RESUMO
BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.
RESUMO
Global left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction is the strongest predictor of morbidity and mortality in Chagas disease. Echocardiography is considered the gold standard for the detection of LV dysfunction, but not always available in endemic areas where chagasic cardiomyopathy is most common. Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a neurohormone that has been recently described as a simple and inexpensive diagnostic and prognostic marker for patients with congestive heart failure. Chagasic patients (n = 63) and non-infected healthy individuals (n = 18) were recruited prospectively and underwent complete clinical examination, echocardiography and 24-h Holter monitoring. BNP was measured from thawed plasma samples using the Triage BNP test. We observed high levels of BNP in association with depression of LV ejection fraction, with increase of LV end-diastolic diameter and with LV premature complexes. An elevated concentration of BNP, defined as a concentration of 60 pg/ml or more, had a sensitivity of 91.7 percent, specificity of 82.8 percent, positive predictive value of 52.4 percent, and negative predictive value of 98 percent for detecting LV dysfunction (LV ejection fraction < 40 percent).BNP measurement using a simple, relatively inexpensive and rapid test has a promising role in identifying LV dysfunction associated with chagasic cardiomyopathy. Equally important, patients with Trypanosoma cruzi infection who have low levels of BNP level in plasma have a very low likelihood of severe cardiac involvement, and echocardiography is probably not necessary.
