Cohort profile: The Obesity and Disease Development Sweden (ODDS) study, a pooled cohort.

PURPOSE: The Obesity and Disease Development Sweden (ODDS) study was designed to create a large cohort to study body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and changes in weight and WC, in relation to morbidity and mortality. PARTICIPANTS: ODDS includes 4 295 859 individuals, 2 165 048 men and 2 130 811 women, in Swedish cohorts and national registers with information on weight assessed once (2 555 098 individuals) or more (1 740 761 individuals), in total constituting 7 733 901 weight assessments at the age of 17-103 years in 1963-2020 (recalled weight as of 1911). Information on WC is available in 152 089 men and 212 658 women, out of whom 108 795 have repeated information on WC (in total 512 273 assessments). Information on morbidity and mortality was retrieved from national registers, with follow-up until the end of 2019-2021, varying between the registers. FINDINGS TO DATE: Among all weight assessments (of which 85% are objectively measured), the median year, age and BMI (IQR) is 1985 (1977-1994) in men and 2001 (1991-2010) in women, age 19 (18-40) years in men and 30 (26-36) years in women and BMI 22.9 (20.9-25.4) kg/m2 in men and 23.2 (21.2-26.1) kg/m2 in women. Normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m2) is present in 67% of assessments in men and 64% in women and obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m2) in 5% of assessments in men and 10% in women. The median (IQR) follow-up time from the first objectively measured or self-reported current weight assessment until emigration, death or end of follow-up is 31.4 (21.8-40.8) years in men and 19.6 (9.3-29.0) years in women. During follow-up, 283 244 men and 123 457 women died. FUTURE PLANS: The large sample size and long follow-up of the ODDS Study will provide robust results on anthropometric measures in relation to risk of common diseases and causes of deaths, and novel findings in subgroups and rarer outcomes.

Time trends of the association of body mass index with mortality in 3.5 million young Swedish adults.

PURPOSE: We investigated time trends of the obesity-mortality association, accounting for age, sex, and cause-specific deaths. METHODS: We analysed pooled nationwide data in Sweden for 3,472,310 individuals aged 17-39 years at baseline in 1963-2016. Cox regression and flexible parametric survival models investigated BMI-mortality associations in sub-groups of sex and baseline calendar years (men: <1975, 1975-1985, ≥1985 and women: <1985, 1985-1994, ≥1995). RESULTS: Comparing men with obesity vs. normal weight, all-cause and "other-cause" mortality associations decreased over periods; HR (95% CI) 1.92 (1.83-2.01) and 1.70 (1.58-1.82) for all-cause and 1.72 (1.58-1.87) and 1.40 (1.28-1.53) for "other-cause" mortality in <1975 and ≥1985, but increased for CVD mortality; HR 2.71 (2.51-2.94) and 3.91 (3.37-4.53). Higher age at death before 1975 coincided with more obesity-related deaths at higher ages. Furthermore, the all-cause mortality association for different ages in men showed no clear differences between periods (p-interaction=0.09), suggesting no calendar effect after accounting for attained age. Similar, but less pronounced, results were observed in women. Associations with cancer mortality showed no clear trends in men or in women. CONCLUSIONS: Accounting for differences in age and death causes between calendar periods when investigating BMI-mortality time trends may avoid misinterpreting the risks associated with obesity over time.

