Oral Health-Related Quality of Life in Rare Disorders of Congenital Facial Weakness.

Congenital facial weakness (CFW) encompasses a heterogenous set of rare disorders presenting with decreased facial movement from birth, secondary to impaired function of the facial musculature. The aim of the present study is to provide an analysis of subject-reported oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) in congenital facial weakness (CFW) disorders. Forty-four subjects with CFW and age- and sex- matched controls were enrolled in an Institutional Review Board (IRB)-approved study. Demographic data, medical and surgical history, comprehensive oral examination, and the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14) were obtained. Compared to unaffected controls, subjects with CFW had higher OHIP-14 scores overall (mean ± SD: 13.11 ± 8.11 vs. 4.46 ± 4.98, p < 0.0001) and within five of seven oral health domains, indicating decreased OHRQoL. Although subjects with Moebius syndrome (MBS) were noted to have higher OHIP-14 scores than those with Hereditary Congenital Facial Paresis (HCFP), there was no significant correlation in OHIP-14 score to age, sex, or specific diagnosis. An increase in OHIP-14 scores in subjects was detected in those who had undergone reanimation surgery. In conclusion, subjects with CFW had poorer OHRQoL compared to controls, and subjects with MBS had poorer OHRQoL than subjects with HCFP. This study provides better understanding of oral health care needs and quality of life in a CFW cohort and suggests that guidelines for dental treatment are required.

Essential and Toxic Elements in Infant Cereal in Brazil: Exposure Risk Assessment.

Infant cereals, one of the first solid foods introduced to infants, have been reported to pose risks to human health because they contain toxic elements and an excess of essential elements. The objective of this study was to assess the cancer and non-cancer risk of exposure to essential and toxic elements in infant cereal in Brazil. In our analyses, we included data from 18 samples of infant cereals made from different raw materials and estimated the incremental lifetime cancer risks and non-cancer hazard quotients (HQs) for their consumption. Rice cereal is particularly concerning because it is immensely popular and usually contains high levels of inorganic arsenic. In addition to arsenic, we assessed aluminum, boron, barium, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, manganese, nickel, selenium, silver, strontium, and zinc. The cancer risk was highest for rice cereal, which was also found to have an HQ > 1 for most of the tested elements. Inorganic As was the element associated with the highest cancer risk in infant cereal. All of the infant cereals included in this research contained at least one element with an HQ > 1. The essential and non-essential elements that presented HQ > 1 more frequently were zinc and cadmium, respectively. The cancer and non-cancer risks could potentially be decreased by reducing the amount of toxic and essential elements (when in excess), and public policies could have a positive influence on risk management in this complex scenario.

The National Institutes of Health Lasker Clinical Research Scholars Program: A Decade of Launching Clinician-Scientist Careers.

PURPOSE: In response to the decades-long decrease in U.S. clinician-scientists, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Albert and Mary Lasker Foundation launched the Lasker Clinical Research Scholars Program in academic year 2011 to 2012. The investigators examined the early outcomes of this program. METHOD: Thirty-nine scholars have matriculated into the program as of May 2023. Productivity was assessed for all scholars who joined the program before October 2020 (n = 31). Extramural early-stage investigators (ESIs) were used as a control group, and coarsened exact matching was used to compare the groups. The scholars were compared with the matched ESIs on 4 productivity metrics: publication count, weighted relative citation ratio, clinical impact, and approximate potential to translate. Publication records for both groups were compiled using the NIH Office of Portfolio Analysis' name disambiguation method and manually curated to ensure integrity of the data set. RESULTS: Of the 39 scholars, 29 were compared with 121 matched extramural ESIs. Five years before matriculation, the 2 groups had comparable numbers of publications, but scholars had a higher median weighted relative citation ratio, clinical impact, and approximate potential to translate score. Five years after matriculation, the scholars had a higher median number of publications than the ESIs, and the gap between scholars and ESIs, with scholars having higher scores, had widened for all metrics except approximate potential to translate scores. Of 10 of the 39 scholars at or approaching tenure eligibility, 6 have attained tenure (3 at NIH and 3 in academic institutions), and 4 are on track to attain tenure at NIH. CONCLUSIONS: All the Lasker clinical research scholars are substantially involved in clinical and translational research. Their productivity matches or exceeds that of a matched cohort of ESIs at U.S. academic institutions.

