Potential range shift of a long-distance migratory rice pest, Nilaparvata lugens, under climate change.

The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges.

Crystallization-based upcycling of iron oxyhydroxide for efficient arsenic capture in contaminated soils.

Arsenic (As)-contaminated soil inevitably exists in nature and has become a global challenge for a sustainable future. Current processes for As capture using natural and structurally engineered nanomaterials are neither scientifically nor economically viable. Here, we established a feasible strategy to enhance As-capture efficiency and ecosystem health by structurally reorganizing iron oxyhydroxide, a natural As stabilizer. We propose crystallization to reorganize FeOOH-acetate nanoplatelets (r-FAN), which is universal for either scalable chemical synthesis or reproduction from natural iron oxyhydroxide phases. The r-FAN with wide interlayer spacing immobilizes As species through a synergistic mechanism of electrostatic intercalation and surface chemisorption. The r-FAN rehabilitates the ecological fitness of As-contaminated artificial and mine soils, as manifested by the integrated bioassay results of collembolan and plants. Our findings will serve as a cornerstone for crystallization-based material engineering for sustainable environmental applications and for understanding the interactions between soil, nanoparticles, and contaminants.

Species-specific environmental DNA analysis of the index species in soil ecosystem, Allonychiurus kimi (Collembola: Onychiuridae).

Collembola are abundant and have significant roles in the soil ecosystem. Therefore, the phenotypic endpoints of Collembola population or community have been used as an effective bioindicator for assessing soil quality. Since the identification and counting the collembolans in the soil is a laborious and costly procedure, environmental DNA (eDNA)-based biomonitoring was proposed as an analysis tool of collembolan species found in the soil. In this study, standard primer sets for the species-specific eDNA analysis using Allonychiurus kimi, a soil bioindicator species was selected. Then, the primers were tested for specificity and sensitivity from the soil samples. Two different eDNA samples were tested: (1) eDNA samples were extracted from the soil with A. kimi individuals (intra-organismal eDNA). (2) The samples from the soil without A. kimi individuals (extra-organismal eDNA). The two primers were confirmed in their sensitivity and specificity to the two types of eDNA samples selected. C t-values from both intra- and extra-organismal eDNA showed the significant correlations to the number of inoculated A. kimi (adj. R 2 = 0.7453-0.9489). These results suggest that in excretion, egg, and other exuviae had a significant effect on eDNA analysis from soil samples taken. Furthermore, our results suggest that environmental factors should be considered when analyzing eDNA collected from soil.

Site-specific ecological risk assessment of metal-contaminated soils based on the TRIAD approach.

Ecological risk assessment based on scientific data is crucial for understanding causal relationships between chemical pollution and environmental risks. Simultaneously, a balance is required between socioeconomic factors and scientific evidence. The TRIAD approach, which incorporates three lines of evidence (LoE)-chemical (Chem-LoE), ecotoxicological (Ecotox-LoE), and ecological (Eco-LoE)-was applied in five sites of an abandoned mine for site-specific soil ecological risk assessment (SERA). In combination, the three LoEs showed that two sites had extremely high risks, one site had moderate risk, and the other site had low risk. At all sites, Chem-LoE exhibited high-integrated risk values. In Ecotox-LoE and Eco-LoE, some species were not affected despite high metal concentrations in the soil samples collected from the sites, indicating that the bioavailability of metals differed according to the physiochemical properties of the soil medium. This study is significant as multiple analyses were performed considering ecosystem structure to reduce uncertainty in SERA. The results provide information to support effective decision-making risk management to protect the soil ecosystem. Moreover, these findings will be useful in establishing policies and priorities for soil risk management.

Multigeneration toxicity of Geunsami® (a glyphosate-based herbicide) to Allonychiurus kimi (Lee) (Collembola) from sub-individual to population levels.