Nondipping blood pressure pattern predicts cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with atherosclerotic peripheral vascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with peripheral vascular disease (PVD) are often underdiagnosed and undertreated. Nocturnal nondipping blood pressure (BP) pattern, as diagnosed by ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), is associated with increased cardiovascular risk, but has not been studied in patients with PVD. We aimed to investigate if a nondipping BP pattern predicts cardiovascular events or all-cause death in outpatients with PVD. METHODS: Consecutive outpatients with carotid or lower-extremity PVD were examined with 24-hour ABPM (n = 396). Nondipping was defined as a < 10% fall in systolic BP level during night-time. We used Cox regression models adjusting for potential confounders. We also evaluated the incremental prognostic value of dipping status in the COPART risk score. Our primary composite outcome was cardiovascular events or all-cause death. RESULTS: In the cohort (mean age 70; 40% women), 137 events occurred during a 5.1-year median follow-up; incident rate of 7.35 events per 100 person-years. Nondipping was significantly associated with outcome (hazard ratio 1.55, 95% CI 1.07-2.26, p = 0.021) in a fully adjusted model. When adding nondipping to the risk markers in the COPART risk score, the model fit significantly improved (χ2 7.91, p < 0.005) and the C-statistic increased from 0.65 to 0.67. CONCLUSION: In a cohort of outpatients with PVD, nondipping was an independent risk factor for future cardiovascular events or mortality and seemed to be a strong predictor in patients with carotid artery disease but not in lower-extremity PVD. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the clinical utility of ABPM for improved prevention in these high-risk patients. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01452165).

Are the results from a multiplex proteomic assay and a conventional immunoassay for NT-proBNP and GDF-15 comparable?

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare absolute plasma concentrations of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) obtained by a conventional immunoassay with the corresponding relative concentrations from a proximity extension assay (PEA) and compare the prognostic impact of the protein levels obtained from these assays. METHODS: We evaluated 437 patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and a population-based cohort of 643 individuals without PAD. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (rho). The discriminatory accuracy of the protein levels to predict future cardiovascular events was analyzed with Cox regression and presented as time-dependent areas under the receiver-operator-characteristic curves (tdAUCs). RESULTS: For NT-proBNP, the two assays correlated with rho 0.93 and 0.93 in the respective cohort. The PEA values leveled off at higher values in both cohorts. The corresponding correlations for GDF-15 were 0.91 and 0.89. At 5 years follow-up, the tdAUCs in the patient cohort were similar for NT-proBNP and GDF-15 regardless of assay used (0.65-0.66). The corresponding tdAUCs in the population-based cohort were between 0.72 and 0.77. CONCLUSION: Except for the highest levels of NT-proBNP, we suggest that PEA data for NT-proBNP and GDF-15 reliably reflects absolute plasma levels and contains similar prognostic information.

Enigma of the cholesterol paradox in acute myocardial infarction: lessons from an 8-year follow-up of all-cause mortality in an age-matched and sex-matched case-control study with controls from the patients' recruitment area.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on long-term all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and controls. DESIGN: Matched case-control study with 8-year follow-up. SETTING: Vastmanland County Hospital, Vasteras, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive patients with AMI admitted to the coronary care unit from March 2005 to May 2010 and age-matched and sex-matched controls from the general population. OUTCOME MEASURES: ACM. RESULTS: Person-year at risk among patients with AMI and controls was 11 667 (cases: 5780 and controls: 5887). During follow-up, 199 patients and 84 controls died, implying 3.4 deaths among patients and 1.4 among controls per 100 person-years at risk. Unadjusted Cox analyses showed significantly increasing mortality by decreasing TC and LDL-C levels in both patients (HR=0.70, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.79, p<0.001, and HR=0.64, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.74, p<0.001) and controls (HR=0.73, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.89, p=0.002, and HR=0.74, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.93, p=0.010). After adjusting for clinical variables, the results for the patients remained significant. Cox analyses of the relations between mortality and TC and LDL-C below and above their respective medians revealed the following pattern. PATIENTS: below medians were TC and LDL-C levels significantly inversely related to mortality; above medians there were no relations with mortality. CONTROLS: below medians were TC and LDL-C levels significantly inversely related to mortality; above medians were LDL-C levels significantly positively related to mortality. Mean LDL-C level in patients with blood sampled >12 hours after symptom onset was 0.41 mmol/L lower than that in patients with blood sampled ≤12 hours (p=0.030). This LDL-C decrease was reasonably caused by ongoing AMI and reflects the difference in LDL-C levels between patients and controls. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AMI, lower TC and LDL-C levels independently predict higher ACM. In their controls, LDL-C levels above the median independently predict higher ACM. This study adds to the body of evidence supporting the existence of a cholesterol paradox.

