The Association of Urinary Sodium Excretion with Glaucoma and Related Traits in a Large United Kingdom Population.

PURPOSE: Excessive dietary sodium intake has known adverse effects on intravascular fluid volume and systemic blood pressure, which may influence intraocular pressure (IOP) and glaucoma risk. This study aimed to assess the association of urinary sodium excretion, a biomarker of dietary intake, with glaucoma and related traits, and determine whether this relationship is modified by genetic susceptibility to disease. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational and gene-environment interaction analyses in the population-based UK Biobank study. PARTICIPANTS: Up to 103 634 individuals (mean age: 57 years; 51% women) with complete urinary, ocular, and covariable data. METHODS: Urine sodium:creatinine ratio (UNa:Cr; mmol:mmol) was calculated from a midstream urine sample. Ocular parameters were measured as part of a comprehensive eye examination, and glaucoma case ascertainment was through a combination of self-report and linked national hospital records. Genetic susceptibility to glaucoma was calculated based on a glaucoma polygenic risk score comprising 2673 common genetic variants. Multivariable linear and logistic regression, adjusted for key sociodemographic, medical, anthropometric, and lifestyle factors, were used to model associations and gene-environment interactions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Corneal-compensated IOP, OCT derived macular retinal nerve fiber layer and ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) thickness, and prevalent glaucoma. RESULTS: In maximally adjusted regression models, a 1 standard deviation increase in UNa:Cr was associated with higher IOP (0.14 mmHg; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12-0.17; P < 0.001) and greater prevalence of glaucoma (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.14; P < 0.001) but not macular retinal nerve fiber layer or ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thickness. Compared with those with UNa:Cr in the lowest quintile, those in the highest quintile had significantly higher IOP (0.45 mmHg; 95% CI, 0.36-0.53, P < 0.001) and prevalence of glaucoma (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.17-1.45; P < 0.001). Stronger associations with glaucoma (P interaction = 0.001) were noted in participants with a higher glaucoma polygenic risk score. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary sodium excretion, a biomarker of dietary intake, may represent an important modifiable risk factor for glaucoma, especially in individuals at high underlying genetic risk. These findings warrant further investigation because they may have important clinical and public health implications. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Hospital-treated infections and subsequent Parkinson's disease risk: a register-based sibling comparison study.

Serious infections may result in greater risk of Parkinson's disease. However, high-quality cohort studies focusing on a potential causal role of different types and sites of infection are lacking. Gastrointestinal infections are of a particular interest due to growing evidence implicating gut dysbiosis in Parkinson's disease aetiology. This population-based cohort study used the Swedish Total Population Register to identify individuals born during 1944-77 and resident in Sweden between 1990 and 2018 (N = 3 698 319). Hospital-treated infections at ages 21-30 and 31-40 years were identified from the National Patient Register. Participants were followed to identify Parkinson's disease diagnoses from age 41 years up to December 31, 2018, when the oldest individual reached 75 years. Cox regression with a sibling comparison design to tackle familial genetic and environmental confounding was used to derive hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for each infection site, type, or any infections at ages 21-30 and 31-40 years. During a median follow-up of 15.4 years, 8815 unique Parkinson's disease diagnoses were accrued, with a crude rate of 17.3 (95% confidence interval 17.0, 17.7) per 100 000 person-years. After controlling for shared familial factors, hospital-treated gastrointestinal and respiratory infections between 21 and 30 years of age were associated with a greater risk of Parkinson's disease [hazard ratios 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 1.05, 1.75) and 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.08, 1.95), respectively]; no association was found for any infections at age 31-40 [hazard ratio 1.05 (95% confidence interval: 0.93, 1.19)]. After adjustment, no statistically significant associations were observed for other sites including genitourinary and skin. These findings suggest that hospital-treated infections of the gastrointestinal tract and lungs, both of which may have an influence on the gut microbiome, by age 30 years may be risk factors for Parkinson's disease.

