Sex and ethnicity modified high 1-year mortality in patients in Singapore with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated sex and ethnic differences in the incidence, clinical characteristics and 1-year mortality of patients with newly diagnosed AF in a multi-ethnic population. METHOD: This retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with AF from 2008 to 2015 was based on medical claims, casemix and subvention data submitted to the Ministry of Health. Patients with AF were matched with controls without AF for age (3-year bands), sex and ethnicity, and categorised as middle-aged (45-64 years) or elderly (≥65 years) among major ethnic groups in Singapore (Chinese, Malay and Indian). RESULTS: Among 40,602 adults with AF (elderly 74%), Malays had the highest age-standardised incidence rate of AF, followed by Chinese and Indians; and the rate was higher in men. Despite having the worst cardiovascular risk profile, Indians had the lowest prevalence and incidence of AF. The 1-year mortality rate after newly diagnosed AF was 22-26 deaths per 100 people. Newly diagnosed AF was independently associated with increased 1-year all-cause mortality among middle-aged (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 9.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.36-11.20) and elderly adults (AOR 3.60, 95% CI 3.40-3.80) compared with those without AF. Sex differences in mortality among patients with AF were limited to elderly adults (men: AOR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11-1.24), while Indians were associated with a 30% increased odds of mortality compared with Chinese regardless of age (middle-aged: AOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09-1.548 elderly: AOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.22-1.45). CONCLUSION: Variations in incidence, clinical profile and 1-year mortality of patients with AF in a nationwide cohort were influenced by sex and ethnicity. Newly diagnosed AF portends a worse prognosis and is a marker of high mortality within the first year.

One-Bed-One-Team-Does an Integrated General Hospital Inpatient Model Improve Care Outcomes and Productivity: An Observational Study.

Introduction: With the increasing complexity of healthcare problems worldwide, the demand for better-coordinated care delivery is on the rise. However, current hospital-based practices remain largely disease-centric and specialist-driven, resulting in fragmented care. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and feasibility of an integrated general hospital (IGH) inpatient care model. Methods: Retrospective analysis of medical records between June 2018 and August 2019 compared patients admitted under the IGH model and patients receiving usual care in public hospitals. The IGH model managed patients from one location with a multidisciplinary team, performing needs-based care transition utilizing acuity tagging to match the intensity of care to illness acuity. Results: 5,000 episodes of IGH care entered analysis. In the absence of care transition in intervention and control, IGH average length of stay (ALOS) was 0.7 days shorter than control. In the group with care transition in intervention but not in control, IGH acute ALOS was 2 days shorter, whereas subacute ALOS was 4.8 days longer. In the presence of care transition in intervention and control, IGH acute ALOS was 6.4 and 10.2 days shorter and subacute ALOS was 15.8 and 26.9 days shorter compared with patients under usual care at acute hospitals with and without co-located community hospitals, respectively. The 30- and 60-days readmission rates of IGH patients were marginally higher than usual care, though not clinically significant. Discussions: The IGH care model maybe associated with shorter ALOS of inpatients and optimize resource allocation and service utilization. Patients with dynamic acuity transition benefited from a seamless care transition process.

Sociodemographic and clinical factors for non-hospital deaths among cancer patients: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Factors associated with place of death inform policies with respect to allocating end-of-life care resources and tailoring supportive measures. OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with non-hospital deaths among cancer patients. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of cancer decedents, examining factors associated with non-hospital deaths using multinomial logistic regression with hospital deaths as the reference category. SETTING/SUBJECTS: Cancer patients (n = 15254) in Singapore who died during the study period from January 1, 2012 till December 31, 2105 at home, acute hospital, long-term care (LTC) or hospice were included. RESULTS: Increasing age (categories ≥65 years: RRR 1.25-2.61), female (RRR 1.40; 95% CI 1.28-1.52), Malays (RRR 1.67; 95% CI 1.47-1.89), Brain malignancy (RRR 1.92; 95% CI 1.15-3.23), metastatic disease (RRR 1.33-2.01) and home palliative care (RRR 2.11; 95% CI 1.95-2.29) were associated with higher risk of home deaths. Patients with low socioeconomic status were more likely to have hospice or LTC deaths: those living in smaller housing types had higher risk of dying in hospice (1-4 rooms apartment: RRR 1.13-3.17) or LTC (1-5 rooms apartment: RRR 1.36-4.11); and those with Medifund usage had higher risk of dying in LTC (RRR 1.74; 95% CI 1.36-2.21). Patients with haematological malignancies had increased risk of dying in hospital (categories of haematological subtypes: RRR 0.06-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: We found key sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with non-hospital deaths in cancer patients. More can be done to enable patients to die in the community and with dignity rather than in a hospital.

