Dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase gene variants for predicting grade 4-5 fluoropyrimidine-induced toxicity: FUSAFE individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) deficiency is the main known cause of life-threatening fluoropyrimidine (FP)-induced toxicities. We conducted a meta-analysis on individual patient data to assess the contribution of deleterious DPYD variants *2A/D949V/*13/HapB3 (recommended by EMA) and clinical factors, for predicting G4-5 toxicity. METHODS: Study eligibility criteria included recruitment of Caucasian patients without DPD-based FP-dose adjustment. Main endpoint was 12-week haematological or digestive G4-5 toxicity. The value of DPYD variants *2A/p.D949V/*13 merged, HapB3, and MIR27A rs895819 was evaluated using multivariable logistic models (AUC). RESULTS: Among 25 eligible studies, complete clinical variables and primary endpoint were available in 15 studies (8733 patients). Twelve-week G4-5 toxicity prevalence was 7.3% (641 events). The clinical model included age, sex, body mass index, schedule of FP-administration, concomitant anticancer drugs. Adding *2A/p.D949V/*13 variants (at least one allele, prevalence 2.2%, OR 9.5 [95%CI 6.7-13.5]) significantly improved the model (p < 0.0001). The addition of HapB3 (prevalence 4.0%, 98.6% heterozygous), in spite of significant association with toxicity (OR 1.8 [95%CI 1.2-2.7]), did not improve the model. MIR27A rs895819 was not associated with toxicity, irrespective of DPYD variants. CONCLUSIONS: FUSAFE meta-analysis highlights the major relevance of DPYD *2A/p.D949V/*13 combined with clinical variables to identify patients at risk of very severe FP-related toxicity.

Diffuse midline glioma invasion and metastasis rely on cell-autonomous signaling.

BACKGROUND: Diffuse midline gliomas (DMG) are pediatric tumors with negligible 2-year survival after diagnosis characterized by their ability to infiltrate the central nervous system. In the hope of controlling the local growth and slowing the disease, all patients receive radiotherapy. However, distant progression occurs frequently in DMG patients. Current clues as to what causes tumor infiltration circle mainly around the tumor microenvironment, but there are currently no known determinants to predict the degree of invasiveness. METHODS: In this study, we use patient-derived glioma stem cells (GSCs) to create patient-specific 3D avatars to model interindividual invasion and elucidate the cellular supporting mechanisms. RESULTS: We show that GSC models in 3D mirror the invasive behavior of the parental tumors, thus proving the ability of DMG to infiltrate as an autonomous characteristic of tumor cells. Furthermore, we distinguished 2 modes of migration, mesenchymal and ameboid-like, and associated the ameboid-like modality with GSCs derived from the most invasive tumors. Using transcriptomics of both organoids and primary tumors, we further characterized the invasive ameboid-like tumors as oligodendrocyte progenitor-like, with highly contractile cytoskeleton and reduced adhesion ability driven by crucial over-expression of bone morphogenetic pathway 7 (BMP7). Finally, we deciphered MEK, ERK, and Rho/ROCK kinases activated downstream of the BMP7 stimulation as actionable targets controlling tumor cell motility. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings identify 2 new therapeutic avenues. First, patient-derived GSCs represent a predictive tool for patient stratification in order to adapt irradiation strategies. Second, autocrine and short-range BMP7-related signaling becomes a druggable target to prevent DMG spread and metastasis.

A framework to characterise the reproducibility of meta-analysis results with its application to direct oral anticoagulants in the acute treatment of venous thromboembolism.

The number of meta-analyses of aggregate data has dramatically increased due to the facility of obtaining data from publications and the development of free, easy-to-use, and specialised statistical software. Even when meta-analyses include the same studies, their results may vary owing to different methodological choices. Assessment of the replication of meta-analysis provides an example of the variation of effect 'naturally' observed between multiple research projects. Reproducibility of results has mostly been reported using graphical descriptive representations. A quantitative analysis of such results would enable (i) breakdown of the total observed variability with quantification of the variability generated by the replication process and (ii) identification of which variables account for this variability, such as methodological quality or the statistical analysis procedures used. These variables might explain systematic mean differences between results and dispersion of the results. To quantitatively characterise the reproducibility of meta-analysis results, a bivariate linear mixed-effects model was developed to simulate both mean results and their corresponding uncertainty. Results were assigned to several replication groups, those assessing the same studies, outcomes, treatment indication and comparisons classified in the same replication group. A nested random effect structure was used to break down the total variability within each replication group and between these groups to enable calculation of an intragroup correlation coefficient and quantification of reproducibility. Determinants of variability were investigated by modelling both mean and variance parameters using covariates. The proposed model was applied to the example of meta-analyses evaluating direct oral anticoagulants in the acute treatment of venous thromboembolism.

