RESUMO
Exploring vehicle emission trends within and outside the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region during a long period was scientific and practical, for the economic rapid unbalanced development, continuous implements of severe reducing vehicle emissions measures in Guangdong province. Multi-year inventories of vehicle emissions from 1994 to 2014 were estimated based on the emissions factors of different emissions standards and vehicle kilometers travelled for all types of vehicles. The trends and characteristics of the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx), fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and course particulate matter (PM10) were then analyzed within and outside the PRD region. In the above two regions, the total amount of the five pollutant emissions varied greatly with gross domestic product (GDP) from 1994 to 2014, showing the overall performance of the first increasing up to 1.6-3.0 times before 2002, and then decreasing. However, the five pollutant emissions in the PRD region were 2.4-3.3 times more than in the non-PRD region. In both regions, light passenger cars and motorcycles were the main contributors to CO and VOC emissions (65%-80%), and heavy duty trucks and passenger cars were the main contributors to NOx, PM2.5 and PM10 emissions (around 42%-50%). Moreover, compared to CO and VOCs emissions, the changes in the contribution of every vehicles type to NOx, PM2.5 and PM10 emissions were more obvious, and coincided with the implementation time of emission and fuel standards in the non-PRD region. It was noted that CO and VOC emission variations was correlated closely with the population of yellow-label light passenger cars and motorcycles, whereas those of NOx and PM2.5 was coincided that of yellow-label heavy passenger cars and trucks.
RESUMO
Vehicle emissions have become one of the key factors affecting the urban air quality and climate change in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, so it is important to design policies of emission reduction based on quantitative Co-benefits for air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG). Emissions of air pollutants and GHG by 2020 was predicted firstly based on the no-control scenario, and five vehicle emissions reduction scenarios were designed in view of the economy, technology and policy, whose emissions reduction were calculated. Then Co-benefits between air pollutants and GHG were quantitatively analyzed by the methods of coordinate system and cross-elasticity. Results show that the emissions reduction effects and the Co-benefits of different measures vary greatly in 2015-2020. If no control scheme was applied, most air pollutants and GHG would increase substantially by 20-64% by 2020, with the exception of CO, VOC and PM2.5. Different control measures had different reduction effects for single air pollutant and GHG. The worst reduction measure was Eliminating Motorcycles with average reducing rate 0.09% for air pollutants and GHG, while the rate from Updated Emission Standard was 41.74%. Eliminating Yellow-label Vehicle scenario had an obvious reduction effect for every single pollutant in the earlier years, but Co-benefits would descent to zero in later by 2020. From the perspective of emission reductions and co-control effect, Updated Emission Standard scenario was best for reducing air pollutants and GHG substantially (tanα=1.43 and Els=1.77).
