Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty.

Sociopolitical crises causing uncertainty have accumulated in recent years, providing fertile ground for the emergence of conspiracy ideations. Computational models constitute valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms at play in the formation and rigidification of these unshakeable beliefs. Here, the Circular Inference model was used to capture associations between changes in perceptual inference and the dynamics of conspiracy ideations in times of uncertainty. A bistable perception task and conspiracy belief assessment focused on major sociopolitical events were administered to large populations from three polarized countries. We show that when uncertainty peaks, an overweighting of sensory information is associated with conspiracy ideations. Progressively, this exploration strategy gives way to an exploitation strategy in which increased adherence to conspiracy theories is associated with the amplification of prior information. Overall, the Circular Inference model sheds new light on the possible mechanisms underlying the progressive strengthening of conspiracy theories when individuals face highly uncertain situations.

Relationships between cognitive biases, decision-making, and delusions.

Multiple measures of decision-making under uncertainty (e.g. jumping to conclusions (JTC), bias against disconfirmatory evidence (BADE), win-switch behavior, random exploration) have been associated with delusional thinking in independent studies. Yet, it is unknown whether these variables explain shared or unique variance in delusional thinking, and whether these relationships are specific to paranoia or delusional ideation more broadly. Additionally, the underlying computational mechanisms require further investigation. To investigate these questions, task and self-report data were collected in 88 individuals (46 healthy controls, 42 schizophrenia-spectrum) and included measures of cognitive biases and behavior on probabilistic reversal learning and explore/exploit tasks. Of those, only win-switch rate significantly differed between groups. In regression, reversal learning performance, random exploration, and poor evidence integration during BADE showed significant, independent associations with paranoia. Only self-reported JTC was associated with delusional ideation, controlling for paranoia. Computational parameters increased the proportion of variance explained in paranoia. Overall, decision-making influenced by strong volatility and variability is specifically associated with paranoia, whereas self-reported hasty decision-making is specifically associated with other themes of delusional ideation. These aspects of decision-making under uncertainty may therefore represent distinct cognitive processes that, together, have the potential to worsen delusional thinking across the psychosis spectrum.

Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety.

Generalized anxiety disorder is among the world's most prevalent psychiatric disorders and often manifests as persistent and difficult to control apprehension. Despite its prevalence, there is no integrative, formal model of how anxiety and anxiety disorders arise. Here, we offer a perspective derived from the free energy principle; one that shares similarities with established constructs such as learned helplessness. Our account is simple: anxiety can be formalized as learned uncertainty. A biological system, having had persistent uncertainty in its past, will expect uncertainty in its future, irrespective of whether uncertainty truly persists. Despite our account's intuitive simplicity-which can be illustrated with the mere flip of a coin-it is grounded within the free energy principle and hence situates the formation of anxiety within a broader explanatory framework of biological self-organization and self-evidencing. We conclude that, through conceptualizing anxiety within a framework of working generative models, our perspective might afford novel approaches in the clinical treatment of anxiety and its key symptoms.

Belief Updating and Paranoia in Individuals With Schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Persecutory delusions are among the most common delusions in schizophrenia and represent the extreme end of the paranoia continuum. Paranoia is accompanied by significant worry and distress. Identifying cognitive mechanisms underlying paranoia is critical for advancing treatment. We hypothesized that aberrant belief updating, which is related to paranoia in human and animal models, would also contribute to persecutory beliefs in individuals with schizophrenia. METHODS: Belief updating was assessed in 42 participants with schizophrenia and 44 healthy control participants using a 3-option probabilistic reversal learning task. Hierarchical Gaussian Filter was used to estimate computational parameters of belief updating. Paranoia was measured using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale and the revised Green et al. Paranoid Thoughts Scale. Unusual thought content was measured with the Psychosis Symptom Rating Scale and the Peters et al. Delusions Inventory. Worry was measured using the Dunn Worry Questionnaire. RESULTS: Paranoia was significantly associated with elevated win-switch rate and prior beliefs about volatility both in schizophrenia and across the whole sample. These relationships were specific to paranoia and did not extend to unusual thought content or measures of anxiety. We observed a significant indirect effect of paranoia on the relationship between prior beliefs about volatility and worry. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides evidence that relationships between belief updating parameters and paranoia extend to schizophrenia, may be specific to persecutory beliefs, and contribute to theoretical models implicating worry in the maintenance of persecutory delusions.

