Physical Activity among Rural Residents in Eastern, Central, and Western Provinces of China: A Cross-Sectional Survey.

Physical activity (PA) in which physical exercise (PE) is an important component is probably the most important intervention for preventing noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). However, few studies on PA and PE of rural residents in China were reported. This study conducted the first population-based cross-sectional survey in three provinces of China in 2021 that examined both PA and PE as well as the associated factors of rural residents. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short Form (IPAQ-S) was used, and a total of 3780 rural residents were surveyed. The result showed that 22.2% of the rural residents were physical inactivity and rural residents reporting practice of PE was 54.4%. Binary logistic regression analyses showed that being female, people aged between 15 to 34 years or 60 years old and above, employees of governmental departments/retirees, school students, the unemployed, and people with NCDs were risk factors of PA while ethnic minority groups, smoking, and alcohol consumption were risk factors of PE. Health promotion programme aiming at increasing people's PA in rural China is urgently needed, and it should focus on the population groups of the female, people aged 60 years and above, school students, the unemployed, and people with NCDs.

[Construction of a Prognostic Model of Multiple Myeloma Based on Metabolism-Related Genes].

OBJECTIVE: To screen the prognostic biomarkers of metabolic genes in patients with multiple myeloma (MM), and construct a prognostic model of metabolic genes. METHODS: The histological database related to MM patients was searched. Data from MM patients and healthy controls with complete clinical information were selected for analysis.The second generation sequencing data and clinical information of bone marrow tissue of MM patients and healthy controls were collected from human protein atlas (HPA) and multiple myeloma research foundation (MMRF) databases. The gene set of metabolism-related pathways was extracted from Molecular Signatures Database (MSigDB) by Perl language. The biomarkers related to MM metabolism were screened by difference analysis, univariate Cox risk regression analysis and LASSO regression analysis, and the risk prognostic model and Nomogram were constructed. Risk curve and survival curve were used to verify the grouping effect of the model. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used to study the difference of biological pathway enrichment between high risk group and low risk group. Multivariate Cox risk regression analysis was used to verify the independent prognostic ability of risk score. RESULTS: A total of 8 mRNAs which were significantly related to the survival and prognosis of MM patients were obtained (P<0.01). As molecular markers, MM patients could be divided into high-risk group and low-risk group. Survival curve and risk curve showed that the overall survival time of patients in the low-risk group was significantly better than that in the high risk group (P<0.001). GSEA results showed that signal pathways related to basic metabolism, cell differentiation and cell cycle were significantly enriched in the high-risk group, while ribosome and N polysaccharide biosynthesis signaling pathway were more enriched in the low-risk group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the risk score composed of the eight metabolism-related genes could be used as an independent risk factor for the prognosis of MM patients, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) showed that the molecular signatures of metabolism-related genes had the best predictive effect. CONCLUSION: Metabolism-related pathways play an important role in the pathogenesis and prognosis of patients with MM. The clinical significance of the risk assessment model for patients with MM constructed based on eight metabolism-related core genes needs to be confirmed by further clinical studies.

Detection of fluoroquinolone and sulfonamide residues in poultry eggs in Kunming city, southwest China.

Antibiotic residues contained in poultry eggs pose threat to human health. However, the classes and concentrations of antibiotics in poultry egg in southwestern China is unknown due to insufficient monitoring and research. A total of 513 egg samples were collected from supermarkets and farm markets in Kunming city in 2020 and the levels of 7 antibiotics were analyzed using ultra high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS) method. The linear correlation coefficients were above 0.990 for all antibiotics tested. The limits of detection and limits of quantification in poultry eggs were 0.002 to 0.010 µg/g and 0.007 to 0.033 µg/g, respectively. The average recoveries of the 7 analytes from poultry egg samples were 80.00 to 128.01%, with relative standard deviations of less than 13.97%. A total of 93 (18.13%) samples tested positive for antibiotics, with the highest concentration being 2.48 µg/g. The concentration range of ofloxacin, danofloxacin, difloxacin, sulfadimethoxine, sulfamonomethoxine, sulfamethoxypyridazine, and sulfamethoxazole in poultry eggs was 0.01 to 0.37 µg/g, 0.06 to 0.48 µg/g, 0.05 to 0.29 µg/g, 0.03 to 0.16 µg/g, 0.06 to 1.00 µg/g, 0.05 to 0.37, and 0.07 to 2.48 µg/g, respectively. Sulfamonomethoxine was detected from hen eggs with the highest concentration level at 1.00 µg/g. Sulfamethoxazole was detected with the highest concentration level from both duck and quail eggs, at 1.87 and 2.48 µg/g, respectively. The antibiotic with the highest residue level in pheasant eggs was danofloxacin, which was 0.37 µg/g. Sulfamethoxypyridazine was identified in 30 samples with the highest positive rate of 5.85%, sulfadimethoxine was identified in 3 samples with the lowest positive rate of 0.58%. We observed that 7 targeted antibiotic residues in quail eggs and 3 targeted antibiotic residues in pheasant eggs. We also found that there were antibiotic residues in free-range hen eggs and the concentration was not low. The antibiotic with the highest residue level in free-range eggs was sulfamonomethoxine, which was 1.00 µg/g. These findings suggest that continual antibiotic residue monitoring of poultry eggs is essential in China.

Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study.

Objective: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables. Method: A seasonal Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (R t ). Results: The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of R t  = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). R t was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with R t . Conclusion: A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.

The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.

BACKGROUND: Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China. METHODS: We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups. RESULTS: A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.

Feasibility of controlling hepatitis E in Jiangsu Province, China: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E, an acute zoonotic disease caused by the hepatitis E virus (HEV), has a relatively high burden in developing countries. The current research model on hepatitis E mainly uses experimental animal models (such as pigs, chickens, and rabbits) to explain the transmission of HEV. Few studies have developed a multi-host and multi-route transmission dynamic model (MHMRTDM) to explore the transmission feature of HEV. Hence, this study aimed to explore its transmission and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention using the dataset of Jiangsu Province. METHODS: We developed a dataset comprising all reported HEV cases in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2018. The MHMRTDM was developed according to the natural history of HEV cases among humans and pigs and the multi-transmission routes such as person-to-person, pig-to-person, and environment-to-person. We estimated the key parameter of the transmission using the principle of least root mean square to fit the curve of the MHMRTDM to the reported data. We developed models with single or combined countermeasures to assess the effectiveness of interventions, which include vaccination, shortening the infectious period, and cutting transmission routes. The indicator, total attack rate (TAR), was adopted to assess the effectiveness. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2018, 44 923 hepatitis E cases were reported in Jiangsu Province. The model fits the data well (R2 = 0.655, P < 0.001). The incidence of the disease in Jiangsu Province and its cities peaks are around March; however, transmissibility of the disease peaks in December and January. The model showed that the most effective intervention was interrupting the pig-to-person route during the incidence trough of September, thereby reducing the TAR by 98.11%, followed by vaccination (reducing the TAR by 76.25% when the vaccination coefficient is 100%) and shortening the infectious period (reducing the TAR by 50.05% when the infectious period is shortened to 15 days). CONCLUSIONS: HEV could be controlled by interrupting the pig-to-person route, shortening the infectious period, and vaccination. Among these interventions, the most effective was interrupting the pig-to-person route.

Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy. METHODS: We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f). RESULTS: Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%). CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.