Three-Dimensional Cephalometric Landmark Annotation Demonstration on Human Cone Beam Computed Tomography Scans.

Craniofacial cephalometric analysis is a diagnostic tool used for the assessment of the relationship of various bones and soft tissues in the head and face. Cephalometric analysis has been traditionally conducted with the use of 2D radiographs and landmark sets and restricted to size, linear and angular measurements, and 2D relationships. The increasing use of 3D cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans in the dental field dictates the need for the evolution to 3D cephalometric analysis, which incorporates shape and a more realistic analysis of longitudinal development in all three planes. This study is a demonstration of 3D cephalometric analysis with the use of a validated set of skeletal tissue landmarks on human CBCT scans. Detailed instructions for the annotation of each landmark on a 3D volume are provided as part of a step-by-step protocol. The generated measurements and 3D coordinates of the landmarks can be exported and used both for clinical and research purposes. The introduction of 3D cephalometric analysis in basic and clinical craniofacial studies will lead to future advancements in the field of craniofacial growth and development.

Relational reasoning network for anatomical landmarking.

Purpose: We perform anatomical landmarking for craniomaxillofacial (CMF) bones without explicitly segmenting them. Toward this, we propose a simple, yet efficient, deep network architecture, called relational reasoning network (RRN), to accurately learn the local and the global relations among the landmarks in CMF bones; specifically, mandible, maxilla, and nasal bones. Approach: The proposed RRN works in an end-to-end manner, utilizing learned relations of the landmarks based on dense-block units. For a given few landmarks as input, RRN treats the landmarking process similar to a data imputation problem where predicted landmarks are considered missing. Results: We applied RRN to cone-beam computed tomography scans obtained from 250 patients. With a fourfold cross-validation technique, we obtained an average root mean squared error of < 2 mm per landmark. Our proposed RRN has revealed unique relationships among the landmarks that help us in inferring informativeness of the landmark points. The proposed system identifies the missing landmark locations accurately even when severe pathology or deformations are present in the bones. Conclusions: Accurately identifying anatomical landmarks is a crucial step in deformation analysis and surgical planning for CMF surgeries. Achieving this goal without the need for explicit bone segmentation addresses a major limitation of segmentation-based approaches, where segmentation failure (as often is the case in bones with severe pathology or deformation) could easily lead to incorrect landmarking. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first-of-its-kind algorithm finding anatomical relations of the objects using deep learning.

Leaf decomposition and flammability are largely decoupled across species in a tropical swamp forest despite sharing some predictive leaf functional traits.

Decomposition and fire are major carbon pathways in many ecosystems, yet potential linkages between these processes are poorly understood. We test whether variability in decomposability and flammability across species are related to each other and to key plant functional traits in tropical swamp forests, where habitat degradation is elevating decomposition and fire regimes. Using senesced and fresh leaves of 22 swamp tree species in Singapore, we conducted an in situ decomposition experiment and a laboratory flammability experiment. We analysed 16 leaf physical and biochemical traits as predictors of decomposability and components of flammability: combustibility, ignitability and sustainability. Decomposability and flammability were largely decoupled across species, despite some shared predictive traits such as specific leaf area (SLA). Physical traits predicted that thicker leaves with a smaller SLA and volume decomposed faster, while various cation concentrations predicted flammability components, particularly ignitability. We show that flammability and decomposability of swamp forest leaves are decoupled because flammability is mostly driven by biochemical traits, while decomposition is driven by physical traits. Our approach identifies species that are slow to decompose and burn (e.g. Calophyllum tetrapterum and Xanthophyllum flavescens), which could be planted to mitigate carbon losses in tropical swamp reforestation.

Disruptive Therapy Using a Nonsurgical Orthodontic Airway Plate for the Management of Neonatal Robin Sequence: 1-Year Follow-up.

We recently published the 3-month follow-up of 2 neonates with Robin sequence whose mandibular hypoplasia and restricted airway were successfully treated with an orthodontic airway plate (OAP) without surgical intervention. Both infants were successfully weaned off the OAP after several months of continuous use. We present the course of OAP treatment in these patients with a focus on breathing, feeding, and facial growth during their first year of life. Both infants demonstrated stable mandibular projection, resolution of obstructive sleep apnea, and normal development.

