Circularity in animal production requires a change in the EAT-Lancet diet in Europe.

It is not known whether dietary guidelines proposing a limited intake of animal protein are compatible with the adoption of circular food systems. Using a resource-allocation model, we compared the effects of circularity on the supply of animal-source nutrients in Europe with the nutritional requirements of the EAT-Lancet reference diet. We found the two to be compatible in terms of total animal-source proteins but not specific animal-source foods; in particular, the EAT-Lancet guidelines recommend larger quantities of poultry meat over beef and pork, while a circular food system produces mainly milk, dairy-beef and pork. Compared with the EAT-Lancet reference diet, greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by up to 31% and arable land use reduced by up to 42%. Careful consideration of the feasible substitutability between animal-source foods is needed to define potential roles of animal products in circular human diets.

Simulation of Soil Organic Carbon Effects on Long-Term Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum) Production Under Varying Fertilizer Inputs.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) has a vital role to enhance agricultural productivity and for mitigation of climate change. To quantify SOC effects on productivity, process models serve as a robust tool to keep track of multiple plant and soil factors and their interactions affecting SOC dynamics. We used soil-plant-atmospheric model viz. DAISY, to assess effects of SOC on nitrogen (N) supply and plant available water (PAW) under varying N fertilizer rates in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Denmark. The study objective was assessment of SOC effects on winter wheat grain and aboveground biomass accumulation at three SOC levels (low: 0.7% SOC; reference: 1.3% SOC; and high: 2% SOC) with five nitrogen rates (0-200 kg N ha-1) and PAW at low, reference, and high SOC levels. The three SOC levels had significant effects on grain yields and aboveground biomass accumulation at only 0-100 kg N ha-1 and the SOC effects decreased with increasing N rates until no effects at 150-200 kg N ha-1. PAW had significant positive correlation with SOC content, with high SOC retaining higher PAW compared to low and reference SOC. The mean PAW and SOC correlation was given by PAW% = 1.0073 × SOC% + 15.641. For the 0.7-2% SOC range, the PAW increase was small with no significant effects on grain yields and aboveground biomass accumulation. The higher winter wheat grain and aboveground biomass was attributed to higher N supply in N deficient wheat production system. Our study suggested that building SOC enhances agronomic productivity at only 0-100 kg N ha-1. Maintenance of SOC stock will require regular replenishment of SOC, to compensate for the mineralization process degrading SOC over time. Hence, management can maximize realization of SOC benefits by building up SOC and maintaining N rates in the range 0-100 kg N ha-1, to reduce the off-farm N losses depending on the environmental zones, land use and the production system.

Nutrient Recovery and Emissions of Ammonia, Nitrous Oxide, and Methane from Animal Manure in Europe: Effects of Manure Treatment Technologies.

Animal manure contributes considerably to ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Europe. Various treatment technologies have been implemented to reduce emissions and to facilitate its use as fertilizer, but a systematic analysis of these technologies has not yet been carried out. This study presents an integrated assessment of manure treatment effects on NH3, nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions from manure management chains in all countries of EU-27 in 2010 using the MITERRA-Europe model. Effects of implementing 12 treatment technologies on emissions and nutrient recovery were further explored through scenario analyses; the level of implementation corresponded to levels currently achieved by forerunner countries. Manure treatment decreased GHG emissions from manures in EU countries by 0-17% in 2010, with the largest contribution from anaerobic digestion; the effects on NH3 emissions were small. Scenario analyses indicate that increased use of slurry acidification, thermal drying, incineration and pyrolysis may decrease NH3 (9-11%) and GHG (11-18%) emissions; nitrification-denitrification treatment decreased NH3 emissions, but increased GHG emissions. The nitrogen recovery (% of nitrogen excreted in housings that is applied to land) would increase from a mean of 57% (in 2010) to 61% by acidification, but would decrease to 48% by incineration. Promoting optimized manure treatment technologies can greatly contribute to achieving NH3 and GHG emission targets set in EU environmental policies.

