Construction and validation of a machine learning model for the diagnosis of juvenile idiopathic arthritis based on fecal microbiota.

Purpose: Human gut microbiota has been shown to be significantly associated with various inflammatory diseases. Therefore, this study aimed to develop an excellent auxiliary tool for the diagnosis of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) based on fecal microbial biomarkers. Method: The fecal metagenomic sequencing data associated with JIA were extracted from NCBI, and the sequencing data were transformed into the relative abundance of microorganisms by professional data cleaning (KneadData, Trimmomatic and Bowtie2) and comparison software (Kraken2 and Bracken). After that, the fecal microbes with high abundance were extracted for subsequent analysis. The extracted fecal microbes were further screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, and the selected fecal microbe biomarkers were used for model training. In this study, we constructed six different machine learning (ML) models, and then selected the best model for constructing a JIA diagnostic tool by comparing the performance of the models based on a combined consideration of area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, specificity, F1 score, calibration curves and clinical decision curves. In addition, to further explain the model, Permutation Importance analysis and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) were performed to understand the contribution of each biomarker in the prediction process. Result: A total of 231 individuals were included in this study, including 203 JIA patients and Non-JIA individuals. In the analysis of diversity at the genus level, the alpha diversity represented by Shannon value was not significantly different between the two groups, while the belt diversity was slightly different. After selection by LASSO regression, 10 fecal microbe biomarkers were selected for model training. By comparing six different models, the XGB model showed the best performance, which average AUC, accuracy and F1 score were 0.976, 0.914 and 0.952, respectively, thus being used to construct the final JIA diagnosis model. Conclusion: A JIA diagnosis model based on XGB algorithm was constructed with excellent performance, which may assist physicians in early detection of JIA patients and improve the prognosis of JIA patients.

Metabolism and senescence in the immune microenvironment of osteosarcoma: focus on new therapeutic strategies.

Osteosarcoma is a highly aggressive and metastatic malignant tumor. It has the highest incidence of all malignant bone tumors and is one of the most common solid tumors in children and adolescents. Osteosarcoma tissues are often richly infiltrated with inflammatory cells, including tumor-associated macrophages, lymphocytes, and dendritic cells, forming a complex immune microenvironment. The expression of immune checkpoint molecules is also high in osteosarcoma tissues, which may be involved in the mechanism of anti-tumor immune escape. Metabolism and senescence are closely related to the immune microenvironment, and disturbances in metabolism and senescence may have important effects on the immune microenvironment, thereby affecting immune cell function and immune responses. Metabolic modulation and anti-senescence therapy are gaining the attention of researchers as emerging immunotherapeutic strategies for tumors. Through an in-depth study of the interconnection of metabolism and anti- senescence in the tumor immune microenvironment and its regulatory mechanism on immune cell function and immune response, more precise therapeutic strategies can be developed. Combined with the screening and application of biomarkers, personalized treatment can be achieved to improve therapeutic efficacy and provide a scientific basis for clinical decision-making. Metabolic modulation and anti- senescence therapy can also be combined with other immunotherapy approaches, such as immune checkpoint inhibitors and tumor vaccines, to form a multi-level and multi-dimensional immunotherapy strategy, thus further enhancing the effect of immunotherapy. Multidisciplinary cooperation and integrated treatment can optimize the treatment plan and maximize the survival rate and quality of life of patients. Future research and clinical practice will further advance this field, promising more effective treatment options for patients with osteosarcoma. In this review, we reviewed metabolic and senescence characteristics in the immune microenvironment of osteosarcoma and related immunotherapies, and provide a reference for development of more personalized and effective therapeutic strategies.

Machine learning for the prediction of postoperative nosocomial pulmonary infection in patients with spinal cord injury.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to establish the best prediction model for postoperative nosocomial pulmonary infection through machine learning (ML) and assist physicians to make accurate diagnosis and treatment decisions. METHODS: Patients with spinal cord injury (SCI) who admitted to a general hospital between July 2014 and April 2022 were included in this study. The data were segmented according to the ratio of seven to three, 70% were randomly selected to train the model, and the other 30% were used for testing. We used LASSO regression to screen the variables, and the selected variables were used in the construction of six different ML models. Shapley additive explanations and permutation importance were used to explain the output of the ML models. Finally, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used as the evaluation index of the model. RESULTS: A total of 870 patients were enrolled in this study, of whom 98 (11.26%) developed pulmonary infection. Seven variables were used for ML model construction and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among these variables, age, ASIA scale and tracheotomy were found to be the independent risk factors for postoperative nosocomial pulmonary infection in SCI patients. Meanwhile, the prediction model based on RF algorithm performed best in the training and test sets. (AUC = 0.721, accuracy = 0.664, sensitivity = 0.694, specificity = 0.656). CONCLUSION: Age, ASIA scale and tracheotomy were the independent risk factors of postoperative nosocomial pulmonary infection in SCI. The prediction model based on RF algorithm had the best performance.