Exposure to Inorganic Arsenic in Rice in Brazil: A Human Health Risk Assessment.

In certain populations, rice is the main source of exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs), which is associated with cancer and non-cancer effects. Although rice is a staple food in Brazil, there have been few studies about the health risks for the Brazilian population. The objective of this study was to assess the risks of exposure to iAs from white rice and brown rice in Brazil, in terms of the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects, and to propose measures to mitigate those risks. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) and hazard quotient (HQ) were calculated in a probabilistic framework. The mean ILCR was 1.5 × 10-4 for white rice and 6.0 × 10-6 for brown rice. The HQ for white and brown rice was under 1. The ILCR for white and brown rice was high, even though the iAs concentration in rice is below the maximum contaminant level. The risk for brown rice consumption was lower, which was not expected. Various mitigation measures discussed in this report are estimated to reduce the risk from rice consumption by 5-67%. With the support of public policies, measures to reduce these risks for the Brazilian population would have a positive impact on public health.

Determinants of gene expression in the human liver: Impact of aging and sex on xenobiotic metabolism.

There is a need to characterize the potential susceptibility of older adults to toxicity from environmental chemical exposures. Liver xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes (XMEs) play important roles in detoxifying and eliminating xenobiotics. We examined global gene expression in the livers of young (21-45 years) and old (69+ years) men and women. Differentially expressed genes (DEG) were identified using two-way ANOVA (p ≤ 0.05). We identified 1437 and 1670 DEGs between young and old groups in men and women, respectively. Only a minor number of the total number of genes overlapped (146 genes). Aging increased or decreased pathways involved in inflammation and intermediary metabolism, respectively. Aging led to numerous changes in the expression of XME genes or genes known to control their expression (~90 genes). Out of 10 cytochrome P450s activities examined, there were increased activities of CYP1A2 and CYP2C9 enzymes in the old groups. We also identified sex-dependent genes that were more numerous in the young group (1065) than in the old group (202) and included changes in XMEs. These studies indicate that the livers from aging humans when compared to younger adults exhibit changes in XMEs that may lead to differences in the metabolism of xenobiotics.

Assessing author willingness to enter study information into structured data templates as part of the manuscript submission process: A pilot study.

Background: Environmental health and other researchers can benefit from automated or semi-automated summaries of data within published studies as summarizing study methods and results is time and resource intensive. Automated summaries can be designed to identify and extract details of interest pertaining to the study design, population, testing agent/intervention, or outcome (etc.). Much of the data reported across existing publications lack unified structure, standardization and machine-readable formats or may be presented in complex tables which serve as barriers that impede the development of automated data extraction methodologies.As full automation of data extraction seems unlikely soon, encouraging investigators to submit structured summaries of methods and results in standardized formats with meta-data tagging of content may be of value during the publication process. This would produce machine-readable content to facilitate automated data extraction, establish sharable data repositories, help make research data FAIR, and could improve reporting quality. Objectives: A pilot study was conducted to assess the feasibility of asking participants to summarize study methods and results using a structured, web-based data extraction model as a potential workflow that could be implemented during the manuscript submission process. Methods: Eight participants entered study details and data into the Health Assessment Workplace Collaborative (HAWC). Participants were surveyed after the extraction exercise to ascertain 1) whether this extraction exercise will impact their conducting and reporting of future research, 2) the ease of data extraction, including which fields were easiest and relatively more problematic to extract and 3) the amount of time taken to perform data extractions and other related tasks. Investigators then presented participants the potential benefits of providing structured data in the format they were extracting. After this, participants were surveyed about 1) their willingness to provide structured data during the publication process and 2) whether they felt the potential application of structured data entry approaches and their implementation during the journal submission process should continue to be further explored. Conclusions: Routine provision of structured data that summarizes key information from research studies could reduce the amount of effort required for reusing that data in the future, such as in systematic reviews or agency scientific assessments. Our pilot study suggests that directly asking authors to provide that data, via structured templates, may be a viable approach to achieving this: participants were willing to do so, and the overall process was not prohibitively arduous. We also found some support for the hypothesis that use of study templates may have halo benefits in improving the conduct and completeness of reporting of future research. While limitations in the generalizability of our findings mean that the conditions of success of templates cannot be assumed, further research into how such templates might be designed and implemented does seem to have enough chance of success that it ought to be undertaken.

