Hospital care for persons with AIDS in European-Union countries; a cross-country comparison.

This paper compares AIDS hospital care in several European-Union countries. For this purpose hospital-care utilisation studies on inpatient days and outpatient contacts were analysed in a generic approach controlling for severity stages of AIDS. Lifetime hospital-care needs for AIDS are derived, providing useful information for health-care policy makers. In a next step, lifetime estimates are linked to estimated annual new cases of AIDS, resulting from standardised epidemiological modelling. These results on AIDS impact at the population level are reported including statistical confidence limits. Both lifetime hospital-care needs at the patient level and AIDS impact at the population level are compared between countries and related to characteristics of the national AIDS epidemics and health-care systems. A person with AIDS has a contact--either inpatient day or outpatient visit--with the hospital in 14% (UK) to 24% (France) of the days spent in the AIDS stage. Related to the national AIDS epidemics (epidemiological impact), Italy and Greece have high levels of outpatient contacts per million population. Estimated hospital-bed needs for AIDS in 1995 are up to 2.13% (in Spain) of total national acute-care hospital beds available. Estimated per-capita needs for outpatient visits in 1995 are highest in Italy, corresponding to 108 doctor full-time equivalents. In a case-study for Greece and The Netherlands, differences in hospital-care utilisation patterns were assessed to correspond with differences in their health-care systems (number of hospital beds, doctors and nurses per capita and some qualitative characteristics of medical care in both countries). International comparison of AIDS hospital care is possible using standardised analysis of national hospital-care utilisation data and standardised epidemiological modelling. Estimates of lifetime hospital-care needs are an essential input for cost-effectiveness analyses used to aid health-care policy decision-making.

Estimating influenza-related hospitalization in The Netherlands.

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of influenza on hospitalization in The Netherlands. Two methods were applied to estimate this effect: (a) regression analysis and (b) comparison of hospitalization in epidemic years with non-epidemic years. Hospital discharge rates in 1984-93 have been considered. The study shows that, during the period studied, on average, almost 2700 people were hospitalized for influenza per annum, and that influenza was diagnosed as the main cause for hospitalization in only a fraction of these hospitalizations (326: 12%). From an economic perspective, these results imply that the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against influenza may be severely underestimated when looking only at changes achieved in the number of hospitalizations attributed to influenza.

Disease-staging for modelling current and future health-care impact of disease: illustrations for diabetes mellitus and AIDS.

This paper addresses the economic relevance of appropriately staging progression of disease for cost assessment and projection. Illustrations are drawn from two Dutch cost-of-illness studies for Diabetes Mellitus (DM) and AIDS. Our disease-staging specifies a separate late stage to capture terminal high-intensity care for end-stage complications. Data are used from a registration of national hospital resource utilization for DM and from a detailed database on AIDS hospital care and costs. In particular, differences in average length of hospital stay for several potential DM end-stage complications are compared with non-DM patients. Neglecting the separation of a specific late stage is estimated to possibly miscalculate 15-20% of the hospital bed needs for DM and AIDS in the Netherlands. In particular, confidence intervals of future projections for AIDS hospital beds--using respectively staged and non-staged models--do not overlap. AIDS hospital costs are overprojected by almost 11% in the non-staged model. Our estimation of DM hospital bed needs raises the percentage in total Dutch hospital beds from 1.7% (neglecting a specific late stage) to 2.0%. For DM and AIDS an appropriate disease-staging averts structural biases in estimations of bed needs and costs, and therefore benefits the planning of hospital care facilities. Obviously, gathering comparable information and developing similar methodology on other diseases, such as respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer, is needed and could benefit planning in these fields.

Hospital care for persons with AIDS in the European Union.

This study estimates the current and future hospital resources for AIDS patients in the European Union (EU), using multinational scenario analysis (EU Concerted Action BMH1-CT-941723). In collaboration with another EU-project ('Managing the Costs of HIV Infection'), six national European studies on the utilization of hospital care for AIDS have been selected to provide the data for our analysis. The selection criteria involve recentness, quality, comparability, accessibility and representativeness. Baseline hospital resource utilization is estimated for hospital inpatient days and outpatient contracts, using a standardized approach controlling for two severity stages of AIDS (chronic stage and late stage). The epidemiological part of the study is based on standard models for backcalculating HIV incidence and projecting AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality. In the next step, baseline resource utilization is linked to epidemiological information in a mixed prevalence and mortality-based approach. Several scenarios render different future epidemiological developments and hospital resource needs. For the year 1999, hospital bed needs of 10,000-12,700 in the EU are indicated, representing an increase of 20-60% compared to the estimated current (1995) level. The projected range for 1999 corresponds to a maximum of 0.65% of all hospital beds available in the EU. The growth in the number of outpatient hospital contacts is projected to possibly exceed that of inpatient days up to 1.82 million in 1999. Our methodology illustrates that estimation of current and future hospital care for AIDS has to be controlled for severity stages, to prevent biases. Further application of the multinational approach is demonstrated through a 'what-if' analysis of the potential impact of combination triple therapy for HIV/AIDS. Estimation of the economic impact of other diseases could as well benefit from the severity-stages approach.

