The Canadian Society of Cardiac Surgeons perspective on the cardiac surgery workforce in Canada.

As the professional society representing cardiac surgeons in Canada, the Canadian Society of Cardiac Surgeons (CSCS) recognizes the importance of maintaining a stable cardiac surgical workforce. The current reactive approach to health human resource management in cardiac surgery is inadequate and may result in significant misalignment of cardiac surgeon supply and demand. The availability of forecasting models and high quality, consistent data on productivity, workload, utilization, and demand is a prerequisite for our profession's capacity to predict and plan for changes in health human resources. The CSCS recognizes that improved workforce management is a key component to providing optimal cardiac surgical care for Canadians in the future and has developed the recommendations in this document as a call to action to interested stakeholders and policymakers to bring substantial improvements to health human resource management in cardiac surgery.

The cardiac surgery workforce: a survey of recent graduates of Canadian training programs.

BACKGROUND: The number of applications to Canadian cardiac surgery programs has declined recently. Perception of a difficult job market for new graduates may contribute to this decline. The objective of this survey was to document the experience of recent graduates of Canadian cardiac surgery training programs. METHODS: A 45-question, web-based survey was distributed to all graduates of Canadian cardiac surgery training programs who completed their training between 2002 and 2008. RESULTS: Of the 62 estimated recent graduates, 50 completed the survey (81%). Mean age was 36 + or - 3 years and 90% were male. The mean number of years of training after medical school was 9.4 + or - 1.6 years; 78% completed a graduate degree; and 27% extended their training because of a lack of jobs. When asked about employment, 74% mostly or definitely got the job they wanted, although 34% considered themselves underemployed. Most respondents (98%) considered finding employment for a new graduate in cardiac surgery today difficult or extremely difficult, and 64% believed that there is currently an excess of cardiac surgeons in Canada. Only 54% of participants would strongly recommend cardiac surgery to potential trainees. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of recent graduates from Canadian cardiac surgery training programs were successful in finding secure employment. A substantial proportion, however, extended their training because of a lack of jobs and reported feeling underemployed. Survey respondents agreed that a new graduate might have difficulty finding a job in cardiac surgery today. These concerns may contribute to the challenges of recruiting to the specialty.

Modeling the cardiac surgery workforce in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Limited employment opportunities for recently trained cardiac surgeons are deterring medical students from entering cardiac surgery residency programs. Given the lengthy training period and the aging of both the general population and currently practicing cardiac surgeons, this reduced enrollment raises concerns about the adequacy of the future cardiac surgery workforce. A workforce model was developed to explore the future need for cardiac surgeons in Canada. METHODS: A novel system dynamics model was developed to simulate the supply and demand for cardiac surgery in Canada between 2008 and 2030 to identify whether an excess or shortage of surgeons would exist. Several different scenarios were examined, including varying surgeon productivity, revascularization rates, and residency enrollment rates. RESULTS: The simulation results of various scenarios are presented. In the base case, a surgeon shortage is expected to develop by 2025, although this depends on surgeons' response to demand-supply gap changes. An alternative scenario in which residency enrollment directly relates to the presence of unemployed surgeons also projects substantial shortages after 2021. The model results indicate that if residency enrollment rates remain at the 2009 level an alarming shortage may develop soon, possibly reaching almost 50% of the Canadian cardiac surgical workforce. CONCLUSIONS: These workforce model results project an eventual cardiac surgeon shortage in Canada. This study highlights the possibility of a crisis in cardiac surgery and emphasizes the urgency with which enrollment into cardiac surgery training programs and the employability of recently trained cardiac surgery graduates need to be addressed.