Limosilactobacillus reuteri DSM 17938 supplementation and SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody response in healthy adults: a randomized, triple-blinded, placebo-controlled trial.

Studies have shown that probiotics can decrease the symptoms of respiratory tract infections as well as increase antibody responses following certain vaccinations. We examined the effect of probiotic supplementation on anti-SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody responses upon SARS-CoV-2 infection as well as after COVID-19 vaccination. In this randomized, triple-blinded, placebo-controlled intervention study with a parallel design, 159 healthy adults without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccination and any known risk factors for severe COVID-19 were randomly allocated into two study arms. The active treatment arm consumed a probiotic product containing a minimum of 1 × 108 colony-forming units of Limosilactobacillus reuteri DSM 17938 + 10 µg vitamin D3 twice daily for 6 months. The placebo arm consumed identical tablets containing only 10 µg vitamin D3. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies and virus neutralizing antibody titers were analyzed from blood samples collected at baseline, after 3 months, and after 6 months. Differences in serum antibody titers between the two study arms were tested with independent t-test using log-transformed values. In the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis, SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in the active treatment arm (n = 6) tended to have higher serum anti-spike IgG (609 [168-1480] BAU/ml vs 111 [36.1-1210] BAU/ml, p = 0.080) and anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG (928 [212-3449] BAU/ml vs (83.7 [22.8-2094] BAU/ml, p = 0.066) levels than individuals in the placebo arm (n = 6). Considering individuals who were fully vaccinated with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, the active treatment arm (n = 10) exhibited significantly higher serum levels of anti-RBD IgA (135 [32.9-976] BAU/ml vs 61.3 [26.7-97.1] BAU/ml, p = 0.036) than the placebo arm (n = 7) >28 days postvaccination. Supplementation with specific probiotics might improve the long-term efficacy of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines via enhanced IgA response.

Mediterranean diet adherence is associated with lower dementia risk, independent of genetic predisposition: findings from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The identification of effective dementia prevention strategies is a major public health priority, due to the enormous and growing societal cost of this condition. Consumption of a Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) has been proposed to reduce dementia risk. However, current evidence is inconclusive and is typically derived from small cohorts with limited dementia cases. Additionally, few studies have explored the interaction between diet and genetic risk of dementia. METHODS: We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to explore the associations between MedDiet adherence, defined using two different scores (Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener [MEDAS] continuous and Mediterranean diet Pyramid [PYRAMID] scores), and incident all-cause dementia risk in 60,298 participants from UK Biobank, followed for an average 9.1 years. The interaction between diet and polygenic risk for dementia was also tested. RESULTS: Higher MedDiet adherence was associated with lower dementia risk (MEDAS continuous: HR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.65-0.91; PYRAMID: HR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.73-1.02 for highest versus lowest tertiles). There was no significant interaction between MedDiet adherence defined by the MEDAS continuous and PYRAMID scores and polygenic risk for dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Higher adherence to a MedDiet was associated with lower dementia risk, independent of genetic risk, underlining the importance of diet in dementia prevention interventions.

Ageing accounts for much of the association between decreasing grip strength and subsequent loneliness: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Loneliness at older ages has been associated with higher morbidity and mortality. One of the risk factors for loneliness may be age-related decline in skeletal muscle strength, which may limit the possibilities for engagement in usual social activities and maintaining relationships. We aimed to identify if decrease in grip strength is an independent determinant of subsequent change in loneliness. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of participants aged 50 years or older living in private households and provided data in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing waves 2 (2004/2005), 4 (2008/2009) and 6 (2012/2013) (n=6118). We used fixed effects linear models to estimate ß coefficients and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The adjusted estimates for a 5-kilogramme decrease in grip strength and loneliness score (ranging from 3 to 9) are ß 0.04 and 95% CI -0.003 to 0.08 among men and ß 0.03 and 95% CI -0.02 to 0.09 among women. In age-stratified analysis, a statistically significant association was observed among men below the age of 80 years (0.04, 0.0001 to 0.08) but not among older men (0.04, -0.28 to 0.35), and among women below the age of 80 years (0.03, -0.002 to 0.09) or above (-0.02, -0.32 to 0.28). CONCLUSION: Muscle strength declines with age and may help explain the greater social isolation that occurs at older ages. Decline in strength was only independently associated with modestly increased loneliness among men younger than 80 years of age, indicating its limitation as a potential marker of loneliness risk.

