The Contribution of Ageing to Hospitalisation Days in Hong Kong: A Decomposition Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ageing has become a serious challenge in Hong Kong and globally. It has serious implications for health expenditure, which accounts for nearly 20% of overall government expenditure. Here we assess the contribution of ageing and related factors to hospitalisation days in Hong Kong. We used hospital discharge data from all publicly funded hospitals in Hong Kong between 2001 and 2012. METHODS: A decomposition method was used to examine the factors that account for the change of total hospitalisation days during the two periods, 2001-2004 and 2004-2012. The five factors include two demographic factors - population size and age-gender composition - and three service components - hospital discharge rate, number of discharge episodes per patient, and average length of stay (LOS) - which are all measured at age-gender group level. In order to assess the health cost burden in the future, we also project the total hospitalisation days up to 2041, for a range of scenarios. RESULTS: During the decreasing period of hospitalisation days (2001-2004), the reduction of LOS contributed to about 60% of the reduction. For the period of increase (2004-2012), ageing is associated with an increase in total hospitalisation days of 1.03 million, followed by an increase in hospital discharge rates (0.67 million), an increase in the number of discharge episodes per patient (0.62 million), and population growth (0.43 million). The reduction of LOS has greatly offset these increases (-2.19 million days), and has become one of the most significant factors in containing the increasing number of hospitalisation days. Projected increases in total hospitalisation days under different scenarios have highlighted that the contribution of ageing will become even more prominent after 2022. CONCLUSION: Hong Kong is facing increasing healthcare burden caused by the rapid increase in demand for inpatient services due to ageing. Better management of inpatient services with the aim of increasing efficiency and reducing LOS, avoidable hospitalisation and readmission, without compromising patient satisfaction and quality of service, are crucial for containing the rapid and enormous increases in total hospitalisation days for Hong Kong. The results would be relevant to many rapidly ageing societies in this region.

The diffusion of a new method of suicide: charcoal-burning suicide in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

PURPOSE: In the late 1990s, an epidemic rise in suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning from burning barbecue charcoal began in Hong Kong and Taiwan. This study investigates the diffusion of this new method of suicide. METHOD: Official mortality data for 1998-2010 in Taiwan and 1998-2009 in Hong Kong were collected; overall and method-specific suicide rates in different socio-demographic subgroups over the study period were compared. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the socio-demographic risk factors for charcoal-burning vs. non-charcoal-burning suicide. RESULTS: In Hong Kong, the incidence of charcoal-burning suicide increased steeply within 1 year of the first reported cases, but its use has declined from 24.2% of all suicides during the peak period (2002-2004) to 17.1% (2007-2009); in Taiwan, the pace of diffusion was slower in onset, but it remains a popular method accounting for 31.0% of all suicides in 2008-2010. The early adopters in both places tended to be young- and middle-aged men. As the epidemic progressed, the method has also been gradually adopted by older age groups and women, particularly in Taiwan, but in 2009/10, the method still accounted for <8% of suicides in those aged >60 years in both areas. CONCLUSIONS: Common features of the epidemic in both places were the greater levels of early uptake by the young- and middle-aged males. The different course of the charcoal-burning suicide epidemic may reflect social, geographic and media reporting differences. Surveillance to identify the emergence of new suicide methods is crucial in suicide prevention.