Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use.

In order to evaluate the impact of various intervention strategies on Plasmodium vivax dynamics in low endemicity settings without significant seasonal pattern, we introduce a simple mathematical model that can be easily adapted to reported case numbers similar to that collected by surveillance systems in various countries. The model includes case management, vector control, mass drug administration and reactive case detection interventions and is implemented in both deterministic and stochastic frameworks. It is available as an R package to enable users to calibrate and simulate it with their own data. Although we only illustrate its use on fictitious data, by simulating and comparing the impact of various intervention combinations on malaria risk and burden, this model could be a useful tool for strategic planning, implementation and resource mobilization.

Time, place, and people: composition of the EPIET Alumni Network and its contribution to the European public health resource in 2013.

The EPIET Alumni Network (EAN) is an association of professionals who have completed field epidemiology or public health microbiology training programmes in the European Union. In 2013, we conducted a survey of EAN members to investigate this network's role within European public health. We distributed an online questionnaire to members registered at the time, collecting data on demographics, professional background, and attitudes towards EAN. Out of 362 registered members, 189 (52%) responded; 97% were from Europe; 65% were female. Their mean age was 39 years. The highest academic qualification was PhD for 44% and Master's degree for 55%. The majority (60%) worked in public health institutes. They were especially satisfied with having access to job offers and professional networking via EAN, but requested more learning opportunities and knowledge-sharing between members. EAN is a unique platform where highly skilled professionals can connect to control infectious diseases locally and internationally. Having a network of professionals that know each other, speak the same 'language', and can easily access each other's expertise, represents an important resource for European and global public health, which should be nurtured by encouraging more collaborations devoted to professional development.

Duration of shedding of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli in children and risk of transmission in childcare facilities in England.

Exclusion of children with presumptive Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) from childcare facilities until negative stool specimens are obtained is routine practice that disrupts families. We estimated the shedding and exclusion duration and transmission risk in such facilities. The study population comprised 225 children aged <6 years attending 201 childcare facilities in England with microbiologically confirmed VTEC in 2010-2011. We estimated the interval from onset to first negative specimen, and identified transmission events with secondary cases linked to facilities. The median duration of shedding was 31 days, and median period of exclusion was 39·5 days. Cases attending facilities while shedding VTEC did so for a median of 2 days before exclusion. Secondary cases occurred in 6/83 facilities (7%) attended by infectious cases. Despite evidence of VTEC shedding at facilities, transmission is relatively low. Revised control guidelines could consider supervised return for prolonged asymptomatic shedders.

Emergence of a new genetic lineage of Newcastle disease virus in West and Central Africa--implications for diagnosis and control.

Newcastle disease (ND) is an OIE listed disease caused by virulent avian paramyxovirus type 1 (APMV-1) strains, which affect many species of birds and may cause severe economic losses in the poultry sector. The disease has been officially and unofficially reported in many African countries and still remains the main poultry disease in commercial and rural chickens of Africa. Unfortunately, virological and epidemiological information concerning ND strains circulating in the Western and Central regions of Africa is extremely scarce. In the present study, sequence analysis, pathotyping and detailed genetic characterization of virulent ND strains detected in rural poultry in West and Central Africa revealed the circulation of a new genetic lineage, distinguishable from the lineages described in the Eastern and Southern parts of the continent. Several mismatches were observed in the segment of the matrix gene targeted by the primers and probe designed for the molecular detection of APMV-1, which were responsible for the false negative results in the diagnostic test conducted. Furthermore, deduced amino acid sequences of the two major antigens eliciting a protective immune response (F and HN glycoprotein) revealed protein similarities <90% if compared to some common vaccine strains. Distinct mutations located in the neutralizing epitopes were revealed, indicating the need for detailed assessment of the efficacy of the current vaccines and vaccination practices in Africa. The present investigation provides important information on the epidemiology, diagnosis and control of NDV in Africa and highlights the importance of supporting surveillance in developing countries for transboundary animal diseases.

Time is of the essence: exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger.

The current World Health Organization recommendations for response during measles epidemics focus on case management rather than outbreak response vaccination (ORV) campaigns, which may occur too late to impact morbidity and mortality and have a high cost per case prevented. Here, we explore the potential impact of an ORV campaign conducted during the 2003-2004 measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. We measured the impact of this intervention and also the potential impact of alternative strategies. Using a unique geographical, epidemiologic and demographic dataset collected during the epidemic, we developed an individual-based simulation model. We estimate that a median of 7.6% [4.9-8.9] of cases were potentially averted as a result of the outbreak response, which vaccinated approximately 57% (84563 of an estimated 148600) of children in the target age range (6-59 months), 23 weeks after the epidemic started. We found that intervening early (up to 60 days after the start of the epidemic) and expanding the age range to all children aged 6 months to 15 years may lead to a much larger (up to 90%) reduction in the number of cases in a West African urban setting like Niamey. Our results suggest that intervening earlier even with lower target coverage (approx. 60%), but a wider age range, may be more effective than intervening later with high coverage (more than 90%) in similar settings. This has important implications for the implementation of reactive vaccination interventions as they can be highly effective if the response is fast with respect to the spread of the epidemic.

[Evaluation of the prevalence and management of normocholesterolaemic and non coronary hypertensives in France]. / Evaluation de la prévalence et de la prise en charge des hypertendus normo-cholestérolémiques et non coronariens en France.

We performed a study amongst hypertensive patients who consulted French general practitioners in the Sentinelles network. Firstly, the significance of this population in mainland France was quantified by keeping a register of all hypertensive patients aged over 40 years seen in a general practice consultation, and secondly the distribution of risk factors and management of normocholesterolaemic (total cholesterol < or = 2.5 g/l) without lipid lowering treatment and non coronary patients was described more precisely. Analysis of the population of 7864 hypertensives from this register showed that on average one doctor saw 3 hypertensive patients a day and that about half of them (54%) were normocholesterolaemic, non coronary patients. Analysis of this sub-population of 2519 patients showed that 19.9% of them had at least 3 of the other cardiovascular risk factors described in the ASCOT study (Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial) and that 39.5% had controlled hypertension according to the New York Heart Association classification. The extrapolated number of hypertensive, non coronary patients who were normocholesterolaemic without lipid lowering treatment was estimated as 4.6 million (4.1:5.1) for the whole of France.