Loeys-Dietz and Shprintzen-Goldberg syndromes: analysis of TGF-ß-opathies with craniofacial manifestations using an innovative multimodality method.

BACKGROUND: Elevated transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-ß) signalling has been implicated in the pathogenesis of Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) and Shprintzen-Goldberg syndrome (SGS). In this study, we provide a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the craniofacial and functional features among the LDS subtypes and SGS. METHODS: We explore the variability within and across a cohort of 44 patients through deep clinical phenotyping, three-dimensional (3D) facial photo surface analysis, cephalometric and geometric morphometric analyses of cone-beam CT scans. RESULTS: The most common craniofacial features detected in this cohort include mandibular retrognathism (84%), flat midface projection (84%), abnormal eye shape (73%), low-set ears (73%), abnormal nose (66%) and lip shape (64%), hypertelorism (41%) and a relatively high prevalence of nystagmus/strabismus (43%), temporomandibular joint disorders (38%) and obstructive sleep apnoea (23%). 3D cephalometric analysis demonstrated an increased cranial base angle with shortened anterior cranial base and underdevelopment of the maxilla and mandible, with evidence of a reduced pharyngeal airway in 55% of those analysed. Geometric morphometric analysis confirmed that the greatest craniofacial shape variation was among patients with LDS type 2, with distinct clustering of patients with SGS. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive phenotypic approach identifies developmental abnormalities that segregate to mutation variants along the TGF-ß signalling pathway, with a particularly severe phenotype associated with TGFBR2 and SKI mutations. Multimodality assessment of craniofacial anomalies objectively reveals the impact of mutations of the TGF-ß pathway with perturbations associated with the cranium and cranial base with severe downstream effects on the orbit, maxilla and mandible with the resultant clinical phenotypes.

TUBB3 Arg262His causes a recognizable syndrome including CFEOM3, facial palsy, joint contractures, and early-onset peripheral neuropathy.

Microtubules are formed from heterodimers of alpha- and beta-tubulin, each of which has multiple isoforms encoded by separate genes. Pathogenic missense variants in multiple different tubulin isoforms cause brain malformations. Missense mutations in TUBB3, which encodes the neuron-specific beta-tubulin isotype, can cause congenital fibrosis of the extraocular muscles type 3 (CFEOM3) and/or malformations of cortical development, with distinct genotype-phenotype correlations. Here, we report fourteen individuals from thirteen unrelated families, each of whom harbors the identical NM_006086.4 (TUBB3):c.785G>A (p.Arg262His) variant resulting in a phenotype we refer to as the TUBB3 R262H syndrome. The affected individuals present at birth with ptosis, ophthalmoplegia, exotropia, facial weakness, facial dysmorphisms, and, in most cases, distal congenital joint contractures, and subsequently develop intellectual disabilities, gait disorders with proximal joint contractures, Kallmann syndrome (hypogonadotropic hypogonadism and anosmia), and a progressive peripheral neuropathy during the first decade of life. Subsets may also have vocal cord paralysis, auditory dysfunction, cyclic vomiting, and/or tachycardia at rest. All fourteen subjects share a recognizable set of brain malformations, including hypoplasia of the corpus callosum and anterior commissure, basal ganglia malformations, absent olfactory bulbs and sulci, and subtle cerebellar malformations. While similar, individuals with the TUBB3 R262H syndrome can be distinguished from individuals with the TUBB3 E410K syndrome by the presence of congenital and acquired joint contractures, an earlier onset peripheral neuropathy, impaired gait, and basal ganglia malformations.

Quantitative Craniofacial Analysis and Generation of Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells for Muenke Syndrome: A Case Report.

