Mysteriously rapid rise in Legionnaires' disease incidence correlates with declining atmospheric sulfur dioxide.

Legionnaires' disease (LD) is a severe form of pneumonia (∼10-25% fatality rate) caused by inhalation of aerosols containing Legionella, a pathogenic gram-negative bacteria. These bacteria can grow, spread, and aerosolize through building water systems. A recent dramatic increase in LD incidence has been observed globally, with a 9-fold increase in the United States from 2000 to 2018, and with disproportionately higher burden for socioeconomically vulnerable subgroups. Despite the focus of decades of research since the infamous 1976 outbreak, substantial knowledge gaps remain with regard to source of exposure and the reason(s) for the dramatic increase in LD incidence. Here, we rule out factors indicated in literature to contribute to its long-term increases and identify a hitherto unexplored explanatory factor. We also provide an epidemiological demonstration that the occurrence of LD is linked with exposure to cooling towers (CTs). Our results suggest that declining sulfur dioxide air pollution, which has many well-established health benefits, results in reduced acidity of aerosols emitted from CTs, which may prolong the survival duration of Legionella in contaminated CT droplets and contribute to the increase in LD incidence. Mechanistically associating decreasing aerosol acidity with this respiratory disease has implications for better understanding its transmission, predicting future risks, and informed design of preventive and interventional strategies that consider the complex impacts of continued sulfur dioxide changes.

Understanding the distribution of positive Legionella samples in healthcare-premise water systems: Using statistical analysis to determine a distribution for Legionella and to support sample size recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: To significantly fit a statistical distribution to the proportion of positive Legionella samples in a series of water samples from multiple facility-premise water systems. DESIGN: Statistical fit test. SETTING: A hospital and associated long-term care facility (LTCF) in New York State, as well as temporal and culture data from a deidentified hospital site supplied by one of the vendor laboratories. METHODS: Culture samples (n = 1,393) were segmented into 139 test cycles with roughly 10 samples in each. The proportion of positive samples was standardized to 25 total samples per test to give a distribution of discrete values. These values were analyzed for fit with the following discrete distributions: Poisson, negative binomial, geometric, and zero-inflated Poisson. RESULTS: The zero-inflated Poisson distribution fitted to the copper-silver ionization (CSI)-treated and untreated test cycles indicates that 88% of the expected positive proportions should occur by the 30% cutoff (rounded up to 8 positive samples among 25 total samples), similar to the 93% expectation for just CSI-treated test cycles. The other treatment in these data (chlorine dioxide) was not effective in treating Legionella in the sampled buildings, and if there is an underlying distribution to these specific test cycles, it is not the zero-inflated Poisson distribution. CONCLUSIONS: In a well-maintained or well-treated premise water distribution system, ~30% or lower proportion of positive Legionella samples should occur. Anything above that cutoff is either very unlikely or not expected at all and indicates a problem in the water system.

Are the current thresholds, indicators, and time window for cold warning effective enough to protect cardiovascular health?

More extreme cold weather and larger weather variations have raised concerns regarding their effects on public health. Although prior studies assessed the effects of cold air temperature on health, especially mortality, limited studies evaluated wind chill temperatures on morbidity, and health effects under the current cold warning threshold. This study identified the thresholds, lag periods, and best indicators of extreme cold on cardiovascular disease (CVD) by comparing effects of wind chill temperatures and cold air temperatures on CVD emergency department (ED) visits in winter and winter transition months. Information was collected on 662,625 CVD ED visits from statewide hospital discharge dataset in New York State. Meteorological factors, including air temperature, wind speed, and barometric pressure were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A case-crossover approach was used to assess the extreme cold-CVD relationship in winter (December-February) and transition months (November and March) after controlling for PM2.5. Conditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the association between cold weather factors and CVD ED visits. We observed CVD effects occurred when wind chill temperatures were as high as -3.8 °C (25 °F), warmer than current wind chill warning standard (≤-28.8 °C or ≤-20 °F). Wind chill temperature was a more sensitive indicator of CVD ED visits during winter with temperatures ≤ -3.8 °C (25 °F) with delay effect (lag 6); however, air temperature was better during transition months for temperatures ≤ 7.2 °C (45 °F) at earlier lag days (1-3). Among all CVD subtypes, hypertension ED visit had the strongest negative association with both wind chill temperature and air temperature. This study recommends modifying the current cold warning temperature threshold given larger proportions of CVD cases are occurring at considerably higher temperatures than the current criteria. We also recommend issuing cold warnings in winter transitional months.