Post-treatment sperm cryopreservation practices in childhood and young adult cancer survivors.

RESEARCH QUESTION: What are current practices of post-treatment fertility preservation in male childhood cancer survivors (CCS) who have not benefitted from pre-therapeutic fertility preservation in France and other European countries? DESIGN: A survey was conducted of all fertility preservation centres in France (n = 30) and European fertility specialists (n = 9) in five European countries. Eight clinical cases and 40 questions were included to assess the effect of age at diagnosis, type of treatment (alkylating-agents, orchidectomy, testicular radiotherapy) and sperm parameters on the probability of a post-treatment fertility preservation proposal. Demographic characteristics of the responding practitioner were also collected. RESULTS: Post-treatment sperm cryopreservation was proposed by 100% of fertility specialists in cases of severe oligoasthenoteratozoospermia, 77-88% in cases of moderate oligoasthenoteratozoospermia and in 65-77% in cases of sperm motility and vitality impairment. In cases of normal sperm parameters, 27-54% of fertility specialists would propose post-treatment sperm cryopreservation. These results did not differ significantly according to the type of treatment received or to responder-related factors. Practices of European specialists were also guided by sperm parameter results; 44-67% of specialists responding that they would propose sperm cryopreservation in cases of moderate to severe sperm parameter alterations. CONCLUSION: Post-treatment semen analysis could be widely proposed to CCS who have not benefitted from pre-therapeutic fertility preservation. Post-treatment fertility preservation could be proposed in cases of persistent moderate to severe sperm parameter alterations. Guidelines would be important to homogenize practices and to encourage oncologists to refer CCS for fertility assessments.

Favoring the hierarchical constraint in penalized survival models for randomized trials in precision medicine.

BACKGROUND: The research of biomarker-treatment interactions is commonly investigated in randomized clinical trials (RCT) for improving medicine precision. The hierarchical interaction constraint states that an interaction should only be in a model if its main effects are also in the model. However, this constraint is not guaranteed in the standard penalized statistical approaches. We aimed to find a compromise for high-dimensional data between the need for sparse model selection and the need for the hierarchical constraint. RESULTS: To favor the property of the hierarchical interaction constraint, we proposed to create groups composed of the biomarker main effect and its interaction with treatment and to perform the bi-level selection on these groups. We proposed two weighting approaches (Single Wald (SW) and likelihood ratio test (LRT)) for the adaptive lasso method. The selection performance of these two approaches is compared to alternative lasso extensions (adaptive lasso with ridge-based weights, composite Minimax Concave Penalty, group exponential lasso and Sparse Group Lasso) through a simulation study. A RCT (NSABP B-31) randomizing 1574 patients (431 events) with early breast cancer aiming to evaluate the effect of adjuvant trastuzumab on distant-recurrence free survival with expression data from 462 genes measured in the tumour will serve for illustration. The simulation study illustrates that the adaptive lasso LRT and SW, and the group exponential lasso favored the hierarchical interaction constraint. Overall, in the alternative scenarios, they had the best balance of false discovery and false negative rates for the main effects of the selected interactions. For NSABP B-31, 12 gene-treatment interactions were identified more than 20% by the different methods. Among them, the adaptive lasso (SW) approach offered the best trade-off between a high number of selected gene-treatment interactions and a high proportion of selection of both the gene-treatment interaction and its main effect. CONCLUSIONS: Adaptive lasso with Single Wald and likelihood ratio test weighting and the group exponential lasso approaches outperformed their competitors in favoring the hierarchical constraint of the biomarker-treatment interaction. However, the performance of the methods tends to decrease in the presence of prognostic biomarkers.