Blood pressure screening in midlife aids in prediction of dementia later in life.

BACKGROUND: There is substantial evidence that midlife hypertension is a risk factor for late life dementia. Our aim was to investigate if even high blood pressure at a single timepoint in midlife can predict an increased risk for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), or vascular dementia (VaD) later in life. METHODS: The community-based study population comprised 30,102 dementia-free individuals from the Westmannia Cardiovascular Risk Factors Study. The participants were aged 40 or 50 years when the health examination took place in 1990-2000. Diagnose registers from both hospitals and primary healthcare centers were used to identify individuals who after inclusion to the study developed dementia. The association between midlife high blood pressure (defined as systolic blood pressure >140 and/or diastolic blood pressure >90 mmHg) at a single timepoint and dementia was adjusted for age, gender, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose, education, smoking, and physical activity level. Multivariate binary cox regression analyses were used. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up time of 24 years resulting in 662,244 person/years, 761 (2.5%) individuals had been diagnosed with dementia. Midlife high blood pressure at a single timepoint predicted all-cause dementia (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.45) and VaD (HR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.47-3.00) but not AD (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 0.81-1.38). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that even midlife high blood pressure at a single timepoint predicts all-cause dementia and more than doubles the risk for VaD later in life independently of established confounders. Even though there was no such association with AD, this strengthens the importance of midlife health examinations in order to identify individuals with hypertension and initiate treatment.

Screening of biomarkers for prediction of multisite artery disease in patients with recent myocardial infarction.

A few studies have examined biomarkers in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) and peripheral artery disease (PAD), i.e. multisite artery disease (MSAD). The aim of the study was firstly, to associate biomarkers with the occurrence of PAD/MSAD and secondly, if those can, in addition to clinical characteristics, identify MI patients with MSAD.In two prospectively observational studies including unselected patients with recent MI, PAD was defined as an abnormal ankle-brachial index (ABI) score (<0.9 or >1.4). The proximity extension assay (PEA) technique was used, simultaneously analyzing 92 biomarkers with association to cardiovascular disease. Biomarkers were tested for univariate associations with PAD. Random forest was used to identify biomarkers with a higher association to PAD. The additional discriminatory accuracy of adding biomarkers to clinical characteristics was analyzed by the c-statistics. Nine biomarkers were identified as significantly associated with MSAD/PAD in the primary patient cohort, analyzed early after the MI. In the prediction analysis, six biomarkers were identified associated with PAD. Three of these; Tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR-1), Tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (TNFR-2) and Growth Differentiation Factor 15 (GDF-15) improved c-statistics when added to clinical characteristics from 0.683 (95% CI 0.610-0.756) to 0.715 (95% CI 0.645-0.784) in the primary patient cohort with a similar result, 0.729 (95% CI 0.687-0.770) to 0.752 (95% CI 0.771-0.792) in the secondary patient cohort. Biomarkers associated with inflammatory pathways are associated with MSAD in MI patients. Three biomarkers of 92; TNFR-1, TNFR-2 and GDF-15, in this exploratory added information in the prediction of MSAD and emphasis the importance of further studies.