Glyphosate-based herbicide (GBH) is the most widely used herbicide worldwide and has long been considered to have significantly low toxicity to non-target soil invertebrates based on short-term toxicity tests (<56 d). However, long-term GBH toxicity assessment is necessary as GBH is repeatedly applied in the same field annually because of the advent of glyphosate-resistant crops. In this study, a multigeneration test was conducted where Allonychiurus kimi (Collembola) was exposed to GBH for three generations (referred to as F0, F1, and F2) to evaluate the long-term toxic effect. The endpoints used were adult survival and juvenile production for the individual level toxicity assessment. Phospholipid profile and population age structure were the endpoints used for sub-individual and population levels, respectively. GBH was observed to have no negative effects on adult survivals of all generations, but juvenile production was found to decrease in a concentration-dependent manner, with EC50s being estimated as 572.5, 274.8, and 59.8 mg a.i. kg-1 in the F0, F1, and F2 generations, respectively. The age structure of A. kimi population produced in the test of all generations was altered by GBH exposure, mainly because of the decrease in the number of young juveniles. Further, differences between the phospholipid profiles of the control and GBH treatments became apparent over generations, with PA 16:0, PA 12:0, and PS 42:0 lipids not being detected at the highest concentration of 741 mg kg-1 in F2. Considering all our findings from sub-individual to population levels, repeated and long-term use of GBH could have significantly higher negative impacts on non-target soil organisms than expected.

Temperature and Aging Affect Glyphosate Toxicity and Fatty Acid Composition in Allonychiurus kimi (Lee) (Collembola).

Glyphosate is the most used herbicide worldwide, but enormous use of glyphosate has raised concerned about its environmental loadings. Although glyphosate is considered non-toxic, toxicity data for soil non-target organisms according to temperature and aging are scarce. This study examined the toxicity of glyphosate with the temperature (20 °C and 25 °C) and aging times (0 day and 7 days) in soil using a collembolan species, Allonychiurus kimi (Lee). The degradation of glyphosate was investigated. Fatty acid composition of A. kimi was also investigated. The half-life of glyphosate was 2.38 days at 20 °C and 1.69 days at 25 °C. At 20 °C with 0 day of aging, the EC50 was estimated to be 93.5 mg kg-1. However, as the temperature and aging time increased, the glyphosate degradation increased, so no significant toxicity was observed on juvenile production. The proportions of the arachidonic acid and stearic acid decreased and increased with the glyphosate treatment, respectively, even at 37.1 mg kg-1, at which no significant effects on juvenile production were observed. Our results showed that the changes in the glyphosate toxicity with temperature and aging time were mostly dependent on the soil residual concentration. Furthermore, the changes in the fatty acid compositions suggest that glyphosate could have a chronic effect on soil organisms.

The complete mitochondrial genome of Yuukianura szeptyckii Deharveng & Weiner 1984 (Collembola: Neanuridae).

The complete mitochondrial genome of Yuukianura szeptyckii Deharveng & Weiner 1984 was sequenced, assembled, and annotated. The mitochondrial genome of Y. szeptyckii has a length of 15,771 bp and contains 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), 22 transfer (tRNA) genes, and 2 ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes. Y. szeptyckii was closely clustered with the following species of Neanuridae: Bilobella aurantiaca and Friesea grisea.

Effect of bioavailable arsenic fractions on the collembolan community in an old abandoned mine waste.

Mine waste from abandoned mines poses a risk to soil ecosystems due to the dispersion of arsenic (As) in the mine waste to the nearby soil environment. Because the bioavailability of As varies depending on the As chemical fraction and exposure conditions, chemical assessment of As fractions in soil around mine waste is essential to understand their impact on soil ecosystem. Here, six sites around the mine waste were selected for investigating toxic effects of As-contaminant soil on Collembola community. To measure the As chemical fraction in soil and bioavailability, Wenzel sequential extraction employed. Meanwhile, the collembolans that live in each sampling site were identified at the species level, and the characteristics and composition of the collembola community were investigated. The mobility fraction (F1 + F2 + F3; MF) was related to the risk to the collembolan community, and the adverse impact of high MF appeared to lead to a decrease in abundance, richness, and Shannon index. According to non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis, F1, F2, F3, and pH were shown as the significant factor explaining the NMDS space. Especially, the sampling site with the highest concentration of F3 showed statistically different species composition from the other sites. In the case of As-contaminated soil around the old mine waste, the toxic effects of the remaining F3 in soil, as well as that of F1 and F2, should be fully considered. This study suggested that collembolan community could be used for understanding the impact of bioavailable As fraction in the old abandoned mine area.

The complete mitochondrial genome of Allonychiurus kimi (Lee, 1973) (Collembola: Onychiuridae).