Impact of Air Pollution and Trans-Boundary Haze on Nation-Wide Emergency Department Visits and Hospital Admissions in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Air pollution is associated with adverse health outcomes. However, its impact on emergency health services is less well understood. We investigated the impact of air pollution on nation-wide emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions to public hospitals in Singapore. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Anonymised administrative and clinical data of all ED visits to public hospitals in Singapore from January 2010 to December 2015 were retrieved and analysed. Primary and secondary outcomes were defined as ED visits and hospital admissions, respectively. Conditional Poisson regression was used to model the effect of Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) on each outcome. Both outcomes were stratified according to subgroups defined a priori based on age, diagnosis, gender, patient acuity and time of day. RESULTS: There were 5,791,945 ED visits, of which 1,552,187 resulted in hospital admissions. No significant association between PSI and total ED visits (Relative risk [RR], 1.002; 99.2% confidence interval [CI], 0.995-1.008; P = 0.509) or hospital admissions (RR, 1.005; 99.2% CI, 0.996-1.014; P = 0.112) was found. However, for every 30-unit increase in PSI, significant increases in ED visits (RR, 1.023; 99.2% CI, 1.011-1.036; P = 1.24 × 10-6 ) and hospital admissions (RR, 1.027; 99.2% CI, 1.010-1.043; P = 2.02 × 10-5 ) for respiratory conditions were found. CONCLUSION: Increased PSI was not associated with increase in total ED visits and hospital admissions, but was associated with increased ED visits and hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in Singapore.

Risk Prediction Scores for Mortality, Cerebrovascular, and Heart Disease Among Chinese People With Type 2 Diabetes.

CONTEXT: Risk scores for cardiovascular and mortality outcomes have not been commonly applied in Chinese populations. OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a set of parsimonious risk scores [University of Hong Kong-Singapore (HKU-SG)] to predict the risk of mortality, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease among Chinese people with type 2 diabetes and compare HKU-SG risk scores to other existing ones. DESIGN: Retrospective population-based cohorts drawn from Hong Kong Hospital Authority health records from 2006 to 2014 for development and Singapore Ministry of Health records from 2008 to 2016 for validation. Separate five-year risk scores were derived using Cox proportional hazards models for each outcome. SETTING: Study participants were adults with type 2 diabetes aged 20 years or over, consisting of 678,750 participants from Hong Kong and 386,425 participants from Singapore. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Performance was evaluated by discrimination (Harrell C-index), and calibration plots comparing predicted against observed risks. RESULTS: All models had fair external discrimination. Among the risk scores for the diabetes population, ethnic-specific risk scores (HKU-SG and Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation) performed better than UK Prospective Diabetes Study and Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes models. External validation of the HKU-SG risk scores for mortality, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease had corresponding C-indices of 0.778, 0.695, and 0.644. The HKU-SG models appeared well calibrated on visual plots, with predicted risks closely matching observed risks. CONCLUSIONS: The HKU-SG risk scores were developed and externally validated in two large Chinese population-based cohorts. The parsimonious use of clinical predictors compared with previous risk scores could allow wider implementation of risk estimation in diverse Chinese settings.