Window of Opportunity for New Disease Surveillance: Developing Keyword Lists for Monitoring Mental Health and Injury Through Syndromic Surveillance.

Studies have documented the impact that hurricanes have on mental health and injury rates before, during, and after the event. Since timely tracking of these disease patterns is crucial to disaster planning, response, and recovery, syndromic surveillance keyword filters were developed by the New York State Department of Health to study the short- and long-term impacts of Hurricane Sandy. Emergency department syndromic surveillance is recognized as a valuable tool for informing public health activities during and immediately following a disaster. Data typically consist of daily visit reports from hospital emergency departments (EDs) of basic patient data and free-text chief complaints. To develop keyword lists, comparisons were made with existing CDC categories and then integrated with lists from the New York City and New Jersey health departments in a collaborative effort. Two comprehensive lists were developed, each containing multiple subcategories and over 100 keywords for both mental health and injury. The data classifiers using these keywords were used to assess impacts of Sandy on mental health and injuries in New York State. The lists will be validated by comparing the ED chief complaint keyword with the final ICD diagnosis code. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:173-178).

Effect of Hurricane Sandy on Health Care Services Utilization Under Medicaid.

OBJECTIVE: This investigation assessed changes in utilization of inpatient, outpatient, emergency department, and pharmacy services in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in 8 counties in New York affected by the storm. METHODS: Medicaid data for enrollees residing in 8 counties in New York were used to obtain aggregated daily counts of claims for 4 service types over immediate, 3-month, and 1-year periods following the storm. Negative binomial regression was used to compare service utilization in the storm year with the 2 prior years, within areas differentially affected by the storm. RESULTS: Changes in service utilization within areas inside or outside the storm zone were most pronounced over the 1-year effect period. Differences in service utilization by year were the same by storm zone designation over the immediate effect period for all services. CONCLUSIONS: Results are consistent with previous investigations demonstrating that some of the greatest effects of a disaster on health services utilization occur well beyond the initial event. One-year effects, combined with some 3-month effects, suggests that storm recovery, with its effect on health care services utilization, may have followed different paths in areas designated as inside or outside the storm zone. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:472-484).

Food and Waterborne Disease in the Greater New York City Area Following Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate residence in evacuation areas (storm areas) as a risk factor for food and waterborne disease (FWBD) associated with Hurricane Sandy flooding. METHODS: We captured 9601 incident outpatient and inpatient FWBD hospital discharge diagnoses for residents of the greater New York City area. We used Poisson or negative binomial regression models to compare the covariate-adjusted risk for a FWBD diagnosis, pre-Sandy (10/28-11/09, 2001-2011) vs. post-Sandy (10/28-11/09, 2012), for residents of "storm" and "non-storm" areas. RESULTS: Outpatient FWBD risk was lower for storm area residents after Hurricane Sandy (risk ratio [RR]=0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.46-0.74), and varied by age, sex, and county. However, storm area residents 65 years of age or older experienced higher risk after Hurricane Sandy (RR=2.16, 95% CI: 1.11-4.19), albeit based on few cases. Inpatient FWBD risk was lower for non-storm area residents after Hurricane Sandy (RR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.95), and varied by age, race, and county, although there was no significant change for storm area residents (RR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.69-1.08). Those ≥65 years of age were also at lower risk for inpatient FWBD diagnosis, yet the effect was weaker for storm area (RR=0.89, 95% CI: 0.67-1.18) than for non-storm area residents (RR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.52-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Hurricane preparation, mitigation, and response activities in the greater New York City area may have led to "protective" effects for FWBD. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:503-511).

What Happened to Our Environment and Mental Health as a Result of Hurricane Sandy?

