Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Snow-Influenced Catchment.

The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been intensively studied for different regions and climates across the world. In regions where winter processes such as snowfall and melting play a significant role, anticipated changes in temperature might significantly affect hydrological systems. To address this impact, modifications have been made to the fully integrated surface-subsurface flow model HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to allow the simulation of snow accumulation and melting. The modified HGS model was used to assess the potential impact of climate change on surface and subsurface flow in the Saint-Charles River catchment, Quebec (Canada) for the period 2070 to 2100. The model was first developed and calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow and hydraulic heads for current climate conditions. The calibrated model was then used with three different climate scenarios to simulate surface flow and groundwater dynamics for the 2070 to 2100 period. Winter stream discharges are predicted to increase by about 80, 120, and 150% for the three scenarios due to warmer winters, leading to more liquid precipitation and more snowmelt. Conversely, the summer stream discharges are predicted to fall by about 10, 15, and 20% due to an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the annual mean stream discharge should remain stable (±0.1 m3 /s). The predicted increase in hydraulic heads in winter may reach 15 m and the maximum decrease in summer may reach 3 m. Simulations show that winter processes play a key role in the seasonal modifications anticipated for surface and subsurface flow dynamics.

Atmospheric Carbon Mineralization in an Industrial-Scale Chrysotile Mining Waste Pile.

Magnesium-rich minerals that are abundant in ultramafic mining waste have the potential to be used as a safe and permanent sequestration solution for carbon dioxide (CO2). Our understanding of thermo-hydro-chemical regimes that govern this reaction at an industrial scale, however, has remained an important challenge to its widespread implementation. Through a year-long monitoring experiment performed at a 110 Mt chrysotile waste pile, we have documented the existence of two distinct thermo-hydro-chemical regimes that control the ingress of CO2 and the subsequent mineral carbonation of the waste. The experimental results are supported by a coupled free-air/porous media numerical flow and transport model that provides insights into optimization strategies to increase the efficiency of mineral sequestration at an industrial scale. Although functioning passively under less-than-optimal conditions compared to laboratory-scale experiments, the 110 Mt Thetford Mines pile is nevertheless estimated to be sequestering up to 100 tonnes of CO2 per year, with a potential total carbon capture capacity under optimal conditions of 3 Mt. Annually, more than 100 Mt of ultramafic mine waste suitable for mineral carbonation is generated by the global mining industry. Our results show that this waste material could become a safe and permanent carbon sink for diffuse sources of CO2.

Physically based groundwater vulnerability assessment using sensitivity analysis methods.

A general physically based method is presented to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to external pressures by numerical simulation of groundwater flow. The concept of groundwater vulnerability assessment considered here is based on the calculation of sensitivity coefficients for a user-defined groundwater state for which we propose several physically based indicators. Two sensitivity analysis methods are presented: the sensitivity equation method and the adjoint operator method. We show how careful selection of a method can significantly minimize the computational effort. An illustration of the general methodology is presented for the Herten aquifer analog (Germany). This application to a simple, yet insightful, case demonstrates the potential use of this general and physically based vulnerability assessment method to complex aquifers.