The Association of Alcohol Consumption with Glaucoma and Related Traits: Findings from the UK Biobank.

PURPOSE: To examine the associations of alcohol consumption with glaucoma and related traits, to assess whether a genetic predisposition to glaucoma modified these associations, and to perform Mendelian randomization (MR) experiments to probe causal effects. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational and gene-environment interaction analyses in the UK Biobank. Two-sample MR experiments using summary statistics from large genetic consortia. PARTICIPANTS: UK Biobank participants with data on intraocular pressure (IOP) (n = 109 097), OCT-derived macular inner retinal layer thickness measures (n = 46 236) and glaucoma status (n = 173 407). METHODS: Participants were categorized according to self-reported drinking behaviors. Quantitative estimates of alcohol intake were derived from touchscreen questionnaires and food composition tables. We performed a 2-step analysis, first comparing categories of alcohol consumption (never, infrequent, regular, and former drinkers) before assessing for a dose-response effect in regular drinkers only. Multivariable linear, logistic, and restricted cubic spline regression, adjusted for key sociodemographic, medical, anthropometric, and lifestyle factors, were used to examine associations. We assessed whether any association was modified by a multitrait glaucoma polygenic risk score. The inverse-variance weighted method was used for the main MR analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Intraocular pressure, macular retinal nerve fiber layer (mRNFL) thickness, macular ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (mGCIPL) thickness, and prevalent glaucoma. RESULTS: Compared with infrequent drinkers, regular drinkers had higher IOP (+0.17 mmHg; P < 0.001) and thinner mGCIPL (-0.17 µm; P = 0.049), whereas former drinkers had a higher prevalence of glaucoma (odds ratio, 1.53; P = 0.002). In regular drinkers, alcohol intake was adversely associated with all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner (all P < 0.001). Restricted cubic spline regression analyses suggested nonlinear associations, with apparent threshold effects at approximately 50 g (∼6 UK or 4 US alcoholic units)/week for mRNFL and mGCIPL thickness. Significantly stronger alcohol-IOP associations were observed in participants at higher genetic susceptibility to glaucoma (Pinteraction < 0.001). Mendelian randomization analyses provided evidence for a causal association with mGCIPL thickness. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake was consistently and adversely associated with glaucoma and related traits, and at levels below current United Kingdom (< 112 g/week) and United States (women, < 98 g/week; men, < 196 g/week) guidelines. Although we cannot infer causality definitively, these results will be of interest to people with or at risk of glaucoma and their advising physicians. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Evaluation of the New Individual Fatty Acid Dataset for UK Biobank: Analysis of Intakes and Sources in 207,997 Participants.

The Oxford WebQ is an online 24 h dietary assessment tool used by several large prospective studies. This study describes the creation of the new individual fatty acid (FA) dataset for the Oxford WebQ and reports intakes and sources of dietary individual FAs in the UK Biobank. Participants who completed ≥1 (maximum of five) 24 h dietary assessments were included (n = 207,997). Nutrient intakes were obtained from the average of all completed 24 h dietary assessments. Nutrient data from the UK McCance and Widdowson's The Composition of Foods and the US Department of Agriculture food composition tables were used to calculate intakes of 21 individual FAs. The individual FA dataset included 10 saturated fatty acids (SFAs), 4 monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs), and 7 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs; including alpha-linolenic (18:3), eicosapentaenoic (20:5), and docosahexaenoic (22:6) acids). Palmitic (16:0; mean ± standard deviation (SD): 13.5 ± 5.7 g/d) and stearic (18:0; 5.2 ± 2.5) acids were the main contributors to SFAs, and the main sources of these were cereals and cereal products (mostly desserts/cakes/pastries), milk and milk products (mostly cheese and milk), and meat and meat products. Oleic acid (18:1; 24.2 ± 9.8) was the main MUFA, derived mainly from cereals and cereal products, and meat and meat products. Linoleic acid (18:2; 9.7 ± 4.3) was the main PUFA, derived mostly from cereals and cereal products, and vegetables (including potatoes) and vegetable dishes. The individual FA dataset for the Oxford WebQ will allow future investigations on individual FAs and disease risk.