Poorly controlled ambulatory blood pressure in outpatients with peripheral arterial disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) are generally less intensively managed than patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), despite that their risk of complications is believed to be equivalent. Identification of PAD patients at risk of poorly controlled blood pressure (BP) could lead to improved treatment, thus lowering the risk of cardiovascular (CV) complications. We aimed to describe the prevalence of poorly controlled cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, focusing on BP, in outpatients with PAD diagnosed in a vascular ultrasound laboratory. METHODS: Consecutive outpatients with carotid and/or lower extremity PAD were included (n = 402) and examined with blood sampling, clinical BP, and 24-h ambulatory BP measurements. A poorly controlled clinical BP was defined as ≥140/90 mmHg, ambulatory BP ≥130/80 mmHg, low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol level ≥2.5 mmol/L, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level >53 mmol/mol in those with diabetes. RESULTS: Most of the patients had poorly controlled clinical (76.6%) and ambulatory BP (51.7%) profiles. Antihypertensive medications were prescribed in 84% of the patients. However, >40% of them used only 0-1 medication, and <25% of them used three or more agents. Clinical BP, a low number of medications, body mass index, and the presence of diabetes independently predicted a poorly controlled ambulatory BP. Nearly one-third of the patients were smokers, and most of the cohort had an LDL-cholesterol level of ≥2.5 mmol/L. An HbA1c level of >53 mmol/mol was present in 55% of diabetic patients. CONCLUSION: Poorly controlled clinical and ambulatory systolic BP profiles were common. In addition, suboptimal control of other important CV risk factors was detected. The findings of this study highlight the need for better preventive efforts against CV risk factors in outpatients with PAD.

Plasma Protein Profile of Carotid Artery Atherosclerosis and Atherosclerotic Outcomes: Meta-Analyses and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

[Figure: see text].

Plasma proteomics and lung function in four community-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Underlying mechanism leading to impaired lung function are incompletely understood. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether protein profiling can provide novel insights into mechanisms leading to impaired lung function. METHODS: We used four community-based studies (n = 2552) to investigate associations between 79 cardiovascular/inflammatory proteins and forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted (FEV1%) assessed by spirometry. We divided the cohorts into discovery and replication samples and used risk factor-adjusted linear regression corrected for multiple comparison (false discovery rate of 5%). We performed Mendelian randomization analyses using genetic and spirometry data from the UK Biobank (n = 421,986) to assess causality. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In cross-sectional analysis, 22 proteins were associated with lower FEV1% in both the discovery and replication sample, regardless of stratification by smoking status. The combined proteomic data cumulatively explained 5% of the variation in FEV1%. In longitudinal analyses (n = 681), higher plasma levels of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) predicted a more rapid 5-year decline in lung function (change in FEV1% per standard deviation of protein level -1.4, (95% CI, -2.5 to -0.3) for GDF-15, and -0.8, (95% CI, -1.5 to -0.2) for IL-6. Mendelian randomization analysis in UK-biobank provided support for a causal effect of increased GDF-15 levels and reduced FEV1%. CONCLUSIONS: Our combined approach identified GDF-15 as a potential causal factor in the development of impaired lung function in the general population. These findings encourage additional studies evaluating the role of GDF-15 as a causal factor for impaired lung function.

The association between plasma proteomics and incident cardiovascular disease identifies MMP-12 as a promising cardiovascular risk marker in patients with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous proteomics efforts in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have predominantly evaluated urinary protein levels. Therefore, our aim was to investigate the association between plasma levels of 80 cardiovascular disease-related proteins and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with CKD. METHODS: Individuals with CKD stages 3-5 (eGFR below 60 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2) from three community-based cohorts (PIVUS, ULSAM, SAVA), one diabetes cohort (CARDIPP) and one cohort with peripheral artery disease patients (PADVA) with information on 80 plasma protein biomarkers, assessed with a proximity extension assay, and follow-up data on incident MACE, were used as discovery sample. To validate findings and to asses generalizability to patients with CKD in clinical practice, an outpatient CKD-cohort (Malnutrition, Inflammation and Vascular Calcification (MIVC)) was used as replication sample. RESULTS: In the discovery sample (total n = 1316), 249 individuals experienced MACE during 7.0 ± 2.9 years (range 0.005-12.9) of follow-up, and in the replication sample, 71 MACE events in 283 individuals over a mean ± SD change of 2.9 ± 1.2 years (range 0.1-4.0) were documented. Applying Bonferroni correction, 18 proteins were significantly associated with risk of MACE in the discovery cohort, adjusting for age and sex in order of significance, GDF-15, FGF-23, REN, FABP4, IL6, TNF-R1, AGRP, MMP-12, AM, KIM-1, TRAILR2, TNFR2, CTSL1, CSF1, PlGF, CA-125, CCL20 and PAR-1 (p < 0.000625 for all). Only matrix metalloproteinase 12 (MMP-12) was significantly associated with an increased risk of MACE in the replication sample (hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.36, 95% CI (1.07-1.75), p = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Our proteomics analyses identified plasma MMP-12 as a promising cardiovascular risk marker in patients with CKD.