Response to first line platinum-based chemotherapy in mismatch repair deficient (MMRd)/ microsatellite instability high (MSI-high) endometrial carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Around 15% of metastatic endometrial carcinoma (EC) are MMRd/MSI-H improving response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). So far, few data existed considering the chemotherapy (CT) sensitivity in MMRd/MSI-H EC, especially response to first-line platinum-based treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a multicentric retrospective analysis reporting the response to first line platinum CT in MMRd/MSI-H EC patients. The primary endpoints were objective response rate (ORR) and progression-free survival (PFS) with first line platinum-based CT. RESULTS: A total of 112 patients MMRd/MSI-H EC from 8 centers were identified. Median overall survival was 58.0 months (95% CI: 45.3-95.1). Among them, 78 patients received first line platinum CT in recurrent/metastatic setting. With a median follow up of 32.6 months (min: 0.03; max: 135.0), ORR and DCR (disease control rate) were 50% (95% CI: 38.5-61.5) and 68% (95% CI: 56.4-78.1), respectively. Median PFS and OS from first line platinum-based CT was 7.8 months (95% CI: 6.0-9.0) and 51.9 months (95% CI: 28.0-NE), respectively. Median PFS with ICI in second line (n = 48) was 10.7 months (95% CI: 3.4-NE) from ICI initiation. CONCLUSION: ORR in first line metastatic MMRd/MSI-H EC is consistent with efficacy in an all comer metastatic EC population.

Escherichia coli-Specific CXCL13-Producing TFH Are Associated with Clinical Efficacy of Neoadjuvant PD-1 Blockade against Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer.

Biomarkers guiding the neoadjuvant use of immune-checkpoint blockers (ICB) are needed for patients with localized muscle-invasive bladder cancers (MIBC). Profiling tumor and blood samples, we found that follicular helper CD4+ T cells (TFH) are among the best therapeutic targets of pembrolizumab correlating with progression-free survival. TFH were associated with tumoral CD8 and PD-L1 expression at baseline and the induction of tertiary lymphoid structures after pembrolizumab. Blood central memory TFH accumulated in tumors where they produce CXCL13, a chemokine found in the plasma of responders only. IgG4+CD38+ TFH residing in bladder tissues correlated with clinical benefit. Finally, TFH and IgG directed against urothelium-invasive Escherichia coli dictated clinical responses to pembrolizumab in three independent cohorts. The links between tumor infection and success of ICB immunomodulation should be prospectively assessed at a larger scale. SIGNIFICANCE: In patients with bladder cancer treated with neoadjuvant pembrolizumab, E. coli-specific CXCL13 producing TFH and IgG constitute biomarkers that predict clinical benefit. Beyond its role as a biomarker, such immune responses against E. coli might be harnessed for future therapeutic strategies. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 2221.

Weight and skeletal muscle loss with cabozantinib in metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Cabozantinib, a standard of care metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), may be associated with weight and muscle loss. These effects of new generation VEGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor on muscle mass loss are poorly described. METHODS: All cabozantinib-treated mRCC patients from January 2014 to February 2019 in our institution were included. Clinical data including weight were collected during therapy. Computed tomography images were centrally reviewed for response assessment, and axial sections at the third lumbar vertebrae were used to measure the total muscle area. Toxicities and cabozantinib outcomes were evaluated. Co-primary endpoints included skeletal muscle loss and weight loss (WL), longitudinally evaluated during treatment. WL has been classified according to CTCAEv5.0: Grade 1 (loss of 5 to <10% of baseline body weight), Grade 2 (loss of 10% to <20% of baseline body weight), and Grades 3-4 (loss >20% of baseline body weight). RESULTS: Patients were mostly men (70.3%), median age was 59.2 (range: 22.0-78.0) years, and median baseline body mass index was 25.0 (range: 16.4-49.3) kg/cm2 . Prognosis according to International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium score was good, intermediate, and poor for 13 (13.0%), 63 (63.0%), and 24 (24.0%) patients, respectively. Out of a total of 120 patients, 101 patients with a median follow-up of 22.3 months (range: 4.5-62.2) were eligible for analysis; 85 experienced muscle loss and muscle loss >10% increased during cabozantinib exposition, especially after 6 months of treatment. At cabozantinib baseline, 71 patients (70.3%) had sarcopenia, and 16/30 (53.3%) non-sarcopenic patients developed sarcopenia during treatment. Baseline sarcopenia was associated with lower response rates (P = 0.031) and higher grades 3-4 toxicities (P = 0.001). Out of 92 patients included in the WL analysis, 44 (47.8%) and 12 (13.0%) experienced grades 2 and 3 WL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We report a high incidence of grades 3-4 WL, fourth times higher than reported in prior pivotal trials, and half of the patients developed sarcopenia while on cabozantinib treatment. Weight and muscle mass loss with cabozantinib are underreported and may require further investigations and early management.

