, abilities, interests, and individual and family characteristics (Flanagan, 1962; www.projectTALENT.org). Follow-up assessments 1, 5, and 11 years later assessed educational and occupational outcomes. The sample includes approximately 92,000 siblings from 40,000 families, including 2,500 twin pairs and 1,200 other siblings of twins. Until recently, almost no behavior genetic research has been conducted with the sample. In the original data collection information was not collected with the intent to link family members. Recently, we developed algorithms using names, addresses, birthdates, and information about family structure to link siblings and identify twins. We are testing several methods to determine zygosity, including use of yearbook photographs. In this paper, we summarize the design and measures in Project TALENT, describe the Twin and Sibling sample, and present our twin-sib-classmate model. In most twin and family designs, the 'shared environment' includes factors specific to the family combined with between-family differences associated with macro-level variables such as socioeconomic status. The school-based sampling design used in Project TALENT provides a unique opportunity to partition the shared environment into variation shared by siblings, specific to twins, and associated with school- and community-level factors. The availability of many measured characteristics on the family, schools, and neighborhoods enhances the ability to study the impact of specific factors on behavioral variation.

Establishing the validity and reliability of the Project Talent Personality Inventory.

Project Talent is a national longitudinal study that started in 1960. The original sample included over 440,000 students, which amounted to a 5% representative sample of high school students across the United States. Previous research has not yet established the validity and reliability of the personality measure used in this study, that is, the Project Talent Personality Inventory (PTPI). Given the potential interest and use of the PTPI in forthcoming research, the goals of the present paper were to establish (a) the construct and predictive validity and (b) the internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the PTPI. This information will be valuable to researchers who might be interested in using the PTPI to predict life course outcomes, such as mortality, occupational success, relationship success, and health. Study 1 found that the 10 sub-scales of the PTPI showed good internal consistency reliability, as well as good construct and predictive validity. With the use of several modern personality measures, we showed how the 10 PTPI scales can be mapped onto the Big Five personality traits, and we examined their relations with health, well-being, and life satisfaction outcomes. Study 2 found that the 10 PTPI scales showed good test-retest reliability. Together, these findings allow researchers to better understand and use the PTPI scales, as they are available in Project Talent.