The association between plasma proteomics and incident cardiovascular disease identifies MMP-12 as a promising cardiovascular risk marker in patients with chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous proteomics efforts in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have predominantly evaluated urinary protein levels. Therefore, our aim was to investigate the association between plasma levels of 80 cardiovascular disease-related proteins and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with CKD. METHODS: Individuals with CKD stages 3-5 (eGFR below 60 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2) from three community-based cohorts (PIVUS, ULSAM, SAVA), one diabetes cohort (CARDIPP) and one cohort with peripheral artery disease patients (PADVA) with information on 80 plasma protein biomarkers, assessed with a proximity extension assay, and follow-up data on incident MACE, were used as discovery sample. To validate findings and to asses generalizability to patients with CKD in clinical practice, an outpatient CKD-cohort (Malnutrition, Inflammation and Vascular Calcification (MIVC)) was used as replication sample. RESULTS: In the discovery sample (total n = 1316), 249 individuals experienced MACE during 7.0 ± 2.9 years (range 0.005-12.9) of follow-up, and in the replication sample, 71 MACE events in 283 individuals over a mean ± SD change of 2.9 ± 1.2 years (range 0.1-4.0) were documented. Applying Bonferroni correction, 18 proteins were significantly associated with risk of MACE in the discovery cohort, adjusting for age and sex in order of significance, GDF-15, FGF-23, REN, FABP4, IL6, TNF-R1, AGRP, MMP-12, AM, KIM-1, TRAILR2, TNFR2, CTSL1, CSF1, PlGF, CA-125, CCL20 and PAR-1 (p < 0.000625 for all). Only matrix metalloproteinase 12 (MMP-12) was significantly associated with an increased risk of MACE in the replication sample (hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.36, 95% CI (1.07-1.75), p = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Our proteomics analyses identified plasma MMP-12 as a promising cardiovascular risk marker in patients with CKD.

Targeted multiplex proteomics for prediction of all-cause mortality during long-term follow-up in outpatients with peripheral arterial disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) are at high risk for fatal events. We aimed to investigate the ability among several serum proteins to predict all-cause mortality in outpatients with PAD. METHODS: Consecutive outpatients with carotid and/or lower extremity PAD were included in the discovery cohort (n = 436), and subjects with PAD from a population-based sample in the validation cohort (n = 129). Blood samples were analyzed for 81 proteins by a proximity extension assay. The proteins best predicting incident all-cause mortality were identified using L1-regularized Cox regression. The added value of the identified proteins to clinical risk markers was evaluated by Cox regression models and presented by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curves (AUC). RESULTS: In the discovery cohort (mean age 70 years; 59% men), 195 died (4.8 events per 100 person-years) during a 10.3 years median follow-up. The clinical risk markers generated an AUC of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.65-0.76). The two serum protein biomarkers with best prediction of all-cause mortality were growth differentiation factor 15 and tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2. Adding these proteins to the clinical risk markers significantly improved prediction (p < 0.001) and yielded an AUC of 0.76 (95%CI 0.71-0.80). A higher discriminatory performance was observed in the validation cohort (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.76-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: In a large-sample targeted proteomics assay, we identified two proteins that improved risk prediction beyond the COPART risk score. The use of high-throughput proteomics assays may identify potential biomarkers for improved risk prediction in patients with PAD.

Do self-reported pregnancy complications add to risk evaluation in older women with established cardiovascular disease?