In this case report, we focus on Muenke syndrome (MS), a disease caused by the p.Pro250Arg variant in fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) and characterized by uni- or bilateral coronal suture synostosis, macrocephaly without craniosynostosis, dysmorphic craniofacial features, and dental malocclusion. The clinical findings of MS are further complicated by variable expression of phenotypic traits and incomplete penetrance. As such, unraveling the mechanisms behind MS will require a comprehensive and systematic way of phenotyping patients to precisely identify the impact of the mutation variant on craniofacial development. To establish this framework, we quantitatively delineated the craniofacial phenotype of an individual with MS and compared this to his unaffected parents using three-dimensional cephalometric analysis of cone beam computed tomography scans and geometric morphometric analysis, in addition to an extensive clinical evaluation. Secondly, given the utility of human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) as a patient-specific investigative tool, we also generated the first hiPSCs derived from a family trio, the proband and his unaffected parents as controls, with detailed characterization of all cell lines. This report provides a starting point for evaluating the mechanistic underpinning of the craniofacial development in MS with the goal of linking specific clinical manifestations to molecular insights gained from hiPSC-based disease modeling.

Health Effects of Naphthalene Exposure: A Systematic Evidence Map and Analysis of Potential Considerations for Dose-Response Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Naphthalene is a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon that has been associated with health effects, including cancer. As the state of the science on naphthalene toxicity continues to evolve, updated toxicity reference value(s) may be required to support human health risk assessment. OBJECTIVES: We present a systematic evidence map of studies that could be used to derive toxicity reference value(s) for naphthalene. METHODS: Human and animal health effect studies and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models were identified from a literature search based on populations, exposures, comparators, and outcomes (PECO) criteria. Human and animal studies meeting PECO criteria were refined to a smaller subset considered most informative for deriving chronic reference value(s), which are preferred for assessing risk to the general public. This subset was evaluated for risk of bias and sensitivity, and the suitability of each study for dose-response analysis was qualitatively assessed. Lowest observed adverse effect levels (LOAELs) were extracted and summarized. Other potentially relevant studies (e.g., mechanistic and toxicokinetic studies) were tracked as supplemental information but not evaluated further. Existing reference values for naphthalene are also summarized. RESULTS: We identified 26 epidemiology studies and 16 animal studies that were considered most informative for further analysis. Eleven PBPK models were identified. The available epidemiology studies generally had significant risk of bias and/or sensitivity concerns and were mostly found to have low suitability for dose-response analysis due to the nature of the exposure measurements. The animal studies had fewer risk of bias and sensitivity concerns and were mostly found to be suitable for dose-response analysis. CONCLUSION: Although both epidemiological and animal studies of naphthalene provide weight of evidence for hazard identification, the available animal studies appear more suitable for reference value derivation. PBPK models and mechanistic and toxicokinetic data can be applied to extrapolate these animal data to humans, considering mode of action and interspecies metabolic differences. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7381.

Sexual dimorphisms in three-dimensional masticatory muscle attachment morphometry regulates temporomandibular joint mechanics.

Temporomandibular joint (TMJ) disorders disproportionally affect females, with female to male prevalence varying from 3:1 to 8:1. Sexual dimorphisms in masticatory muscle attachment morphometry and association with craniofacial size, critical for understanding sex-differences in TMJ function, have not been reported. The objective of this study was to determine sex-specific differences in three-dimensional (3D) TMJ muscle attachment morphometry and craniofacial sizes and their impact on TMJ mechanics. Human cadaveric TMJ muscle attachment morphometry and craniofacial anthropometry (10Males; 11Females) were determined by previously developed 3D digitization and imaging-based methods. Sex-differences in muscle attachment morphometry and craniofacial anthropometry, and their correlation were determined, respectively using multivariate general linear and linear regression statistical models. Subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the mandible were developed to determine effects of sexual dimorphisms in mandibular size and TMJ muscle attachment morphometry on joint loading during static biting. There were significant sex-differences in craniofacial size (p = 0.024) and TMJ muscle attachment morphometry (p < 0.001). TMJ muscle attachment morphometry was significantly correlated with craniofacial size. TMJ contact forces estimated from biomechanical models were significantly, 23% on average (p < 0.001), greater for females compared to those for males when generating the same bite forces. There were significant linear correlations between TMJ contact force and both 3D mandibular length (R2 = 0.48, p < 0.001) and muscle force moment arm ratio (R2 = 0.68, p < 0.001). Sexual dimorphisms in masticatory muscle morphology and craniofacial sizes play critical roles in subject-specific TMJ biomechanics. Sex-specific differences in the TMJ mechanical environment should be further investigated concerning mechanical fatigue of TMJ discs associated with TMJ disorders.

