Do changes in land use, water bodies, and grazing pastures have a detrimental influence on environmental quality? Opportunities and threats to long-term growth.

Land use activities mainly for economic and agricultural purposes have converted one third to one half of our planet's land surface into urban expansion and agricultural practice, which has had significant impacts on natural ecosystems, food production, and environmental quality, attracting the attention of researchers and policymakers. Consequently, land use is emerging as a fundamental issue in global environmental change and sustainable development. This study represents an addition to the prevailing literature by investigating the asymmetric impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on environmental quality in Pakistan using time series data from 1961 to 2016. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were deemed a dependent variable (a proxy for environmental quality), whereas built-up land, cropland, water bodies, and grazing land were considered independent. A nonlinear ARDL bound testing technique (NARDL) was used to investigate dynamic cointegration among the study variables. Moreover, this study used the BDS test and structural break unit root test to confirm nonlinearity and stationarity of the data set. The results confirm that the variables exhibit asymmetrical co-integration. There is a symmetric unidirectional causation, running from built-up land and grazing land towards CO2 emissions with coefficients of 10.570 and 17.045, respectively. Furthermore, asymmetric causality shows that any positive shocks to built-up land (6.134) and water bodies (20.335) significantly cause CO2 emissions. Similarly, a negative shock to grazing land (16.470) also causes CO2 emissions. By contrast, a neutral effect was found between cropland and CO2 emissions.

Environmental quality and the asymmetrical nonlinear consequences of energy consumption, trade openness and economic development: prospects for environmental management and carbon neutrality.

Economic expansion gives rise to modern and energy-efficient technologies and, thus, contributes to a decline in energy usage. Developing countries, including Pakistan, require tremendous efforts to sustain economic growth. However, to attain economic growth, these countries have to cope with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental problems. This research focuses primarily on the asymmetric impacts of energy consumption and economic growth on Pakistan's environmental quality. Accordingly, secondary data spanning from 1971 to 2018 was used, and carbon dioxide emission (CO2) was considered a target variable (a proxy for environmental quality), whereas energy consumption (E) and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic growth, and trade accessibility (TR) and foreign direct investment (FDI) as control variables. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach is used to verify the asymmetric co-integration between the variables selected. Moreover, to examine data stationarity and nonlinearity, we used the Zivot-Andrews structural break unit root and BDS tests, respectively. The findings confirmed the asymmetric and symmetric co-integrations among the considered variables. In addition, the causality analysis reveals that only negative shocks to TR have an effect on CO2 emissions. Similarly, negative shocks to FDI asymmetrically cause CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, GDP symmetrically affects CO2 emissions. Finally, a neutral causal response was observed between E and CO2 emissions. These findings have policy implications in terms of environmental management and carbon neutrality, and they serve as a baseline for future research.

Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future.

In recent years, flooding has not only disrupted social growth but has also hampered economic development. In many nations, this global epidemic has affected lives, property, and financial damage. Pakistan has experienced many floods in the past several years. Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding. In order to overcome this problem, the institutions of the country have taken various measures. However, these measures are not sufficient enough to ensure the safety of communities and areas that are prone to disasters with a rapid onset. Hence, it is imperative to forecast future flood-related risks and take necessary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts and losses caused by floods. This article is aimed at exploring floods in Pakistan, analyze the adverse effects of floods on humans and the environment, and propose possible sustainable options for the future. The aqueduct flood analyzer software was used to examine the impact of floods on gross domestic product (GDP), urban damage, and people livelihood, with several years of flood protection plans. To adequately assess the future changes, various flood protection levels and three scenarios for each level of protection were employed, which represent the socio-economic and climate change. The findings revealed that if there is no flood protection, a 2-year flood has a 50% probability of flood occurrence in any given area and may cause no significant impact on GDP, population, and urban damage. Similarly, the probability of a flood occurrence in a five-year flood is 20%, which may cause the country's GDP about $20.4 billion, with 8.4 million population at risk and $1.4 billion urban damage. Furthermore, a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of flood occurrence and may affect the national GDP by $28.9 billion, with 11.9 million affected population and $2.4 billion urban damage in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan should devise appropriate climate change policies, improve disaster preparedness, build new dams, and update relevant departments to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding.