BACKGROUND: In postmenopausal women with established cardiovascular disease (CVD), it is unknown whether a history of pregnancy complications are related to multisite artery disease (MSAD), defined as atherosclerotic lesions in at least two major vascular beds. Pregnancy complications are an established risk factor for CVD. This study aimed to investigate the frequency of pregnancy complications and their association to specific atherosclerotic manifestations and prediction of MSAD in older women with and without CVD. METHODS: In total, 556 women were invited to participate in the study. Of these women 307 reported former pregnancy from a cohort of women with (n = 233) and without CVD (n = 74). The self-reported frequency of pregnancy complications were surveyed retrospectively by a questionnaire that included miscarriage, subfertility, gestational hypertension (GHT) and/or preeclampsia (PE), low birth weight, preterm birth, bleeding in late pregnancy, gestational diabetes mellitus and high birth weight. Three vascular beds were examined, the peripheral, carotid and coronary arteries. RESULTS: The mean age was 67.5 (SD 9.5) years. GHT and/or PE tended to be more common, but not significant, in women with CVD than in women without (20.3% vs 10.8%, p = 0.066). Among women with GHT and/or PE, hypertension later in life were more frequent than in women without (66.7% vs 47.4%, p = 0.010). GHT and/or PE were not associated with specific atherosclerotic manifestations or prediction of MSAD. CONCLUSIONS: In older women with established CVD, pregnancy complications was not associated to specific atherosclerotic manifestations and may not provide additional value to the risk evaluation for MSAD.

Cathepsin D improves the prediction of undetected diabetes in patients with myocardial infarction.

Background: Newer therapeutic agents for type 2 diabetes mellitus can improve cardiovascular outcomes, but diabetes remains underdiagnosed in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). We sought to identify proteomic markers of undetected dysglycaemia (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, or diabetes mellitus) to improve the identification of patients at highest risk for diabetes. Materials and methods: In this prospective cohort, 626 patients without known diabetes underwent oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) during admission for MI. Proximity extension assay was used to measure 81 biomarkers. Multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for risk factors, was used to evaluate the association of biomarkers with dysglycaemia. Subsequently, lasso regression was performed in a 2/3 training set to identify proteomic biomarkers with prognostic value for dysglycaemia, when added to risk factors, fasting plasma glucose, and glycated haemoglobin A1c. Determination of discriminatory ability was performed in a 1/3 test set. Results: In total, 401/626 patients (64.1%) met the criteria for dysglycaemia. Using multivariable logistic regression, cathepsin D had the strongest association with dysglycaemia. Lasso regression selected seven markers, including cathepsin D, that improved prediction of dysglycaemia (area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0.848 increased to 0.863). In patients with normal fasting plasma glucose, only cathepsin D was selected (AUC 0.699 increased to 0.704). Conclusions: Newly detected dysglycaemia, including manifest diabetes, is common in patients with acute MI. Cathepsin D improved the prediction of dysglycaemia, which may be helpful in the a priori risk determination of diabetes as a motivation for confirmatory OGTT.

Risk factors for subarachnoid haemorrhage: a nationwide cohort of 950 000 adults.

BACKGROUND: Subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is a devastating disease, with high mortality rate and substantial disability among survivors. Its causes are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate risk factors for SAH using a novel nationwide cohort consortium. METHODS: We obtained individual participant data of 949 683 persons (330 334 women) between 25 and 90 years old, with no history of SAH at baseline, from 21 population-based cohorts. Outcomes were obtained from the Swedish Patient and Causes of Death Registries. RESULTS: During 13 704 959 person-years of follow-up, 2659 cases of first-ever fatal or non-fatal SAH occurred, with an age-standardized incidence rate of 9.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) (7.4-10.6)/100 000 person-years] in men and 13.8 [(11.4-16.2)/100 000 person-years] in women. The incidence rate increased exponentially with higher age. In multivariable-adjusted Poisson models, marked sex interactions for current smoking and body mass index (BMI) were observed. Current smoking conferred a rate ratio (RR) of 2.24 (95% CI 1.95-2.57) in women and 1.62 (1.47-1.79) in men. One standard deviation higher BMI was associated with an RR of 0.86 (0.81-0.92) in women and 1.02 (0.96-1.08) in men. Higher blood pressure and lower education level were also associated with higher risk of SAH. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of SAH is 45% higher in women than in men, with substantial sex differences in risk factor strengths. In particular, a markedly stronger adverse effect of smoking in women may motivate targeted public health initiatives.

Rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium.

We herein outline the rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium, aiming to facilitate greater use of Swedish cohorts for world-class research. Coordination of all Swedish prospective population-based cohorts in a common infrastructure would enable more precise research findings and facilitate research on rare exposures and outcomes, leading to better utilization of study participants' data, better return of funders' investments, and higher benefit to patients and populations. We motivate the proposed infrastructure partly by lessons learned from a pilot study encompassing data from 21 cohorts. We envisage a standing Swedish cohort consortium that would drive development of epidemiological research methods and strengthen the Swedish as well as international epidemiological competence, community, and competitiveness.

Basic Anthropometric Measures in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients and Individually Sex- and Age-Matched Controls from the General Population.

We compared weight, height, waist and hip circumferences (hip), body mass index (BMI), and waist-to-hip ratio in acute myocardial infarction (MI) patients and individually sex- and age-matched control subjects from the general population in the catchment area of the patients and predicted the risk of MI status by these basic anthropometric measures. The study cohort comprised 748 patients ≤80 years of age with acute MI from a major Swedish cardiac center and their individually sex- and age-matched controls. The analyses were stratified for sex and age (≤65/≥66 years). Risk of MI was assessed by conditional logistic regression. A narrow hip in men ≥66 years was the single strongest risk factor of MI among the anthropometric measures. The combination of hip and weight was particularly efficient in discriminating men ≥66 years with MI from their controls (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve = 0.82). In men ≤65 years, the best combination was hip, BMI, and height (AUROC = 0.79). In women ≥66 years, the best discriminatory model contained only waist-to-hip ratio (AUROC = 0.67), whereas in women ≤65 years, the best combination was hip and BMI (AUROC = 0.68). A narrow hip reasonably reflects small gluteal muscles. This finding might suggest an association between MI and sarcopenia, possibly related to deficiencies in physical activity and nutrition.

Multiplex proteomics for prediction of major cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes

ABSTRACT: Aims/hypothesis Multiplex proteomics could improve understanding and risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in type 2 diabetes. This study assessed 80 cardiovascular and inflammatory proteins for biomarker discovery and prediction of MACE in type 2 diabetes. Methods We combined data from six prospective epidemiological studies of 30­77-year-old individuals with type 2 diabetes in whom 80 circulating proteins were measured by proximity extension assay. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used in a discovery/replication design to identify biomarkers for incident MACE. We used gradient-boosted machine learning and lasso regularized Cox regression in a random 75% training subsample to assess whether adding proteins to risk factors included in the Swedish National Diabetes Register risk model would improve the prediction of MACE in the separate 25% test subsample. Results Of 1211 adults with type 2 diabetes (32% women), 211 experienced a MACE over a mean (±SD) of 6.4 ± 2.3 years. We replicated associations (<5% false discovery rate) between risk of MACE and eight proteins: matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)- 12, IL-27 subunit α (IL-27a), kidney injury molecule (KIM)-1, fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23, protein S100-A12, TNF receptor (TNFR)-1, TNFR-2 and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor (TRAIL-R)2. Addition of the 80-protein assay to established risk factors improved discrimination in the separate test sample from 0.686 (95% CI 0.682, 0.689) to 0.748 (95% CI 0.746, 0.751). A sparse model of 20 added proteins achieved a C statistic of 0.747 (95% CI 0.653, 0.842) in the test sample. Conclusions/interpretation We identified eight protein biomarkers, four of which are novel, for risk of MACE in community residents with type 2 diabetes, and found improved risk prediction by combining multiplex proteomics with an established risk model. Multiprotein arrays could be useful in identifying individuals with type 2 diabetes who are at highest risk of a cardio vascular event.