Longitudinal thermal heterogeneity in rivers and refugia for coldwater species: effects of scale and climate change.

Climate-change driven increases in water temperature pose challenges for aquatic organisms. Predictions of impacts typically do not account for fine-grained spatiotemporal thermal patterns in rivers. Patches of cooler water could serve as refuges for anadromous species like salmon that migrate during summer. We used high-resolution remotely sensed water temperature data to characterize summer thermal heterogeneity patterns for 11,308 km of 2nd- to 7th-order rivers throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern California (USA). We evaluated (1) water temperature patterns at different spatial resolutions, (2) the frequency, size, and spacing of cool thermal patches suitable for Pacific salmon (i.e., contiguous stretches ≥0.25 km, ≤15°C and ≥2°C cooler than adjacent water), and (3) potential influences of climate change on availability of cool patches. Thermal heterogeneity was nonlinearly related to the spatial resolution of water temperature data, and heterogeneity at fine resolution (<1 km) would have been difficult to quantify without spatially continuous data. Cool patches were generally >2.7 and <13.0 km long, and spacing among patches was generally >5.7 and <49.4 km. Thermal heterogeneity varied among rivers, some of which had long uninterrupted stretches of warm water ≥20°C, and others had many smaller cool patches. Our models predicted little change in future thermal heterogeneity among rivers, but within-river patterns sometimes changed markedly compared to contemporary patterns. These results can inform long-term monitoring programs as well as near-term climate-adaptation strategies.

Case studies of conservation plans that incorporate geodiversity.

Geodiversity has been used as a surrogate for biodiversity when species locations are unknown, and this utility can be extended to situations where species locations are in flux. Recently, scientists have designed conservation networks that aim to explicitly represent the range of geophysical environments, identifying a network of physical stages that could sustain biodiversity while allowing for change in species composition in response to climate change. Because there is no standard approach to designing such networks, we compiled 8 case studies illustrating a variety of ways scientists have approached the challenge. These studies show how geodiversity has been partitioned and used to develop site portfolios and connectivity designs; how geodiversity-based portfolios compare with those derived from species and communities; and how the selection and combination of variables influences the results. Collectively, they suggest 4 key steps when using geodiversity to augment traditional biodiversity-based conservation planning: create land units from species-relevant variables combined in an ecologically meaningful way; represent land units in a logical spatial configuration and integrate with species locations when possible; apply selection criteria to individual sites to ensure they are appropriate for conservation; and develop connectivity among sites to maintain movements and processes. With these considerations, conservationists can design more effective site portfolios to ensure the lasting conservation of biodiversity under a changing climate.

Projected climate-driven faunal movement routes.

Historically, many species moved great distances as climates changed. However, modern movements will be limited by the patterns of human-dominated landscapes. Here, we use a combination of projected climate-driven shifts in the distributions of 2903 vertebrate species, estimated current human impacts on the landscape, and movement models, to determine through which areas in the western hemisphere species will likely need to move to track suitable climates. Our results reveal areas with projected high densities of climate-driven movements - including, the Amazon Basin, the southeastern United States and southeastern Brazil. Some of these regions, such as southern Bolivia and northern Paraguay, contain relatively intact landscapes, whereas others such as the southeastern United States and Brazil are heavily impacted by human activities. Thus, these results highlight both critical areas for protecting lands that will foster movement, and barriers where human land-use activities will likely impede climate-driven shifts in species distributions.

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.

Empowerment and continuous improvement in the United States, Mexico, Poland, and India: predicting fit on the basis of the dimensions of power distance and individualism.

Although variations in national cultures predominate as explanation for the belief that universal approaches to management do not exist, there have been few reports of systematic studies. Data from employees of a single firm with operations in the United States, Mexico, Poland, and India were used to test the fit of empowerment and continuous improvement practices with national culture. Using the theoretical constructs of individualism-collectivism and power distance, the authors predicted that the practices would be more congruent in some cultures than in others and that value congruence would result in job satisfaction. Using structural equations modeling, the authors found that empowerment was negatively associated with satisfaction in India but positively associated in the other 3 samples. Continuous improvement was positively associated with satisfaction in all samples. Substantive, theoretical, and methodological implications are discussed.