Flooding in semi-unformal urban areas in North Africa: Environmental and psychosocial drivers.

Urban flooding is recognized as a nature-driven disaster shaped by inherent factors such as climate, morphology, and hydrology, affecting vulnerability and flood exposure. While these factors play a paramount role, significant psychosocial intricate drivers are acknowledged, though they are challenging for prediction and assessment. This study delves into these drivers in a specific context, aiming to draw conclusions that extend beyond. It undertakes a comprehensive approach, integrating cloud-based Radar flood detection, analysis of flood causation patterns, and geostatistical analysis of a social survey based on cross-synthesis, contingency analysis, and structural equation modeling. In particular, we characterize the case of the coastal city of Tetouan in Morocco, which is representative in its environmental and socioeconomic settings to most cities in North Africa. It unraveled the nuanced interplay of psychosocial, economic, and territorial dynamics influencing flood exposure. The findings reveal how watershed location molds unique environmental exposures, steering nuanced, emotional, and behavioral responses among residents. Gender and education differentials reveal diverse perceptions and awareness of flood risks. Psychosocial intricacies come to the forefront, portraying education, income, and awareness as crucial mediators influencing cognitive and affective responses. Elevated education, increased income, and heightened awareness correlate with heightened perception and coping strategies. Findings reveal that risk perception significantly and differently influences risk acceptance, coping, and aversion through an array of identified key factors influencing coping strategies, mediating elements in flood damage relationships, and underscoring the pivotal role of perception in shaping responses to risk. Moreover, it found that lower risk acceptance leads to higher coping and aversion, and the latter positively affects coping, indicating that acceptance reduces the motivation to avoid the risk and decreases the willingness to adopt coping strategies to reduce the exposure. The outcomes carry critical implications for comprehending individual and collective social behaviors, informing strategies, and mitigating flood risk that apply at a wider context. It accentuates the inadequacy of relying solely on structural engineering for risk management, citing spatial constraints, misinformation, and lapses in prior-risk memory as compounding exposure challenges. This recognition catalyzes action, advocating tailored awareness campaigns, educational initiatives, and capacity-building programs, spotlighting the need for heightened individual profiles to enhance social understanding, engagement, and resilience. We anticipate profound insights, fostering a richer comprehension of urban flooding complexities and informing adaptive strategies on a broader scale.

Impacts and social implications of landuse-environment conflicts in a typical Mediterranean watershed.

In coastal watersheds, services and landuse favour coastal tourism and urbanization, depriving rural upstream of infrastructure and attention. This unbalanced management leads to an intensification of socioeconomic changes that generate a structural heterogeneity of the landscape and a reduction in the livelihoods of the rural population. The incessant dissociation between the objectives of the stakeholders triggers landuse-environment-economy conflicts which threaten to mutate large-scale development programs. Here, we used multi-assessment techniques in a Mediterranean watershed from Morocco to evaluate the effects of landuse change on water, vegetation, and perception of the rural population towards environmental issues. We combined complementary vegetation indexes (NDVI and EVI) to study long-term landuse change and phenological statistical pixel-based trends. We assessed the exposure of rural households to the risk of groundwater pollution through a water analysis supplemented by the calculation of an Integrated Water Quality Index. Later, we contrasted the findings with the results of a social survey with a representative sample of 401 households from 7 villages. We found that rapid coastal linear urbanization has resulted in a 12-fold increase in construction over the past 35 years, to the detriment of natural spaces and the lack of equipment and means in rural areas upstream. We show that the worst water qualities are linked to the negative impact of anthropogenic activities on immediately accessible water points. We observe that rural households are aware of the existence and gravity of environmental issues but act confusedly because of their low education level which generates a weak capacity to understand cause and effect relationships. We anticipate the pressing need to improve the well-being and education of the population and synergistically correct management plans to target the watershed as a consolidated system. Broadly, stakeholders should restore lost territorial harmony and reallocate landuse according to a sustainable environment-socioeconomic vision.