Penalized Poisson model for network meta-analysis of individual patient time-to-event data.

Network meta-analysis (NMA) allows the combination of direct and indirect evidence from a set of randomized clinical trials. Performing NMA using individual patient data (IPD) is considered as a "gold standard" approach as it provides several advantages over NMA based on aggregate data. For example, it allows to perform advanced modeling of covariates or covariate-treatment interactions. An important issue in IPD NMA is the selection of influential parameters among terms that account for inconsistency, covariates, covariate-by-treatment interactions or nonproportionality of treatments effect for time to event data. This issue has not been deeply studied in the literature yet and in particular not for time-to-event data. A major difficulty is to jointly account for between-trial heterogeneity which could have a major influence on the selection process. The use of penalized generalized mixed effect model is a solution, but existing implementations have several shortcomings and an important computational cost that precludes their use for complex IPD NMA. In this article, we propose a penalized Poisson regression model to perform IPD NMA of time-to-event data. It is based only on fixed effect parameters which improve its computational cost over the use of random effects. It could be easily implemented using existing penalized regression package. Computer code is shared for implementation. The methods were applied on simulated data to illustrate the importance to take into account between trial heterogeneity during the selection procedure. Finally, it was applied to an IPD NMA of overall survival of chemotherapy and radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

A two-stage drop-the-losers design for time-to-event outcome using a historical control arm.

Phase II immuno-oncology clinical trials screen for efficacy an increasing number of treatments. In rare cancers, using historical control data is a pragmatic approach for speeding up clinical trials. The drop-the-losers design allows dropping off ineffective arms at interim analyses. We extended the original drop-the-losers design for a time-to-event outcome using a historical control through the one-sample log-rank statistic. Simulated trials featured three arms at the first stage, one at the second stage, nine scenarios, eight sample sizes with 5%- and 10%- nominal family-wise error rate (FWER). A numerical algorithm is provided to solve power calculations at the design stage. Our design was compared with a group of three independent single-arm trials (fixed design) with and without correction for multiplicity. Our design allowed strict control of the FWER at nominal levels while the misspecification of survival distribution and fixed design inflated the FWER up to three times the nominal level. The empirical power of our design increased with the sample size, the treatment effect and the number of effective treatments and dropped when more patients were recruited at the second stage. The fixed design with correction showed comparable power, while our design advantageously included more patients to the most promising arm. Recommendations for future applications are given. By taking advantage of the use of historical control data and a time-to-event outcome, the drop-the-losers design is a promising tool to meet the challenge of improving phase II clinical trials in immuno-oncology.

A frequentist one-step model for a simple network meta-analysis of time-to-event data in presence of an effect modifier.

INTRODUCTION: Individual patient data (IPD) present particular advantages in network meta-analysis (NMA) because interactions may lead an aggregated data (AD)-based model to wrong a treatment effect (TE) estimation. However, fewer works have been conducted for IPD with time-to-event contrary to binary outcomes. We aimed to develop a general frequentist one-step model for evaluating TE in the presence of interaction in a three-node NMA for time-to-event data. METHODS: One-step, frequentist, IPD-based Cox and Poisson generalized linear mixed models were proposed. We simulated a three-node network with or without a closed loop with (1) no interaction, (2) covariate-treatment interaction, and (3) covariate distribution heterogeneity and covariate-treatment interaction. These models were applied to the NMA (Meta-analyses of Chemotherapy in Head and Neck Cancer [MACH-NC] and Radiotherapy in Carcinomas of Head and Neck [MARCH]), which compared the addition of chemotherapy or modified radiotherapy (mRT) to loco-regional treatment with two direct comparisons. AD-based (contrast and meta-regression) models were used as reference. RESULTS: In the simulated study, no IPD models failed to converge. IPD-based models performed well in all scenarios and configurations with small bias. There were few variations across different scenarios. In contrast, AD-based models performed well when there were no interactions, but demonstrated some bias when interaction existed and a larger one when the modifier was not distributed evenly. While meta-regression performed better than contrast-based only, it demonstrated a large variability in estimated TE. In the real data example, Cox and Poisson IPD-based models gave similar estimations of the model parameters. Interaction decomposition permitted by IPD explained the ecological bias observed in the meta-regression. CONCLUSION: The proposed general one-step frequentist Cox and Poisson models had small bias in the evaluation of a three-node network with interactions. They performed as well or better than AD-based models and should also be undertaken whenever possible.