The Association between Serum Lipids and Intraocular Pressure in 2 Large United Kingdom Cohorts.

PURPOSE: Serum lipids are modifiable, routinely collected blood test features associated with cardiovascular health. We examined the association of commonly collected serum lipid measures (total cholesterol [TC], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and triglycerides) with intraocular pressure (IOP). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study in the UK Biobank and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohorts. PARTICIPANTS: We included 94 323 participants from the UK Biobank (mean age, 57 years) and 6230 participants from the EPIC-Norfolk (mean age, 68 years) cohorts with data on TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, and triglycerides collected between 2006 and 2009. METHODS: Multivariate linear regression adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, anthropometric, medical, and ophthalmic covariables was used to examine the associations of serum lipids with corneal-compensated IOP (IOPcc). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Corneal-compensated IOP. RESULTS: Higher levels of TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C were associated independently with higher IOPcc in both cohorts after adjustment for key demographic, medical, and lifestyle factors. For each 1-standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C, IOPcc was higher by 0.09 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06-0.11 mmHg; P < 0.001), 0.11 mmHg (95% CI, 0.08-0.13 mmHg; P < 0.001), and 0.07 mmHg (95% CI, 0.05-0.09 mmHg; P < 0.001), respectively, in the UK Biobank cohort. In the EPIC-Norfolk cohort, each 1-standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C was associated with a higher IOPcc by 0.19 mmHg (95% CI, 0.07-0.31 mmHg; P = 0.001), 0.14 mmHg (95% CI, 0.03-0.25 mmHg; P = 0.016), and 0.17 mmHg (95% CI, 0.06-0.29 mmHg; P = 0.003). An inverse association between triglyceride levels and IOP in the UK Biobank (-0.05 mmHg; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.03; P < 0.001) was not replicated in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort (P = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that serum TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C are associated positively with IOP in 2 United Kingdom cohorts and that triglyceride levels may be associated negatively. Future research is required to assess whether these associations are causal in nature.

Face Validity of Observed Meal Patterns Reported with 7-Day Diet Diaries in a Large Population-Based Cohort Using Diurnal Variation in Concentration Biomarkers of Dietary Intake.

In a cross-sectional analysis of a population-based cohort (United Kingdom, N = 21,318, 1993-1998), we studied how associations between meal patterns and non-fasting triglyceride and glucose concentrations were influenced by the hour of day at which the blood sample was collected to ascertain face validity of reported meal patterns, as well as the influence of reporting bias (assessed using formula of energy expenditure) on this association. Meal size (i.e., reported energy content), mealtime and meal frequency were reported using pre-structured 7-day diet diaries. In ANCOVA, sex-specific means of biomarker concentrations were calculated by hour of blood sample collection for quartiles of reported energy intake at breakfast, lunch and dinner (meal size). Significant interactions were observed between breakfast size, sampling time and triglyceride concentrations and between lunch size, sampling time and triglyceride, as well as glucose concentrations. Those skipping breakfast had the lowest triglyceride concentrations in the morning and those skipping lunch had the lowest triglyceride and glucose concentrations in the afternoon, especially among acceptable energy reporters. Eating and drinking occasion frequency was weakly associated with glucose concentrations in women and positively associated with triglyceride concentrations in both sexes; stronger associations were observed for larger vs. smaller meals and among acceptable energy reporters. Associations between meal patterns and concentration biomarkers can be observed when accounting for diurnal variation and underreporting. These findings support the use of 7-day diet diaries for studying associations between meal patterns and health.

