On the estimation of the effect of weight change on a health outcome using observational data, by utilising the target trial emulation framework.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: When studying the effect of weight change between two time points on a health outcome using observational data, two main problems arise initially (i) 'when is time zero?' and (ii) 'which confounders should we account for?' From the baseline date or the 1st follow-up (when the weight change can be measured)? Different methods have been previously used in the literature that carry different sources of bias and hence produce different results. METHODS: We utilised the target trial emulation framework and considered weight change as a hypothetical intervention. First, we used a simplified example from a hypothetical randomised trial where no modelling is required. Then we simulated data from an observational study where modelling is needed. We demonstrate the problems of each of these methods and suggest a strategy. INTERVENTIONS: weight loss/gain vs maintenance. RESULTS: The recommended method defines time-zero at enrolment, but adjustment for confounders (or exclusion of individuals based on levels of confounders) should be performed both at enrolment and the 1st follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of our suggested method [adjusting for (or excluding based on) confounders measured both at baseline and the 1st follow-up] can help researchers attenuate bias by avoiding some common pitfalls. Other methods that have been widely used in the past to estimate the effect of weight change on a health outcome are more biased. However, two issues remain (i) the exposure is not well-defined as there are different ways of changing weight (however we tried to reduce this problem by excluding individuals who develop a chronic disease); and (ii) immortal time bias, which may be small if the time to first follow up is short.

Seasonal exposure of carbon dioxide ice on the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the most abundant species in cometary nuclei, but because of its high volatility, CO2 ice is generally only found beneath the surface. We report the infrared spectroscopic identification of a CO2 ice-rich surface area located in the Anhur region of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Spectral modeling shows that about 0.1% of the 80- by 60-meter area is CO2 ice. This exposed ice was observed a short time after the comet exited local winter; following the increased illumination, the CO2 ice completely disappeared over about 3 weeks. We estimate the mass of the sublimated CO2 ice and the depth of the eroded surface layer. We interpret the presence of CO2 ice as the result of the extreme seasonal changes induced by the rotation and orbit of the comet.

Exposed water ice on the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko.

Although water vapour is the main species observed in the coma of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and water is the major constituent of cometary nuclei, limited evidence for exposed water-ice regions on the surface of the nucleus has been found so far. The absence of large regions of exposed water ice seems a common finding on the surfaces of many of the comets observed so far. The nucleus of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko appears to be fairly uniformly coated with dark, dehydrated, refractory and organic-rich material. Here we report the identification at infrared wavelengths of water ice on two debris falls in the Imhotep region of the nucleus. The ice has been exposed on the walls of elevated structures and at the base of the walls. A quantitative derivation of the abundance of ice in these regions indicates the presence of millimetre-sized pure water-ice grains, considerably larger than in all previous observations. Although micrometre-sized water-ice grains are the usual result of vapour recondensation in ice-free layers, the occurrence of millimetre-sized grains of pure ice as observed in the Imhotep debris falls is best explained by grain growth by vapour diffusion in ice-rich layers, or by sintering. As a consequence of these processes, the nucleus can develop an extended and complex coating in which the outer dehydrated crust is superimposed on layers enriched in water ice. The stratigraphy observed on 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is therefore the result of evolutionary processes affecting the uppermost metres of the nucleus and does not necessarily require a global layering to have occurred at the time of the comet's formation.

The diurnal cycle of water ice on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko.

Observations of cometary nuclei have revealed a very limited amount of surface water ice, which is insufficient to explain the observed water outgassing. This was clearly demonstrated on comet 9P/Tempel 1, where the dust jets (driven by volatiles) were only partially correlated with the exposed ice regions. The observations of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko have revealed that activity has a diurnal variation in intensity arising from changing insolation conditions. It was previously concluded that water vapour was generated in ice-rich subsurface layers with a transport mechanism linked to solar illumination, but that has not hitherto been observed. Periodic condensations of water vapour very close to, or on, the surface were suggested to explain short-lived outbursts seen near sunrise on comet 9P/Tempel 1. Here we report observations of water ice on the surface of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, appearing and disappearing in a cyclic pattern that follows local illumination conditions, providing a source of localized activity. This water cycle appears to be an important process in the evolution of the comet, leading to cyclical modification of the relative abundance of water ice on its surface.

Cometary science. The organic-rich surface of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko as seen by VIRTIS/Rosetta.

The VIRTIS (Visible, Infrared and Thermal Imaging Spectrometer) instrument on board the Rosetta spacecraft has provided evidence of carbon-bearing compounds on the nucleus of the comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The very low reflectance of the nucleus (normal albedo of 0.060 ± 0.003 at 0.55 micrometers), the spectral slopes in visible and infrared ranges (5 to 25 and 1.5 to 5% kÅ(-1)), and the broad absorption feature in the 2.9-to-3.6-micrometer range present across the entire illuminated surface are compatible with opaque minerals associated with nonvolatile organic macromolecular materials: a complex mixture of various types of carbon-hydrogen and/or oxygen-hydrogen chemical groups, with little contribution of nitrogen-hydrogen groups. In active areas, the changes in spectral slope and absorption feature width may suggest small amounts of water-ice. However, no ice-rich patches are observed, indicating a generally dehydrated nature for the surface currently illuminated by the Sun.

Propensity scores used for analysis of cluster randomized trials with selection bias: a simulation study.

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are often prone to selection bias despite randomization. Using a simulation study, we investigated the use of propensity score (PS) based methods in estimating treatment effects in CRTs with selection bias when the outcome is quantitative. Of four PS-based methods (adjustment on PS, inverse weighting, stratification, and optimal full matching method), three successfully corrected the bias, as did an approach using classical multivariable regression. However, they showed poorer statistical efficiency than classical methods, with higher standard error for the treatment effect, and type I error much smaller than the 5% nominal level.

Images of asteroid 21 Lutetia: a remnant planetesimal from the early Solar System.

Images obtained by the Optical, Spectroscopic, and Infrared Remote Imaging System (OSIRIS) cameras onboard the Rosetta spacecraft reveal that asteroid 21 Lutetia has a complex geology and one of the highest asteroid densities measured so far, 3.4 ± 0.3 grams per cubic centimeter. The north pole region is covered by a thick layer of regolith, which is seen to flow in major landslides associated with albedo variation. Its geologically complex surface, ancient surface age, and high density suggest that Lutetia is most likely a primordial planetesimal. This contrasts with smaller asteroids visited by previous spacecraft, which are probably shattered bodies, fragments of larger parents, or reaccumulated rubble piles.

Large changes in Pluto's atmosphere as revealed by recent stellar occultations.

Pluto's tenuous nitrogen atmosphere was first detected by the imprint left on the light curve of a star that was occulted by the planet in 1985 (ref. 1), and studied more extensively during a second occultation event in 1988 (refs 2-6). These events are, however, quite rare and Pluto's atmosphere remains poorly understood, as in particular the planet has not yet been visited by a spacecraft. Here we report data from the first occultations by Pluto since 1988. We find that, during the intervening 14 years, there seems to have been a doubling of the atmospheric pressure, a probable seasonal effect on Pluto.