Detection of asymptomatic carotid stenosis in patients with lower-extremity arterial disease: development and external validations of a risk score.

BACKGROUND: Recommendations for screening patients with lower-extremity arterial disease (LEAD) to detect asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) are conflicting. Prediction models might identify patients at high risk of ACS, possibly allowing targeted screening to improve preventive therapy and compliance. METHODS: A systematic search for prediction models for at least 50 per cent ACS in patients with LEAD was conducted. A prediction model in screened patients from the USA with an ankle : brachial pressure index of 0.9 or less was subsequently developed, and assessed for discrimination and calibration. External validation was performed in two independent cohorts, from the UK and the Netherlands. RESULTS: After screening 4907 studies, no previously published prediction models were found. For development of a new model, data for 112 117 patients were used, of whom 6354 (5.7 per cent) had at least 50 per cent ACS and 2801 (2.5 per cent) had at least 70 per cent ACS. Age, sex, smoking status, history of hypercholesterolaemia, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, coronary heart disease and measured systolic BP were predictors of ACS. The model discrimination had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.71 (95 per cent c.i. 0.71 to 0.72) for at least 50 per cent ACS and 0.73 (0.72 to 0.73) for at least 70 per cent ACS. Screening the 20 per cent of patients at greatest risk detected 12.4 per cent with at least 50 per cent ACS (number needed to screen (NNS) 8] and 5.8 per cent with at least 70 per cent ACS (NNS 17). This yielded 44.2 and 46.9 per cent of patients with at least 50 and 70 per cent ACS respectively. External validation showed reliable discrimination and adequate calibration. CONCLUSION: The present risk score can predict significant ACS in patients with LEAD. This approach may inform targeted screening of high-risk individuals to enhance the detection of ACS.

Diabetes mellitus, fasting blood glucose concentration, and risk of vascular disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 102 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances. METHODS: We undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease. FINDINGS: Analyses included data for 698 782 people (52 765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8.49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2.00 (95% CI 1.83-2.19) for coronary heart disease; 2.27 (1.95-2.65) for ischaemic stroke; 1.56 (1.19-2.05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1.84 (1.59-2.13) for unclassified stroke; and 1.73 (1.51-1.98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40-59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10-12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3.90 mmol/L and 5.59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3.90-5.59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1.07 (0.97-1.18) for lower than 3.90 mmol/L; 1.11 (1.04-1.18) for 5.60-6.09 mmol/L; and 1.17 (1.08-1.26) for 6.10-6.99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors. INTERPRETATION: Diabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and non-linearly associated with risk of vascular disease. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Pfizer.

Associations of plasma fibrinogen levels with established cardiovascular disease risk factors, inflammatory markers, and other characteristics: individual participant meta-analysis of 154,211 adults in 31 prospective studies: the fibrinogen studies collaboration.

Long-term increases in plasma fibrinogen levels of 1 g/liter are associated with an approximate doubling of risk of major cardiovascular disease outcomes, but causality remains uncertain. To quantify cross-sectional associations of fibrinogen levels with established risk factors and other characteristics, the investigators combined individual data on 154,211 apparently healthy adults from 31 prospective studies conducted between 1967 and 2003, using a linear mixed model that included random effects at the cohort level. Fibrinogen levels increased with age and showed continuous, approximately linear relations with several risk markers and slightly curvilinear associations with log triglycerides, albumin, and tobacco and alcohol consumption. Female sex, Black ethnicity, lower socioeconomic status, and alcohol abstinence were each associated with modestly higher fibrinogen levels. Approximately one third of the variation in fibrinogen levels was explained by cohort, age, and sex. An additional 7% was explained by established risk factors (notably, positive associations with smoking and body mass index and an inverse association with high density lipoprotein cholesterol), and a further 10% was explained by inflammatory markers (notably, a positive association with C-reactive protein). The association with body mass index was twice as strong in women as in men, whereas the association with smoking was much stronger in men. These findings substantially advance understanding of the correlates and possible determinants of fibrinogen levels.