A practical dynamic nomogram model for predicting bone metastasis in patients with thyroid cancer.

Purpose: The aim of this study was to established a dynamic nomogram for assessing the risk of bone metastasis in patients with thyroid cancer (TC) and assist physicians to make accurate clinical decisions. Methods: The clinical data of patients with TC admitted to the First Affiliated hospital of Nanchang University from January 2006 to November 2016 were included in this study. Demographic and clinicopathological parameters of all patients at primary diagnosis were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to build a predictive model incorporating parameters. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were evaluated using the C-index, ROC curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was evaluated using the bootstrapping method. Results: A total of 565 patients were enrolled in this study, of whom 25 (4.21%) developed bone metastases. Based on logistic regression analysis, age (OR=1.040, P=0.019), hemoglobin (HB) (OR=0.947, P<0.001) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (OR=1.006, P=0.002) levels were used to construct the nomogram. The model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.825 and good calibration. A C-index value of 0.815 was achieved on interval validation analysis. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful when intervention was decided at a bone metastases possibility threshold of 1%. Conclusions: This dynamic nomogram, with relatively good accuracy, incorporating age, HB, and ALP, could be conveniently used to facilitate the prediction of bone metastasis risk in patients with TC.

Using Preoperative and Intraoperative Factors to Predict the Risk of Surgical Site Infections After Lumbar Spinal Surgery: A Machine Learning-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model based on machine learning to predict surgical site infection (SSI) risk in patients after lumbar spinal surgery (LSS). METHODS: Patients who developed postoperative SSI after LSS in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University between December 2010 and December 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Preoperative and intraoperative variables, including age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index, previous spinal surgery history, surgical duration, number of fused segments, blood loss, and surgical procedure were analyzed. Six machine learning algorithms-logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and extreme gradient boosting-were used to build prediction models. The performance of the models was evaluated using the area under the curve, accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and F1 score. A web predictor was developed based on the best-performing model. RESULTS: The study included 288 patients who underwent LSS, of whom 144 developed SSI and 144 did not develop SSI. The extreme gradient boosting model offers the best predictive performance among these 6 models (area under the curve = 0.923, accuracy = 0.860, precision = 0.900, sensitivity = 0.834, F1 score = 0.864). An extreme gradient boosting model-based web predictor was developed to predict SSI in patients after LSS. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a machine learning model and a web predictor for predicting SSI in patients after LSS, which may help clinicians screen high-risk patients, provide personalized treatment, and reduce the incidence of SSI after LSS.

Prediction of bone metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer based on machine learning.

Objective: The purpose of this paper was to develop a machine learning algorithm with good performance in predicting bone metastasis (BM) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and establish a simple web predictor based on the algorithm. Methods: Patients who diagnosed with NSCLC between 2010 and 2018 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were involved. To increase the extensibility of the research, data of patients who first diagnosed with NSCLC at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University between January 2007 and December 2016 were also included in this study. Independent risk factors for BM in NSCLC were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. At this basis, we chose six commonly machine learning algorithms to build predictive models, including Logistic Regression (LR), Decision tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Naive Bayes classifiers (NBC) and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB). Then, the best model was identified to build the web-predictor for predicting BM of NSCLC patients. Finally, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were used to evaluate the performance of these models. Results: A total of 50581 NSCLC patients were included in this study, and 5087(10.06%) of them developed BM. The sex, grade, laterality, histology, T stage, N stage, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for NSCLC. Of these six models, the machine learning model built by the XGB algorithm performed best in both internal and external data setting validation, with AUC scores of 0.808 and 0.841, respectively. Then, the XGB algorithm was used to build a web predictor of BM from NSCLC. Conclusion: This study developed a web predictor based XGB algorithm for predicting the risk of BM in NSCLC patients, which may assist doctors for clinical decision making.