Involvement of PBRM1 in VHL disease-associated clear cell renal cell carcinoma and its putative relationship with the HIF pathway.

Von Hippel-Lindau (VHL) disease is the main cause of inherited clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) and is caused by germline mutations in the VHL tumor suppressor gene. Bi-allelic VHL alterations lead to inactivation of pVHL, which plays a major role by downstream activation of the hypoxia inducible factor (HIF) pathway. Somatic VHL mutations occur in 80% of sporadic ccRCC cases and the second most frequently mutated gene is polybromo 1 (PBRM1). As there is currently no data regarding PBRM1 involvement in VHL disease-associated ccRCC, the aim of the present study was to assess the PBRM1 mutational status, and PBRM1 and HIF expression in VHL disease-associated ccRCC series compared with a sporadic series. PBRM1 gene was screened by Sanger sequencing for 23 VHL-disease-associated ccRCC and 22 sporadic ccRCC cases. Immunohistochemical studies were performed to detect the expression of PBRM1, HIF1 and HIF2 for all cases. In VHL-associated tumors, 13.0% (n=3/23) had PBRM1 somatic mutations and 17.4% (n=4/23) had a loss of PBRM1 nuclear expression. In sporadic cases, 27.3% (n=6/22) showed PBRM1 somatic mutations and 45.5% (n=10/22) had a loss of PBRM1 nuclear expression. Loss of PBRM1 was associated with an advanced tumor stage. HIF1-positive tumors were observed more frequently in the VHL-associated ccRCC than in the sporadic series. Furthermore, in the VHL cohort, PBRM1 expression appeared to be associated more with HIF1 than with HIF2. Given that hereditary tumors tend to be less aggressive, these results would suggest that co-expression of PBRM1 and HIF1 may have a less oncogenic role in VHL-associated ccRCC.

Screening for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR: Saliva or nasopharyngeal swab? Rapid review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients and screening of populations for SARS-CoV-2 infection require access to straightforward, low-cost and high-throughput testing. The recommended nasopharyngeal swab tests are limited by the need of trained professionals and specific consumables and this procedure is poorly accepted as a screening method In contrast, saliva sampling can be self-administered. METHODS: In order to compare saliva and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal samples for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, we designed a meta-analysis searching in PubMed up to December 29th, 2020 with the key words "(SARS-CoV-2 OR COVID-19 OR COVID19) AND (salivary OR saliva OR oral fluid)) NOT (review[Publication Type]) NOT (PrePrint[Publication Type])" applying the following criteria: records published in peer reviewed scientific journals, in English, with at least 15 nasopharyngeal/orapharyngeal swabs and saliva paired samples tested by RT-PCR, studies with available raw data including numbers of positive and negative tests with the two sampling methods. For all studies, concordance and sensitivity were calculated and then pooled in a random-effects model. FINDINGS: A total of 377 studies were retrieved, of which 50 were eligible, reporting on 16,473 pairs of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal and saliva samples. Meta-analysis showed high concordance, 92.5% (95%CI: 89.5-94.7), across studies and pooled sensitivities of 86.5% (95%CI: 83.4-89.1) and 92.0% (95%CI: 89.1-94.2) from saliva and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs respectively. Heterogeneity across studies was 72.0% for saliva and 85.0% for nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs. INTERPRETATION: Our meta-analysis strongly suggests that saliva could be used for frequent testing of COVID-19 patients and "en masse" screening of populations.

Prognostic Clinical and Biologic Features for Overall Survival after Relapse in Childhood Medulloblastoma.