Description of the updated nutrition calculation of the Oxford WebQ questionnaire and comparison with the previous version among 207,144 participants in UK Biobank.

PURPOSE: The Oxford WebQ is a web-based 24-h dietary assessment method which has been used in UK Biobank and other large prospective studies. The food composition table used to calculate nutrient intakes has recently been replaced with the UK Nutrient Databank, which has food composition data closer in time to when participants completed the questionnaire, and new dietary variables were incorporated. Here we describe the updated version of the Oxford WebQ questionnaire nutrient calculation, and compare nutrient intakes with the previous version used. METHODS: 207,144 UK Biobank participants completed ≥ 1 Oxford WebQs, and means and standard deviations of nutrient intakes were averaged for all completed 24-h dietary assessments. Spearman correlations and weighted kappa statistics were used to compare the re-classification and agreement of nutrient intakes between the two versions. RESULTS: 35 new nutrients were incorporated in the updated version. Compared to the previous version, most nutrients were very similar in the updated version except for a few nutrients which showed a difference of > 10%: lower with the new version for trans-fat (- 20%), and vitamin C (- 15%), but higher for retinol (+ 42%), vitamin D (+ 26%) and vitamin E (+ 20%). Most participants were in the same (> 60%) or adjacent (> 90%) quintile of intake for the two versions. Except for trans-fat (r = 0.58, κ = 0.42), very high correlations were found between the nutrients calculated using the two versions (r > 0.79 and κ > 0.60). CONCLUSION: Small absolute differences in nutrient intakes were observed between the two versions, and the ranking of individuals was minimally affected, except for trans-fat.

Describing a new food group classification system for UK biobank: analysis of food groups and sources of macro- and micronutrients in 208,200 participants.

PURPOSE: The UK Biobank study collected detailed dietary data using a web-based self-administered 24 h assessment tool, the Oxford WebQ. We aimed to describe a comprehensive food grouping system for this questionnaire and to report dietary intakes and key sources of selected nutrients by sex and education. METHODS: Participants with at least one valid 24-h questionnaire were included (n = 208,200). Dietary data were grouped based on the presence of nutrients as well as culinary use, processing, and plant/animal origin. For each food group, we calculated the contribution to energy intake, key macronutrients, and micronutrients. We also identified the top contributors to energy intake, free sugars and saturated fat by sex and education. RESULTS: From the 93 food groups, the top five contributors to energy intake (in descending order) were: desserts/cakes/pastries; white bread; white pasta/rice; bananas/other fruit; semi-skimmed milk. Wine, beer, and fruit juices were the top beverage contributors to overall energy intake. Biscuits, and desserts/cakes/pastries were the highest contributors to free sugars, total fat, and saturated fat intakes, but also contributed to the calcium and iron intakes. Top contributors to energy, saturated fat, and free sugars were broadly similar by sex and education category, with small differences in average nutrient intakes across the population. CONCLUSION: This new food classification system will support the growing interest in the associations between food groups and health outcomes and the development of food-based dietary guidelines. Food group variables will be available to all users of the UK Biobank WebQ questionnaire.

Intraocular Pressure, Glaucoma, and Dietary Caffeine Consumption: A Gene-Diet Interaction Study from the UK Biobank.

