RESUMO
Background: The geriatric oncology population tends to be complex because of multimorbidity, functional and cognitive decline, malnutrition and social frailty. Prognostic indices for predicting survival of elderly cancer patients to guide treatment remain scarce. A nomogram based on all domains of the geriatric assessment was previously developed at the National Cancer Centre Singapore (NCCS) to predict overall survival (OS) in elderly cancer patients. This nomogram comprised of six variables (age, eastern cooperative oncology group performance status, disease stage, geriatric depression scale (GDS), DETERMINE nutritional index and serum albumin). Objectives: To externally validate the NCCS prognostic nomogram. Design: This is a prospective cohort study. Methods: The nomogram was developed based on a training cohort of 249 patients aged ⩾70 years who attended the NCCS outpatient geriatric oncology clinic between May 2007 and November 2010. External validation of the nomogram using the Royston and Altman approach was carried out on an independent testing cohort of 252 patients from the same clinic between July 2015 and June 2017. Model misspecification, discrimination and calibration were assessed. Results: Median OS of the testing cohort was 3.1 years, which was significantly higher than the corresponding 1.0 year for the training cohort (log-rank p < 0.001). The nomogram achieved a high level of discrimination in the testing cohort (0.7112), comparable to the training cohort (0.7108). Predicted death probabilities were generally well calibrated with the observed death probabilities, as the joint test of calibration-in-the-large estimates at year 1, 2 and 3 from zeros and calibration slope from one was insignificant with p = 0.432. There were model misspecifications in GDS and serum albumin. Conclusion: This study externally validated the prognostic nomogram in an independent cohort of geriatric oncology patients. This supports the use of this nomogram in clinical practice.
RESUMO
Pancreatic cancer remains a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Treatment outcomes remain largely dismal despite significant medical advancements. This lends urgency to the need to understand its risk factors in order to guide early detection and improve outcomes. There are both modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors, the more established of such being that of age, smoking, obesity, diabetes mellitus (DM), alcohol and certain genetic predisposition syndromes with underlying germline mutations. Some genetic predisposition syndromes such as BRCA1/2, PALB2, ATM, and CDKN2A are well-established, arising from germline mutations that result in carcinogenesis through mechanisms such as cell injury, dysregulation of cell growth, dysfunctional DNA repair, and disruption of cell mobility and adhesion. There is also a significant proportion of familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) for which the underlying predisposing genetic mechanism is not yet understood. Nuances have emerged in the ethnic and geographical differences of pancreatic cancer predisposition, and these may be attributed to differences in lifestyle, standard of living, socioeconomic factors, and genetics. This review describes in detail the factors contributing to pancreatic cancer with focus on ethnic and geographical differences and hereditary genetic syndromes. Greater insight into the interplay of these factors can guide clinicians and healthcare authorities in addressing modifiable risk factors, implementing measures for early detection in high-risk individuals, initiating early treatment of pancreatic cancer, and directing future research towards existing knowledge deficits, in order to improve survival outcomes.