Given the very poor prognosis for children with recurrent medulloblastoma, we aimed to identify prognostic factors for survival post-relapse in children with childhood medulloblastoma. We retrospectively collected clinico-biological data at diagnosis and main clinical characteristics at relapse of children newly diagnosed with a medulloblastoma between 2007 and 2017 at Gustave Roussy and Necker Hospital. At a median follow-up of 6.6 years (range, 0.4-12.3 years), relapse occurred in 48 out 155 patients (31%). The median time from diagnosis to relapse was 14.3 months (range, 1.2-87.2 months). Relapse was local in 9, metastatic in 22 and combined (local and metastatic) in 17 patients. Second-line treatment consisted of chemotherapy in 31 cases, radiotherapy in 9, SHH-inhibitor in four and no treatment in the remaining four. The 1-year overall survival rate post-relapse was 44.8% (CI 95%, 31.5% to 59.0%). While molecular subgrouping at diagnosis was significantly associated with survival post-relapse, the use of radiotherapy at relapse and time to first relapse (>12 months) might also have a potential impact on post-relapse survival.

Identification of international metastatic renal cell carcinoma database consortium (IMDC) intermediate-risk subgroups in patients with metastatic clear-cell renal cell carcinoma.

Majority of patients with clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) at first line (1L) treatment are classified in the intermediate-risk (IR) subgroup according to International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium (IMDC) score. As these patients have different prognosis, the aim of this study is to better characterize IR patients in order to better tailor the treatment. Retrospective analysis was performed from IGReCC (Institut Gustave Roussy Renal Cell Carcinoma) database. Overall survival (OS) was defined from start of 1L therapy to death or last follow-up. A multivariable Cox model with backward selection procedure (α = 0.01) and a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis were performed to identify which prognostic factors were associated to OS in IR patients. From 2005 to 2017, 777 patients with ccRCC were treated with an anti-VEGF 1L therapy. Among 571 evaluable patients for IMDC score, 290 (51%) were classified as IR. With median follow-up 5.8 years (min: 0, max: 12.4) 212 deaths (73%) were observed and median OS was 25 months. Only platelet count was significantly associated to OS (hazard ratio 1.88 [95% CI 1.27-2.88] p = 0.0017). Median OS for patients with PLT > UNL was 18 months [95% CI 12-23] versus 29 months [95% CI 21.4-35.7] for patients with normal PLT count. The selection of PLT count was confirmed on bootstrap samples and was also selected for the first split of the CART-tree analysis. Patients in the IR group have a heterogeneous prognosis. Elevated PLT count seems identifies a subgroup of patients with poor outcome in the IMDC intermediate-risk population with ccRCC.

Phase I study of vinblastine in combination with nilotinib in children, adolescents, and young adults with refractory or recurrent low-grade glioma.

BACKGROUND: New rescue regimens are needed for pediatric refractory/recurrent low-grade glioma. Nilotinib is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor that has potential synergistic effects with vinblastine on angiogenesis, tumor cell growth, and immunomodulation. METHODS: This phase I trial aimed to determine the recommended doses of this combination for phase II trials (RP2D) using the dual-agent Bayesian continual reassessment method. Nilotinib was given orally twice daily (BID) in combination with once-weekly vinblastine injections for a maximum of 12 cycles of 28 days (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01884922). RESULTS: Thirty-five pediatric patients were enrolled across 4 dose levels. The median age was 7 years and 10 had neurofibromatosis type 1. Patients had received a median of 3 prior treatment lines and 25% had received more than 4 previous treatment lines. Dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) during cycle 1 was hematologic, dermatologic, and cardiovascular. The RP2D was identified at 3 mg/m2 weekly for vinblastine with 230 mg/m2 BID for nilotinib (estimated probability of DLT = 18%; 95% credibility interval, 7-29%). Fifteen patients completed the 12 cycles; 2 stopped therapy prematurely due to toxicity and 18 due to disease progression. Three patients achieved a partial response leading to an objective response rate of 8.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-23.7), and the disease control rate was 85.3% (95% CI, 68.9-95.1). The 12-month progression-free survival was 37.1% (95% CI, 23.2-53.67). CONCLUSIONS: Vinblastine and nilotinib combination was mostly limited by myelosuppression and dermatologic toxicity. The efficacy of the combination at the RP2D is currently evaluated in a randomized phase II trial comparing this regimen to vinblastine alone.