Defining Ecosystem Assets for Natural Capital Accounting.

In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems' capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks.

Phosphorus flows and balances of the European Union Member States.

Global society faces serious "phosphorus challenges" given the scarcity, essentiality, unequal global distribution and, at the same time, regional excess of phosphorus (P). Phosphorus flow studies can be used to analyze these challenges, providing insight into how society (re)uses and loses phosphorus, identifying potential solutions. Phosphorus flows were analyzed in detail for EU-27 and its Member States. To quantify food system and non-food flows, country specific data and historical context were considered. The sectors covered were crop production (CP), animal production (AP), food processing (FP), non-food production (NF) and consumption (HC). The results show that the EU-27 imported 2392 Gg P in 2005, half of which accumulated in agricultural soils (924 Gg) and half was lost as waste (1217 Gg). Net accumulation was 4.9 kg P/ha/year ranging between +23.2 (Belgium) and -2.8 (Slovakia). From the system losses, 54% was lost from HC in diverse waste flows and 28% from FP, mainly through incinerated slaughter residues. The largest HC losses (655 Gg) were wastewater (55%), food waste (27%), and pet excreta (11%). Phosphorus recycling rates were 73% in AP, 29% in FP, 21% in HC and ~0% in NF. The phosphorus use efficiencies showed that, relative to sector input, about 70% was taken up by crops (CP), 24% was retained in animals (AP), 52% was contained in food products (FP), 76% was stored in non-food materials (NF), and 21% was recycled (HC). Although wide-ranging variation between countries, generally phosphorus use in EU-27 was characterized by relatively (1) large dependency on (primary) imports, (2) long-term accumulation in agricultural soils, especially in west European countries, (3) leaky losses throughout entire society, especially emissions to the environment and sequestered waste, (4) little recycling with the exception of manure, and (5) low use efficiencies, because of aforementioned issues, providing ample opportunities for improvement.

Livestock greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Europe.

The livestock sector contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Here, for the year 2007 we examined GHG emissions in the EU27 livestock sector and estimated GHG emissions from production and consumption of livestock products; including imports, exports and wastage. We also reviewed available mitigation options and estimated their potential. The focus of this review is on the beef and dairy sector since these contribute 60% of all livestock production emissions. Particular attention is paid to the role of land use and land use change (LULUC) and carbon sequestration in grasslands. GHG emissions of all livestock products amount to between 630 and 863 Mt CO2 e, or 12-17% of total EU27 GHG emissions in 2007. The highest emissions aside from production, originate from LULUC, followed by emissions from wasted food. The total GHG mitigation potential from the livestock sector in Europe is between 101 and 377 Mt CO2 e equivalent to between 12 and 61% of total EU27 livestock sector emissions in 2007. A reduction in food waste and consumption of livestock products linked with reduced production, are the most effective mitigation options, and if encouraged, would also deliver environmental and human health benefits. Production of beef and dairy on grassland, as opposed to intensive grain fed production, can be associated with a reduction in GHG emissions depending on actual LULUC emissions. This could be promoted on rough grazing land where appropriate.

An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal demands.

Differentiation of nitrous oxide emission factors for agricultural soils.

Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) direct soil emissions from agriculture are often estimated using the default IPCC emission factor (EF) of 1%. However, a large variation in EFs exists due to differences in environment, crops and management. We developed an approach to determine N(2)O EFs that depend on N-input sources and environmental factors. The starting point of the method was a monitoring study in which an EF of 1% was found. The conditions of this experiment were set as the reference from which the effects of 16 sources of N input, three soil types, two land-use types and annual precipitation on the N(2)O EF were estimated. The derived EF inference scheme performed on average better than the default IPCC EF. The use of differentiated EFs, including different regional conditions, allows accounting for the effects of more mitigation measures and offers European countries a possibility to use a Tier 2 approach.