Relating Glutamate, Conditioned, and Clinical Hallucinations via 1H-MR Spectroscopy.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Hallucinations may be driven by an excessive influence of prior expectations on current experience. Initial work has supported that contention and implicated the anterior insula in the weighting of prior beliefs. STUDY DESIGN: Here we induce hallucinated tones by associating tones with the presentation of a visual cue. We find that people with schizophrenia who hear voices are more prone to the effect and using computational modeling we show they overweight their prior beliefs. In the same participants, we also measured glutamate levels in anterior insula, anterior cingulate, dorsolateral prefrontal, and auditory cortices, using magnetic resonance spectroscopy. STUDY RESULTS: We found a negative relationship between prior-overweighting and glutamate levels in the insula that was not present for any of the other voxels or parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Through computational psychiatry, we bridge a pathophysiological theory of psychosis (glutamate hypofunction) with a cognitive model of hallucinations (prior-overweighting) with implications for the development of new treatments for hallucinations.

From hallucinations to synaesthesia: A circular inference account of unimodal and multimodal erroneous percepts in clinical and drug-induced psychosis.

Psychedelics distort perception and induce visual and multimodal hallucinations as well as synaesthesia. This is in contradiction with the high prevalence of distressing voices in schizophrenia. Here we introduce a unifying account of unimodal and multimodal erroneous percepts based on circular inference. We show that amplification of top-down predictions (descending loops) leads to an excessive reliance on priors and aberrant levels of integration of the sensory representations, resulting in crossmodal percepts and stronger illusions. By contrast, amplification of bottom-up information (ascending loops) results in overinterpretation of unreliable sensory inputs and high levels of segregation between sensory modalities, bringing about unimodal hallucinations and reduced vulnerability to illusions. We delineate a canonical microcircuit in which layer-specific inhibition controls the propagation of information across hierarchical levels: inhibitory interneurons in the deep layers exert control over priors, removing descending loops. Conversely, inhibition in the supragranular layers counterbalances the effects of the ascending loops. Overall, we put forward a multiscale and transnosographic account of erroneous percepts with important theoretical, conceptual and clinical implications.

Association Between Failures in Perceptual Updating and the Severity of Psychosis in Schizophrenia.

Importance: Recent accounts suggest that delusions and hallucinations may result from alterations in how prior knowledge is integrated with new information, but experimental evidence supporting this idea has been complex and inconsistent. Evidence from a simpler perceptual task would make clear whether psychotic symptoms are associated with overreliance on prior information and impaired updating. Objective: To investigate whether individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (PSZ) and healthy control individuals (HCs) differ in the ability to update their beliefs based on evidence in a relatively simple perceptual paradigm. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study included individuals who met DSM-IV criteria for PSZ and matched HC participants in 2 independent samples. The PSZ group was recruited from the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center, Yale University, and community clinics, and the HC group was recruited from the community. To test perceptual updating, a random dot kinematogram paradigm was implemented in which dots moving coherently in a single direction were mixed with randomly moving dots. On 50% of trials, the direction of coherent motion changed by 90° midway through the trial. Participants were asked to report the direction perceived at the end of the trial. The Peters Delusions Inventory and Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) were used to quantify the severity of positive symptoms. Data were collected from September 2018 to March 2020 and were analyzed from approximately March 2020 to March 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Critical measures included the proportion of responses centered around the initial direction vs the subsequent changed direction and the overall precision of motion perception and reaction times. Results: A total of 48 participants were included in the PSZ group (31 [65%] male; mean [SD] age, 36.56 [9.76] years) and 36 in the HC group (22 [61%] male; mean [SD] age, 35.67 [10.74] years) in the original sample. An independent replication sample included 42 participants in the PSZ group (29 [69%] male; mean [SD] age, 33.98 [11.03] years) and 34 in the HC group (20 [59%] male; mean [SD] age, 34.29 [10.44] years). In line with previous research, patients with PSZ were less precise and had slower reaction times overall. The key finding was that patients with PSZ were significantly more likely (original sample: mean, 27.88 [95% CI, 24.19-31.57]; replication sample: mean, 26.70 [95% CI, 23.53-29.87]) than HC participants (original sample: mean, 18.86 [95% CI, 16.56-21.16]; replication sample: mean, 15.67 [95% CI, 12.61-18.73]) to report the initial motion direction rather than the final one. Moreover, the tendency to report the direction of initial motion correlated with the degree of conviction on the Peters Delusions Inventory (original sample: r = 0.32 [P = .05]; replication sample: r = 0.30 [P = .05]) and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale Reality Distortion score (original sample: r = 0.55 [P = .001]; replication sample: r = 0.35 [P = .03]) and severity of hallucinations (original sample: r = 0.39 [P = .02]; replication sample: r = 0.30 [P = .05]). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this case-control study suggest that the severity of psychotic symptoms is associated with a tendency to overweight initial information over incoming sensory evidence. These results are consistent with predictive coding accounts of the origins of positive symptoms and suggest that deficits in very elementary perceptual updating may be a critical mechanism in psychosis.

Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.

Self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence involve misbeliefs about the self, others, and world. They are often considered mistaken. Here we explore whether they might be adaptive, and further, whether they might be explicable in Bayesian terms. We administered a difficult perceptual judgment task with and without social influence (suggestions from a cooperating or competing partner). Crucially, the social influence was uninformative. We found that participants heeded the suggestions most under the most uncertain conditions and that they did so with high confidence, particularly if they were more paranoid. Model fitting to participant behavior revealed that their prior beliefs changed depending on whether the partner was a collaborator or competitor, however, those beliefs did not differ as a function of paranoia. Instead, paranoia, self-deception, and overconfidence were associated with participants' perceived instability of their own performance. These data are consistent with the idea that self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence flourish under uncertainty, and have their roots in low self-esteem, rather than excessive social concern. The model suggests that spurious beliefs can have value-self-deception is irrational yet can facilitate optimal behavior. This occurs even at the expense of monetary rewards, perhaps explaining why self-deception and paranoia contribute to costly decisions which can spark financial crashes and devastating wars.

Paranoia and belief updating during the COVID-19 crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made the world seem less predictable. Such crises can lead people to feel that others are a threat. Here, we show that the initial phase of the pandemic in 2020 increased individuals' paranoia and made their belief updating more erratic. A proactive lockdown made people's belief updating less capricious. However, state-mandated mask-wearing increased paranoia and induced more erratic behaviour. This was most evident in states where adherence to mask-wearing rules was poor but where rule following is typically more common. Computational analyses of participant behaviour suggested that people with higher paranoia expected the task to be more unstable. People who were more paranoid endorsed conspiracies about mask-wearing and potential vaccines and the QAnon conspiracy theories. These beliefs were associated with erratic task behaviour and changed priors. Taken together, we found that real-world uncertainty increases paranoia and influences laboratory task behaviour.

Paranoia and belief updating during a crisis.

The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has made the world seem unpredictable. During such crises we can experience concerns that others might be against us, culminating perhaps in paranoid conspiracy theories. Here, we investigate paranoia and belief updating in an online sample (N=1,010) in the United States of America (U.S.A). We demonstrate the pandemic increased individuals' self-rated paranoia and rendered their task-based belief updating more erratic. Local lockdown and reopening policies, as well as culture more broadly, markedly influenced participants' belief-updating: an early and sustained lockdown rendered people's belief updating less capricious. Masks are clearly an effective public health measure against COVID-19. However, state-mandated mask wearing increased paranoia and induced more erratic behaviour. Remarkably, this was most evident in those states where adherence to mask wearing rules was poor but where rule following is typically more common. This paranoia may explain the lack of compliance with this simple and effective countermeasure. Computational analyses of participant behaviour suggested that people with higher paranoia expected the task to be more unstable, but at the same time predicted more rewards. In a follow-up study we found people who were more paranoid endorsed conspiracies about mask-wearing and potential vaccines - again, mask attitude and conspiratorial beliefs were associated with erratic task behaviour and changed priors. Future public health responses to the pandemic might leverage these observations, mollifying paranoia and increasing adherence by tempering people's expectations of other's behaviour, and the environment more broadly, and reinforcing compliance.

