Predicting COVID-19 Infected Individuals in a Defined Population from Wastewater RNA Data.

Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 RNA has become an important tool for tracking the presence of the virus and serving as an early indicator for the onset of rapid transmission. Nevertheless, wastewater data are still not commonly used to predict the number of infected individuals in a sewershed. The main objective of this study was to calibrate a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model using RNA copy rates in sewage (i.e., gene copies per liter times flow rate) and the number of SARS-CoV-2 saliva-test-positive infected individuals in a university student population that was subject to repeated weekly testing during the Spring 2021 semester. A strong correlation was observed between the RNA copy rates and the number of infected individuals. The parameter in the SEIR model that had the largest impact on calibration was the maximum shedding rate, resulting in a mean value of 7.72 log10 genome copies per gram of feces. Regressing the saliva-test-positive infected individuals on predictions from the SEIR model based on the RNA copy rates yielded a slope of 0.87 (SE=0.11), which is statistically consistent with a 1:1 relationship between the two. These findings demonstrate that wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 can be used to estimate the number of infected individuals in a sewershed.

Stochasticity in materials structure, properties, and processing-A review.

We review the concept of stochasticity-i.e., unpredictable or uncontrolled fluctuations in structure, chemistry, or kinetic processes-in materials. We first define six broad classes of stochasticity: equilibrium (thermodynamic) fluctuations; structural/compositional fluctuations; kinetic fluctuations; frustration and degeneracy; imprecision in measurements; and stochasticity in modeling and simulation. In this review, we focus on the first four classes that are inherent to materials phenomena. We next develop a mathematical framework for describing materials stochasticity and then show how it can be broadly applied to these four materials-related stochastic classes. In subsequent sections, we describe structural and compositional fluctuations at small length scales that modify material properties and behavior at larger length scales; systems with engineered fluctuations, concentrating primarily on composite materials; systems in which stochasticity is developed through nucleation and kinetic phenomena; and configurations in which constraints in a given system prevent it from attaining its ground state and cause it to attain several, equally likely (degenerate) states. We next describe how stochasticity in these processes results in variations in physical properties and how these variations are then accentuated by-or amplify-stochasticity in processing and manufacturing procedures. In summary, the origins of materials stochasticity, the degree to which it can be predicted and/or controlled, and the possibility of using stochastic descriptions of materials structure, properties, and processing as a new degree of freedom in materials design are described.

Unveiling relationships between crime and property in England and Wales via density scale-adjusted metrics and network tools.

Scale-adjusted metrics (SAMs) are a significant achievement of the urban scaling hypothesis. SAMs remove the inherent biases of per capita measures computed in the absence of isometric allometries. However, this approach is limited to urban areas, while a large portion of the world's population still lives outside cities and rural areas dominate land use worldwide. Here, we extend the concept of SAMs to population density scale-adjusted metrics (DSAMs) to reveal relationships among different types of crime and property metrics. Our approach allows all human environments to be considered, avoids problems in the definition of urban areas, and accounts for the heterogeneity of population distributions within urban regions. By combining DSAMs, cross-correlation, and complex network analysis, we find that crime and property types have intricate and hierarchically organized relationships leading to some striking conclusions. Drugs and burglary had uncorrelated DSAMs and, to the extent property transaction values are indicators of affluence, twelve out of fourteen crime metrics showed no evidence of specifically targeting affluence. Burglary and robbery were the most connected in our network analysis and the modular structures suggest an alternative to "zero-tolerance" policies by unveiling the crime and/or property types most likely to affect each other.

Correction: Rural to Urban Population Density Scaling of Crime and Property Transactions in English and Welsh Parliamentary Constituencies.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149546.].

The Impact of Low-Level Lead Toxicity on School Performance among Hispanic Subgroups in the Chicago Public Schools.