Not All Falls Are Equal: Risk Factors for Unplanned Readmission in Older Patients After Moderate and Severe Injury-A National Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Readmission after acute care is a significant contributor to health care costs, and has been proposed as a quality indicator. Our earlier studies showed that patients aged ≥55 years who are injured by falls from heights of ≤0.5 m were at increased risk for long-term mortality, compared to patients by high-velocity blunt trauma (higher fall heights, road injuries, and other blunt trauma). We hypothesized that these patients are also at higher risk of readmission, compared to patients injured by high-velocity mechanisms. DESIGN AND MEASURES: Competing risks regression (all-cause unplanned readmission or death) was performed. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data for 5671 patients from the Singapore National Trauma Registry data who were injured from 2011-2013 and aged 55 and over were matched to Ministry of Health admissions data. The registry uses standardized conversion metrics to convert patient histories to fall heights. RESULTS: Patients injured after a low fall were more likely to be readmitted to a hospital, compared to those sustaining injuries by high-velocity blunt trauma. On competing risks analysis, low fall [subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 1.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-1.93, P < .01], Charlson Comorbidity Score (CCS≥3 relative to CCS = 0, SHR 1.46, 95% CI 1.04-2.04, P = .03), and Modified Frailty Index (MFI≥3 relative to MFI = 0, SHR 1.98, 95% CI 1.44-2.72, P < .001) were associated with higher risk of 30-day readmission. Rehabilitation was associated with reduced 30-day (SHR 0.64, 95% CI 0.48-0.86, P < .001) and 1-year (SHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.99, P = .04) readmission. CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS: Our study sheds light on the interpretation of trauma data in aging populations. The detailed fall height information in our registry makes it uniquely placed to facilitate understanding of the paradoxical finding that injuries sustained by low-energy falls are higher risk than those sustained by higher-velocity mechanisms. Low-fall patients should be prioritized for rehabilitation and postdischarge support. The proportion of low-fall patients in a trauma registry should be included in the factors considered for benchmarking.

Cancer patients as frequent attenders in emergency departments: A national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients contribute significantly to emergency department (ED) utilization. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with patients becoming ED frequent attenders (FA) after a cancer-related hospitalization. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using national administrative, billing, and death records of Singapore residents discharged alive from Singapore public hospitals from January 2012 to December 2015, with a primary discharge diagnosis of cancer. Patients with four or more ED visits within any 12-month period after discharge from their index hospitalization were classified as FA. Time to FA distribution was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and factors associated with risk of FA were identified using multivariate Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Records for 47 235 patients were analyzed, of whom 2980 patients were FA within the study period. Age (<17 years, hazard ratio [HR] 2.92, 95% CI 2.28-3.74; 75-84 years, HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.16-1.45; and ≥85 years, HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.45-2.02, relative to age 55-64), male gender (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37), Charlson comorbidity index (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.19-1.23), and socioeconomic factors (Medifund use, HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.23-1.59; housing subsidy type, HR 2.12, 95% CI 1.77-2.54) were associated with increased risk of FA. Primary malignancies associated with FA included brain and spine (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.67-3.75), head and neck cancers (tongue, HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.27-3.31; hypopharynx, HR 2.72, 95% CI 1.56-4.74), lung (trachea and lung, HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.13-2.18; pleural, HR 3.69, 95% CI 2.12-6.34), upper gastrointestinal (stomach, HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.26-2.74; esophagus, HR 4.13, 95% CI 2.78-6.13), hepato-pancreato-biliary (liver, HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.01-2.00, pancreas, HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.72-3.59), and certain hematological malignancies (diffuse non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, HR1.59, 95% CI 1.08-2.33, lymphoid leukemia, HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.21-2.86). Brain (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.27-2.26), lung (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.01-1.71), liver (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.14-1.89), and bone (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.04-1.76) metastases were also associated with FA. CONCLUSION: There are cancer-specific factors contributing to ED frequent attendance. Additional resources should be allocated to support high-risk groups and prevent unnecessary ED use.

Avoidable Hospital Admissions From Diabetes Complications In Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, And Communities Outside Beijing.

Improving the quality of primary care may reduce avoidable hospital admissions. Avoidable admissions for conditions such as diabetes are used as a quality metric in the Health Care Quality Indicators of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Using the OECD indicators, we compared avoidable admission rates and spending for diabetes-related complications in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and rural and peri-urban Beijing, China, in the period 2008-14. We found that spending on diabetes-related avoidable hospital admissions was substantial and increased from 2006 to 2014. Annual medical expenditures for people with an avoidable admission were six to twenty times those for people without an avoidable admission. In all of our study sites, when we controlled for severity, we found that people with more outpatient visits in a given year were less likely to experience an avoidable admission in the following year, which implies that primary care management of diabetes has the potential to improve quality and achieve cost savings. Effective policies to reduce avoidable admissions merit investigation.