Yield gap analysis of major food crops in Pakistan: prospects for food security.

The concept of yield gap analysis can be used to meet the growing demands for agricultural products. Sustainable development goals (e.g. SDG1 and SDG2) to end poverty and hunger require sustainable increases in agricultural production in developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Africa. The aim of this paper is to assess the spatial heterogeneity of the potential and actual yields of major food crops and to determine the yield gaps at the provincial and national levels in Pakistan. The regional test yields of the registered cultivars were used to determine the potential grain yields and total potential grain production levels in each province of Pakistan. The yield gaps were then calculated by comparing the potential and actual yields of the selected major food crops. With a substantial exploitation rate of 0.38 in total grain production, a significant potential gap was found at the national level. The results revealed that the national potential of total grain production is 100,933 Mg, and the actual national grain production from 2015 to 2016 was 38,227 Mg, with a production gap of 62,706 Mg. The results further revealed that the maize crop had the highest potential gap on a national basis, followed by wheat and rice. Meanwhile, on provincial basis, the total production gaps of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are 43,776 Mg, 9649.3 Mg, 6772.1 Mg and 2510.7 Mg, respectively. Moreover, based on climate, temperature, rainfall and topography, the yield gaps varied from crop to crop and from province to province. To increase grain yields and close the yield gaps of the major crops, the farmland infrastructure should be strengthened and resource allocations should be optimized. The findings of this study can provide conclusive data for national grain production, protection and food security.

Do residential localities matter? Revisiting preference heterogeneity and ranking of ecological attributes of an inland river basin.

Recognition of public preferences and the assessment of the river basin are valuable for efficient river basin management, and improvement in ecological attributes of river basin can provide considerable non-market benefits. Accordingly, the current study examines the heterogeneity in preferences and ranking of river ecosystem services amongst residents on the basis of their willingness to pay (WTP) to enhance these services. Given the different environmental and economic conditions of urban and rural residents in China, their views on ecological restoration differ. Various Likert scales were used to explore residents' perceptions and ranking of ecological attributes. Findings revealed that urban and rural residents care about water for their daily life, with the mean value of 2.08 and 2.10 and the lowest standard deviation of 1.63 and 1.59, respectively where the range of scale is '1 is the most important and 7 is the least important'. Agricultural and industrial water, weather management in Yangsha Lake, vegetation restoration, biodiversity conservation and downstream ecological protection were the next most imperative ecological attributes. Moreover, the results from random parameter logit (RPL) models show that river water quality has the highest marginal utility value, whereas recreational conditions have the lowest marginal utility value in all respondents' models. A considerable difference exists amongst urban and rural residents' WTP for improvements in ecological amenities. Amongst all households, lower basin residents prefer and value ecological attributes and are ready to pay whatever cost for restoration. Generally, urban residents have high implicit prices for most of river ecosystem attributes. Findings reveal that the policymakers should consider the existing preference heterogeneity when designing ecosystem payment plans and allocating resources.

Hierarchical regression approach to quantify farm households' pro-environmental behavior.

The conflict which exists between a households' self-interest and pro-environmental behavior has led to emotional barriers in ecological conservation. We propose that self-construal affects preferences in this conflicting choice, and self-control plays the mediating role. This study provides conflicting decisions associated with the households' green pesticide adoption behavior in China. Individuals were inquired to select between environmental (pro-environmental) and cost-effective (self-interested) pesticide for food security. Hierarchical regression analysis was employed to progress standard regression estimates by adding a second-stage prior regression to an ordinary model and provides a practical method to evaluate multiple exposures. The results show that the hierarchical regression model may improve environmental protection behavioral studies by including socioeconomic, demographic, and psychological factors. Moreover, our study aims to examine the mediating effect of self-control on the relationship between "self-construal" (SC) and "conflict of self-interest and pro-environmental behavior" (CIPB). Results indicate that self-control (coefficient, - 0.0739; significant level, 5%) partially mediates the relationship between SC and CIPB. Our findings suggest that compared with independent self-construal (coefficient, - 0.05; significant level, 5%), the respondents with interdependent self-construal (coefficient, - 0.09; significant level, 1%) favor pro-environmental choices as they are better in applying self-control and perform pro-environmental behavior. The finding reveals that the hierarchical regression approach provides significant advantages in studying a rural households' pro-environmental decision-making. The current research has policy implications for the adoption of environment-friendly pesticide and organic fertilizer.