Malocclusion Classification on 3D Cone-Beam CT Craniofacial Images Using Multi-Channel Deep Learning Models.

Analyzing and interpreting cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images is a complicated and often time-consuming process. In this study, we present two different architectures of multi-channel deep learning (DL) models: "Ensemble" and "Synchronized multi-channel", to automatically identify and classify skeletal malocclusions from 3D CBCT craniofacial images. These multi-channel models combine three individual single-channel base models using a voting scheme and a two-step learning process, respectively, to simultaneously extract and learn a visual representation from three different directional views of 2D images generated from a single 3D CBCT image. We also employ a visualization method called "Class-selective Relevance Mapping" (CRM) to explain the learned behavior of our DL models by localizing and highlighting a discriminative area within an input image. Our multi-channel models achieve significantly better performance overall (accuracy exceeding 93%), compared to single-channel DL models that only take one specific directional view of 2D projected image as an input. In addition, CRM visually demonstrates that a DL model based on the sagittal-left view of 2D images outperforms those based on other directional 2D images.Clinical Relevance- the proposed method aims at assisting orthodontist to determine the best treatment path for the patient be it orthodontic or surgical treatment or a combination of both.

Use of study-specific MOE-like estimates to prioritize health effects from chemical exposure for analysis in human health assessments.

There are unique challenges in estimating dose-response with chemicals that are associated with multiple health outcomes and numerous studies. Some studies are more suitable than others for quantitative dose-response analyses. For such chemicals, an efficient method of screening studies and endpoints to identify suitable studies and potentially important health effects for dose-response modeling is valuable. Using inorganic arsenic as a test case, we developed a tiered approach that involves estimating study-specific margin of exposure (MOE)-like unitless ratios for two hypothetical scenarios. These study-specific unitless ratios are derived by dividing the exposure estimated to result in a 20% increase in relative risk over the background exposure (RRE20) by the background exposure, as estimated in two different ways. In our case study illustration, separate study-specific ratios are derived using estimates of United States population background exposure (RRB-US) and the mean study population reference group background exposure (RRB-SP). Systematic review methods were used to identify and evaluate epidemiologic studies, which were categorized based on study design (case-control, cohort, cross-sectional), various study quality criteria specific to dose-response analysis (number of dose groups, exposure ascertainment, exposure uncertainty), and availability of necessary dose-response data. Both case-control and cohort studies were included in the RRB analysis. The RRE20 estimates were derived by modeling effective counts of cases and controls estimated from study-reported adjusted odds ratios and relative risks. Using a broad (but not necessarily comprehensive) set of epidemiologic studies of multiple health outcomes selected for the purposes of illustrating the RRB approach, this test case analysis would suggest that diseases of the circulatory system, bladder cancer, and lung cancer may be arsenic health outcomes that warrant further analysis. This is suggested by the number of datasets from adequate dose-response studies demonstrating an effect with RRBs close to 1 (i.e., RRE20 values close to estimated background arsenic exposure levels).

Bayesian hierarchical dose-response meta-analysis of epidemiological studies: Modeling and target population prediction methods.