PURPOSE: We examined the association of habitual caffeine intake with intraocular pressure (IOP) and glaucoma and whether genetic predisposition to higher IOP modified these associations. We also assessed whether genetic predisposition to higher coffee consumption was related to IOP. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study in the UK Biobank. PARTICIPANTS: We included 121 374 participants (baseline ages, 39-73 years) with data on coffee and tea intake (collected 2006-2010) and corneal-compensated IOP measurements in 2009. In a subset of 77 906 participants with up to 5 web-based 24-hour-recall food frequency questionnaires (2009-2012), we evaluated total caffeine intake. We also assessed the same relationships with glaucoma (9286 cases and 189 763 controls). METHODS: We evaluated multivariable-adjusted associations with IOP using linear regression and with glaucoma using logistic regression. For both outcomes, we examined gene-diet interactions using a polygenic risk score (PRS) that combined the effects of 111 genetic variants associated with IOP. We also performed Mendelian randomization using 8 genetic variants associated with coffee intake to assess potential causal effects of coffee consumption on IOP. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Intraocular pressure and glaucoma. RESULTS: Mendelian randomization analysis did not support a causal effect of coffee drinking on IOP (P > 0.1). Greater caffeine intake was associated weakly with lower IOP: the highest (≥232 mg/day) versus lowest (<87 mg/day) caffeine consumption was associated with a 0.10-mmHg lower IOP (Ptrend = 0.01). However, the IOP PRS modified this association: among those in the highest IOP PRS quartile, consuming > 480 mg/day versus < 80 mg/day was associated with a 0.35-mmHg higher IOP (Pinteraction = 0.01). The relationship between caffeine intake and glaucoma was null (P ≥ 0.1). However, the IOP PRS also modified this relationship: compared with those in the lowest IOP PRS quartile consuming no caffeine, those in the highest IOP PRS quartile consuming ≥ 321 mg/day showed a 3.90-fold higher glaucoma prevalence (Pinteraction = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: Habitual caffeine consumption was associated weakly with lower IOP, and the association between caffeine consumption and glaucoma was null. However, among participants with the strongest genetic predisposition to elevated IOP, greater caffeine consumption was associated with higher IOP and higher glaucoma prevalence.

Biomarker-estimated flavan-3-ol intake is associated with lower blood pressure in cross-sectional analysis in EPIC Norfolk.

Flavan-3-ols are a group of bioactive compounds that have been shown to improve vascular function in intervention studies. They are therefore of great interest for the development of dietary recommendation for the prevention of cardio-vascular diseases. However, there are currently no reliable data from observational studies, as the high variability in the flavan-3-ol content of food makes it difficult to estimate actual intake without nutritional biomarkers. In this study, we investigated cross-sectional associations between biomarker-estimated flavan-3-ol intake and blood pressure and other CVD risk markers, as well as longitudinal associations with CVD risk in 25,618 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk cohort. High flavan-3-ol intake, achievable as part of an habitual diet, was associated with a significantly lower systolic blood pressure (- 1.9 (- 2.7; - 1.1) mmHg in men and - 2.5 (- 3.3; - 1.8) mmHg in women; lowest vs highest decile of biomarker), comparable to adherence to a Mediterranean Diet or moderate salt reduction. Subgroup analyses showed that hypertensive participants had stronger inverse association between flavan-3-ol biomarker and systolic blood pressure when compared to normotensive participants. Flavanol intake could therefore have a role in the maintenance of cardiovascular health on a population scale.

Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Measures of abdominal adiposity are strongly associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, data are limited and conflicting regarding the consequences of changes in body fat distribution. The main aims of this paper are to investigate the association between changes in waist circumference (WC) and all-cause and CVD mortality and to examine these changes in relation to concurrent changes in weight. METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk) study recruited 25,639 participants between 1993 and 1997, aged 39-79, a number of whom also attended a second examination (1998-2000), and were followed up to 2016 for mortality. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they had WC, weight and height measurements at both time-points; those with a self-reported history of CVD or cancer, body mass index < 18.5 kg/m2 or missing data on covariates were excluded, leaving 12,337 participants for analyses. The median (IQR) follow-up time was 16.4 (15.7, 17.2) years. Hazard Ratios (HRs) for all-cause (2866 deaths) and CVD mortality (822 deaths), by categories of WC change, were determined using Cox proportional hazards analyses. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustment, the HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality for men and women with a WC gain (WCG) >  5 cm were 1.51 (1.29-1.75) and 1.25 (1.06-1.46) respectively. For CVD mortality in men and women with a WCG >  5 cm, the HRs were 1.84 (1.39-2.43) and 1.15 (0.85-1.55) respectively. In analyses of concurrent changes in WC and weight, the greatest risk (HRs) (95% CIs) in men occurred with weight loss and WCG: 1.80 (1.13-2.86) for all-cause and 2.22 (1.03-4.82) for CVD mortality. In women, the greatest risk for both all-cause (HR 1.50 (1.16-1.95)) and CVD mortality (HR 1.81 (1.15-2.85)) was observed in those with weight loss and maintenance of WC (WCM). CONCLUSIONS: Objectively measured WCG > 5 cm, was associated with subsequent higher total mortality risk and higher CVD mortality risk in men. Interventions focusing on preventing increase in central adiposity rather than lowering weight per se in later life may potentially have greater health benefits.

Longitudinal analysis of loneliness and inflammation at older ages: English longitudinal study of ageing.

Loneliness has been associated with adverse health outcomes, including age-related diseases with an inflammatory etiology such as cardiovascular disease. We aimed to identify potential biological pathways linking loneliness with morbidity and mortality by examining associations of loneliness with biomarkers. Participants in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (n = 3239) aged 50 years or older with an average age of 64 years, provided data in waves 4 (2008/2009) and 6 (2012/2013). Linear regression conditional change models had three outcomes: C reactive protein (CRP) measured in mg/L (log transformed), fibrinogen in g/L and ferritin in g/dL. In men, the onset of loneliness indicated by answering 'no' at wave 4 and 'yes' at wave 6 to question "Much of the time during the past week, you felt lonely?" was associated with a statistically significant increase in levels of CRP (ß = 0.36, 95% confidence interval (0.09 to 0.62)), plasma fibrinogen (0.18 (0.04 to 0.31)) and ferritin (41.04 (6.58 to 75.50)), after full adjustment. A statistically significant increase in CRP in men was also observed for onset of loneliness assessed with the question "How often do you feel lonely?" (0.20 (0.03 to 0.38)). These associations were not mediated by depressive symptoms. Persistent loneliness (loneliness experienced at both baseline and follow-up) assessed using the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) loneliness scale was associated with an increase in CRP (0.11 (0.004 to 0.22)) among men. Associations of the two latter loneliness measures with fibrinogen and ferritin were mainly null. Among women, the only statistically significant association was for persistent loneliness (loneliness at both waves) identified by question "Much of the time during the past week, you felt lonely?" with a reduction in levels of ferritin (-20.62 (-39.78 to -1.46)). Men may be more susceptible to loneliness-associated disease risks signaled by biological changes, including systemic inflammation. Combined social and targeted medical interventions may help to reduce health risks associated with loneliness.

Mediterranean diet adherence and cognitive function in older UK adults: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) Study.