WITHDRAWN: Tacrine for Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Tacrine is one of the first drugs to be widely marketed for the loss of memory and intellectual decline in Alzheimer's disease, often accompanied by abnormal behaviour and physical decline. The alleged success of tacrine in the treatment of these symptoms has been heralded as confirmation of the cholinergic theory of Alzheimer's disease. The efficacy of tacrine for symptoms of dementia remains controversial. This is reflected by the low rate of prescription of tacrine in countries where it is approved and the lack of approval by several regulatory authorities in Europe and elsewhere. The uncertainty about the efficacy of tacrine is due to the difficulties in interpretation of the results from the clinical trials. The reasons for this are the small effects of tacrine compared to placebo for all outcomes; the high incidence of adverse events; the lack of benefit observed in several trials; the use of cross-over designs and their associated methodological problems in a disease like dementia; the use of different measurement scales to assess outcome in different trials; and the problem of high dropout rates. OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical efficacy of tacrine for the symptoms of Alzheimer's disease. SEARCH STRATEGY: The Cochrane Dementia Group Register of Clinical Trials was searched using the terms 'tacrine', 'tetrahydroaminoacridine' and 'THA' (see the Group's search strategy for full details). SELECTION CRITERIA: All unconfounded, double-blind, randomized trials in which treatment with tacrine was administered for more than a day and compared to placebo in patients with dementia of the Alzheimer's type. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted independently by two reviewers, pooled if appropriate and possible, and the pooled odds ratios (95%CI) or the average differences (95%CI) were estimated. Where possible, intention-to-treat data were used. MAIN RESULTS: This review produced no clear results. The results were compatible with tacrine producing improvement, no change or even harm for those with Alzheimer's disease. It was not possible to use many of the published results in a combined analysis. For measures of overall clinical improvement, the intention-to-treat analyses failed to detect any difference between tacrine and placebo (OR 0.87; 95%CI 0.61 - 1.23). Behavioural disturbance, as measured by the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-noncognitive, failed to detect any difference between tacrine and placebo (SMD -0.04; 95%CI -0.52 - 0.43). For cognition function, the effect of tacrine was not statistically significantly different from placebo for the MiniMental State Examination score (0-30; high =good) (SMD 0.14; 95%CI -0.02 - 0.30) and was barely statistically significantly in favour of treatment for the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive scale (SMD -0.22; 95%CI -0.32 - -0.13). Adverse events were not reported in a systematic way in the different trials, making formal comparison difficult. Raised serum liver enzymes was the major reason for withdrawal. The odds ratio for withdrawal due to an adverse event was significantly different from one, the control group experienced fewer events (OR 5.7; 95%CI 4.1-7.9). Gastrointestinal side effects (diarrhoea, anorexia, dyspepsia and abdominal pain) were the other major cause of adverse events and for withdrawal, and the odds ratio for withdrawal was also significantly different from one in favour of the control group (OR 3.8; 95%CI 2.8-5.1). No deaths were reported in any of the studies during the trial period, up to six months. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review provides no convincing evidence that tacrine is a useful treatment for the symptoms of Alzheimer's disease. However, as so few trials presented data in a format suitable for pooling, the results of this review may be modified when further data from all relevant trials are included. There is an urgent need for the independent evaluation of the data already existing in the trials but not accessible through published or grouped data. An independent meta-analysis of the individual-patient data is required. The results and conclusions of this update are unaltered by further searching as the additional studies do not add any further valid/eligible data.

Homocysteine-lowering trials for prevention of vascular disease: protocol for a collaborative meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma total homocysteine is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the randomized trials of dietary supplementation with B-vitamins to lower homocysteine have not yet provided clear evidence of benefit on vascular risk. METHODS: Cumulative meta-analysis of all randomized trials assessing the effects of lowering homocysteine levels with B-vitamins on risk of CVD. RESULTS: An individual patient data meta-analysis of all randomized trials of the effects on vascular risk of lowering homocysteine with B-vitamins will maximize the power to assess the epidemiologically predicted differences in risk. Among the 12 randomized homocysteine-lowering trials for prevention of CVD, involving more than 1000 participants, data should be available on approximately 52,000 participants (32,000 with prior CVD in unfortified populations; and 14,000 with prior CVD and 6000 with renal disease in fortified populations). To minimize bias, the design and primary analyses to be carried out have been pre-specified. The analyses will include assessment of effects on major vascular events (MVE), stroke, major coronary events (MCE), in addition to venous thrombosis, cancer and fractures. Additional analyses will assess effects on vascular outcomes in sub-groups defined by population, prior disease, per 3 micromol/L difference in homocysteine levels achieved by treatment, pre-treatment vitamin status, duration, age, sex and vascular events excluding revascularizations and, separately, excluding vascular events occurring during the first year of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: A cumulative meta-analysis of the homocysteine-lowering trials should ensure that reliable evidence emerges about the effects of lowering homocysteine on risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes.