Cognitive-educational treatment of fibromyalgia: a randomized clinical trial. II. Economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: In this 3 year randomized clinical trial the cost effectiveness of a 6 week educational/cognitive intervention (ECO) is compared with an educational discussion intervention (EDI) and a waiting list condition (WLC). METHODS: A total of 131 patients with fibromyalgia were randomly allocated to the ECO, EDI, or WLC intervention. The ECO and EDI groups were followed for 12 months, whereas the WLC group was followed for 6 weeks. Direct health care and nonhealth care costs, and the indirect costs associated with lost production due to illness, were calculated. The effects were measured in terms of utilities, using rating scale and standard gamble methods. RESULTS: Treatment costs were estimated to be US $980 per patient for both ECO and EDI. The total direct health care costs of ECO treatment were US $1623 higher than those for EDI. This difference was significant. Indirect costs for the 2 groups were not significantly different. At 6 weeks there was a significant difference in rating scale utilities between the 3 groups, caused by a significantly greater improvement in the EDI group compared to the WLC group. However, no significant differences in either rating scale or standard gamble utilities were found between the ECO and EDI groups immediately after treatment, or at the 6 or 12 month followups. CONCLUSION: The economic evaluation showed that the addition of a cognitive component to the educational intervention led to significantly higher health care costs and no additional improvement in quality of life compared to the educational intervention alone. This conclusion is robust through a range of plausible values used in a sensitivity analysis.

AIDS scenarios for The Netherlands; the economic impact on hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the health care system in The Netherlands. DATA AND METHODS: Two types of data are used: (i) routine surveillance data on AIDS incidence and (ii) information on hospital resource utilisation and corresponding monetary costs. Progression of disease is modelled using a multi-stage model, with stages corresponding to clinical classifications and to different phases of health care need. Economic impact is analysed for all stages in three scenarios: the reference and two alternative scenarios. RESULTS: In the year 2000 hospital bed need would reach 220 beds if yearly new HIV infections in the 1990s remain at the level estimated for the end of the 1980s, and if the intensity of hospital care remains constant. A minimum need of 125 beds is projected if no new HIV infections occur in the 1990s. Hospital costs in 1993 are estimated to amount to 33.8 million ECUs. Scenarios indicate a range of 26.7-50.7 million ECUs for the year 2000 (price level: 1993). The proportion of the costs of hospital inpatient care and cure in total hospital costs increases, whereas the proportion for outpatient services decreases. CONCLUSIONS: Projected hospital bed need of 125-220 for HIV/AIDS in the year 2000 is limited compared to the projections for coronary heart disease and stroke, but approaches that for lung cancer, pneumonia and diabetes. We estimate hospital costs to have been 85% of total health care costs for HIV/AIDS in 1993. In 1993, the estimated proportions in hospital costs are 41% for inpatient care, 20% for inpatient cure and 39% for outpatient facilities. Our scenarios indicate a decreasing share of outpatient costs--possibly to 30% of total hospital costs for HIV/AIDS in 2000--illustrating the growing relative importance of the AIDS stage for the hospital costs. We project hospital costs for HIV/AIDS in 2000 to reach up to 0.53% of projected hospital costs for all diseases. A present value of 38 million ECUs (23%) of hospital costs projected in the reference scenario might be avoidable, during the period 1994-2000. However, with unchanged treatment patterns a present value of 127 million ECUs for hospital costs during the same period is projected to represent unavoidable costs (discount rate: 5%). In The Netherlands, data needs in the field of economic impact assessment of HIV/AIDS especially refer to registrations of non-hospital outpatient resource utilisation and costs.

Some factors to consider when using the results of economic evaluation studies at the population level.

The cost-effectiveness of a medical intervention at the population level may deviate from that reported for evaluations at the patient level. It is important for researchers and decision makers to know about the relevance of externalities, phasing-in effects, treatment effectiveness in the community, capacity issues, and different time perspectives in the evaluation of an intervention.