BACKGROUND: In Mediterranean countries, adherence to a traditional Mediterranean dietary pattern (MedDiet) is associated with better cognitive function and reduced dementia risk. It is unclear if similar benefits exist in non-Mediterranean regions. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to examine associations between MedDiet adherence and cognitive function in an older UK population and to investigate whether associations differed between individuals with high compared with low cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS: We conducted an analysis in 8009 older individuals with dietary data at Health Check 1 (1993-1997) and cognitive function data at Health Check 3 (2006-2011) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk). Associations were explored between MedDiet adherence and global and domain-specific cognitive test scores and risk of poor cognitive performance in the entire cohort, and when stratified according to CVD risk status. RESULTS: Higher MedDiet adherence defined by the Pyramid MedDiet score was associated with better global cognition (ß ± SE = -0.012 ± 0.002; P < 0.001), verbal episodic memory (ß ± SE = -0.009 ± 0.002; P < 0.001), and simple processing speed (ß ± SE = -0.002 ± 0.001; P = 0.013). Lower risk of poor verbal episodic memory (OR: 0.784; 95% CI: 0.641, 0.959; P = 0.018), complex processing speed (OR: 0.739; 95% CI: 0.601, 0.907; P = 0.004), and prospective memory (OR: 0.841; 95% CI: 0.724, 0.977; P = 0.023) was also observed for the highest compared with the lowest Pyramid MedDiet tertiles. The effect of a 1-point increase in Pyramid score on global cognitive function was equivalent to 1.7 fewer years of cognitive aging. MedDiet adherence defined by the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS) score (mapped through the use of both binary and continuous scoring) showed similar, albeit less consistent, associations. In stratified analyses, associations were evident in individuals at higher CVD risk only (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Higher adherence to the MedDiet is associated with better cognitive function and lower risk of poor cognition in older UK adults. This evidence underpins the development of interventions to enhance MedDiet adherence, particularly in individuals at higher CVD risk, aiming to reduce the risk of age-related cognitive decline in non-Mediterranean populations.

FEV1 and total Cardiovascular mortality and morbidity over an 18 years follow-up Population-Based Prospective EPIC-NORFOLK Study.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to determine the association between forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and subsequent fatal and non-fatal events in a general population. METHODS: The Norfolk (UK) based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk) recruited 25,639 participants between 1993 and 1997. FEV1 measured by portable spirometry, was categorized into sex-specific quintiles. Mortality and morbidity from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and respiratory disease were collected from 1997 up to 2015. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used with adjustment for socio-economic factors, physical activity and co-morbidities. RESULTS: Mean age of the population was 58.7 ± 9.3 years, mean FEV1 for men was 294± 74 cL/s and 214± 52 cL/s for women. The adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality for participants in the highest fifth of the FEV1 category was 0.63 (0.52, 0.76) for men and 0.62 (0.51, 0.76) for women compared to the lowest quintile. Adjusted HRs for every 70 cL/s increase in FEV1 among men and women were 0.77 (p < 0.001) and 0.68 (p < 0.001) for total mortality, 0.85 (p<0.001) and 0.77 (p<0.001) for CVD and 0.52 (p <0.001) and 0.42 (p <0.001) for respiratory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with higher FEV1 levels had a lower risk of CVD and all-cause mortality. Measuring the FEV1 with a portable handheld spirometry measurement may be used as a surrogate marker for cardiovascular risk. Every effort should be made to identify those with poorer lung function even in the absence of cardiovascular disease as they are at greater risk of total and CV mortality.

Correcting for measurement error in fractional polynomial models using Bayesian modelling and regression calibration, with an application to alcohol and mortality.

Exposure measurement error can result in a biased estimate of the association between an exposure and outcome. When the exposure-outcome relationship is linear on the appropriate scale (e.g. linear, logistic) and the measurement error is classical, that is the result of random noise, the result is attenuation of the effect. When the relationship is non-linear, measurement error distorts the true shape of the association. Regression calibration is a commonly used method for correcting for measurement error, in which each individual's unknown true exposure in the outcome regression model is replaced by its expectation conditional on the error-prone measure and any fully measured covariates. Regression calibration is simple to execute when the exposure is untransformed in the linear predictor of the outcome regression model, but less straightforward when non-linear transformations of the exposure are used. We describe a method for applying regression calibration in models in which a non-linear association is modelled by transforming the exposure using a fractional polynomial model. It is shown that taking a Bayesian estimation approach is advantageous. By use of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, one can sample from the distribution of the true exposure for each individual. Transformations of the sampled values can then be performed directly and used to find the expectation of the transformed exposure required for regression calibration. A simulation study shows that the proposed approach performs well. We apply the method to investigate the relationship between usual alcohol intake and subsequent all-cause mortality using an error model that adjusts for the episodic nature of alcohol consumption.