Homocysteine, MTHFR and risk of venous thrombosis: a meta-analysis of published epidemiological studies.

CONTEXT: It has been suggested that elevated total plasma homocysteine levels are associated with the risk of venous thrombosis. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship of homocysteine and the MTHFR 677TT genotype and the risk of venous thrombosis by conducting a meta-analysis of all relevant studies. DATA SOURCES AND SELECTION: Studies (case-control or nested case-control) were identified by searches of electronic literature for relevant reports published before July 2003 on homocysteine and the MTHFR 677TT genotype and venous thrombosis as an end-point, by hand-searching reference lists of original articles (including meta-analyses) on this topic and by contact with investigators in the field. DATA EXTRACTION: A meta-analysis of 24 retrospective (n = 3289 cases) and three prospective studies (n = 476 cases) was carried out to examine the association of homocysteine with venous thrombosis. A meta-analysis of 53 studies (n = 8364 cases) of the MTHFR 677TT genotype (that increases homocysteine) was carried out to assess if this association is causal. DATA SYNTHESIS: A 5 micromol L(-1) higher measured homocysteine level was associated with a 27% (95% CI: 1-59) higher risk of venous thrombosis in prospective studies and a 60% (95% CI: 10-134) higher risk in retrospective studies. The 677TT genotype was associated with a 20% (95% CI: 8-32) higher risk of venous thrombosis compared with the 677CC genotype. In contrast with non-American studies, the 677TT genotype had no effect on venous thrombosis in North America, due probably to the higher intake of folate and riboflavin in North America. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis of prospective and retrospective studies demonstrates a modest association of homocysteine with venous thrombosis. The elevated risk associated with the MTHFR 677TT genotype provides some support for causality.

Tissue plasminogen activator antigen and coronary heart disease. Prospective study and meta-analysis.

AIMS: To determine whether circulating tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) antigen concentrations are prospectively related to risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured baseline concentrations of t-PA antigen in the stored serum samples of 606 CHD cases and 1227 controls 'nested' in a prospective cohort of 5661 men monitored for 16 years, and conducted a meta-analysis of previous relevant studies to place our findings in context. Tissue plasminogen activator antigen values were strongly correlated with several vascular risk factors, including serum lipids, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and markers of systemic inflammation. In a comparison of men in the top third compared with those in the bottom third of baseline t-PA antigen values, the odds ratio for CHD was 2.20 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.70-2.85) after adjustment for age and town only, but this fell to 1.48 (1.09-2.01) after further adjustment. Analysis of t-PA as a continuous variable gave similar results. Similarly, when published information on all seven available prospective cohort studies in general populations (2119 cases and 8832 controls in total) was synthesized, the combined odds ratio was 2.18 (1.77-2.69) after adjustment for age and sex only, and this fell to 1.47 (1.19-1.81) after further adjustment. CONCLUSION: Although there is a statistically significant association between circulating concentrations of t-PA antigen and subsequent CHD, additional studies are needed to determine to what extent this is independent from more established risk factors.

Corticosteroids for acute ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Much of the brain swelling in ischaemic stroke is due to cytotoxic oedema, which is related to cell membrane dysfunction. Early treatment with corticosteroids may help reduce the swelling and improve the outcomes after a stroke. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review was to assess the effect of corticosteroids in acute presumed ischaemic stroke. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group trials register (last searched: 10 April 2001) and contacted investigators in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Published randomised trials comparing corticosteroids with placebo or control in people with acute (presumed or definite) ischaemic stroke. Trials were included if treatment began within 48 hours of stroke onset and if clinical outcome was assessed. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers independently applied the inclusion criteria, assessed trial quality and extracted the data. MAIN RESULTS: Seven trials involving 453 people were included. Details of trial quality that may relate to bias were not available from most trials. No difference was shown in the odds of death within one year (odds ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.72). Treatment did not appear to improve functional outcome in survivors. Six trials reported neurological impairment but pooling the data was impossible because no common scale or time interval was used. The results were inconsistent between individual trials. The only adverse effects reported were small numbers of gastrointestinal bleeds, infections and deterioration of hyperglycaemia across both groups. Results unchanged since last update. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: There is not enough evidence to evaluate corticosteroid treatment for people with acute presumed ischaemic stroke. Conclusions unchanged since last update.

Chlamydia pneumoniae IgA titres and coronary heart disease; prospective study and meta-analysis.