WHO grade has no prognostic value in the pediatric high-grade glioma included in the HERBY trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) adult glioma grading system is questionable in pediatric high-grade gliomas (pHGGs), which are biologically distinct from adult HGGs. We took advantage of the neuropathological review data obtained during one of the largest prospective randomized pHGG trials, namely HERBY (NCT01390948), to address this issue in children with newly diagnosed non-brainstem HGG. METHODS: HGG diagnosis was confirmed by pre-randomization, real-time central pathology review using WHO 2007 criteria, followed by a consensus review blinded to clinical factors and outcomes. We evaluated association between WHO 2007 grade and other clinical/radiological/biological characteristics and the prognostic value of WHO 2007 grade, midline location, and selected biomarkers (Ki-67 index/Olig2/CD34/EGFR/p53/H3F3A K27M mutation) on overall survival. RESULTS: Real-time central neuropathological review was feasible in a multicenter study, with a mean time of 2.4 days, and led to the rejection of HGG diagnosis in 20 of 163 cases (12.3%). The different grading criteria and resulting WHO grade were not significantly associated with overall survival in the entire population (n = 118) or in midline and non-midline subgroups. H3F3A K27M mutation was significantly associated with poor outcome. No significant prognostic value was observed for grade, even after regrading H3F3A K27M-mutated midline glioma as grade IV (WHO 2016). Midline location and a high Ki-67 index (≥20%) were associated with poor outcome (P = 0.004 and P = 0.04, respectively). A 10% increase in Ki-67 index was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.53 (95% CI: 1.27-1.83; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that WHO grade III versus IV has no prognostic value in pediatric HGG.

Group sequential adaptive designs in series of time-to-event randomised trials in rare diseases: A simulation study.

In rare diseases, fully powered large trials may not be doable in a reasonable time frame even with international collaborations. In a previous work, we proposed an approach based on a series of smaller parallel group two-arm randomised controlled trials (RCT) performed over a long research horizon. Within the series of trials, the treatment selected after each trial becomes the control treatment of the next one. We concluded that running more trials with smaller sample sizes and relaxed α-levels leads in the long term and under reasonable assumptions to larger survival benefits with a moderate increase of risk as compared to traditional designs based on larger but fewer trials designed to meet stringent evidence criteria. We now extend this quantitative framework with more 'flexible' designs including interim analyses for futility and/or efficacy, and three-arm adaptive designs with treatment selection at interim. In the simulation study, we considered different disease severities, accrual rates, and hypotheses of how treatments improve over time. For each design, we estimated the long-term survival benefit as the relative difference in hazard rates between the end and the start of the research horizon, and the risk defined as the probability of selecting at the end of the research horizon a treatment inferior to the initial control. We assessed the impact of the α-level and the choice of the stopping rule on the operating characteristics. We also compared the performance of series based on two- vs. three-arm trials. We show that relaxing α-levels within the limit of 0.1 is associated with larger survival gains and moderate increase of risk which remains within acceptable ranges. Including an interim analysis with a futility rule is associated with an additional survival gain and a better risk control as compared to series with no interim analysis, when the α-level is below or equal to 0.1, whereas the benefit of including an interim analysis is rather small for higher α-levels. Including an interim analysis for efficacy yields almost no additional gain. Series based on three-arm trials are associated with a systematic improvement in terms of survival gain and risk control as compared to series of two-arm trials.

