Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is likely to affect transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. We quantitatively estimated current malaria exposure and assessed the potential effect of projected climate scenarios on malaria transmission. METHODS: We produced a spatiotemporally validated (against 3791 parasite surveys) model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa. Using different climate scenarios from the Hadley Centre global climate model (HAD CM3) climate experiments, we projected the potential effect of climate change on transmission patterns. FINDINGS: Our model showed sensitivity and specificity of 63% and 96%, respectively (within 1 month temporal accuracy), when compared with the parasite surveys. We estimate that on average there are 3.1 billion person-months of exposure (445 million people exposed) in Africa per year. The projected scenarios would estimate a 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution with surprisingly little increase in the latitudinal extents of the disease by 2100. Of the overall potential increase (although transmission will decrease in some countries) of 16-28% in person-months of exposure (assuming a constant population), a large proportion will be seen in areas of existing transmission. INTERPRETATION: The effect of projected climate change indicates that a prolonged transmission season is as important as geographical expansion in correct assessment of the effect of changes in transmission patterns. Our model constitutes a valid baseline against which climate scenarios can be assessed and interventions planned.

The application of geographical information systems to important public health problems in Africa.

Africa is generally held to be in crisis, and the quality of life for the majority of the continent's inhabitants has been declining in both relative and absolute terms. In addition, the majority of the world's disease burden is realised in Africa. Geographical information systems (GIS) technology, therefore, is a tool of great inherent potential for health research and management in Africa. The spatial modelling capacity offered by GIS is directly applicable to understanding the spatial variation of disease, and its relationship to environmental factors and the health care system. Whilst there have been numerous critiques of the application of GIS technology to developed world health problems it has been less clear whether the technology is both applicable and sustainable in an African setting. If the potential for GIS to contribute to health research and planning in Africa is to be properly evaluated then the technology must be applicable to the most pressing health problems in the continent. We briefly outline the work undertaken in HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (diseases of significant public health impact and contrasting modes of transmission), outline GIS trends relevant to Africa and describe some of the obstacles to the sustainable implementation of GIS. We discuss types of viable GIS applications and conclude with a discussion of the types of African health problems of particular relevance to the application of GIS.