BACKGROUND: Environmental lead exposure detrimentally affects children's educational performance, even at very low blood lead levels (BLLs). Among children in Chicago Public Schools (CPS), the severity of the effects of BLL on reading and math vary by racial subgroup (White vs. Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic Black). We investigated the impact of BLL on standardized test performance by Hispanic subgroup (Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Other Hispanic). METHODS: We examined 12,319 Hispanic children born in Chicago between 1994 and 1998 who were tested for BLL between birth and 2006 and enrolled in the 3rd grade at a CPS school between 2003 and 2006. We linked the Chicago birth registry, the Chicago Blood Lead Registry, and 3rd grade Illinois Standard Achievement Test (ISAT) scores to examine associations between BLL and school performance. Primary analyses were restricted to children with BLL below 10 µg/dL (0.483 µmol/L). RESULTS: BLLs below 10 µg/dL (0.483 µmol/L) were inversely associated with reading and math scores in all Hispanic subgroups. Adjusted Relative Risks (RRadj) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for reading and math failure were 1.34 (95% CI = 1.25, 1.63) and 1.53 (95% CI = 1.32, 1.78), respectively, per each additional 5 µg/dL of lead exposure for Hispanic children; RRadj did not differ across subgroups. We estimate that 7.0% (95% CI = 1.8, 11.9) of reading and 13.6% (95% CI = 7.7, 19.2) of math failure among Hispanic children can be attributed to exposure to BLLs of 5-9 µg/dL (0.242 to 0.435 µmol/L) vs. 0-4 µg/dL (0-0.193 µmol/L). The RRadj of math failure for each 5 µg/dL (0.242 µmol/L) increase in BLL was notably (p = 0.074) stronger among black Puerto Rican children (RRadj = 5.14; 95% CI = 1.65-15.94) compared to white Puerto Rican children (RRadj = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.12-2.02). CONCLUSIONS: Early childhood lead exposure is associated with poorer achievement on standardized reading and math tests in the 3rd grade for Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Other Hispanic children enrolled in Chicago Public Schools. While we did not see interactions between BLL and ISAT performance by Hispanic subgroup, the stronger association between BLL and math failure for Black Puerto Rican children is intriguing and warrants further study.

Rural to Urban Population Density Scaling of Crime and Property Transactions in English and Welsh Parliamentary Constituencies.

Urban population scaling of resource use, creativity metrics, and human behaviors has been widely studied. These studies have not looked in detail at the full range of human environments which represent a continuum from the most rural to heavily urban. We examined monthly police crime reports and property transaction values across all 573 Parliamentary Constituencies in England and Wales, finding that scaling models based on population density provided a far superior framework to traditional population scaling. We found four types of scaling: i) non-urban scaling in which a single power law explained the relationship between the metrics and population density from the most rural to heavily urban environments, ii) accelerated scaling in which high population density was associated with an increase in the power-law exponent, iii) inhibited scaling where the urban environment resulted in a reduction in the power-law exponent but remained positive, and iv) collapsed scaling where transition to the high density environment resulted in a negative scaling exponent. Urban scaling transitions, when observed, took place universally between 10 and 70 people per hectare. This study significantly refines our understanding of urban scaling, making clear that some of what has been previously ascribed to urban environments may simply be the high density portion of non-urban scaling. It also makes clear that some metrics undergo specific transitions in urban environments and these transitions can include negative scaling exponents indicative of collapse. This study gives promise of far more sophisticated scale adjusted metrics and indicates that studies of urban scaling represent a high density subsection of overall scaling relationships which continue into rural environments.

The impact of low-level lead toxicity on school performance among children in the Chicago Public Schools: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Environmental lead exposure poses a risk to educational performance, especially among poor, urban children. Previous studies found low-level lead exposure was a risk factor for diminished academic abilities, however, this study is distinct because of the very large sample size and because it controlled for very low birth weight and early preterm birth-two factors closely associated with lower academic performance. In this study we examined the association between lead concentration in whole blood (B-Pb) of Chicago Public School (CPS) children and their performance on the 3(rd) grade Illinois Standard Achievement Tests (ISAT) reading and math scores. METHODS: We examined 58,650 children born in Chicago between 1994 and 1998 who were tested for blood lead concentration between birth and 2006 and enrolled in the 3(rd) grade at a CPS school between 2003 and 2006. We linked the Chicago birth registry, the Chicago Blood Lead Registry, and 3(rd) grade ISAT scores to examine associations between B-Pb and school performance. RESULTS: After adjusting for other predictors of school performance including poverty, race/ethnicity, gender, maternal education and very low birth weight or preterm-birth, we found that B-Pbs below 10 µg/dL were inversely associated with reading and math scores in 3(rd) grade children. For a 5 µg/dL increase in B-Pb, the risk of failing increased by 32% for reading (RR = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.26, 1.39) and math (RR = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.26, 1.39). The effect of lead on reading was non-linear with steeper failure rates at lower B-Pbs. We estimated that 13% of reading failure and 14.8% of math failure can be attributed to exposure to blood lead concentrations of 5 to 9 vs. 0 to 4 µg/dL in Chicago school children. CONCLUSIONS: Early childhood lead exposure is associated with poorer achievement on standardized reading and math tests in the third grade, even at very low B-Pbs. Preventing lead exposure in early childhood is critical to improving school performance.

