Cardiovascular Disease Events in Adults with a History of State Care in Childhood: Pooling of Unpublished Results from 9 Cohort Studies.

Background: Individuals who were separated from their biological family and placed into the care of the state during childhood (out-of-home care) are more prone to developing selected physical and mental health problems in adulthood, however, their risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is uncertain. Accordingly, we pooled published and unpublished results from cohort studies of childhood care and adult CVD. Methods: We used two approaches to identifying relevant data on childhood care and adult CVD (PROSPERO registration CRD42021254665). First, to locate published studies, we searched PubMed (Medline) until November 2023. Second, with the aim of identifying unpublished studies with the potential to address the present research question, we scrutinised retrieved reviews of the impact of childhood state care on related adult health outcomes. All included studies were required to have prospective measurement of state care in childhood and a follow-up of CVD events in adulthood as the primary outcome (incident coronary heart disease and/or stroke). Collaborating investigators provided study-specific estimates which were aggregated using random-effects meta-analysis. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess individual study quality. Findings: Thirteen studies (2 published, 11 unpublished) met the inclusion criteria, and investigators from nine provided viable results, including updated analyses of the published studies. Studies comprised 611,601 individuals (301,129 women) from the US, UK, Sweden, Finland, and Australia. Relative to the unexposed, individuals with a care placement during childhood had a 50% greater risk of CVD in adulthood (summary rate ratio after basic adjustment [95% confidence interval]: 1.50 [1.22, 1.84]); range of study-specific estimates: 1.28 to 2.06; I2 = 69%, p = 0.001). This association was attenuated but persisted after multivariable adjustment for socioeconomic status in childhood (8 studies; 1.41 [1.15, 1.72]) and adulthood (9 studies, 1.28 [1.10, 1.50]). There was a suggestion of a stronger state care-CVD association in women. Interpretation: Our findings show that individuals with experience of state care in childhood have a moderately raised risk of CVD in adulthood. For timely prevention, clinicians and policy makers should be aware that people with a care history may need additional attention in risk factor management.

Improving cardiovascular risk prediction through machine learning modelling of irregularly repeated electronic health records.

Aims: Existing electronic health records (EHRs) often consist of abundant but irregular longitudinal measurements of risk factors. In this study, we aim to leverage such data to improve the risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) by applying machine learning (ML) algorithms, which can allow automatic screening of the population. Methods and results: A total of 215 744 Chinese adults aged between 40 and 79 without a history of cardiovascular disease were included (6081 cases) from an EHR-based longitudinal cohort study. To allow interpretability of the model, the predictors of demographic characteristics, medication treatment, and repeatedly measured records of lipids, glycaemia, obesity, blood pressure, and renal function were used. The primary outcome was ASCVD, defined as non-fatal acute myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal and non-fatal stroke. The eXtreme Gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression models were derived to predict the 5-year ASCVD risk. In the validation set, compared with the refitted Chinese guideline-recommended Cox model (i.e. the China-PAR), the XGBoost model had a significantly higher C-statistic of 0.792, (the differences in the C-statistics: 0.011, 0.006-0.017, P < 0.001), with similar results reported for LASSO regression (the differences in the C-statistics: 0.008, 0.005-0.011, P < 0.001). The XGBoost model demonstrated the best calibration performance (men: Dx = 0.598, P = 0.75; women: Dx = 1.867, P = 0.08). Moreover, the risk distribution of the ML algorithms differed from that of the conventional model. The net reclassification improvement rates of XGBoost and LASSO over the Cox model were 3.9% (1.4-6.4%) and 2.8% (0.7-4.9%), respectively. Conclusion: Machine learning algorithms with irregular, repeated real-world data could improve cardiovascular risk prediction. They demonstrated significantly better performance for reclassification to identify the high-risk population correctly.

Gender differences in self-harm and drinking behaviors among high school students in Beijing, China.

BACKGROUND: Self-harm and drinking are both serious problems in adolescents and many studies presented evidence of their association. However, gender differences in this association are seldom deeply discussed. Our study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of self-harm and explore its association with drinking behaviors by gender and investigate the extent to which the gender differences exist in the association between self-harm and drinking. METHODS: A total of 32,362 students in grades 7 to 12 in Beijing, China were anonymously surveyed and included in our study using two-stage, stratified probability proportion sampling. Self-harm, drinking behaviors and other basic information were obtained from an anonymous questionnaire. Demographic variables, self-harm and drinking behaviors were analyzed using the Chi-square test and the Gamma test between genders and the gender differences in this association were analyzed by Log-binomial regression. RESULTS: The total prevalence of self-harm was 13.7% with no significant gender difference (χ2 =0.352, P = 0.553). The prevalence of self-harm in girls decreased with age (G = -0.163, P < 0.001). Self-harm was associated with drinking behaviors in both boys and girls. The Log-binomial regression demonstrated that girls in the 16-19 years old group were at lower risk of self-harm than girls in the 12-15 years old group while this association was weaker in boys (1.493 vs 1.128). The higher OR for self-harm was found among girls with early drinking experiences compared with boys (2.565 vs 1.863). Girls who had previously drunk (i.e. drunk at least once) (2.211 vs 1.636), were currently drinking (3.400 vs 2.122) and performed binge drinking (6.357 vs 3.924) were at greater risk of self-harm than boys. CONCLUSION: Among high school students, self-harm has a significant positive association with drinking and girls with drinking behaviors are at higher risk of suffering self-harm. Identifying adolescents' drinking behaviors is of vital importance to self-harm prevention and special attention should be focused on younger girls.

Relation between physical fitness and frequency of breakfast consumption among Chinese Han college students / 中国学校卫生

Objective@#To examine the relation between physical fitness and frequency of having breakfast among Chinese Han college students so as to provide proper intervention and theoretical basis for improving college students’ physical fitness.@*Methods@#The data from 2014 Chinese National Survey on Students’ Constitution and Health (CNSSCH) was used. The data of 47 172 Han students were calculated, the chi-square test wasused to compare the differences of the physical fitness passing rate in different subgroups of college students. The Log-binomial model was established to assess the relation between physical fitness and breakfast consumption.@*Results@#The unqualified rate of physical fitness was 22.8%. Boys(24.7%), urban students (25.7%), and those who exercised less than one hour per day (23.3%) had lower physical fitness passing rates than girls(20.9%), rural students (19.9%) and those who exercised more than one hour per day (20.3%)respectively(χ2=101.38, 223.33, 32.20,P<0.01). The unqualified rate of physical fitness increased by age. The unqualified rate of physical fitness in eastern, central and western regions was 21.2%, 21.7% and 25.1% respectively. The unqualified rate of physical fitness for those with normal nutritional status (18.2%) was significantly lower than those who were underweight (26.0%) or overweight/obese(42.6%)(χ2=1 660.50, P<0.01). In this study, 53.2% of college students had breakfast every day,unqualified rate of physical fitness was higher among students with less regular consumption of breakfast(χ2=393.50, P<0.01). The Log-binomial model showed that the college students who had 3-5 breakfasts(PR=1.16, 95%CI=1.11-1.20), 1-2 breakfasts(PR=1.34, 95%CI=1.28-1.40), never had breakfast (PR=1.43, 95%CI=1.32-1.53) per week had higher physical fitness failure rates than those who had breakfast every day.@*Conclusion@#There is a significant association between physical fitness and breakfast consumption among college students. Developing the good habit of having breakfast is not only the component of healthy lifestyle but also an indispensable part to the improvement of college students’ physical fitness.