The complete mitochondrial genome of Allonychiurus kimi (Lee, 1973) was sequenced, assembled, and annotated. The mitochondrial genome of A. kimi is 14,386 bp in length and contains 13 protein-coding, 22 transfer RNA, and 2 ribosomal RNA genes. A. kimi was closely clustered with the following species of the family Onychiuridae: Onychiurus orientalis, Orthonychiurus forlsomi, and Tetrodontophora bielanensis.

Process-based modeling to assess the nutrient removal efficiency of two endangered hydrophytes: Linking nutrient-cycle with a multiple-quotas approach.

Hydrophytes have been widely used to reduce nutrient levels in aquatic ecosystems, but only limited species with high nutrient removal efficiencies have been implemented. Thus, it is necessary to continually explore new candidate species with high nutrient removal efficiencies. To effectively explore the nutrient removal ability of hydrophytes, a new process-based model combining the multiple-quotas approach and nutrient-cycle model was developed. The multiple-quotas approach provides a theoretical framework to conceptually explain the uptake and response of autotrophs to multiple nutrients. The developed process-based model was validated using observational data from microcosm experiments with two emergent hydrophytes, Menyanthes trifoliata and Cicuta virosa. The results showed that both M. trifoliata and C. virosa effectively reduced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in both water and sediment layers, but M. trifoliata showed a higher removal efficiency for both nutrients than C. virosa, particularly for total ammonia + ammonium-nitrogen (NHx-N) and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) in the sediment layer (M. trifoliata: 0.579-0.976 for NHx-N, 0.567-0.702 for NO3-N; C. virosa: 0.212-0.501 for NHx-N, 0.466-0.560 for NO3-N). In addition, M. trifoliata achieved the maximum removal efficiency for N and P at higher nutrient exposure levels than C. virosa (M. trifoliata: exposure level of 0.725-0.775; C. virosa: exposure level of 0.550-0.575). The developed model well simulated the species-specific growth patterns of hydrophytes depending on the nutrient exposure level as well as the N and P dynamics in the water and sediment layers. The approach adopted in this study provides a useful tool for discovering candidate species to improve hydrophyte diversity and effectively remove nutrients from aquatic ecosystems.

Clinical Characteristics and Mortality Predictors of COVID-19 Patients Hospitalized at Nationally-Designated Treatment Hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in December 2019 in China, and then it has disseminated worldwide. In Korea, a religious group-related super-spreading event triggered a sudden outbreak in Daegu city and Gyeongsangbuk-do in southeast Korea. This study was undertaken to document the clinical characteristics of patients hospitalized in Gyeongsangbuk-do. METHODS: Three hundred and fifty-two patients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection hospitalized at Dongguk University Gyeongju Hospital or at the Andong Medical Center between February 18th and June 30th were enrolled in this study. Medical records were reviewed and demographic and clinical features, including comorbidities, symptoms, radiological and laboratory findings on admission were analyzed. In addition, we sought to identify risk factors of mortality. RESULTS: Mean age of the 352 study subjects was 56 years (range, 14-95). The mortality rate was 6.8% and mean age at death was 81 years (range, 57-91). The most common symptom was cough (31.8%) followed by a febrile sensation (28.4%), sputum (17.0%), sore throat (15.6%), and myalgia (13.1%). Eighty-one (23.0%) patients were asymptomatic, but a half of these patients exhibited pneumonic infiltration at presentation. Chest radiology showed no active lesion in 41.8% of the study subjects, bilateral pneumonia in 46.9%, and unilateral pneumonic infiltration in 11.4%. Among 24 patients that died, 18 subjects were transferred from a care facility. An age of ≥ 70 years, previous history of malignancy or diabetes, and fever (≥ 37.5°C) on admission were found to be significant risk factors of mortality. CONCLUSION: Patients aged ≥ 70 years, those with fever on admission, and patients with an underlying malignancy or diabetes were found to be more likely to succumb to COVID-19. Elderly in care facilities or hospitalized patients with an underlying disease should receive more attention and be considered for preventive quarantine.

Mortality Rate and Predictors of Mortality in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients with Diabetes.