Comparison of contact mechanics of three meniscal repair techniques and partial meniscectomy in cadaveric dog stifles.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the biomechanical effect of horizontal, vertical, and cruciate suture repairs and partial meniscectomy on contact mechanics of dog stifles. STUDY DESIGN: Ex vivo experimental study. SAMPLE POPULATION: Cadaveric canine stifles (n=24). METHODS: Simulated bucket handle medial meniscal tears were created in cadaveric dog stifles. Tears were treated with 1 of 3 suture repair techniques or partial meniscectomy. Instantaneous contact area (CA), mean contact pressure (MCP), and peak contact pressure (PCP) measurements were recorded with a pressure sensing system. CA, MCP, and PCP for intact stifles (control), stifles with simulated tears, and stifles after treatment were recorded and compared using 1-way repeated measures ANOVA. RESULTS: Stifles with bucket handle tears had significantly decreased CA, increased MCP and increased PCP when compared with control. All meniscal repair techniques reestablished normal contact mechanics. When comparing meniscal repair and partial meniscectomy, stifles with partial meniscectomy had approximately 35% lower CA, 57% higher MCP, and 55% higher PCP than stifles undergoing repair. CONCLUSIONS: Contact mechanics obtained from each repair technique were mechanically superior to partial meniscectomy. Performing meniscal repair instead of partial meniscectomy in dogs with select meniscal tears may mitigate the development of degenerative joint disease. Criteria for selection of candidates for meniscal repair should be confirmed with future studies. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Based on this ex-vivo model, meniscal repair will restore normal contact mechanics. Consideration should be given to meniscal repair as treatment for peripheral meniscal tears located in the vascular zone if the meniscal parenchyma is normal.

Fatal fat embolism following an isolated vertebral fracture.

The authors report an unusual case of a fat embolism following an isolated lumbar vertebra wedge fracture. A 66-year-old gentleman sustained a lumbar wedge fracture following a fall. During routine mobilisation some days later he collapsed suddenly and became unresponsive. Shortly after, he suffered a fatal cardiac arrest. A post-mortem was performed which attributed the cause of death to fat embolism. Most previously reported cases of fat embolism are associated with long bone fractures and major bony surgery. No apparent case of fatal fat embolism following an isolated vertebral fracture has previously been described.

Numerical analysis of the shapes and energies of droplets on micropatterned substrates.

The shapes and energies of drops on substrates patterned with either holes or posts are computed using Surface Evolver software. The holes and posts are cylindrical in shape and distributed in a 6-fold symmetric pattern. The wetting conditions are such that the liquid does not fill the holes and the interface between the drop and the substrate is composite, i.e., partly solid/liquid and partly liquid/vapor. The sequence of stable drop configurations with increasing volume is analyzed and provides, in part, an explanation for superhydrophobic drop spreading.

Mycobacterium immunogenum causes hypersensitivity pneumonitis-like pathology in mice.

A surprising number of cases of hypersensitivity pneumonitis have been observed at work sites employing automotive machinists. Because hypersensitivity pneumonitis is not typically associated with exposure to metalworking fluid aerosols, this study examined whether Mycobacterium immunogenum (M. immunogenum), a rapidly growing mycobacterium isolated from several affected work sites, could induce hypersensitivity pneumonitis in mice. Hypersensitivity pneumonitis-like histologic changes occurred in mice treated with heat-killed and lysed M. immunogenum. These lung lesions were characterized by peribronchial and perivascular lymphohistiocytic inflammation and noncaseating granulomas in the parenchyma. The pathologic changes observed in mice instilled with M. immunogenum-contaminated used metalworking fluid were indistinguishable from those observed with M. immunogenum alone. The role of genetic factors in M. immunogenum-induced lung lesions was examined by comparison of the response of eight inbred strains of mice. The observed immunologic changes in the lung were significantly greater in C57Bl/6, 129, and BALB/c mice than in the other strains, suggesting that genetic factor(s) contribute to the susceptibility of workers exposed to M. immunogenum-contaminated metalworking fluid aerosols. Thus, these studies provide indirect evidence that M. immunogenum is an unrecognized class of microorganisms capable of causing hypersensitivity pneumonitis and plays a role in the outbreaks of hypersensitivity pneumonitis in automotive plants.