AIMS: To examine associations between Chlamydia pneumoniae IgA titres and incident coronary heart disease, and to compare them with associations previously reported between C. pneumoniae IgG titres and coronary heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured serum concentrations of C. pneumoniae IgA antibodies in 502 coronary heart disease cases and in 1005 age- and town-matched controls 'nested' in a community-based prospective study of 5661 British men (mean follow-up in controls, 16 years), and conducted a meta-analysis of published prospective studies to place our findings in context. Two hundred and twenty-one (44%) of the cases were in the top third of C. pneumoniae IgA titres compared with 336 (33%) of the controls, yielding an odds ratio for coronary heart disease of 1.84 (95% confidence interval 1.40-2.43) which was largely unchanged after adjustment. In aggregate, the present study and nine previously reported prospective studies of C. pneumoniae IgA titres involved 2283 cases, yielding a combined odds ratio for coronary heart disease of 1.25 (1.03-1.53), with no significant heterogeneity among the ten studies (chi(2)9=7.8; P>0.1). This combined odds ratio is compatible with that previously reported for C. pneumoniae IgG titres and coronary heart disease (1.15, 0.97-1.36). CONCLUSION: Neither C. pneumoniae IgA titres nor IgG titres are strongly predictive of coronary heart disease in the general population.

Underestimation of the importance of blood pressure and cholesterol for coronary heart disease mortality in old age.

AIMS: To take appropriate account of duration of follow-up in estimating age-specific associations of 'usual' blood pressure and cholesterol with death from coronary heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Blood pressure and cholesterol were measured in 18 841 men at entry to the Whitehall study, and coronary heart disease mortality was recorded during a 26-year period. Biennial re-measurements of these risk factors in the Framingham study were used to obtain period-specific corrections for 'regression dilution'. For coronary heart disease deaths at ages 40-64, 65-74 and 75+ years in the Whitehall study, the mean times since baseline were 9, 15, and 21 years, respectively. In uncorrected analyses of coronary heart disease risk in each age range, a 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure at baseline was associated with proportional risk reductions of only 19%, 14% and 10%, respectively (P<0.001 for trend with age). After period-specific correction for regression dilution, a 10 mmHg lower usual systolic blood pressure about 5 years before coronary heart disease death was associated with risk reductions of 25%, 23% and 21%, respectively (trend P=0.1). Similarly, a 1 mmol . l(-1)lower blood cholesterol was associated with proportional reductions in coronary heart disease risk of 21%, 17% and 11% (trend P<0.001) in uncorrected analyses, by contrast with proportional reductions of 27%, 26% and 21% (trend P=0.5) after period-specific correction. CONCLUSIONS: After making appropriate allowance for the longer interval between baseline measurements and death at older ages, reductions in the risk of coronary heart disease death associated with differences in usual levels of blood pressure or cholesterol at some particular fixed time prior to death were about as great in old age as in middle age.

Underestimation of the importance of homocysteine as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease in epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: In epidemiological studies, within-person variability in plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) measurements may dilute the association of 'usual' levels of tHcy with risk of cardiovascular disease, referred to as 'regression dilution'. The aim of this report was to estimate the magnitude of regression dilution after varying intervals of follow-up. METHODS: Regression dilution ratios (RDR) for tHcy were calculated using replicate tHcy measurements obtained after 3, 6 and 8 years from the Rotterdam, Hordaland and Framingham studies, respectively, and after 3, 6, 9 and 12 years from the United Kingdom Prospective Study of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (UKPDS). RESULTS: The RDR for tHcy decreased with increasing interval in the three population-based studies and in the UKPDS. Moreover, the rate of decline of the RDR in the population-based studies was similar to that obtained in the UKPDS. Using linear regression analysis for the population-based studies, these results suggest an RDR of 0.83 at 2 years, 0.71 at 6 years and 0.53 at 12 years. CONCLUSIONS: These results have important implications for the interpretation of prospective studies of tHcy and cardiovascular disease. Failure to correct for increasing regression dilution using lower RDRs for longer follow-up may underestimate the relative risks of cardiovascular disease associated with tHcy by about one-fifth after 2 years and one-half after 10 years.