OBJECTIVES: This study describes findings of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on environmental factors including power outages, air quality, water quality, and weather factors and how these affected mental health during the hurricane. METHODS: An ecological study was conducted at the county level to describe changes in environmental factors-especially power outages-and their relationships to emergency department (ED) visits for mental health problems by use of a Poisson regression model. RESULTS: We found that many environmental hazards occurred as co-exposures during Hurricane Sandy in addition to flooding. Mental health ED visits corresponded with the peak of maximum daily power blackouts, with a 3-day lag, and were positively associated with power blackouts in Bronx (prevalence ratio [PR]: 8.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27-61.42) and Queens (PR: 2.47, 95% CI: 1.05-5.82) counties. A possible dose-response relationship was found between the quantile of maximum blackout percentage and the risk of mental health in the Bronx. CONCLUSION: We found that multiple co-environmental hazards occurred during Hurricane Sandy, especially power blackouts that mediated this disaster's impacts. The effects of power outage on mental health had large geographic variations and were substantial, especially in communities with low sociodemographic status. These findings may provide new insights for future disaster response and preparedness efforts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:314-319).

Risk factors of different congenital heart defects in Guangdong, China.

BACKGROUND: Limited studies have evaluated the risk factors for congenital heart defects (CHDs) in China and compared them for different types of CHDs. This study examined risk factors between isolated and multiple CHDs as well as among CHDs subtypes in Guangdong, Southern China. METHODS: This population-based case-control study included 4,034 pairs of case and control infants enrolled in the Guangdong Registry of CHD study, 2004-2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compute adjusted odds ratios (ORs) while simultaneously controlling for confounders. RESULTS: Multiple maternal environmental exposures, including living in newly renovated rooms, residential proximity to main traffic, paternal smoking, and maternal occupation as manual worker, were significantly associated with CHDs with ORs ranging 1.30-9.43. Maternal perinatal diseases (including maternal fever, diabetes, influenza, and threatened abortion), maternal medication use (antibiotic use), advanced maternal age, low socioeconomic status, and paternal alcohol intake were also significantly associated with CHDs, with ORs ranging 1.60-3.96. Isolated CHDs and multiple defects have different profiles of risk factors, while subtype of CHD shares common risk factors. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that maternal environmental exposures/occupation and perinatal diseases/medication use were dominant risk factors associated with CHDs in Southern China. Isolated and multiple CHDs may have different etiologic factors.

Outbreak of Mycoplasma pneumoniae-Associated Stevens-Johnson Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) is an uncommon, sporadic disease and outbreaks are rare. In November 2013, an outbreak of SJS was identified at Children's Hospital Colorado. METHODS: Outbreak cases were children aged 5-21 with a discharge diagnosis of SJS admitted from September 1 to November 30, 2013. Medical charts were reviewed using standardized data collection forms. Respiratory specimens were tested for viruses and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp) by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We conducted a separate 4-year retrospective case-control study comparing hospitalized SJS cases with and without evidence of Mp infection. RESULTS: During the outbreak, 8 children met SJS criteria. Median age was 11.5 years (range 8-16 years); 5 (63%) were boys and 5 (63%) were Mp-PCR-positive. Of the 5 PCR-positive children, none had preceding medication exposure, and all had radiographic pneumonia. All outbreak Mp isolates were macrolide susceptible. The retrospective case-control analysis showed that Mp-associated SJS episodes (n = 17) were more likely to have pneumonia (odds ratio [OR] 7.5, confidence interval [CI] 1.6­35.1), preceding respiratory symptoms (OR 30.0, CI 3.3­269.4) [corrected] an erythrocyte sedimentation rate ≥35 mg/dL (OR 22.8, CI 2.1-244.9), and ≤3 affected skin sites (OR 4.5, CI 1.2-17.4) than non-Mp-associated SJS episodes (n = 23). CONCLUSIONS: We report the largest outbreak of SJS in children, which was also predominately associated with Mp infection. Mp-associated SJS was associated with a distinct clinical presentation that included less extensive skin disease, an elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and evidence of a preceding respiratory infection.