The inhabitants' dual interest preferences and their impact on pro-environmental behavior in China.

The land use changes and farmers' unreasonable land use behaviors continue to threaten China's agricultural land, exacerbating the impact of pollution. The factors that persuade farm households to perform pro-environmental actions are preliminary efforts to strengthen environmental protection. The current study aims to better understand how the dual interest preferences of rural households are interrelated and influence their environmental behavior. A structured questionnaire was employed to collect the primary data from 4 provinces in China to develop new methods to measure the dual interest preferences of farmers and to study their impact on pro-environmental behaviors. The structural equation model (SEM) in Stata14 was used to analyze the relationship between latent and observed variables and to understand their impact on farmers' environmental behavior. The results showed that all the observed variables have the expected signs and have a significant relationship with their latent variables. With the coefficients of 0.76, 0.88, and 0.64, the underlying variables related to the households' dual interest preferences are statistically significantly correlated. The coefficient 0.34 of the latent variable ensures a direct and significant impact on farm households' pro-environmental behavior, suggesting that non-uniformity preferences or conflicts exist between the short- and long-term economic interests. Similarly, a positive and significant coefficient of 0.28 suggests the non-uniformity of preferences in short-term economic and social interests. All the fitness indices ensured that our model fits well. To improve the environment and land quality, the current research has policy implications for the adoption of environment-friendly pesticide and organic fertilizers.

Public Attitudes, Preferences and Willingness to Pay for River Ecosystem Services.

River basins are key sources of ecosystem services, with a wide range of social and economic benefits and many effects on human well-being. However, intensified land use and other dramatic variations in river ecosystems can alter ecosystem functions and services. In this study, we explored the public awareness, attitude and perception regarding environmental and water resource issues and assessed the willingness to pay (WTP) for improving selected attributes of the Wei River basin. Various rankings, Likert scales and random parameter logit (RPL) models were used to analyze data obtained from 900 surveyed respondents. Most respondents were more concerned about environmental and water resource management issues rather than socioeconomic attributes. From a policy perspective, 83.32% and 50.50% of the residents ranked "improvement in water quality" and "improving irrigation conditions," respectively, as their main priorities regarding ecological restoration. Moreover, the results obtained using RPL models showed that the coefficients were significant for all ecological attributes and monetary attributes, as expected. The positive and significant coefficient for the alternative specific constant demonstrated that the respondents preferred restoration alternatives to the status quo. Furthermore, the highest WTP was found for water quality (91.99 RMB), followed by erosion intensity (23.59 RMB) and water quantity (11.79 RMB). Our results are relevant to policy development and they indicate that ecological restoration is the favored option.

Impact assessment of land use change on surface temperature and agricultural productivity in Peshawar-Pakistan.

The profound appreciation of urban expansion and land use change (LUC) considerably influences the ecosystem functions, services, and biodiversity along with the local and regional climate. Land use has undergone an awful transformation due to rapid urbanization and population growth, which in turn increased land surface temperature (LST) in district Peshawar, Pakistan. The current study tends to capture the influence of land use on LST and agricultural productivity by employing multi-temporal, multispectral satellite data and agricultural production data during the selected years, i.e., 1996, 2003, and 2016. The results demonstrated that barren land considerably decreased while the urban area increased over time in all three phases. Furthermore, significant LST difference was found in different land cover units; e.g., barren land and urban area have the maximum, while water bodies followed by vegetation retain minimum LST in all three phases, i.e., 1996, 2003, and 2016. Similarly, the results from agricultural production revealed that except for wheat crops, which decreased by 7.54% during 1999-2003, the production of all major food crops increased during the selected years. However, the production of sugar cane and barley experienced considerable reduction during the selected years, except for barley, which increased by 22.86% during 2003-2016. The finding of this study provides guidance, policy recommendations, and reference for future researchers. Graphical abstract .