Tacrine for Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical efficacy of tacrine for the symptoms of Alzheimer's disease. SEARCH STRATEGY: The Cochrane Dementia Group Register of Clinical Trials was searched using the terms 'tacrine', 'tetrahydroaminoacridine' and 'THA' (see the Group's search strategy for full details). SELECTION CRITERIA: All unconfounded, double-blind, randomized trials in which treatment with tacrine was administered for more than a day and compared to placebo in patients with dementia of the Alzheimer's type. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted independently by two reviewers, pooled if appropriate and possible, and the pooled odds ratios (95%CI) or the average differences (95%CI) were estimated. Where possible, intention-to-treat data were used. MAIN RESULTS: This review produced no clear results. The results were compatible with tacrine producing improvement, no change or even harm for those with Alzheimer's disease. It was not possible to use many of the published results in a combined analysis. For measures of overall clinical improvement, the intention-to-treat analyses failed to detect any difference between tacrine and placebo (OR 0.87; 95%CI 0. 61 - 1.23). Behavioural disturbance, as measured by the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-noncognitive, failed to detect any difference between tacrine and placebo (SMD -0.04; 95%CI -0.52 - 0. 43). For cognition function, the effect of tacrine was not statistically significantly different from placebo for the MiniMental State Examination score (0-30; high =good) (SMD 0.14; 95%CI -0.02 - 0.30) and was barely statistically significantly in favour of treatment for the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive scale (SMD -0.22; 95%CI -0.32 - -0.13). Adverse events were not reported in a systematic way in the different trials, making formal comparison difficult. Raised serum liver enzymes was the major reason for withdrawal. The odds ratio for withdrawal due to an adverse event was significantly different from one, the control group experienced fewer events (OR 5.7; 95%CI 4.1-7.9). Gastrointestinal side effects (diarrhoea, anorexia, dyspepsia and abdominal pain) were the other major cause of adverse events and for withdrawal, and the odds ratio for withdrawal was also significantly different from one in favour of the control group (OR 3.8; 95%CI 2. 8-5.1). No deaths were reported in any of the studies during the trial period, up to six months. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: This review provides no convincing evidence that tacrine is a useful treatment for the symptoms of Alzheimer's disease. However, as so few trials presented data in a format suitable for pooling, the results of this review may be modified when further data from all relevant trials are included. There is an urgent need for the independent evaluation of the data already existing in the trials but not accessible through published or grouped data. An independent meta-analysis of the individual-patient data is required. The results and conclusions of this update are unaltered by further searching as the additional studies do not add any further valid/eligible data.

Corticosteroids for acute ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Much of the brain swelling in ischaemic stroke is due to cytotoxic oedema, which is related to cell membrane dysfunction. Early treatment with corticosteroids may help reduce the swelling and improve the outcomes after a stroke. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review was to assess the effect of corticosteroids in acute presumed ischaemic stroke. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group trials register and contacted investigators in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Published randomised trials comparing corticosteroids with placebo or control in people with acute (presumed or definite) ischaemic stroke. Trials were included if treatment began within 48 hours of stroke onset and if clinical outcome was assessed. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers independently applied the inclusion criteria, assessed trial quality and extracted the data. MAIN RESULTS: Seven trials involving 453 people were included. Details of trial quality that may relate to bias were not available from most trials. No difference was shown in the odds of death within one year (odds ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.72). Treatment did not appear to improve functional outcome in survivors. Six trials reported neurological impairment but pooling the data was impossible because no common scale or time interval was used. The results were inconsistent between individual trials. The only adverse effects reported were small numbers of gastrointestinal bleeds, infections and deterioration of hyperglycaemia across both groups. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: There is not enough evidence to evaluate corticosteroid treatment for people with acute presumed ischaemic stroke.

