Early death during chemotherapy in patients with small-cell lung cancer: derivation of a prognostic index for toxic death and progression.

Based on an increased frequency of early death (death within the first treatment cycle) in our two latest randomized trials of combination chemotherapy in small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), we wanted to identify patients at risk of early non-toxic death (ENTD) and early toxic death (ETD). Data were stored in a database and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictive factors for early death. During the first cycle, 118 out of 937 patients (12.6%) died. In 38 patients (4%), the cause of death was sepsis. Significant risk factors were age, performance status (PS), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and treatment with epipodophyllotoxins and platinum in the first cycle (EP). Risk factors for ENTD were age, PS and LDH. Extensive stage had a hazard ratio of 1.9 (P = 0.07). Risk factors for ETD were EP, PS and LDH, whereas age and stage were not. For EP, the hazard ratio was as high as 6.7 (P = 0.0001). We introduced a simple prognostic algorithm including performance status, LDH and age. Using a prognostic algorithm to exclude poor-risk patients from trials, we could minimize early death, improve long-term survival and increase the survival differences between different regimens. We suggest that other groups evaluate our algorithm and exclude poor prognosis patients from trials of dose intensification.

Outcome of combination chemotherapy in extensive stage small-cell lung cancer: any treatment related progress?

During the past two decades many different treatment regimens of combination chemotherapy have been applied in extensive stage small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). This study was carried out to identify whether these modifications have resulted in an improved overall survival for extensive stage during the past two decades. In total, 1111 patients with extensive stage SCLC were included in six consecutive randomised trials in our setting from 1973 until 1992. Of these, 526 patients treated in the early period (1973-1981) were compared with 585 patients treated in the late period (1981-1992) with respect to pretreatment prognostic factors, staging, treatment and outcome. No change in the distribution of prognostic factors was detected and the frequency of patients with extensive stage was equal in the two periods, and no difference in overall response rates and survival was observed (P = 0.49). Median survival in the two periods was 208 days and 215 days, respectively. No stage migration or treatment-related improved outcome was observed in extensive disease. We suggest restricting aggressive treatment to patients with favorable prognosis and long-term survival as a realistic aim.