Studies have confirmed COVID-19 patients with diabetes are at higher risk of mortality than their non-diabetic counterparts. However, data-driven evidence of factors associated with increased mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with diabetes is scarce in South Korea. This study was conducted to determine the mortality rate and identify risk factors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with type 2 diabetes in Gyeongsangbuk-do province, South Korea. In this hospital-based, cross-sectional study, we enrolled a total of 324 patients with confirmed COVID-19, hospitalized at two of the tertiary level healthcare facilitates of Gyeongsangbuk-do, South Korea from 18 February to 30 June 2020. Demographic and clinical data and laboratory profiles were analyzed and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors of mortality among diabetic patients with COVID-19. Of the 324 patients, 55 (16.97%) had diabetes mellitus. The mean age of all study subjects was 55 years, and the mean age of those with diabetes was greater than that of those without (69.8 years vs. 51.9 years). Remarkably, the mortality rate was much higher among those with diabetes (20.0% vs. 4.8%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that an older age (≥70 years) and a high serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels significantly predicted mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with diabetes. Our study cautions more attention to be paid to patients with diabetes mellitus hospitalized for COVID-19, especially those aged ≥ 70 years and those with a high serum LDH level, to reduce the risk of mortality.

Temperature-dependent competitive advantages of an allelopathic alga over non-allelopathic alga are altered by pollutants and initial algal abundance levels.

In the context of climate warming, the dominance of allelopathic algae that cause ecosystem disturbances is an important topic. Although the hypothesis that an increase in temperature will be favorable to the dominance of allelopathic algae has been increasingly supported by many studies, it is still unclear how other factors can affect the influence of temperature. In this study, the effects of copper exposure and initial algal abundance on the competition between Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata (non-allelopathic alga) and Chlorella vulgaris (allelopathic alga) were investigated during temperature changes. The results showed that increased temperatures enhanced the competitive advantage of C. vulgaris only in the absence of copper exposure. Our data confirmed that copper exposure along with increased temperature (20-30 °C) may change the competitive advantage of C. vulgaris from favorable to unfavorable. The initial algal abundance was found to affect competition outcome by controlling copper toxicity. This study suggests that pollutants and initial abundance can alter the effects of increased temperature on the allelopathic interaction. Given the temporal dynamics of algal abundance and the pollutants in natural ecosystems, these findings should be considered in the prediction of temperature influence on an algal community.

Contributions of egg production and egg hatching to the total toxicity of teflubenzuron in Yuukianura szeptyckii (Collembola) in soil toxicity test.

In the standard ISO soil toxicity test using Collembola, adult survival and juvenile production are the only endpoints that can be attainable. The information on egg production and egg hatching cannot be investigated in the ISO test. To overcome this limitation, in this study, the effects of teflubenzuron on life history parameters of Yuukianura szeptyckii (Collembola) were investigated with a compressed soil test. Teflubenzuron is an insect growth regulator and has a negative effect on egg production, and egg hatching process of arthropods. LC50 decreased with increases in exposure period from 6.97 mg/kg in the third week to 3.60 mg/kg in the fourth week. The EC50 for egg and juvenile production was 0.57 mg/kg and 0.26 mg/kg, respectively. The hatching rate decreased significantly from 46 to 7% as the concentration increased from 0.25 to 1.00 mg/kg, respectively, and the molting frequency was significantly affected only at > 4 mg/kg. The toxic contribution rate (TCR) was defined as the ratio of juvenile production at an exposure concentration compared with the control, and a simple life history model was developed for TCR estimations. At the lower concentrations (< 0.3 mg/kg), the hatching rate reduction was a main contributor to the total toxicity, but the adult mortality and egg production reduction were the main contributors at the higher concentrations (> 2.0 mg/kg). The contribution of egg production reduction remained relatively constant. Since collembolan populations in the soil can be composed of various developmental stages, the differences in the sensitivity to chemicals depending on the developmental stages should be included in the assessment of the toxic impact on soil ecosystems.

Transfer and biological effects of arsenate from soil through a plant-aphid system to the parasitoid wasp, Aphidius colemani.