A Review of Multimodal Hallucinations: Categorization, Assessment, Theoretical Perspectives, and Clinical Recommendations.

Hallucinations can occur in different sensory modalities, both simultaneously and serially in time. They have typically been studied in clinical populations as phenomena occurring in a single sensory modality. Hallucinatory experiences occurring in multiple sensory systems-multimodal hallucinations (MMHs)-are more prevalent than previously thought and may have greater adverse impact than unimodal ones, but they remain relatively underresearched. Here, we review and discuss: (1) the definition and categorization of both serial and simultaneous MMHs, (2) available assessment tools and how they can be improved, and (3) the explanatory power that current hallucination theories have for MMHs. Overall, we suggest that current models need to be updated or developed to account for MMHs and to inform research into the underlying processes of such hallucinatory phenomena. We make recommendations for future research and for clinical practice, including the need for service user involvement and for better assessment tools that can reliably measure MMHs and distinguish them from other related phenomena.

A functional theory of bistable perception based on dynamical circular inference.

When we face ambiguous images, the brain cannot commit to a single percept; instead, it switches between mutually exclusive interpretations every few seconds, a phenomenon known as bistable perception. While neuromechanistic models, e.g., adapting neural populations with lateral inhibition, may account for the dynamics of bistability, a larger question remains unresolved: how this phenomenon informs us on generic perceptual processes in less artificial contexts. Here, we propose that bistable perception is due to our prior beliefs being reverberated in the cortical hierarchy and corrupting the sensory evidence, a phenomenon known as "circular inference". Such circularity could occur in a hierarchical brain where sensory responses trigger activity in higher-level areas but are also modulated by feedback projections from these same areas. We show that in the face of ambiguous sensory stimuli, circular inference can change the dynamics of the perceptual system and turn what should be an integrator of inputs into a bistable attractor switching between two highly trusted interpretations. The model captures various aspects of bistability, including Levelt's laws and the stabilizing effects of intermittent presentation of the stimulus. Since it is related to the generic perceptual inference and belief updating mechanisms, this approach can be used to predict the tendency of individuals to form aberrant beliefs from their bistable perception behavior. Overall, we suggest that feedforward/feedback information loops in hierarchical neural networks, a phenomenon that could lead to psychotic symptoms when overly strong, could also underlie perception in nonclinical populations.

Hallucinations Under Psychedelics and in the Schizophrenia Spectrum: An Interdisciplinary and Multiscale Comparison.

The recent renaissance of psychedelic science has reignited interest in the similarity of drug-induced experiences to those more commonly observed in psychiatric contexts such as the schizophrenia-spectrum. This report from a multidisciplinary working group of the International Consortium on Hallucinations Research (ICHR) addresses this issue, putting special emphasis on hallucinatory experiences. We review evidence collected at different scales of understanding, from pharmacology to brain-imaging, phenomenology and anthropology, highlighting similarities and differences between hallucinations under psychedelics and in the schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. Finally, we attempt to integrate these findings using computational approaches and conclude with recommendations for future research.

Circular inference in bistable perception.

When facing ambiguous images, the brain switches between mutually exclusive interpretations, a phenomenon known as bistable perception. Despite years of research, a consensus on whether bistability is driven primarily by bottom-up or top-down mechanisms has not been achieved. Here, we adopted a Bayesian approach to reconcile these two theories. Fifty-five healthy participants were exposed to an adaptation of the Necker cube paradigm, in which we manipulated sensory evidence and prior knowledge. Manipulations of both sensory evidence and priors significantly affected the way participants perceived the Necker cube. However, we observed an interaction between the effect of the cue and the effect of the instructions, a finding that is incompatible with Bayes-optimal integration. In contrast, the data were well predicted by a circular inference model. In this model, ambiguous sensory evidence is systematically biased in the direction of current expectations, ultimately resulting in a bistable percept.