Tacrine for Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Tacrine is one of the first drugs to be widely marketed for the loss of memory and intellectual decline in Alzheimer's disease. The alleged success of tacrine in the treatment of these symptoms has been heralded as confirmation of the cholinergic theory of Alzheimer's disease. However, the efficacy of tacrine for symptoms of dementia remains controversial. This is reflected by the low rate of prescription of tacrine in countries where it is approved and the lack of approval by several regulatory authorities in Europe and elsewhere. The uncertainty about the efficacy of tacrine is due to the difficulties in interpretation of the results from the clinical trials. The reasons for this are the small effects of tacrine compared to placebo for all outcomes; the high incidence of adverse events; the lack of benefit observed in several trials; the use of cross-over designs and their associated methodological problems in a disease like dementia; the use of different measurement scales to assess outcome in different trials; and the problem of high dropout rates. OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical efficacy of tacrine for the symptoms of Alzheimer's disease. SEARCH STRATEGY: The Cochrane Dementia Group Register of Clinical Trials was searched using the terms 'tacrine', 'tetrahydroaminoacridine' and 'THA' (see the Group's search strategy for full details). SELECTION CRITERIA: All unconfounded, double-blind, randomized trials in which treatment with tacrine was administered for more than a day and compared to placebo in patients with dementia of the Alzheimer's type. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted independently by two reviewers, pooled if appropriate and possible, and the pooled odds ratios (95%CI) or the average differences (95%CI) were estimated. Where possible, intention-to-treat data were used. MAIN RESULTS: This review produced no clear results. The results were compatible with tacrine producing improvement, no change or even harm for those with Alzheimer's disease. It was not possible to use many of the published results in a combined analysis. For measures of overall clinical improvement, the intention-to-treat analyses failed to detect any difference between tacrine and placebo (OR 0.87; 95%CI 0.61 - 1.23). Behavioural disturbance, as measured by the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-noncognitive, failed to detect any difference between tacrine and placebo (SMD -0.04; 95%CI -0.52 - 0.43). For cognition function, the effect of tacrine was not statistically significantly different from placebo for the MiniMental State Examination score (0-30; high =good) (SMD 0.14; 95%CI -0.02 - 0.30) and was barely statistically significantly in favour of treatment for the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive scale (SMD -0.22; 95%CI -0.32 - -0.13). Adverse events were not reported in a systematic way in the different trials, making formal comparison difficult. Raised serum liver enzymes was the major reason for withdrawal. The odds ratio for withdrawal due to an adverse event was significantly different from one, the control group experienced fewer events (OR 5.7; 95%CI 4.1-7.9). Gastrointestinal side effects (diarrhoea, anorexia, dyspepsia and abdominal pain) were the other major cause of adverse events and for withdrawal, and the odds ratio for withdrawal was also significantly different from one in favour of the control group (OR 3.8; 95%CI 2.8-5.1). No deaths were reported in any of the studies during the trial period, up to six months. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: This review provides no convincing evidence that tacrine is a useful treatment for the symptoms of Alzheimer's disease. However, as so few trials presented data in a format suitable for pooling, the results of this review may be modified when further data from all relevant trials are included. There is an urgent need for the independent evaluation of the data already existing in the trials but not accessible through published or grouped data. A

Blood pressure, cholesterol, and common causes of death: a review. Prospective Studies Collaboration.

Many prospective observational studies have reported on associations of blood pressure and blood cholesterol with cardiovascular disease, but few have been large enough to provide reliable estimates of the nature of these associations in different circumstances (or on the associations with nonvascular causes of death). Moreover, almost all such reports have related risk of disease to baseline measurements of the risk factor of interest, which can lead to substantial underestimation of the importance of the risk factor due to the regression dilution bias. By appropriate combination of individual participant data from all such studies in a systematic meta-analysis, with correction for regression dilution, the Prospective Studies Collaboration will characterize more precisely than has previously been possible the age- and gender-specific relevance of blood pressure and blood cholesterol to particular causes of death.

Underestimation of risk associations due to regression dilution in long-term follow-up of prospective studies.

In prospective studies, disease rates during follow-up are typically analyzed with respect to the values of factors measured during an initial baseline survey. However, because of "regression dilution," this generally tends to underestimate the real associations of disease rates with the "usual" levels of such risk factors during some particular exposure period. The "regression dilution ratio" describes the ratio of the steepness of the uncorrected association to that of the real association. To assess the relevance of the usual value of a risk factor during particular exposure periods (e.g., first, second, and third decades) to disease risks, regression dilution ratios can be derived by relating baseline measurements of the risk factor to replicate measurements from a reasonably representative sample of study participants after an interval equivalent to about the midpoint of each exposure period (e.g., at 5, 15, and 25 years, respectively). This report illustrates the impact of this time interval on the magnitude of the regression dilution ratios for blood pressure and blood cholesterol. The analyses were based on biennial remeasurements over 30 years for participants in the Framingham Study (Framingham, Massachusetts) and a 26-year resurvey for a sample of men in the Whitehall Study (London, England). They show that uncorrected associations of disease risk with baseline measurements underestimate the strength of the real associations with usual levels of these risk factors during the first decade of exposure by about one-third, the second decade by about one-half, and the third decade by about two-thirds. Hence, to correct appropriately for regression dilution, replicate measurements of such risk factors may be required at varying intervals after baseline for at least a sample of participants.