The accumulation of metalloid elements during transfer from contaminated soil to higher trophic levels may potentially result in the exposure of parasitic arthropods to toxic concentrations of these elements. This study examined the transfer of arsenate (As(V)) to aphids (Myzus persicae) from pepper plants cultivated in As(V) contaminated soils of two concentrations (2 and 6 mg As(V)/kg dry soil), and the subsequent biological effects on the aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani. Results showed that considerable quantities of As(V) were transferred to the plant in a concentration-dependent manner and were partitioned in the plant parts in the order of roots > stems > leaves. The accumulation of As(V) in the aphids increased with the concentrations in the plants; however, the transfer coefficient of As(V) from leaf to aphid was relatively similar and constant (0.07-0.08) at both soil As(V) concentration levels. Increased levels of As(V) significantly affected fecundity and honeydew production in aphids, but survival and developmental time were unaffected. Fecundity (mummification rate) of the parasitoid was not impaired by host As(V) contamination; however, vitality (eclosion rate) was significantly affected. Results are discussed in relation to possible ecological risks posed by the transfer of soil As(V) via the plant-arthropod system to parasitoid arthropods in agroecosystems.

Toxicity effects and biomarkers of tebufenozide exposure in Yuukianura szeptyckii (Collembola: Neanuridae).

Tebufenozide is an insect growth regulator used to control pest caterpillar populations. As an ecdysone agonist, tebufenozide is equally toxic to several non-target arthropod species, binding the receptor sites of the molting hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone and causing premature and lethal molting. In this study, the toxic effects of tebufenozide were assessed, and biomarkers of tebufenozide exposure were identified, in the non-target soil collembolan species Yuukianura szeptyckii. Adult mortality and reproduction in Y. szeptyckii exposed to tebufenozide were evaluated after 28 days of exposure and were used to calculate LC50 and EC50, respectively. The LC50 could not be determined, because the mortality values observed were below 50%, even when exposed to the highest concentration tested (700 mg/kg), but the EC50 was 95.5 mg/kg. Effects on hatching and molting rates were evaluated using compressed soils, to prevent experimental individuals from burrowing; thus, all eggs and exuviae were detectable on the soil surface. Significant negative effects of tebufenozide exposure on the hatching rate and molting frequency were observed only at the highest concentration tested (700 mg/kg). Proteomic analyses were conducted to detect the cryptic effects of toxicity in adult collembolans exposed for 28 days to 43.8 mg/kg of tebufenozide, a concentration at which no toxicity effects were observed. The production rates of two ribosomal proteins, as well as proteins involved in apoptotic cell signaling, were higher in collembolans exposed to tebufenozide than in the control group. However, the production of proteins involved in glycolysis and energy production was downregulated. Therefore, the ecotoxicoproteomic approach is a promising tool for measuring the cryptic effects of tebufenozide exposure in Y. szeptyckii at low concentrations.

Bioavailability and Toxicity of Copper, Manganese, and Nickel in Paronychiurus kimi (Collembola), and Biomarker Discovery for Their Exposure.

Bioavailability and toxicity of Cu, Mn, and Ni in Paronychiurus kimi were investigated after 28 days of exposure to OECD artificial soil spiked with these metals. Uptake and effect of Cu, Mn, and Ni on the reproduction of P. kimi were related to different metal fractions (water-soluble, 0.01 M CaCl2-extractable or porewater metal concentrations). Cu and Mn concentrations in P. kimi increased with increasing Cu and Mn concentrations in the soil, while Ni contents in P. kimi reached a plateau at a concentration higher than 200 mg/kg in soil. Both uptake and juvenile production related well to different metal fractions, suggesting that these metal fractions are suitable for assessing bioavailability and toxicity of metals in P. kimi. When toxicity for reproduction was compared, as reflected by EC50 values, the order of metal toxicity varied depending upon how exposure concentration was expressed. Moreover, the results of proteomic analysis showed that several proteins involved in the immune system, neuronal outgrowth, and metal ion binding were up-regulated in P. kimi following short-term (7 days) exposure to sublethal level (corresponding to 50% of the EC50) of Cu, Mn, or Ni, respectively. This suggests that the ecotoxicoproteomic approach seems to be a promising tool for early exposure warnings below which significant adverse effects are unlikely to occur. This study demonstrated that a combination of chemical and biological measures can provide information about metal bioavailability and toxicity to which P. kimi has been exposed.

Burrowing mayfly Ephemera orientalis (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) as a new test species for pesticide toxicity.