Grafting of massive tibial subchondral bone defects in a caprine model using beta-tricalcium phosphate versus autograft.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the ability of beta-tricalcium phosphate particles (beta-TCP) and autograft (AUTO) to maintain joint surface morphology when used to supplement massive subchondral bone defects in a caprine model. DESIGN: This was a prospective, parallel arm study with 2 experimental arms and a control group. METHODS: Unilateral, 11 mm diameter, 25 mm deep cylindrical defects were created in tibial subchondral bone of anesthetized goats (n = 16) and filled with autograft or beta-tricalcium phosphate particles. The contralateral limbs served as internal controls. Goats were killed at 3 months and both tibiae harvested. Molds made of the tibial plateau surface were used to create positive casts from which medial and lateral tibial plateau surfaces of both experimental (beta-tricalcium phosphate particles, autograft) and control limbs were digitized in 3 dimensions. Mirror images of the medial condyle surface contours from the controls were superimposed onto the experimental surfaces and deviations were compared using a Student t test (alpha = 0.05). Tibiae were then cut sagittally into medial (biomechanics) and lateral (histology) halves. Compressive modulus within the defect area was assessed by indentation to 2.0 mm at 0.2 mm per second using a 6-mm diameter pin. Specimens from the lateral tibial plateau were processed for undecalcified histology and the area of bone within the defect region measured. The articular surface of 86% of the autograft and 0% of the beta-tricalcium phosphate particles group had degenerative changes, with 29% of autograft goats exhibiting large-scale plateau collapse. Mean surface deviation for autograft was significantly greater than for beta-tricalcium phosphate particles (2.19 +/- 1.49 mm versus 0.78 +/- 0.19 mm), as was maximum surface deviation (11.19 +/- 8.02 mm versus 4.39 +/- 1.33 mm) (P < 0.05). The compressive modulus within the defect area for control animals was significantly higher than the experimental groups (P < 0.05). Significantly more bone was regenerated within beta-tricalcium phosphate particle-grafted defects compared to autograft (P < 0.05). These results indicated that beta-tricalcium phosphate particles might be a useful graft material for local repair of load bearing skeletal sites such as depressed tibial plateau fractures.

Percutaneous coronary intervention versus coronary bypass graft surgery for diabetic patients with unstable angina and risk factors for adverse outcomes with bypass: outcome of diabetic patients in the AWESOME randomized trial and registry.

OBJECTIVES: This study compared survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with survival after coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) among diabetics in the Veterans Affairs AWESOME (Angina With Extremely Serious Operative Mortality Evaluation) study randomized trial and registry of high-risk patients. BACKGROUND: Previous studies indicate that CABG may be superior to PCI for diabetics, but no comparisons have been made for diabetics at high risk for surgery. METHODS: Over five years (1995 to 2000), 2,431 patients with medically refractory myocardial ischemia and at least one of five risk factors (prior CABG, myocardial infarction within seven days, left ventricular ejection fraction <0.35, age >70 years, or an intra-aortic balloon being required to stabilize) were identified. A total of 781 were acceptable for CABG and PCI, and 454 consented to be randomized. The 1,650 patients not acceptable for both CABG and PCI constitute the physician-directed registry, and the 327 who were acceptable but refused to be randomized constitute the patient-choice registry. Diabetes prevalence was 32% (144) among randomized patients, 27% (89) in the patient-choice registry, and 32% (525) in the physician-directed registry. The CABG and PCI survival rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. RESULTS: The respective CABG and PCI 36-month survival rates for diabetic patients were 72% and 81% for randomized patients, 85% and 89% for patient-choice registry patients, and 73% and 71% for the physician-directed registry patients. None of the differences was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that PCI is a relatively safe alternative to CABG for diabetic patients with medically refractory unstable angina who are at high risk for CABG.

Percutaneous coronary intervention versus coronary bypass graft surgery for patients with medically refractory myocardial ischemia and risk factors for adverse outcomes with bypass: The VA AWESOME multicenter registry: comparison with the randomized clinical trial.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to compare the three-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) in physician-directed and patient-choice registries with the Angina With Extremely Serious Operative Mortality Evaluation (AWESOME) randomized trial results. BACKGROUND: The AWESOME multicenter randomized trial and registry compared the long-term survival after PCI and CABG for the treatment of patients with medically refractory myocardial ischemia and at least one additional risk factor for adverse outcome with CABG. The randomized trial demonstrated comparable three-year survival. METHODS: Over a five-year period (1995 to 2000), 2,431 patients with medically refractory myocardial ischemia and at least one of five risk factors (prior heart surgery, myocardial infarction within seven days, left ventricular ejection fraction <0.35, age >70 years, intra-aortic balloon required to stabilize) were identified. By physician consensus, 1,650 patients formed a physician-directed registry assigned to CABG (692), PCI (651) or further medical therapy (307), and 781 were angiographically eligible for random allocation; 454 of these patients constitute the randomized trial, and the remaining 327 constitute a patient choice registry. Survival for CABG and PCI was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. RESULTS: The CABG and PCI 36-month survival rates for randomized patients were 79% and 80%, respectively. The CABG and PCI 36-month survival rates were both 76% for the physician-directed subgroup; comparable survival rates for the patient-choice subgroup were 80% and 89%, respectively. None of the global log-rank tests for survival demonstrated significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: Both registries support the randomized trial conclusion: PCI is an alternative to CABG for some medically refractory high-risk patients.