Overall Survival in Men With Bone Metastases From Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Treated With Bone-Targeting Radioisotopes: A Meta-analysis of Individual Patient Data From Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Both α-emitting and ß-emitting bone-targeted radioisotopes (RIs) have been developed to treat men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Only 1 phase 3 randomized clinical trial has demonstrated an overall survival (OS) benefit from an α-emitting RI, radium 223 (223Ra), vs standard of care. Yet no head-to-head comparison has been done between α-emitting and ß-emitting RIs. Objective: To assess OS in men with bone metastases from CRPC treated with bone-targeted RIs and to compare the effects of α-emitting RIs with ß-emitting RIs. Data Sources: PubMed, Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov, and meeting proceedings between January 1993 and June 2013 were reviewed. Key terms included randomized trials, radioisotopes, radiopharmaceuticals, and prostate cancer. Data were collected, checked, and analyzed from February 2017 to October 2018. Study Selection: Selected trials included patients with prostate cancer, recruited more than 50 patients from January 1993 to June 2013, compared RI use with no RI use (placebo, external radiotherapy, or chemotherapy), and were randomized. Patients were diagnosed with histologically proven prostate cancer and disease progression after both surgical or chemical castration and have evidence of bone metastasis. Nine randomized clinical trials were identified as eligible, but 3 were excluded for insufficient data. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual patient data were requested for each eligible trial, and all data were checked with a standard procedure. The log-rank test stratified by trial was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), and a similar fixed-effects (FE) model was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs). The between-trial heterogeneity of treatment effects was evaluated by Cochran test and I2 and was accounted by a random-effects (RE) model. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall survival; secondary outcomes were symptomatic skeletal event (SSE)-free survival and adverse events. Results: Based on 6 randomized clinical trials including 2081 patients, RI use was significantly associated with OS compared with no RI use (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.95; P = .004) with high heterogeneity (χ25 = 24.46; P < .001; I2 = 80%), but this association disappeared when using an RE model (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.61-1.06; P = .12; τ2 = 0.08). The heterogeneity is explained both by the type of RI and by the inclusion of 2 outlier trials that included 275 patients; the OS benefit was significantly higher with the α-emitting RI 223Ra (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.58-0.83) but not significant with the ß-emitting RI strontium-89 (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.84-1.10) (P for interaction = .004). Excluding the outlier trials led to an overall HR of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.73-0.92; P < .001) (between-trial heterogeneity: χ23 = 6.51; P = .09; I2 = 54%) using an FE model and an HR of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.65-0.99; P = .04; τ2 = 0.02) using an RE model. The HR for SSE-free survival was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.69-0.93; P = .004) (between-trial heterogeneity: χ23 = 6.71; P = .08; I2 = 55%) when using an FE model and was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.58-1.01; P = .06; τ2 = 0.04) when using an RE model. There were more hematological toxic effects with RI use compared with no RI use (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.17-1.88; P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In metastatic CRPC, a significant improvement of OS and SSE-free survival was obtained with bone-targeted α-emitting but not ß-emitting RIs. Caution is necessary for generalizability of these results, given the between-trial heterogeneity.

Phase II study of temozolomide and topotecan (TOTEM) in children with relapsed or refractory extracranial and central nervous system tumors including medulloblastoma with post hoc Bayesian analysis: A European ITCC study.

AIM: To assess objective response after two cycles of temozolomide and topotecan (TOTEM) in children with refractory or relapsed miscellaneous extracranial solid and central nervous system (CNS) tumors, including medulloblastoma and primitive neuroectodermal tumors (PNET). PROCEDURE: Multicenter, nonrandomized, phase 2 basket trial including children with solid tumors, completed by a one-stage design confirmatory cohort for medulloblastoma, and an exploratory cohort for PNET. Main eligibility criteria were refractory/relapsed measurable disease and no more than two prior treatment lines. Temozolomide was administered orally at 150 mg/m2 /day followed by topotecan at 0.75 mg/m2 /day intravenously for five consecutive days every 28 days. Tumor response was assessed every two cycles according to WHO criteria and reviewed independently. RESULTS: Thirty-two patients were enrolled and treated in the miscellaneous solid tumor and 33 in the CNS strata; 20 patients with medulloblastoma and six with PNET were included in the expansion cohorts. The median age at inclusion was 10.0 years (range, 0.9-20.9). In the basket cohorts, confirmed complete and partial responses were observed in one glioma, four medulloblastoma, and one PNET, leading to the extension. The overall objective response rate (ORR) in medulloblastoma was 28% (95% CI, 12.7-47.2) with 1/29 complete and 7/29 partial responses, those for PNET 10% (95% CI, 0.3-44.5). Post hoc Bayesian analysis estimates that the true ORR in medulloblastoma is probably between 20% and 30% and below 20% in PNET. The most common treatment-related toxicities of the combination therapy were hematologic. CONCLUSIONS: Temozolomide-topotecan results in significant ORR in children with recurrent and refractory medulloblastoma with a favorable toxicity profile.