Embodied Predictions, Agency, and Psychosis.

Psychotic symptoms, i.e., hallucinations and delusions, involve gross departures from conscious apprehension of consensual reality; respectively, perceiving and believing things that, according to same culture peers, do not obtain. In schizophrenia, those experiences are often related to abnormal sense of control over one's own actions, often expressed as a distorted sense of agency (i.e., passivity symptoms). Cognitive and computational neuroscience have furnished an account of these experiences and beliefs in terms of the brain's generative model of the world, which underwrites inferences to the best explanation of current and future states, in order to behave adaptively. Inference then involves a reliability-based trade off of predictions and prediction errors, and psychotic symptoms may arise as departures from this inference process, either an over- or under-weighting of priors relative to prediction errors. Surprisingly, there is empirical evidence in favor of both positions. Relatedly, there is evidence for both an enhanced and a diminished sense of agency in schizophrenia. How can this be? We argue that there is more than one generative model in the brain, and that ego- and allo-centric models operate in tandem. In brief, ego-centric models implement corollary discharge signals that cancel out the effects of self-generated actions while allo-centric models compare several hypothesis regarding the causes of sensory inputs (including the self among the potential causes). The two parallel hierarchies give rise to different levels of agency, with ego-centric models subserving "feelings of agency" and allo-centric predictions giving rise to "judgements of agency." Those two components are weighted according to their reliability and combined, generating a higher-level "sense of agency." We suggest that in schizophrenia a failure of corollary discharges to suppress self-generated inputs results in the absence of a "feeling of agency" and in a compensatory enhancement of allo-centric priors, which might underlie hallucinations, delusions of control but also, under certain circumstances, the enhancement of "judgments of agency." We discuss the consequences of such a model, and potential courses of action that could lead to its falsification.

Can circular inference relate the neuropathological and behavioral aspects of schizophrenia?

Schizophrenia is a complex and heterogeneous mental disorder, and researchers have only recently begun to understand its neuropathology. However, since the time of Kraepelin and Bleuler, much information has been accumulated regarding the behavioral abnormalities usually encountered in patients suffering from schizophrenia. Despite recent progress, how the latter are caused by the former is still debated. Here, we argue that circular inference, a computational framework proposed as a potential explanation for various schizophrenia symptoms, could help end this debate. Based on Marr's three levels of analysis, we discuss how impairments in local and more global neural circuits could generate aberrant beliefs, with far-ranging consequences from probabilistic decision making to high-level visual perception in conditions of ambiguity. Interestingly, the circular inference framework appears to be compatible with a variety of pathophysiological theories of schizophrenia while simulating the behavioral symptoms.

Are Hallucinations Due to an Imbalance Between Excitatory and Inhibitory Influences on the Brain?

This review from the International Consortium on Hallucinations Research intends to question the pertinence of the excitatory-to-inhibitory (E/I) imbalance hypothesis as a model for hallucinations. A large number of studies suggest that subtle impairments of the E/I balance are involved in neurological and psychiatric conditions, such as schizophrenia. Emerging evidence also points to a role of the E/I balance in maintaining stable perceptual representations, suggesting it may be a plausible model for hallucinations. In support, hallucinations have been linked to inhibitory deficits as shown with impairment of gamma-aminobutyric acid transmission, N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor plasticity, reductions in gamma-frequency oscillations, hyperactivity in sensory cortices, and cognitive inhibition deficits. However, the mechanisms by which E/I dysfunctions at the cellular level might relate to clinical symptoms and cognitive deficits remain unclear. Given recent data advances in the field of clinical neuroscience, it is now possible to conduct a synthesis of available data specifically related to hallucinations. These findings are integrated with the latest computational frameworks of hallucinations, and recommendations for future research are provided.