When assessing the human risks due to exposure to environmental chemicals, traditional dose-response analyses are not straightforward when there are numerous high-quality epidemiological studies of priority cancer and non-cancer health outcomes. Given this wealth of information, selecting a single "best" study on which to base dose-response analyses is difficult and would potentially ignore much of the available data. Therefore, systematic approaches are necessary for the analysis of these rich databases. Examples are meta-analysis (and further, meta-regression), which are well established methods that consider and incorporate information from multiple studies into the estimation of risks due to exposure to environmental contaminants. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical, Bayesian meta-analysis approach for the dose-response analysis of multiple epidemiological studies. This paper is the second of two papers detailing this approach; the first covered "pre-analysis" steps necessary to prepare the data for dose-response modeling. This paper focuses on the hierarchical Bayesian approach to dose-response modeling and extrapolation of risk to populations of interest using the association between bladder cancer and oral inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure as an illustrative case study. In particular, this paper addresses the modeling of both case-control and cohort studies with a flexible, logistic model in a hierarchical Bayesian framework that estimates study-specific slopes, as well as a pooled slope across all studies. This approach is akin to a random effects model in which no assumption is made a priori that there is a single, common slope for all included studies. Further, this paper also details extrapolation of the estimates of logistic slope to extra risk in a target population using a lifetable analysis and basic assumptions about background iAs exposure levels. In this case, the target population was the general United States population and information on all-cause mortality and incidence and mortality from bladder cancer was used to perform the lifetable analysis. The methods herein were developed for general use in investigating the association between any pollutant and observed health-effects in epidemiological studies. In order to demonstrate these methods, inorganic arsenic was chosen as a case study given the large epidemiological database that exists for this contaminant.

Utility of Optical Coherence Tomography in the Diagnosis and Management of Optic Neuropathy in Patients with Fibrous Dysplasia.

Optic neuropathy (ON) is a highly disabling complication of fibrous dysplasia (FD). The optimal test for identifying and monitoring ON in FD is unknown. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is an imaging modality that detects retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thinning, a sign of optic nerve atrophy. The purpose of this study was to (i) assess the ability of OCT RNFL thickness measurements to identify ON in FD; (ii) compare the performance of RNFL thickness to computed tomography measurements; and (iii) examine changes in RNFL thickness over time to assess disease progression. A retrospective cohort study was performed to assess subjects (n = 70) who underwent neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including OCT. The diagnostic utility of RNFL thickness was determined using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and the accuracy was compared with computed tomography measurements. The relationship between RNFL thickness and age was assessed cross-sectionally, using generalized estimating equation methodology, and longitudinally, using a generalized mixed model. Eleven subjects were identified with ON. RNFL thickness identified ON (area under curve = 0.997, p < 0.0001) with sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 95%, respectively, when using the diagnostic criterion of ≤71 µm. RNFL thickness outperformed computed tomography measurements of optic canal narrowing and optic nerve stretch. Subjects with ON exhibited a greater decrease in RNFL thickness with each year of age (-0.70 µm/year, p < 0.001) than subjects with normal vision (-0.16 µm/year, p < 0.05). When assessed longitudinally, subjects with normal vision demonstrated an increase in RNFL thickness until approximately age 20 years that decreased thereafter. In contrast, subjects with ON exhibited an earlier decrease in RNFL thickness during adolescence. In conclusion, RNFL thickness of ≤71 µm accurately identified ON in this population. By establishing the difference in rate of RNFL thinning in patients with and without ON, clinicians may distinguish between patients at risk for ON and intervene before irreversible damage. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Model averaging methods for the evaluation of dose-response model uncertainty when assessing the suitability of studies for estimating risk.

This paper describes the use of multiple models and model averaging for considering dose-response uncertainties when extrapolating low-dose risk from studies of populations with high levels of exposure. The model averaging approach we applied builds upon innovative methods developed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), principally through the relaxing of model constraints. The relaxing of model constraints allowed us to evaluate model uncertainty using a broader set of model forms and, within the context of model averaging, did not result in the extreme supralinearity that is the primary concern associated with the application of individual unconstrained models. A study of the relationship between inorganic arsenic exposure to a Taiwanese population and potential carcinogenic effects is used to illustrate the approach. We adjusted the reported number of cases from two published prospective cohort studies of bladder and lung cancer in a Taiwanese population to account for potential covariates and less-than-lifetime exposure (for estimating effects on lifetime cancer incidence), used bootstrap methods to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the µg/kg-day inorganic arsenic dose from drinking water and dietary intakes, and fit multiple models weighted by Bayesian Information Criterion to the adjusted incidence and dose data to generate dose-specific mean, 2.5th and 97.5th percentile risk estimates. Widely divergent results from adequate model fits for a broad set of constrained and unconstrained models applied individually and in a model averaging framework suggest that substantial model uncertainty exists in risk extrapolation from estimated doses in the Taiwanese studies to lower doses more relevant to countries like the U.S. that have proportionally lower arsenic intake levels.