The potential of mayfly Ephemera orientalis McLachlan eggs and first-instar larvae in ecotoxicological testing was investigated. Both stages of E. orientalis showed high tolerance to various environmental variables, such as water temperature, pH, water hardness, and dissolved organic carbon. Toxicological assays were conducted with three insecticides (emamectin benzoate, endosulfan, and cypermethrin), one fungicide (mancozeb), and one herbicide (paraquat dichloride). The two toxicity endpoints for the assay were the 14-day egg median hatching rate (EHC50) in static and renewal exposure systems and 24-h median larval mortality (LC50). Cypermethrin was the most toxic to both eggs (EHC50 in static system = 36.9 µg/L; EHC50 in renewal system < 0.15 µg/L) and larvae (LC50 = 4.5 µg/L), and paraquat dichloride was the least toxic to eggs (EHC50 in static system = 54,359.8 µg/L; EHC50 in renewal system = 49541.3 µg/L) and larvae (LC50 = 9259.5 µg/L). The results were compared to literature data of Daphnia magna Straus and Cloeon dipterum Linnaeus to determine its relative sensitivity to pesticides. These three species had different toxicities to the tested pesticides, especially according to the exposure system. E. orientalis eggs in the static system were found to be less sensitive were D. magna and C. dipterum, but eggs in the renewal system and larvae had similar or higher sensitivities to the tested pesticides. The results revealed that this species has potential for use in ecotoxicological testing of pesticides. Because of its geographic distribution, E. orientalis may be used as an alternative or complementary test species for ecotoxicological studies in Northeast Asian countries, where natural populations of the international standard species, D. magna, are rarely found.

Joint toxic action of binary metal mixtures of copper, manganese and nickel to Paronychiurus kimi (Collembola).

The joint toxic effects of binary metal mixtures of copper (Cu), manganese (Mn) and nickel (Ni) on reproduction of Paronhchiurus kimi (Lee) was evaluated using a toxic unit (TU) approach by judging additivity across a range of effect levels (10-90%). For all metal mixtures, the joint toxic effects of metal mixtures on reproduction of P. kimi decreased in a TU-dependent manner. The joint toxic effects of metal mixtures also changed from less than additive to more than additive at an effect level lower than or equal to 50%, while a more than additive toxic effects were apparent at higher effect levels. These results indicate that the joint toxicity of metal mixtures is substantially different from that of individual metals based on additivity. Moreover, the close relationship of toxicity to effect level suggests that it is necessary to encompass a whole range of effect levels rather than a specific effect level when judging mixture toxicity. In conclusion, the less than additive toxicity at low effect levels suggests that the additivity assumption is sufficiently conservative to warrant predicting joint toxicity of metal mixtures, which may give an additional margin of safety when setting soil quality standards for ecological risk assessment.

A more accurate soft-tissue prediction model for Class III 2-jaw surgeries.

INTRODUCTION: The use of bimaxillary surgeries to treat Class III malocclusions makes the results of the surgeries more complicated to estimate accurately. Therefore, our objective was to develop an accurate soft-tissue prediction model that can be universally applied to Class III surgical-orthodontic patients regardless of the type of surgical correction: maxillary or mandibular surgery with or without genioplasty. METHODS: The subjects of this study consisted of 204 mandibular setback patients who had undergone the combined surgical-orthodontic correction of severe skeletal Class III malocclusions. Among them, 133 patients had maxillary surgeries, and 81 patients received genioplasties. The prediction model included 226 independent and 64 dependent variables. Two prediction methods, the conventional ordinary least squares method and the partial least squares (PLS) method, were compared. When evaluating the prediction methods, the actual surgical outcome was the gold standard. After fitting the equations, test errors were calculated in absolute values and root mean square values through the leave-1-out cross-validation method. RESULTS: The validation result demonstrated that the multivariate PLS prediction model with 30 orthogonal components showed the best prediction quality among others. With the PLS method, the pattern of prediction errors between 1-jaw and 2-jaw surgeries did not show a significantly difference. CONCLUSIONS: The multivariate PLS prediction model based on about 30 latent variables might provide an improved algorithm in predicting surgical outcomes after 1-jaw and 2-jaw surgical corrections for Class III patients.